Chapter 8 Assessments PDF

Chapter 8 Assessments This chapter provides an overview of assessment within the operations process. Next, it describes the steps of the assessment process and a discussion on assessment planning. The chapter concludes with a section on...

Chapter 8 Assessments This chapter provides an overview of assessment within the operations process. Next, it describes the steps of the assessment process and a discussion on assessment planning. The chapter concludes with a section on assessment within the military decision-making process (MDMP). (See ADP 5-0 for the fundamentals of assessment. See ATP 5-0.3 for assessment techniques and assessment planning examples.) ASSESSMENT AND THE OPERATIONS PROCESS 8-1. Assessment is the determination of the progress toward accomplishing a task, creating a condition, or achieving an objective (JP 3-0). This involves the comparison of outcomes with actual events to determine progress toward attaining the desired end state. It requires the continuous monitoring and evaluation of the operational environment (OE) to determine what changes might affect the conduct of the operation. 8-2. Assessment precedes and guides the other activities of the operations process as shown in figure 8-1 on page 8-2. The focus of assessment differs during planning, preparation, and execution. During planning, assessment focuses on gathering information to understand the current situation, the framed problem, and outputs of Army design methodology (ADM) to develop an assessment plan. During preparation, assessment focuses on monitoring changes in the situation and on evaluating the progress of readiness to execute the operation. Assessment during execution involves a deliberate comparison of forecasted outcomes to actual events, using indicators to judge progress toward attaining desired end state conditions. During execution, assessments help commanders adjust plans based on changes in the situation, when the operation is complete, and when to transition into the next cycle of the operations process. 0D\ FM 5-0 8-1 Chapter 8 Figure 8-1. The operations process 8-3. The situation and type of operations affect the characteristics of assessment. During large-scale combat, assessments tend to be rapid, focused on the destruction of enemy units, terrain gained or lost, objectives achieved, and the status of friendly combat power. In other situations, such as counter insurgency operations, assessments are less tangible. Assessing the level of security in an area or the population’s support for the government is challenging. Identifying what and how to assess requires significant effort from the commander and staff. Assessment consists of— z Monitoring the current situation to collect relevant information. z Evaluating progress toward attaining end state conditions, achieving objectives, and performing tasks. z Recommending or directing action for improvement. 8-4. Assessment occurs in varying degrees at all echelons. The situation and echelon dictate the focus and methods leaders use to assess. Everyone conducts assessments. While commanders have staffs helping them assess, individual Soldiers assess whether or not to continue to fight. Leaders assess their Soldier’s “morale.” Normally, commanders plan for and assess those specific operations or tasks that they were directed to accomplish. This properly focuses collection and assessment at each echelon, reduces redundancy, and enhances the efficiency of the overall assessment process. FORMAL ASSESSMENTS 8-5. For units with a staff, assessment becomes more formal at each higher echelon. The availability of dedicated resources (including staff officer expertise and time available) to conduct assessments proportionally increase from battalion to brigade, division, corps, and theater army. Echelons above brigade include a dedicated core group of analysts. This group typically specializes in operations research and 8-2 FM 5-0 0D\  Assessments systems analysis, developing formal assessment plans, and various assessment products. The assessment plan is typically developed during the MDMP with an output of Annex M in a plan or order. The plan is continuously reviewed and updated in various boards and working groups, such as the assessment working group Assessment at brigade and battalion echelons is usually less formal than at higher echelons, often relying on direct observations and the judgment of commanders and their staffs. (See FM 6-0 for further discussion of boards and working groups.) INFORMAL ASSESSMENTS 8-6. For units without a staff or with a limited staff, assessments are mostly informal. An informal assessment means not being informed by dedicated assessment staff or collection assets as much as they are from things like personal observation, running estimates, operations reporting, and decision-making tools. All of these are things which have a purpose other than to assess performance or effects, but they still inform the leader’s situational understanding of operational performance or the effects generated. 8-7. As an example, small-unit leaders focus on assessing their unit’s readiness—personnel, equipment, supplies, and morale—and their unit’s ability to perform assigned tasks through observation, knowledge, and experience. Through this informal assessment leaders determine whether the unit has attained task proficiency. If those tasks have not produced the desired results, leaders explore why they have not and consider what improvements could be made for unit operations which are then validated using formal assessments. As they assess and learn, small units change their tactics, techniques, and procedures based on their experiences. 8-8. Commanders and operations officers may routinely perform multiple informal assessments throughout the course of an operation to confirm or deny assumptions, observe the progress of subordinate units, and make judgement calls based on their previous experiences. These observations often lead to the decision to make changes in the plan based the observed changes in the situation. These kinds of assessments can be performed due to reoccurring situations or as a matter of knowledge and expertise, and they do not require a significant amount of resources. In this way, even the lowest echelons in the Army follow the assessment process. ASSESSMENT PROCESS 8-9. Just like the operations they support, there is not a prescribed doctrinal checklist for conducting assessment. Every situation has its own distinctive challenges, which makes every assessment unique. The following steps help guide the development of an effective assessment plan and the assessment during preparation and execution of the operation: z Step 1 - Develop an assessment approach (planning). z Step 2 - Develop an assessment plan (planning). z Step 3 - Collect information and intelligence (preparation and execution). z Step 4 - Analyze information and intelligence (preparation and execution). z Step 5 - Communicate feedback and recommendations (preparation and execution). z Step 6 - Adapt plans or operations (planning and execution). STEP 1 - DEVELOP THE ASSESSMENT APPROACH 8-10. Assessment begins in planning, as the commander identifies the operation’s end state, operational approach, and associated objectives and tasks. Concurrently, the staff begins to develop an assessment approach by identifying information requirements needed to monitor and analyze conditions associated with attaining the operation’ end state, achieving objectives, and performing tasks. In doing so, the staff tries to answer the following questions: z How will we know we are achieving commander’s intent and meeting intermediate objectives? z What information do we need? z Who is best postured to provide that information? 0D\ FM 5-0 8-3 Chapter 8 8-11. If a higher echelon headquarters assessment plan exists, the staff aligns applicable elements of that assessment plan to the plan they are developing. The assessment approach becomes the framework for the assessment plan, and it will continue to mature through plan development. The assessment approach should identify the information and intelligence needed to assess progress and inform decision making for more effective operations. STEP 2 - DEVELOP THE ASSESSMENT PLAN 8-12. This step overlaps step 1 during the identification of the objectives and effects. The assessment plan focuses appropriate monitoring and collection of necessary information and intelligence to inform decision making throughout execution. The assessment plan should link objectives, desired effects, and tasks to observable key indicators. The assessment plan can be developed using the operational approach as a baseline to identify lines of effort or lines of operation that link directly to objectives and the desired end state. 8-13. The assessment plan should include required information oversight responsibilities to gather, process, exploit, analyze, integrate, disseminate, classify, and archive the required information. Developing the assessment plan is a whole-of-staff effort, and it should include other key stakeholders to better shape the effort. The assessment plan should identify staff or subordinate organizations to monitor, collect, analyze information, and develop recommendations and assessment products as required. Assessment planning is discussed in detail in paragraphs 8-19 through 8-32. STEP 3 - COLLECT INFORMATION AND INTELLIGENCE 8-14. Staffs collect relevant information throughout planning, preparing, and executing. They refine and adapt information requirements as an operation progresses. Staffs transmit information during execution through battle rhythm events and reports, such as battle update assessments and commander’s updates. For example, staffs continually provide updates about the situation, including information about the enemy, terrain, civil considerations, and friendly forces. Other sections collect information related to the other mission and operational variables. STEP 4 - ANALYZE INFORMATION AND INTELLIGENCE 8-15. Analysis seeks to identify positive or negative movement toward achieving objectives or attaining end-state conditions most effectively. Accurate analysis seeks to identify trends and changes that significantly impact the operation. Based on this analysis, the staff determines the effects on forces and resource allocation, determines whether forces have achieved their objectives, or realizes that a decision point has emerged. 8-16. Recommendations generated by staff analyses regarding achievement of the objective or attainment of the desired end-state conditions enable the staff to develop recommendations for consideration. Recommendations can— z Update, change, add, or remove critical assumptions. z Transition between phases. z Execute branches or sequels. z Change resource allocation. z Adjust objectives or end-state conditions. z Change or add tasks to subordinate units. z Adjust priorities. z Change priorities of effort. z Change command relationships. z Change task organizations. z Adjust decision points. z Refine or adapt the assessment plan. 8-4 FM 5-0 0D\  Assessments STEP 5 - COMMUNICATE FEEDBACK AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8-17. Assessment products contain recommendations for the commander based on the commander’s guidance. Regardless of quality and effort, the assessment process is limited if the communication of its results is deficient or inconsistent with the commander’s personal style of assimilating information and making decisions. Additionally, there may be a requirement to provide input to higher echelon headquarters’ assessments in which the requirements and feedback could be within a different construct. STEP 6 - ADAPT PLANS OR OPERATIONS 8-18. Upon receiving the staff’s assessments, commanders direct changes or provide additional guidance that dictate modifications to operations. Staffs capture the commander’s decisions and guidance in fragmentary orders (FRAGORDs) that direct forces to take necessary actions. As the operation evolves, the assessment plan evolves as well. ASSESSMENT PLANNING 8-19. Assessment planning and the development of an assessment plan correlate to the work done in the first two steps of the assessment process: develop the assessment approach and develop the assessment plan. Develop the assessment approach (step one of the assessment process) makes inputs to initial decisions about the organization of the assessment effort, the relationship of assessors to the rest of the staff, the integration of assessment working groups into the battle rhythm, and the sort of information that is gathered and analyzed to improve the staff’s understanding of an OE. 8-20. Develop the assessment plan is step two of the assessment process. It produces outcomes to refine, formalize, and communicate these decisions throughout the organization through written standard operating procedures (SOPs), an assessment annex (Annex M of an order or plan), collection matrices, or other documents. The assessment plan should match the logic of the operational plan. For example, if the operation plan (OPLAN) or operation order (OPORD) specifies lines of operation or lines of effort, then an assessment plan should be based on the lines of operation or lines of effort. Paragraphs 8-21 through 8-32 address steps to develop an assessment plan. During planning, the assessment working group develops an assessment plan using six steps: z Step 1-Gather tools and assessment data. z Step 2-Understand current and desired conditions. z Step 3-Develop an assessment framework. z Step 4-Develop the collection plan. z Step 5-Assign responsibilities for conducting analysis and generating recommendations. z Step 6-Identify feedback mechanisms. STEP 1 - GATHER TOOLS AND ASSESSMENT DATA 8-21. Planning begins with receipt of mission. The receipt of mission alerts the staffs to begin updating their running estimates and gathering the tools necessary for mission analysis and continued planning. Specific tools and information gathered regarding assessment include, but are not limited to— z The higher echelon headquarters’ plan or order, including the assessment annex if available. z If relieving a unit, any current assessments and assessment products. z Relevant assessment products (classified or open-source) produced by civilian and military organizations. z The identification of potential data sources, including academic institutions and civilian subject matter experts. STEP 2 - UNDERSTAND CURRENT AND DESIRED CONDITIONS 8-22. Assessment is about improving effectiveness and measuring progress toward the desired end state. To do this, commanders and staffs compare current conditions in the area of operations (AO) against 0D\ FM 5-0 8-5 Chapter 8 desired conditions. ADM and the MDMP help commanders and staffs develop an understanding of the current situation and end state condition. 8-23. Early in planning, commanders issue their initial commander’s intent, planning guidance, and commander’s critical information requirements (CCIRs). The end state in the initial commander’s intent describes the desired conditions the commander wants to achieve. The staff element responsible for the assessment plan identifies each specific desired end state condition mentioned in the commander’s intent. These specific desired end state conditions focus the overall assessment of the operation. Understanding current conditions and desired end state conditions forms the basis for building the assessment framework. STEP 3 - DEVELOP AN ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK 8-24. All plans and orders have a general logic. This logic links tasks to subordinate units to the achievement of objectives, and the achievement of objectives to attainment of the operation’s end state. An assessment framework incorporates the logic of the plan and uses indicators, including measures of effectiveness (MOEs) and measures of performance (MOPs), as tools to determine progress toward attaining desired end state conditions. 8-25. An indicator is in the context of assessment, a specific piece of information that infers the condition, state, or existence of something, and provides a reliable means to ascertain performance or effectiveness (JP 5-0). Ideally, the resources and capabilities to collect on each indicator would be available. Planners should develop and recommend priorities to inform the decision making for the allocation of limited resources and capabilities. Indicators should be— z Relevant—bear a direct relationship to a task, effect, object, or end state condition. z Observable—collectable so that changes can be detected and measured or evaluated. z Responsive—signify changes in the OE in time to enable effective decision making. z Resourced—collection assets and staff resources are identified to observe and evaluate. 8-26. The two types of indicators commonly used in assessment include MOEs and MOPs. A measure of effectiveness is an indicator used to measure a current system state, with change indicated by comparing multiple observations over time (JP 5-0). MOEs help measure changes in conditions, both positive and negative. MOEs are commonly found and tracked in formal assessment plans. MOEs help to answer the question “Are we doing the right things?” Examples of MOEs include— z Reduction in network outages or disruptions. z Number of tons arriving at the port as expected. z Number of reported attacks in the AO. z Commitment of reserve. z Number of times effectively jammed. z Number of confirming enemy reports. 8-27. A measure of performance is an indicator used to measure a friendly action that is tied to measuring task accomplishment. (JP 5-0). MOPs help answer questions such as “Was the action taken?” or “Were the tasks completed to standard?” A MOP confirms or denies that a task has been properly performed. MOPs are also commonly used to evaluate training. MOPs help to answer the question “Are we doing things right?” There is no direct hierarchical relationship among MOPs to MOEs. MOPs do not contribute to MOEs or combine in any way to produce MOEs—MOPs simply measure the performance of a task. MOPs are commonly found and tracked in execution matrixes or in routine reporting. Evaluating task accomplishment using MOPs is relatively straightforward and often results in a yes or no answer. Examples of MOPs include— z Route X cleared. z Enemy defeated on objective IRON. z Generators delivered, are operational, and are secured at villages A, B, and C. z Aerial dissemination of 60,000 leaflets over village D. 8-6 FM 5-0 0D\  Assessments 8-28. The staff organizes MOEs and MOPs into an assessment framework. An assessment framework normally begins with end state conditions, objectives, and tasks and then associates MOEs and MOPs. This framework allows the assessment indicators to follow the logic of the operational plan. STEP 4 - DEVELOP THE COLLECTION PLAN 8-29. Each indicator represents an information requirement. Staffs input these information requirements into the information collection synchronization process. Then, information collection assets are tasked to collect on the information requirements. In other situations, reports formats in unit SOPs may suffice. If not, the unit may develop a new report. Staffs may collect the information requirement from organizations external to the unit. For example, a host-nation’s central bank may publish a consumer price index for that nation. The assessment plan identifies the source for each indicator and the staff member who collects that information. Assessment information requirements compete with other information requirements for resources. When an information requirement is not resourced, staffs cannot collect the associated indicator and must remove it from the plan. Staffs then adjust the assessment framework to ensure that the MOE or MOP is properly worded. STEP 5 - ASSIGN RESPONSIBILITIES FOR CONDUCTING ANALYSIS AND GENERATING RECOMMENDATIONS 8-30. In addition to assigning responsibility for collection, commanders assign staff members to analyze assessment data and develop recommendations. For example, the intelligence officer leads the assessment of enemy forces. The engineer officer leads the effort on assessing infrastructure and development. The civil affairs operations officer leads assessment concerning the progress of local and provincial governments. The chief of staff (COS) aggressively requires staff principals and subject matter experts to participate in processing the formal assessment and in generating smart, actionable recommendations. The operations research and analysis officer assists the commander and staff with developing both assessment frameworks and the command’s assessment process. STEP 6 - IDENTIFY FEEDBACK MECHANISM 8-31. A formal assessment with meaningful recommendations that is not presented to the appropriate decision maker wastes time and energy. The assessment plan identifies who, what, when, where, and why of that presentation. The commander and staff discuss feedback leading up to and following that presentation as well. Feedback might include which assessment working groups the commander requires and how to act on and follow up on recommendations. ASSESSMENT WITHIN THE MILITARY DECISION-MAKING PROCESS 8-32. Formal assessment planning happens concurrent with each step of the MDMP. Throughout the process the assessment cell remains engaged with the planning team to ensure the assessment follows the logic of the plan or order that will be produced and executed. Table 8-1 on pages 8-8 through 8-9 lists assessment planning activities performed during each of the planning steps of the MDMP. 0D\ FM 5-0 8-7 Chapter 8 Table 8-1. Assessment planning during the military decision-making process During receipt of mission, the assessment cell— Reviews the higher headquarters order to consider— x Higher headquarters operational approach. x Higher headquarters assessment annex and requirements. x Higher headquarters intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB). Determines the identification of potential data sources. Reviews any current or historically relevant assessment products, either classified or open-source, produced by civilian and military organizations. If required, conducts operation assessment training with the assessment cell, assessment working group, and staff. Actively participates in concept development. Develops initial template assessment plan and data collection plan based on operational concept discussion with the assessment working group. Determines commander’s preferences for communicating the assessment. Determines initial allocation of time available. During mission analysis, assessment actions include— Develop an initial assessment running estimate. Review of IPB, intelligence updates, and running estimates. Support the development of risk assessment, initial measures of effectiveness and measures of performance, and initial commander’s critical information requirements and essential elements of friendly information development. Conduct assessment working groups to continue to develop assessment plan and data collection plan. During course of action (COA) development, assessment actions include— Provide assessment support to each COA development team. Conduct assessment working groups to continue to develop assessment plan and data collection plan. Provide assessment running estimate for each COA, if required. Review broad concepts for viability of assessments. During COA analysis (war gaming), assessment actions include— Provide input for evaluating progress toward attaining end-state conditions, achieving objectives, and performing tasks. Update the assessment running estimate, if required. Review the intelligence cells updates to the IPB for changes needed to collection plans. During COA comparison, assessment actions include— Provide input on the ability to assess each COA. Make recommendations on conduct of COA comparison and metrics. Conduct assessment working groups to continue to develop assessment plan and data collection plan. During COA approval, assessment actions include— Provide input and analysis to finalize the operational approach. Conduct assessment working groups to continue to finalize assessment plan and data collection plan. Assessment representatives are actively involved with the collection management working group to ascertain what is going to be collected. What is not collected is recognized as additional risk that is briefed to the commander. Conduct engagement with staff and commander to gain approval for assessment plan, data collection plan, and revalidate or revise commanders’ preference for communication of the assessment. 8-8 FM 5-0 0D\  Assessments Table 8-1. Assessment planning during the military decision-making process (continued) During order production, assessment actions include— Develop appropriate assessment annex, if different from the assessment or collection plan. Finalize the data collection plan. Finalize the commander’s assessment template. Engage with the knowledge management team to establish assessment. Prior to execution, continue to maintain situational awareness and adjust the assessment. 0D\ FM 5-0 8-9