A Diplomat's Guide to Autonomous Weapons Systems PDF

A Diplomat’s Guide to Autonomous Weapons Systems Available online at: futureoflife.org/aws-guide Contact us: [email protected]  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE A Diplomat’s Guide to Autonomous Weapons Systems Contents The Basics...

A Diplomat’s Guide to Autonomous Weapons Systems Available online at: futureoflife.org/aws-guide Contact us: [email protected]  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE A Diplomat’s Guide to Autonomous Weapons Systems Contents The Basics 2 What are autonomous weapons? 2 Why are they problematic? 3 What can be done? 3 Myths and Misconceptions 4 History of Diplomatic Talks 6 Political Landscape 8 State support for starting negotiations 8 State opposition to starting negotiations 11 Relevant Forums 12 Declarations, Communiqués, Statements 14 Frequently Asked Questions 16 References18 Available online at: futureoflife.org/aws-guide Contact us: [email protected] Cover images, left-to-right: Anduril Altius 600 (USA) | Elbit LANIUS UAV (Israel) | Elbit Seagull USV (Israel) Norinco Sharp Claw (China) | Kratos UTAP 22 Mako (USA) | Hanwha Arion-SMET (South Korea) All images from autonomousweaponswatch.org Published August 2024 1  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE The Basics What are autonomous weapons? Why are they problematic? Accountability gap: Autonomous weapons may kill more or different Autonomous weapons systems select and apply force to targets without human control.1 people than intended. Judges may therefore have difficulty assigning responsibility for war crimes. Global instability: Autonomous weapons are usually trained on classified Unlike unmanned military drones, where a human operator remotely decides data and may interact with enemy systems in unexpected ways. to take a life, autonomous weapons use algorithms to make this decision An unexpected movement by an enemy system can therefore cause independently.2 “flash wars” (unintended escalation) without human override. Moreover, Autonomous weapons are pre-programmed to recognize and kill a specific low production costs make them attractive to non-state armed groups as “target profile” based on sensor data, such as facial recognition.3 tools for genocides. They can also make it significantly easier to execute targeted killings of military or political leaders. While there are reports of autonomous weapons being deployed in recent conflicts,4 independently verified accounts are limited. Conversely, there are Ethics: Key religious leaders, including the Pope, argue that machines several known manufacturers of these weapons, including: should not be allowed to take life and death decisions. When polled, the vast majority of people reject this practice as unethical. Anduril (US) Norinco (China) Vulnerability to cyberattack: Autonomous weapons are uniquely susceptible to cyber-attacks, creating new ways for hackers to infiltrate STM (Turkey) and manipulate military operations.5 Elbit Systems (Israel) Unpredictability: Autonomous weapons operate based on environmental Kalashnikov Group (Russia) stimuli, making their behaviour uncontrollable and unpredictable.6 We maintain a database of autonomous weapons currently being developed and sold, and their manufacturers, on the website What can be done? autonomousweaponswatch.org In October 2023, the UN Secretary-General and ICRC President called upon states to negotiate a legally binding treaty on autonomous weapons by 2026. Meanwhile, in Ukraine... A treaty would likely take the form of a “two tier approach”: In July 2024, the New York Times reported that autonomous Prohibiting legally or ethically unacceptable systems, such as those which weapons are being actively developed and deployed in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. The low-cost and widespread availability of operate without meaningful human control or that target people. components has allowed local startups to rapidly develop drones that Regulating all other systems with time, spatial and geographical limits. autonomously track and attack targets. 2 3  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE Myths and Misconceptions 1. We must first agree on a definition before starting negotiations. 4. Autonomous weapons will lead to fewer civilian deaths. Not necessarily. Negotiations on the Cluster Munitions Convention were Due to the speed and scale at which autonomous weapons systems can opened before a definition was agreed upon and the definition was be deployed, the risk of mass destruction is high. The systems’ autonomy left until the end of the negotiation process.7 The Biological Weapons means that a single individual can cause mass destruction. In its wargame Convention was signed despite disagreement on the definition of models, American thinktank RAND found that “the speed of autonomous weapons-grade agents and toxins.8 Insisting on the agreement of a systems did lead to inadvertent escalation”. 11 definition has become a red herring for some states who don’t want to see action on a legally binding instrument. 5. Autonomous weapons do not currently abide by international humanitarian law, but in the future they might. 2. Geopolitical tensions are too great to attempt negotiations. Autonomous weapons will likely become increasingly sophisticated. On Political tensions are an ever-present reality, but many seminal the one hand, this may aid compliance with international humanitarian treaties have been negotiated during periods of intensive geopolitical law after a potentially lengthy transition period of illegal and indiscriminate competition. At the height of the Cold War, for example, states agreed on attacks. On the other hand, as systems become better at distinguishing both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Biological Weapons between humans they will also become better tools for the perpetuation of Convention.9 10 Ongoing conflicts provide even more impetus to genocide and targeted killings. strengthen the protection of civilians. 3. The CCW is the appropriate forum. The Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) has 127 signatories, a cohort which excludes 66 UN member states. The CCW also limits discussion to the conduct of war between states (international humanitarian law). The forum thus largely ignores ethical concerns, human rights violations, and proliferation to non-state armed groups or the way in which these weapons can facilitate future genocides. Although there has been progress on developing common understandings, progress has long been blocked by certain states taking advantage of the CCW’s consensus requirements. The degree to which the CCW is the, as opposed to an, appropriate forum is therefore questionable at best. 4 5  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE History of Diplomatic Talks Mar 2023 At the 28th Ibero-American Summit, countries endorse a special communiqué addressing the social and humanitarian Journey to a treaty effects of autonomous weapons. May 2024 Austria hosts the first global conference on autonomous Feb 2023 Costa Rica hosts the Latin American and the Caribbean weapons, affirming a “strong commitment to work with conference, which produces the Belén Communiqué calling for urgency” towards an international legal instrument. urgent international regulations. Apr 2024 Sierra Leone hosts the ECOWAS conference, resulting in Dec 2022 The sixth review conference of the CCW fails to reach the Freetown Communiqué which recognises the need to agreement on binding controls for lethal autonomous strengthen existing laws with a new legally binding instrument. weapons. States initiate regional meetings outside CCW. Dec 2023 At the Manila Meeting, the Philippines calls on Indo-Pacific Oct 2022 The UN Human Rights Council adopts a resolution on the voices to address autonomous weapons systems. human rights implications of new and emerging technologies in the military domain. Nov 2023 The first-ever UN General Assembly resolution on autonomous weapons is adopted, with 164 states in favour, 5 against, and Aug 2022 In the CCW, 11 states draft Protocol VI which includes a 8 abstentions.aa prohibition against autonomous weapons whose use violates international humanitarian law or falls outside of meaningful Oct 2023 UN Secretary General and ICRC President jointly call for States human control.c to negotiate a treaty by 2026. Nov 2019 11 ‘Guiding Principles’ are adopted by CCW states. Sep 2023 CARICOM states sign the CARICOM Declaration calling for the “urgent pursuit” of a legally binding instrument. May 2014 CCW discussions begin with the Meeting of Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems. May 2023 In the CCW, 14 states submit a revised version of Protocol VI which would prohibit the use of autonomous weapons which Nov 2013 States agree on a new mandate to open discussions on cannot be used with meaningful human control.b lethal autonomous weapons proposed by French Ambassador Jean-Hugues Simon-Michel at a CCW meeting. Apr 2023 At the Luxembourg Autonomous Weapons Systems Conference, international experts emphasise the need for Apr 2013 Christof Heyns, UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, meaningful human control. Summary or Arbitrary Executions, submits a report on ‘Lethal autonomous robotics’ to the Human Rights Council, recommending the establishment of national moratoriums and a high level panel on the subject. a The five states who voted against resolution L.56 were Belarus, India, Mali, Niger, and the Russian Federation. b The states who submitted the revised protocol were Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El c The states who submitted Protocol VI were: Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Salvador, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Palestine, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Sierra Leone, and Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Sierra Leone, and Uruguay Uruguay. 6 7  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE Political Landscape Europe Austria Supports hosted the first global conference on autonomous weapons, State support for starting negotiations with 144 states in attendance. Its Foreign Ministry declared that the “red The overwhelming majority of states (119) support the negotiation of a line of allowing algorithms to decide over life and death must not be legally binding instrument. There are 59 further states whose position is crossed.”18 undeclared. A few notable positions are highlighted below. In a letter to the Dutch Parliament, the Foreign Ministry of the Netherlands Supports states that it will pursue an international effort to ban State positions on the negotiation of a legally binding instrument: autonomous weapons, such as through a CCW protocol.19 Belgium Supports has committed to “continue efforts within the CCW” to Supports Undeclared Opposes achieve consensus in support of a legally binding instrument.20 119 59 10 In its 2021 coalition agreement, Germany’s Supports ‘traffic light’ coalition For an up-to-date overview of all state positions on the topic of Autonomous Weapons calls for actively pushing for the rejection of lethal autonomous weapons see the ‘State Positions’ directory from Automated Decision Research. which are completely “beyond human control” through “strengthened” international control regimes.21 Africa The current Norwegian Supports government platform commits Norway The African Group Supports supports launching negotiations on a legally- to taking the necessary initiatives to regulate the development of binding instrument “at the earliest” and has stated it is “inhumane, autonomous weapons.22 abhorrent, repugnant, and against public conscience for humans to give up At the 2023 CCW GGE on lethal autonomous weapons, France Undeclared control to machines.”12 expressed readiness to negotiate measures without defining the final In a 2021 joint statement at the CCW, Nigeria Supports and ten other states instrument.23 called for a legally binding instrument to prohibit autonomous weapons, Latin America and the Caribbean with the aim of upholding human dignity and preventing international In February 2023, over 30 Latin American and Caribbean states Supports instability.13 adopted the Belén Communiqué which calls for the urgent negotiation of a Sierra Leone Supports hosted a regional conference in April 2024 which legally binding instrument. affirmed West-African support for negotiations of a legally-binding In September 2023, the CARICOM declaration Supports committed the instrument.14 Community’s fifteen member states to collaborate on negotiating an Egypt Supports was the third country in the world to call for a ban on international legally binding instrument on autonomous weapons. autonomous weapons15 and has called the development of a legally In 2021, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile Supports issued a joint statement warning binding instrument “urgent”.16 that, “without meaningful human control, the development, deployment, South Africa Supports has warned against settling for an instrument which “is and use of autonomous weapons systems that can delegate decisions of a political nature only” without the prospect of reaching the level of a on duplication and execution of force to algorithms would... violate the legally binding instrument.17 principle of human dignity.”24 8 9  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE North America Oceania Canada Undeclared has not yet declared its position but a 2019 “mandate In 2021, Aotearoa New Zealand Supports adopted a policy to “advocate for” a letter” from the Prime Minister to the Foreign Minister declared an intent legally binding instrument while recognising that “a range of controls may to promote international efforts to ban the development and use of be required” for different levels of autonomy.35 autonomous weapons.25 Asia State opposition to starting negotiations In 2023, Pakistan Supports stated, “there is a clear case for developing an A small group of states oppose the development of new international law: international legal instrument envisaging prohibitions and regulations on the development, deployment and use’ of autonomous weapons.”26 Australia, Estonia, India, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A few notable positions are highlighted In 2022, Türkiye Supports stated “that the development and use of autonomous below. weapons systems which does not have meaningful human control are undesirable and conflict with international humanitarian law. Humans India Opposes has stated that a legally binding instrument would be (commanders & operators) have to be involved in the decision loop and bear premature36 and that it does not wish to widen the “technology gap” the ultimate responsibility when dealing with the decision of life and death.”27 between states37. India has also begun investing in the development of The Philippines Supports hosted the 2023 Manila Meeting which amplified autonomous weapons, including through the manufacturer Adani Defense concerns about autonomous weapons voiced by Indo-Pacific nations, and Aerospace.38 including the risk of “armed escalation of existing conflict.”28 In 2021, Israel Opposes believes that there are “operational advantages” to using the Philippines called for a legally-binding instrument on autonomous weapons to be negotiated within the CCW.29 autonomous weapons and believes existing international humanitarian law provides an adequate framework.39 In parallel, Israel is actively developing, Sri Lanka’s Supports Foreign Secretary spoke at Austria’s international testing, producing, and using autonomous weapons systems.40 41 conference, reaffirming Sri Lanka’s support for a legally binding instrument.30 Russia Opposes has firmly rejected calls to negotiate a new international At the 2024 Austrian conference, Malaysia Undeclared stated that the negative treaty on autonomous weapons, as well as any “moratorium on consequences of using autonomous weapons “far exceed” any “legitimate development” of such weapons.42 Reportedly, Russian manufacturer military objectives” and called on the international community to maintain focus on developing a legal framework to regulate this technology.31 Kalashnikov has been developing autonomous weapons systems and Russia has employed such weapons in recent conflict.43 Indonesia Supports has stated, “We believe that machines should not kill people and therefore reject the automation of killing.”32 Representing the In 2021, the United States Opposes said that it believes international Non-Aligned Movement, which comprises 125 states, Indonesia stated, that humanitarian law and the national efforts to implement it are sufficient to there is an “urgent need to pursue a legally binding instrument.”33 address the challenges of autonomous weapons.44 American companies, such as Anduril Industries, Inc., manufacture autonomous weapons. China Supports has said that it supports “the negotiation of a legally binding instrument to prohibit fully autonomous weapons systems if and when The US Department of Defense also launched the Replicator initiative, conditions are ripe.” It has also stated that the “treaty framework is the a programme focused on quickly deploying thousands of autonomous right vessel” to deal with issues posed by autonomous weapons.34 weapons systems across multiple military domains by August 2025.45 10 11  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE Relevant Forums Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Autonomous weapons are discussed in various international bodies. The most REAIM emerged from a Dutch parliamentary resolution and has since expanded prominent ones are listed below, in order of when they first took up the issue. its scope to include discussions on other issues related to AI in the military (eg. surveillance). United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) 60 countries participated in REAIM 2023, the culmination of which was a As early as 2013, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial Killings (non-binding) “call to action”. called for national moratoriums in his report to the Human Rights Council. The However, the forum only facilitates discussions about autonomous weapons Council is comprised of 47 seats which states occupy on a three-year rotation. without a view to concrete restrictions, with the “call to action” not mentioning In 2013, 30 states spoke out in the Council against autonomous weapons, the development of legally-binding rules.46 many calling for a ban. The forum has also provided a platform for the United States to introduce its In 2022, the Council passed a resolution on human rights issues related to “Political Declaration”, the commitments within which are considered to be emerging technologies in the military domain. among the weakest out of all the non-binding commitments proposed to date.47 In 2024, it produced a report recommending specific prohibitions on types of autonomous weapons which pose particular threats to human rights. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) In July 2023, under the chairmanship of the United Kingdom, the Security Council Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) held its first session about the threats of AI to global peace. As early as 2014, members of the CCW adopted a mandate to address lethal At the meeting, representatives of various Security Council members and autonomous weapons. As a forum, the CCW has focused exclusively on issues of invited experts called for the maintenance of human oversight over military international humanitarian law. applications of AI. The main achievement of the CCW has been the adoption, in 2019, of 11 The UN Secretary General briefed the council and welcomed proposals for Guiding Principles on lethal autonomous weapons systems. the creation of a dedicated UN agency to monitor AI technology, including its military applications. With its requirement for consensus, the CCW is often blocked from reaching agreement by states with vested interests (eg. Russia, United States). United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Recently, attention has shifted to the UN General Assembly as the most probable forum where a legally binding instrument could emerge. (UNESCO) UNESCO began formally discussing artificial intelligence, including military The UNGA is an inclusive forum with all UN member states able to participate. applications, around 2019, as part of its broader efforts to address the ethical A General Assembly resolution on autonomous weapons was passed in 2023 implications of emerging technologies. with 164 states in favour. Another UN resolution is likely to be adopted in 2024. In 2021, all 193 member states adopted a comprehensive ethical framework for AI, including guidelines on the use of autonomous weapons. In particular, recommendation 26 notes: “in scenarios where decisions (...) may involve life and death decisions, final human determination should apply.” 12 13  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE Declarations, Communiqués, Statements How do they compare? The Austrian Chair’s Summary at the global conference affirms its “strong commitment to work with urgency and with all interested stakeholders for an international legal instrument to regulate autonomous weapons.” The ECOWAS conference’s Freetown Communiqué called for the establishment of “new legally binding rules” which will strengthen existing governance mechanisms. Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Conference 2023, Latin American & the Caribbean Regional Conference Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago on Autonomous Weapons 2023, Costa Rica UNGA Resolution 78/241 requests views on “ways to address” challenges and concerns that autonomous weapons “raise from humanitarian, legal, The US Political Declaration at REAIM 2023 states that military use of security, technological and ethical perspectives and on the role of humans AI “should be ethical, responsible, and enhance international security.” in the use of force.” However, the Declaration fails to recommend any prohibitions on autonomous weapons, such as those which cannot be used with human The CARICOM Declaration calls for the “urgent pursuit of an international control. legally binding instrument, incorporating prohibitions and regulations on autonomous weapons systems.” The REAIM 2023 Call to Action invites states to “develop national frameworks, strategies and principles on responsible AI in the military The 28th Ibero-American Summit’s Special Communiqué calls for domain,” but it also fails to specify any limitations on development and use collaboration on the negotiation of a legally binding instrument. of autonomous weapons. The Latin American and the Caribbean Conference’s Belén Communiqué The UNGA Joint Statement emphasizes the need for internationally agreed calls for the “urgent negotiation” of a legally binding instrument that rules and limits – including a combination of prohibitions and regulations establishes prohibitions and regulations regarding autonomy in weapons on autonomous weapons systems. systems. Vienna Conference on Autonomous Weapons Systems ECOWAS Freetown Conference on Autonomous 2024, Austria Weapons 2024, Sierra Leone 14 15  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE Frequently Asked Questions Answers to some common questions on the topic of autonomous weapons: 1. Shouldn’t we give the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons 4. Would a treaty be ineffective if the countries using autonomous (CCW) the chance to fulfil its mandate? weapons don’t join? States opposed to opening negotiations have repeatedly seized on new Treaties have an impact beyond the signatory countries. For example, CCW mandates as a reason to keep talking. After the failed 2021 Review the U.S., Russia and China have not ratified the 1997 Landmine Treaty but Conference, however, states have initiated both regional conferences and have nonetheless adopted policies to limit the use and production of anti- the 2023 General Assembly resolution to break the recurring stalemate. personnel mines. After all, the CCW has discussed autonomous weapons since 2014 and Given the proliferation risk to non-state armed groups, a treaty can also has not agreed on any new international law for the past 20 years. have a positive and immediate impact on regional stability even if a global power does not yet sign on from the start. Unlike nuclear weapons, 2. Do autonomous weapons already exist? autonomous weapons are available to all and the prevention of regional Yes. As Nature reported this year, “autonomous weapons guided by proliferation is achievable by a treaty. artificial intelligence are already in use.”48 Their use is often difficult A new global norm could be enshrined in a treaty signed by the vast to identify, but evidence points towards several examples of their majority of nations and supplemented by informal agreement between, appearance in recent conflicts. The manufacturing, buying, and selling, of for example, the US and China to abide by core principles. Furthermore, autonomous weapons remains well-documented.49 An overview can be some states (such as Germany and the Netherlands) which have been found on autonomousweaponswatch.org. adjacent to, or have had some involvement in, the production and use of autonomous weapons have expressed support for the negotiation of 3. Will we ever reach agreement on this issue? legally binding rules. With 119 states in favour of a legally binding instrument, agreement on the issue of autonomous weapons has never been higher. Given this groundswell of support and the recent steps towards discussing the issue in the General Assembly, the question no longer seems to be if but rather when an agreement will be reached. 16 17  FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE FUTURE OF LIFE INSTITUTE References A clickable list of citations is available at futureoflife.org/aws-guide. 1 ICRC (2021a). ICRC Position on Autonomous Weapon Systems. www.icrc.org. [online] Available at: https:// 20 Ambassador Philippe Kridelka (2023). Statement by Belgium, UNGA First Committee, October 2023. www.icrc.org/en/document/icrc-position-autonomous-weapon-systems. [online] Available at: https://newyorkun.diplomatie.belgium.be/sites/default/files/statement_ BELGIUM_1COM_2023_Full%20statement_0.pdf [Accessed 30 Jul. 2024]. 2 Autonomous Weapons. (2017). Front Page. 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[online] Available at: https:// www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/10/armys-big-convention-was-full-armed-robots/378435/ [Accessed 30 Jul. 2024]. 20  Produced and distributed by [email protected] The Autonomous Weapons Newsletter Stay up-to-date on the autonomous weapons space with a monthly newsletter covering policymaking efforts, weapons systems technology, and more. autonomousweapons.news Autonomous Weapons Watch Check out our autonomous weapons database to discover the most concerning autonomous weapons being developed and sold today. autonomousweaponswatch.org Our dedicated site provides an approachable introduction to the topic of autonomous weapons with an overview of the technology, risks, and policy solutions. autonomousweapons.org