23-24_DC005-ທ້າວ ພຸດທະສັກ ເສນາມຸນຕີ_PPT [Recovered].pptx

Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio The effects of abolishing the agricultural products tax on bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and Thailand: anal...

Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio The effects of abolishing the agricultural products tax on bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and Thailand: analysis using a model Dynamic CGE Phoutthasack SENAMOUNTY Pouna Phommabouth Commerce Department, National university of Laos August 2024 Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 1 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results 6 Conclusions Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 2 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results 6 Conclusions Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 3 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Objective and significance of the study Objectives of the study - To determine the effects of abolishing import and export taxes on the agricultural products. - To compare the effects of abolishing import and export taxes on the agricultural products of The Lao PDR and Thailand between Baseline and scenarios on the country's economy, international trade, and social welfare position on the production and consumption. Significant of the study - to inform all stakeholders -including consumers, producers, importers, and exporters -about rising trade cost from NTMs in the region of Laos and Thailand and other countries - understand how much NTMs effect tariffs of its to the agricultural trade - a better discussion on the agricultural trade policy to fixing the hinderance on trade impacting the economic growth and livelihood f the people of Laos - develop better strategies in eliminate the trade restriction - to promote facilitation of trade Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 4 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Background of Tariff in Laos Since the implementation of the New Economic Mechanism in 1986, Laos has drastically reduced import taxes from 150% to a maximum of 40% today, with over half of its products now taxed below 5%. ASEAN and AFTA have further reduced trade barriers for Laos, with most tariffs eliminated by 2015 Thailand has traditionally been the Lao PDR’s biggest trading partner This signify the important of Tariff on Trade , and overall country’s wellness  what is the significance of import market power in trade policy?  what will happened if the country alter the tax policy for import and export?  what are the impact to its Economy exploration in the domain of Tax Abolishment scenario? this study is inspired from many hours of research and many difference scholars , serving as foundation or ground work which pioneers a framework for forecasting policy scenarios or implications of tax exemption scenarios Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 5 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Background of Tariff in Laos In this paper, we investigate the effects of abolishing the agricultural products tax. The goals of this study are to forecasting implementation of 0% Taxes policy (GDP), Trade, and Welfare between Lao PDR and Thailand. (CGE) model were employed, using data from Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database, (IMF), And (WDI) to forecasting future Baseline (BL) of the year 2025 to 2030. And, we conducted ex ante simulation analysis to find the impact 0% Taxes exemption effect on economic indicators between bilateral trade country. exploring 3 scenarios: 1. zero import tax policy from Thailand to Laos, 2. zero import tax policy from Laos to Thailand and 3. Both countries implement Zero taxes policy Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 6 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results 6 Conclusions Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 7 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Important literature reviews Theoretical significant Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War Itakura, K. (2020) Descriptive significant After the negotiations: Assessing the Lewis, J. D., Robinson, S., & impact of free trade agreements in Thierfelder, K. (1999) Southern Africa Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 表 1: Group Overview 8 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Independent Dependent Variables Variables GDP Taxes TRADE imposed on WELFARE bilateral trade Note: Factors influencing the non-tariff measures in ad valorem equivalents in compare in percentage of tariff effecting on the overall country Trade, GDP and Welfare. Faculty of economic and business management, National University of Laos 表 1: Group Overview 9 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology Study Procedure Data and estimation procedures 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results 6 Conclusions 10 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Study Procedure Study Procedure Descriptive Method. Quantitative Method. Data Secondary Data - Real GDP and Trade From International Monetary Fund (IMF) from Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) - Welfare, Tax rate From The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base - (2012-2023 period) Tools of estimation GTAP WORLD BANK GEMPACK Programs IMF GOOGLE CGE Model Approaches usingSCHOLAR (GEMPACK) 1. Creating the Gtapagg3 Aggregation for regional, sectoral and factorial 2. Using Rundynam to calculate the Impact scenarios 11 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio GEMPACK Program for CGE analysis 12 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Regional Aggregation: 160+ Countries 13 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Sectoral Aggregation 3 Sectors; 56 Products 14 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Factorial Aggregation : 5 Factors 15 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio For simulation result we use rundynam, program The technical procedure is very long so the committee could ask the thesis defender later after the defend (the students have created the manual on CGE analysis using Rundynam and GTAP ) 16 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results 6 Conclusions 7 Conclusions 17 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Import tax of Laos rTMS 1 LAO 2 THAI 3 ROW Total 1 AgFood 0 22,68027 0,67101 23,35128 2 Mnfc 0 1,98603 0,58483 2,57086 3 Services 0 0 0 0 Total 0 24,6663 1,25583 25,92213 Import tax of Thailand rTMS 1 LAO 2 THAI 3 ROW Total 1 AgFood 10,53253 0 10,5406 21,07314 2 Mnfc 5,6693 0 2,63476 8,30406 3 Services 4,74159 0 0 4,74159 Total 20,94341 0 13,17537 34,11878 Xinyi Wang Loan Profit Prediction under the Framework of Innovative Fusion Model 1 8 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Real GDP Baseline qgdp(b Lao PDR Thailand Rest of ) the world 2012 8,023 7,238 2,424 Real GDP Growth Rate 2013 8,024 2,685 2,666 2014 7,610 0,985 2,863 Lao PDR 2015 7,268 3,133 2,823 2016 7,021 3,434 2,496 Linear (Lao PDR) 2017 6,892 4,176 3,146 Thailand 2018 6,248 4,222 3,366 Rest of the world 2019 5,459 2,117 3,127 2020 0,511 -6,030 3,027 10 2021 2,532 1,573 3,020 2022 2,710 2,465 3,010 5 2023 3,747 1,884 2,980 0 2024 4,000 2,700 2,961 2025 4,000 2,899 2,951 -5 % 2026 4,099 2,999 2,935 2027 4,199 2,998 2,954 -10 2028 4,399 2,998 2,964 2029 4,599 2,998 2,973 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 2030 3,80840 2,611301 2,979 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 5 1 9 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Real GDP Base Line (BL) Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 GDP Impact of Impact of Impact of 1 LAO impact 1 LAO 1 LAO 1 LAO (1) (2) (3) 8,023 2012 - 8,023381 0 8,023381 0 8,023381 0 4 8,023 2013 - 8,023704 0 8,023704 0 8,023704 0 7 7,610 2014 - 7,609963 0 7,609963 0 7,609963 0 0 7,268 2015 - 7,268418 0 7,268418 0 7,268418 0 4 7,021 2016 - 7,021053 0 7,021053 0 7,021053 0 1 6,891 2017 - 6,891665 0 6,891665 0 6,891665 0 7 6,248 2018 - 6,248242 0 6,248242 0 6,248242 0 2 5,459 2019 - 5,458988 0 5,458988 0 5,458988 0 0 0,511 2020 - 0,511184 0 0,511184 0 0,511184 0 2 2,532 2021 Note: - 2,53217 0 2,53217 0 2,53217 0 2 BL is business as usual 2,710 2022 Scenario-1 is implementing 0 - tariff 2,710176 exemption from Thailand 0 2,710176 0 2,710176 0 2 Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos 3,746 Scenario-3 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 2023 - 3,746805 0 3,746805 0 3,746805 0 8 4,000 2024 - 4,012637 0,012367 3,998856 -0,001414 4,011108 0,010838 20 / 40 3 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Real GDP Base Line Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 GDP Impact of Impact of 2 THAI impact 2 THAI 2 THAI Impact of (2) 2 THAI (1) (3) 7,23767 2012 - 0 0 0 3 7,237673 7,237673 7,237673 2,68513 2013 - 0 0 0 1 2,685131 2,685131 2,685131 0,98497 2014 - 0 0 0 9 0,984979 0,984979 0,984979 3,13288 2015 - 0 0 0 8 3,132888 3,132888 3,132888 3,43394 2016 - 0 0 0 1 3,433941 3,433941 3,433941 4,17647 2017 - 0 0 0 1 4,176471 4,176471 4,176471 4,22210 2018 - 0 0 0 8 4,222108 4,222108 4,222108 2,11670 2019 - 0 0 0 5 2,116705 2,116705 2,116705 - 2020 6,03006 - 0 0 0 3 -6,030063 -6,030063 -6,030063 1,57256 2021 - 0 0 0 8 1,572568 1,572568 1,572568 2,46459 2022 - 0 0 0 0 2,464590 2,464590 2,464590 Note: 1,88448 2023 BL is business as usual - 0 0 0 8 1,884488 1,884488 1,884488 Scenario-1 is implementing 2,69976 0 tariff exemption from Thailand 2024 Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff- exemption2,699842 from Laos 0,000081 0,000670 0,000752 1 2,700431 2,700513 Scenario-3 is implementing 2,89889 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 2025 - 0,000133 0,000601 0,000729 6 2,899029 2,899497 2,899625 2,99850 2026 - 0,000171 0,000490 0,000651 5 2,998676 2,998995 2,999156 2,99826 21 / 40 2027 - 0,000215 0,000317 0,000515 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Real GDP Conclusion: Impact on Real GDP , after 0% tax shock S1: Laos Real GDP is growing 0.01-0.025% showing no hinderance on Real GDP where as Thailand GDP is 0.0001-0.00029% S2: Laos Real GDP continue to decrease , between – 0.0014% to -0.0137 % , this may due to harmful import from Thailand after no taxes imposed on goods , whereas Thailand GDP is increasing 0.0006% from 2024 onward until it decline in 2029 and 2030 between - 0.00025% to -0.00062% S3: Laos Real GDP is increase gradually, since 2024 to 2030 between 0.01% to 0.008% overall an increase of 0,078% convert to 17.13 billion USD an increase of 1-2 billion USD compare to Laos current GDP 15.84 in 2023. where as Thailand GDP is increase in from 2024-2028 and decline in 2029 – 2030. this may due to dependence on 1 market and comparative advantage that making Thai GDP fall. 22 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Productivity output Baseline Productivity Output Baseline N 1 2 3 o. qo(b) LAO THAI ROW 1 Land 0 0 0 2 UnSkLa 1,44 3,570 2,324 b 0 3 SkLab 1,44 3,570 2,324 0 4 Capital 3,82 3,283 3,239 9 5 NatRes 0 0 0 6 AgFood 3,58 0,332 2,365 8 7 Mnfc 4,59 3,057 2,986 4 8 Service 4,04 2,809 3,046 s 0 9 CGDS 3,35 3,260 3,128 23 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on industry output Laos BL Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 Scenario- Scenario- Impact of qo(b) Baseline - Impact of (1) Scenario-3 Impact of (3) 1 2 (2) 1 Land 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1,440 - 1,44 0 1,44 0 1,44 0 UnSkLab 3 SkLab 1,440 - 1,44 0 1,44 0 1,44 0 3,86415 4 Capital 3,829 - 0,035325 3,808286 -0,020541 3,843121 0,014294 2 5 NatRes 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,55588 6 AgFood 3,588 - -0,031622 3,766558 0,179048 3,739128 0,151618 8 4,80876 7 Mnfc 4,594 - 0,214829 3,74875 -0,845184 3,973094 -0,620840 3 8 4,07942 4,040 - 0,039484 3,915284 -0,124659 3,951423 -0,088520 Services 7 3,43416 9 CGDS 3,355 - 0,078956 3,280115 -0,075092 3,356435 0,001228 3 Note: BL is business as usual Scenario-1 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Thailand Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos Scenario-3 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 24 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on industry output Thailand BL Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 Scenario- Scenario- Impact of qo(b) Baseline - Impact of (1) Scenario-3 Impact of (3) 1 2 (2) 1 Land 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3,570 - 3,57 0 3,57 0 3,57 0 UnSkLab 3 SkLab 3,570 - 3,57 0 3,57 0 3,57 0 4 Capital 3,283 - 3,283641 0,000732 3,283283 0,000374 3,284019 0,001110 5 NatRes 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 AgFood 0,332 - 0,339825 0,007593 0,328823 -0,003409 0,337043 0,004811 7 Mnfc 3,057 - 3,054962 -0,001768 3,059339 0,002609 3,057433 0,000703 8 Services 2,809 - 2,809764 0,000330 2,80897 -0,000464 2,809261 -0,000173 9 CGDS 3,260 - 3,262503 0,002069 3,261109 0,000675 3,263205 0,002771 Note: BL is business as usual Scenario-1 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Thailand Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos Scenario-3 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 25 / 40  Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on industry output Note: Land and natural resources are fixed factors of production: their quantities cannot be quickly adjusted to change the output Unskill and skill labor stay the same throughout the tax shock Conclusion: Impact on Industry output , after 0% tax shock S1: Laos industry output: we see Growth in capital 0.03%, 0.21% in manufacture, 0.03% in service , 0.07% in CGDS and only -0.31 in Agriculture is decrease , whereas for Thailand output is 0.03% in capital, 0.0003% in services, 0.002 in CGDS and only – 0.001% in manufacture. is decrease S2: Laos industry output: we only see Growth in agriculture 0.17%, and other outputs are decrease -0.02% in capital, -0.84% in manufacture , -0.12 in service and -0.07 in CGDS, For Thailand we see 2 factors decrease, -0.003% in agriculture, -0.0006% in service, and Growth for , 0.003% in capital, 0.002 in manufacture and 0.0006% in CGDS. S3: Laos industry output: we see 2 factors decrease, -0.62% in manufacture, -0.08% in service, and Growth for , 0.01% in capital, 0.15% agriculture and 0.001% in CGDS whereas for Thailand we see Growth in capital 0.001%, 0.0007% in manufacture, 0.004% in Agriculture , 0.002% in CGDS and only -0.0001 in service is decrease 26 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Trade Baseline Trade Volume Baseline tot(b) 1 LAO 2 THAI 3 ROW 2012 0,49425 0,07937 -0,0011 2013 -0,0882 0,30125 -0,0037 2014 -0,5338 0,32949 -0,004 2015 -0,64 0,06221 -0,0007 2016 -0,7592 -0,0229 0,0004 2017 -0,8991 -0,1049 0,00145 2018 -1,0042 -0,1427 0,00196 2019 -1,1445 -0,0289 0,00058 2020 -1,9928 0,44988 -0,0052 2021 -1,1993 -0,0377 0,00073 2022 -0,9187 -0,0247 0,00052 2023 -0,6618 0,04498 -0,0004 2024 -0,4664 0,03753 -0,0004 2025 -0,3668 0,0475 -0,0005 2026 -0,3034 0,05381 -0,0006 2027 -0,2554 0,05328 -0,0006 2028 -0,2173 0,04709 -0,0005 2029 -0,1969 0,03802 -0,0004 2030 -0,2698 0,04481 -0,0005 27 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Trade Laos Trade Simulation Year Baseline Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 2012 0,49425 0,49425 0,49425 0,49425 2013 -0,08818 -0,08818 -0,08818 -0,088176 2014 -0,53381 -0,53381 -0,53381 -0,533805 2015 -0,64002 -0,64002 -0,64002 -0,640017 2016 -0,75916 -0,75916 -0,75916 -0,75916 2017 -0,89907 -0,89907 -0,89907 -0,899073 2018 -1,00417 -1,00417 -1,00417 -1,004173 2019 -1,1445 -1,1445 -1,1445 -1,1445 2020 -1,99284 -1,99284 -1,99284 -1,992844 2021 -1,19928 -1,19928 -1,19928 -1,199281 2022 -0,91869 -0,91869 -0,91869 -0,918685 2023 -0,66175 -0,66175 -0,66175 -0,661752 2024 -0,46645 -0,51605 -0,38203 -0,431794 2025 -0,3668 -0,41623 -0,26906 -0,318927 2026 -0,30343 -0,35496 -0,1892 -0,241529 2027 -0,25544 -0,30943 -0,12291 -0,178168 2028 -0,21731 -0,27449 -0,06363 -0,122691 2029 -0,1969 -0,25736 -0,01922 -0,082345 Note: 2030 -0,26978 -0,33 -0,06969 -0,133283 BL is business as usual Scenario-1 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Thailand Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos Scenario-3 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 28 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on trade Thailand Trade Simulation Year Baseline Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 2012 0,079365 0,079365 0,079365 0,079365 2013 0,301254 0,301254 0,301254 0,301254 2014 0,329489 0,329489 0,329489 0,329489 2015 0,062211 0,062211 0,062211 0,062211 2016 -0,02287 -0,02287 -0,02287 -0,022869 2017 -0,10486 -0,10486 -0,10486 -0,104861 2018 -0,14269 -0,14269 -0,14269 -0,142694 2019 -0,02887 -0,02887 -0,02887 -0,028869 2020 0,44988 0,44988 0,44988 0,44988 2021 -0,03771 -0,03771 -0,03771 -0,037709 2022 -0,02471 -0,02471 -0,02471 -0,024708 2023 0,044981 0,044981 0,044981 0,044981 2024 0,037528 0,038728 0,03673 0,037934 2025 0,047501 0,048711 0,046559 0,047782 2026 0,05381 0,05506 0,052678 0,053956 2027 0,053276 0,054561 0,051926 0,053255 2028 0,047085 0,048412 0,045489 0,046877 Note: 2029 0,038016 0,039387 0,036132 0,037587 BL is business as usual 2030 0,044807 0,046211 0,042529 0,044039 Scenario-1 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Thailand Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos Scenario-3 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Both countries 29 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on trade Conclusion: Impact Trade volume, after 0% tax shock Note: Laos trade status was declined since 2013 with trade deficit of -0.08% and it continue to increase to -0.6 in 2023 S1: Compare to the baseline year of 2023 the trade deficit is reduced to half -0.33 in the year 2030 compare 2023 where the trade deficit is -0.66 , where as Thailand Trade is increase gradually with no sign of decline S2: Laos trade deficit is reducing much further, -0.06% in 2030, whereas Thailand where as Thailand Trade is increase gradually with no sign of decline S3: : Laos trade deficit is reducing considerately -0.13% in 2030. where as Thailand Trade is increase gradually with no sign of decline 30 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Welfare Baseline Welfare Baseline, (million US$) EV(b) 1 LAO 2 THAI 3 ROW 2012 547,855 21680,82 1413655 2013 534,1771 6509,669 1623958 2014 491,504 155,4453 1815068 2015 469,283 7051,42 1838071 2016 457,8159 7751,775 1632823 2017 457,1853 10303,56 2201032 2018 409,773 10503,97 2454263 2019 345,6312 2604,411 2329864 2020 -195,269 -28789,1 2307174 2021 94,94794 2978,997 2373768 2022 148,3913 6993,942 2436513 2023 288,4657 5217,229 2480461 2024 340,6675 8816,467 2536345 2025 359,8037 9876,674 2602184 2026 390,1395 10489,39 2662191 2027 418,8226 10631,24 2762262 2028 460,1034 10758,4 2855929 2029 502,4254 10888,65 2951191 2030 412,504 9234,377 3046556 3 1 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Welfare Laos Welfare Base Line Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 simulatio n Impact of Impact of Impact of Year Baseline - Scenario-1 (1) Scenario-2 (2) Scenario-3 (3) 2012 547,85498 - 547,85498 0 547,85498 0 547,85498 0 534,17706 534,17706 534,17706 2013 534,177063 - 3 0 3 0 3 0 491,50402 491,50402 491,50402 2014 491,504028 - 8 0 8 0 8 0 2015 469,28302 - 469,28302 0 469,28302 0 469,28302 0 457,81594 457,81594 457,81594 2016 457,815948 - 8 0 8 0 8 0 457,18527 457,18527 457,18527 2017 457,185272 - 2 0 2 0 2 0 2018 409,77298 - 409,77298 0 409,77298 0 409,77298 0 345,63116 345,63116 345,63116 2019 345,631165 - 5 0 5 0 5 0 - - - 2020 -195,26889 - 195,26889 0 195,26889 0 195,26889 0 2021 94,947937 - 94,947937 0 94,947937 0 94,947937 0 148,39129 148,39129 148,39129 2022 148,391296 - 6 0 6 0 6 0 288,46566 288,46566 288,46566 2023 Note: 288,465668 - 8 0 8 0 8 0 BL is business as usual 337,61804 347,09069 2024 is implementing Scenario-1 340,66748 - from Thailand 2 0 tariff exemption -3,0494 8 6,423218 344,03302 3,36554 356,12670 Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from Laos 368,15020 364,43069 2025 is implementing Scenario-3 359,80365 - from Both countries 0 tariff exemption 9 -3,6769 8 8,346558 5 4,627045 400,88522 396,28912 2026 390,139526 - 385,63916 -4,5004 3 10,745697 4 6,149598 432,53720 426,86877 32 / 40 2027 418,822571 - 413,32959 -5,4930 1 13,71463 4 8,046203 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Welfare Thailand Welfare Base Line Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 Simulatio n Impact of Impact of Impact of Year Baseline - Scenario-1 (1) Scenario-2 (2) Scenario-3 (3) 21680,8222 21680,8222 21680,8222 2012 21680,82227 - 7 0 7 0 7 0 6509,66894 6509,66894 6509,66894 2013 6509,668945 - 5 0 5 0 5 0 2014 155,445251 - 155,445251 0 155,445251 0 155,445251 0 2015 7051,42041 - 7051,42041 0 7051,42041 0 7051,42041 0 7751,77539 7751,77539 7751,77539 2016 7751,775391 - 1 0 1 0 1 0 10303,5644 10303,5644 10303,5644 2017 10303,56445 - 5 0 5 0 5 0 2018 10503,9668 - 10503,9668 0 10503,9668 0 10503,9668 0 2604,41064 2604,41064 2604,41064 2019 2604,410645 - 5 0 5 0 5 0 - - - 2020 -28789,0977 - 28789,0977 0 28789,0977 0 28789,0977 0 2978,99658 2978,99658 2978,99658 2021 2978,996582 - 2 0 2 0 2 0 6993,94189 6993,94189 6993,94189 2022 6993,941895 - 5 0 5 0 5 0 5217,22900 5217,22900 5217,22900 Note:2023 5217,229004 - 4 0 4 0 4 0 BL is business as usual 8820,77734 8816,44140 8820,76171 Scenario-1 2024 is implementing 0 tariff exemption 8816,466797 - from Thailand 4 4,3105 6 -0,025391 9 4,294922 Scenario-2 is implementing 0 tariff exemption from 9881,44726 Laos 9875,47656 9880,28515 Scenario-3 2025 is implementing 0 tariff exemption 9876,673828 - from Both countries 6 4,7734 3 -1,197265 6 3,611328 10494,7304 10486,5146 10491,9033 2026 10489,39258 - 7 5,3379 5 -2,87793 2 2,510742 10637,1601 10626,0810 33 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Simulation Results Impact on Welfare Conclusion: Impact on Welfare, after 0% tax shock S1: Laos Welfare is declining from -3.0494 to -8.19 during 5 years period total of –39.8 Million USD decrease on welfare where as Thailand Welfare is increasing 416,436 million USD S2: Laos Welfare is increasing from 6.423 to 25.13 during 5 years period total of 104,14 Million USD increase on welfare where as Thailand Welfare is decreasing from 2024-2030, -417,436 million USD due to the lost of import taxes from Laos S3: Laos Welfare is increasing from 3.3655 to 16.307 during 5 years period total of 62,576 Million USD increase on welfare where as Thailand Welfare is increasing initially from 4.294 to 0.833 in 2024-2027, and gradually decline with -1.526 to -9.242 in 2028-2029 total of -15.54 Million USD , total amount of 5 years period is -4.29 million USD decrease in welfare. 34 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Conclusions 1 Introduction 2 Literature Reviews 3 Research Methodology 4 Dataset 5 Empirical Results and Model Evaluation 6 Conclusions 35 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results Conclusion Conclusions and Recommendation Conclusion Conclusion: Impact on GDP, Industry output, Trade and Welfare after 0% tax shock S1: if only Laos received 0 tariff exemption: The Impact: on Laos Real GDP (+) , Trade (-), Welfare (-) The Impact on Thailand GDP (+) , Trade (+), Welfare (+)Trade due to it declined since 2012 and welfare In conclusion, Laos will lost benefit on its country’s while there is spike in Real GDP, Laos welfare will hurt itself due to its inefficient. resources allocation, lack of infrastructures ,loss due to improper policies and Aiding from government. Whereas Thailand will gain most benefit, indirectly. The Impact on Laos Real GDP (-) , Trade (-), Welfare (+) S2:if only Thailand received 0% tariff exemption: The Impact on Thailand GDP at first (+) Latter (-) , Trade (+), Welfare (-) In this case, Laos GDP will decline due to Harmful import because no tariff from Thailand export to Laos, Trade will also decline as usual but welfare will increase because of lower food prices, and strengthen food security this lead to job creation whereas Thailand Trade improve, GDP improved initially but decline in latter part and welfare is minus The Impact on Laos Real GDP (+) , Trade (-), Welfare (+) S3: if Both countries received 0% tariff exemption: The Impact on Thailand GDP at first (+) Latter (-) , Trade (+), Welfare First (+) Latter (-) Possible case is both country exemption on taxes, The Economy is well balance and both countries is receiving the same benefit Laos GDP and Welfare will increase and benefit the most whereas Thai will also receive the same benefit initially but decline in the latter due to income inequality to other sectors, environmental cost and Thailand will lose on its public service decline and worst might face trade imbalance 36 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results Conclusion Conclusions and Recommendation Limitation  Secondary data was used, certain data were absent, unavailable or inaccessible and public data were used, so some of the simulation result might not reflect the impact of all economic indicators.  There were no available related studies in the region of Laos. This posed a significant challenge in sourcing relevant references and establishing an appropriate methodology for this research. Consequently, this study pioneers a framework for forecasting policy scenarios or implications of tax exemption, serving as foundation or ground work for future researches. This limitation underscores the novelty of our research and the need for further exploration in the domain of Tax Abolishment Utilization 1) understanding and awareness of the government's policy, 2) the importance of business, 3) the need to cancel taxes, 4) the need to collect government taxes, 5) the main factors of policy making, 6) the importance of producing agricultural products that can increase the balance leading to the ability to exported abroad and thinking about policies that will benefit the country. 37 / 40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results Conclusion Conclusions and Recommendation Recommendation In this study, I studied the effects of the abolition of bilateral agricultural tax between the Lao PDR and Thailand, so I would like to recommend to the next study that:  Should study chapters related to taxes and statistics of the economy in and outside the country, collect information from relevant sections.  Research the tax policy so as not to cause inequality with other types of products.  The government should speed up negotiations on taxes for each country in order to make the trade policy more convenient.  Provision of commercial information. More statistics on the country's website to facilitate the next study.  Use CGE to research more chapters, other sectors. 38/40 Introduction Literature Reviews Research Methodology Dataset Empirical Results and Model Evaluation Practical Simulatio Thanks for listening 3 9 /40