Nuclear Nonproliferation & Arms Control 2023 PDF

Arms Control Nuclear nonproliferation and arms control Professor Andrei Zagorski 29 .3 .20 23 Nuclear nonproliferation and arms control  The NPT regime(s)  The 1968 “Grand bargain”  The 1995 NPT “extension package”  Nonproliferation and nuclear arms control as part of the NPT review pro...

Arms Control Nuclear nonproliferation and arms control Professor Andrei Zagorski 29 .3 .20 23 Nuclear nonproliferation and arms control  The NPT regime(s)  The 1968 “Grand bargain”  The 1995 NPT “extension package”  Nonproliferation and nuclear arms control as part of the NPT review process  Proliferation of nuclear disarmament initiatives Zagorski, 29 March 2023 2 The Treaty on the Non -Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)  signed 1968, entry into force in 1970  nuclear -weapon states (NWS – those who have manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to 1 January, 1967) undertake:  not to transfer to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices … directly, or indirectly  not in any way to assist, encourage, or induce any non -nuclear - weapon State to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons …  non -nuclear -weapon states (NNWS) undertake:  not to receive the transfer of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices … directly, or indirectly  not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons …  not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons Zagorski, 29 March 2023 3 The IAEA safeguards  for the purpose of verifying their obligations under the treaty, the NNWS agreed to accept safeguards administered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on all source and special fissionable material in their territory or under their control  the IAEA is responsible for certifying that NNWS parties to the Treaty have not diverted nuclear material from peaceful purposes for use in nuclear weapons  to strengthen and expand IAEA safeguards against the diversion of nuclear material by NNWS, the voluntary Additional Protocol was adopted in 1997 Zagorski, 29 March 2023 4 Peaceful use  the inalienable right of all parties to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination  potential benefits from any peaceful applications of nuclear explosions will be made available to NNWS party to the treaty on a non -discriminatory basis Zagorski, 29 March 2023 5 Nuclear disarmament  Article IV:  “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament , and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control” Zagorski, 29 March 2023 6 Three pillars of the NPT  nuclear non -proliferation  peaceful uses of nuclear energy  nuclear disarmament Zagorski, 29 March 2023 7 A “nearly universal” treaty  a “nearly universal” treaty  191 states parties, including the five “official” nuclear -weapon states: China, France, Russia, the UK and the US  three countries that have or are suspected of having nuclear weapons remained outside the NPT: India, Israel and Pakistan  the DPRK announced its withdrawal from the Treaty in 2003  South Sudan has yet to accede to the treaty Zagorski, 29 March 2023 8 Complementary instruments  export control  the Zanger Committee  the Nuclear Suppliers Group  negative security assurances Zagorski, 29 March 2023 9 Nuclear Weapons Free zones Zagorski, 29 March 2023 10 Challenges  how to ensure compliance by all parties (clandestine programs) and prevent illegal trafficking in nuclear materials and technology  the cases of Iraq, Libya, Iran  Abdul Qadeer Khan’s network assisting nuclear programs of the DPRK, Libya and Iran  how to prevent withdrawals from the NPT (DPRK in 2003 )  how to integrate “non -official” nuclear powers (India, Israel, Pakistan) who can not join the NPT as NWS  how to overcome the dispute between proponents of strengthening of the NPT regime and those linking the issue to nuclear disarmament Zagorski, 29 March 2023 11 Responses  strengthening the IAEA safeguards (making the 1997 second protocol mandatory and universal)  multilateral nuclear fuel cycle  fissile material cut -off treaty  improving nuclear safety standards, monitoring compliance and assisting individual states in complying with the standards (IAEA)  revitalization of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)  integration of non -official nuclear powers and banning the possibility to withdraw from he NPT? Zagorski, 29 March 2023 12 The 1968 “Grand bargain”  in exchange for the commitment of NNWS not to acquire nuclear weapons,  the NWS agreed to cease the nuclear arms race and accomplish the elimination of their nuclear arsenals  all parties agreed to recognize the right of the parties to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, in conformity with the basic non -proliferation obligations of the treaty Zagorski, 29 March 2023 13 The 1968 “Grand bargain”  the NPT is discriminatory by making a distinction between nuclear - and non -nuclear weapon states  the NNWS only agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons on two conditions:  they would not be blocked from acquiring civilian nuclear facilities and could get support in this regard (Art. IV),  and the NWS would promise to get rid of nuclear weapons (Art. VI)  without this deal, there would not have been a treaty Sauer, 2015 Zagorski, 29 March 2023 14 The 1995 NPT “extension package”  the 1995 Conference, in addition to reviewing the NPT, was charged with deciding whether the NPT should be extended and how to do so: for one period, for a rolling set of periods, indefinitely or not at all  states parties agreed on the indefinite extension of the treaty based on an interlinked and indivisible package of three decisions and a resolution  this package comprised the decisions on  strengthening the review process for the Treaty  principles and objectives for nuclear -non -proliferation and disarmament  extension of the Treaty, and  a resolution on the Middle East calling for the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the region Zagorski, 29 March 2023 15 The principles and objectives  recommendations and actions for nuclear non -proliferation and disarmament, including  the negotiation of a CTBT no later than 1996  immediate commencement and early conclusion of a fissile material cut -off treaty (FMCT)  determined pursuit by the NWS of systematic and progressive efforts to reduce nuclear weapons globally with the ultimate goal of eliminating those weapons  the strengthening of IAEA safeguards  facilitating cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear energy … Zagorski, 29 March 2023 16 Nonproliferation and nuclear arms control  ever since, states parties have for many years been divided over what their priorities should be and how to best balance non - proliferation and disarmament obligations  a major source of tension was the long -standing disagreement on whether nonproliferation or disarmament should take precedence Zagorski, 29 March 2023 17 Debates within the NPT review process  he 2000 “13 practical steps”  the 2010 “action plan”  to be discussed in the seminar Zagorski, 29 March 2023 18 Proliferation of nuclear disarmament initiatives  discussing nuclear disarmament in the review process, states did not really focus on the previously agreed outcomes but instead advanced competing approaches that now are hopelessly stalemated  the NAM states advocate a three -phase time bound ‘plan of action’  the Western States stand by a ‘step -by -step’ approach which has been slightly modified by the Non -Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative that calls for ‘building blocks’  the New Agenda Coalition supports a ‘taking forward nuclear disarmament' approach  Sweden has proposed ‘stepping stones’  a number of NNWS have developed the ‘humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons’ approach that led to the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)  the US advanced the concept of ‘creating the environment for nuclear disarmament’ Rauf 2000 Zagorski, 29 March 2023 19 Three -phase time bound ‘plan of action’  2020 – 2025: an international, non -discriminatory comprehensive convention on nuclear weapons that  prohibits the possession, development, production, acquisition, testing, stockpiling, transfer, use or threat of use of nuclear weapons  provides for their destruction  includes a single integrated multilateral comprehensive verification system to ensure compliance with the provisions of the convention  immediate implementation of several measures from the 1995, 2000 and 2010 review conferences  2025 – 2030: ratification and early entry into force of the comprehensive convention on nuclear weapons  2030 – 2035: the elimination of all nuclear weapons in an irreversible and verifiable manner Zagorski, 29 March 2023 20 Nonproliferation and disarmament initiative  Launched 2010 by Japan and Australia, now includes Canada, Chile, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, Nigeria, the Philippines, Poland, Turkey, and the UAE  the group seeks to mediate between the opponents in order to achieve balanced progress on both nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation on the basis of the 64 actions agreed in 2010  A particular emphasis is on involving the NWS in deliberations Zagorski, 29 March 2023 21 The New Agenda Coalition Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa  reiterate the validity of all 1995, 2000 and 2010 commitments, of the principles of irreversibility, verifiability and transparency  invite NWS to voluntarily present implementation plans with tentative time frames and benchmarks for progress  urge NWS to remove operational nuclear weapons from high -alert status  reiterate the urgent need to fully implement the 1995 resolution on the Middle East  acknowledge that a vast majority of States parties adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as an effective measure of nuclear disarmament … Zagorski, 29 March 2023 22 The Stockholm Initiative (“Stepping stones”)  joined by Argentina, Canada, Ethiopia, Finland, Indonesia, Japan, Jourdan, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, New Zeeland, Norway, ROK, Spain, Switzerland  22 “stepping stones” in four blocks:  reduce the salience of nuclear weapons  rebuild habits of cooperation in the international community  reduce nuclear risks; and  take steps to enhance transparency on arsenal size, control fissile materials and nuclear technology Zagorski, 29 March 2023 23 “Creating the environment for nuclear disarmament” US  establishing a working group to identify a list of issues or questions relating to the international security environment affecting disarmament prospects to be derived from an honest and constructive accounting of key security challenges  establishing subgroups to examine and address these factors  for example  measures to modify the security environment to reduce incentives for states to retain, acquire, or increase their holdings of nuclear weapons  institutions and processes NWS and NNWS can put in place to bolster nonproliferation efforts and build confidence in nuclear disarmament  interim measures to reduce the likelihood of war among nuclear -armed states Zagorski, 29 March 2023 24