Federal National Debt - Past Data - 11/18/2024 - PDF

11/21/2024 Our Federal National Debt What are the issues? 1 Federal Government Debt $19,971,082,595,663 --- 8/8/2017 – 10:25pm $20,539,971,285,332 --- 11/30/2017 – 9:55pm $21,155,292,712,100 --- 4/25/2018 – 9:30am $21,791,33...

11/21/2024 Our Federal National Debt What are the issues? 1 Federal Government Debt $19,971,082,595,663 --- 8/8/2017 – 10:25pm $20,539,971,285,332 --- 11/30/2017 – 9:55pm $21,155,292,712,100 --- 4/25/2018 – 9:30am $21,791,333,532,628 --- 11/27/2018 – 11:00pm $22,235,291,167,506 --- 4/24/2019 – 9:25am $23,054,617,493,502 --- 11/19/2019 – 10:35pm $24,867,832,034,901 --- 4/30/2020 – 8:28pm $26,625,578,231,454 --- 8/10/2020 – 11:10pm $27,281,673,042,956 --- 11/22/2020 – 10:37pm $28,998,989,411,132 --- 11/30/2021 – 10:44pm $31,308,280,243,641 --- 11/27/2022 – 8:02pm $31,696,036,405,977 --- 4/20/2023 – 11:39pm 2 1  11/21/2024 Federal Government Debt As of November 30, 2021 $28,998,989,411,132 11/30/2021 – 10:44pm 3 Federal Government Debt As of April 24, 2022 $30,406,512,149,900 4/24/2022 – 10:00pm 4 2  11/21/2024 Federal Government Debt As of November 27, 2022 $31,308,280,243,161 11/27/22 – 8:02pm 5 Federal Government Debt As of April 20, 2023 $31,696,036,405,977 4/20/23 – 11:39pm 6 3  11/21/2024 Federal Government Debt As of November 26, 2023 $33,798,781,320,195 11/26/23 – 9:00pm 7 Federal Government Debt As of November 18, 2024 $36,008,070,629 11/17/24 – 11:56pm 8 4  11/21/2024 https://usdebtclock.org/ 9 These are big numbers…. Growing numbers… Thinking out loud… Behind the scenes… Politicians Negotiate the Debt… Could it look like this?????? 10 5  11/21/2024 November 26, 2023 $33,798,781,320,195 11 A “Time” Perspective… Remember? Million Seconds = 11 Days (approx) Billion Seconds = 32 Years (approx) Trillion Seconds = 32,000 Years (approx) 12 6  11/21/2024 In regards to the debt… The Beat Goes On!! 13 “And the (debt) beat goes on…” As of 11/22/2016 $19,812,805,377,423 As of 8/8/2017 $19,971,082,595,663 As of 11/30/2017 $20,539,971,285,332 As of 4/25/2018 $21,155,292,712,100 As of 4/24/2019 $22,235,291,167,506 As of 11/19/2019 $23,054,617,493,502 14 7  11/21/2024 A “Taxpayer” Perspective Population approximately 329 Million Per www.census.gov Share of Debt Per Citizen….. $75,586 Update --- $80,929 Update again --- $88,143 And again ---$92,421 (approx) Then --- $93,928 Up to --- $95,183 Now $106,617 (Pop now @ 333 Million) 15 Total Public Debt FRED Graph $30,406B 16 8  11/21/2024 Gross Federal Debt as % of GDP FRED Graph 1965 - Current 135.9% Hello Covid 108.1% 17 Gross Federal Debt as % of GDP FRED Graph 1940 - Current 123.4% 119.1% 18 9  11/21/2024 US Debt to GDP Ratio 19 % of GDP Back to 1940 20 10  11/21/2024 No end in sight! 21 Even Buzz gets it! 22 11  11/21/2024 Terms Federal Budget – Est Expenditures vs. Est Tax Revenues – 12 month period – October 1 thru September 30 (Fiscal Period) – Congress / President ---- Cannot decide!!! Result --- NO budget, only spending expenditures 23 More terms… Budget Deficit – Expenditures exceed Tax Revenue - 12 mo. period National Debt (Public Debt) – Accumulation of the many “Budget Deficits” 24 12  11/21/2024 Federal Budget – FY 2022 WWW.CBO.GOV 25 26 13  11/21/2024 27 Why are we in debt? Historically - Start with Wars (Not the MAIN reason) – War for Independence – WWII, etc.. National Debt = 125% of GDP – Cold War, etc… – War on Terror (2001 and beyond, etc.) Macro Goals ---- Recessions – Spending Bills / Bailouts – For example --- TARP Bailout, Infrastructure Bills, etc. Social / Entitlement Programs – DIFFICULT to cut – Non-discretionary PANDEMIC! (w/ Govt Shutdown tossed in…) 28 14  11/21/2024 Entitlement Programs – DIFFICULT to cut – Non-discretionary This is incorrect… “difficult” is not the right word… The word is IMPOSSIBLE! “No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size. Government programs, once launched, never disappear. Actually, a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we'll ever see on this earth.” – Ronald Reagan, 10/27/64 29 Pre-COVID 30 15  11/21/2024 What are (some of) the problems with the debt? 31 What are (some of) the problems with the debt? Size!!! Interest on the debt!! – We are DODGING a bullet right now! – Interest rates won’t stay low forever UPDATE --- Interest rates rising! 2023 Annual Interest = $981 Billion – Kicking the can will become painful! 32 16  11/21/2024 Federal Interest on the Debt FRED Graph $981B Proportional Total Debt Increase “Dodging the bullet” 33 More problems… External Debt – Debt owed to foreign nations/residents, etc. “MANDATORY” Amount – 65% – So-called? Rate of Increase – 1980’s, 2000’s (late) Future Generation Issue Associated Trade Deficits 34 17  11/21/2024 Federal Debt Held by Foreign/Intl Investors - EXTERNAL FRED Graph $7.7T 35 Federal Debt Held by Foreign/Intl Investors - EXTERNAL FRED Graph $7.3T 36 18  11/21/2024 External Debt – Jan 2009 37 External Debt – 2019 (Non-confirmed) 38 19  11/21/2024 External Debt – Top 4 – May 2022 U.S. DEPT OF THE TREASURY https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp 39 Debt Held by Fed – Growing! FRED Graph $5.5 T 40 20  11/21/2024 Think of it this way…. (pre-COVID) From 2008-2016 we essentially added as much or more national debt than all the other years COMBINED! In the first 232 years --- just over $9 Trillion In the next 8 years --- just over $9 Trillion! (Think about that fact the next time someone suggests the Debt is a Non-Issue) (Of course, this is in Nominal Dollars, but it’s still an interesting observation.) 41 What about in Real Dollars… 8 years of debt exceeded the previous 28 years combined. Or, another measurement… - Previous 7 Presidential terms combined. (In 1983 Dollars) 42 21  11/21/2024 UPDATE – It gets worse… With the “Covid Generation”… Approx $6.5 Trillion in 2.5 years Covid 43 44 22  11/21/2024 Future Generation Issue – “Deficit Trials of 2017” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiBCRQL58_k – “The Doorbell” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whd3x6cgrlA 45 Federal Budget – FY 2022 One more time ($1.4 Trillion) DEFICIT Money IN = $4.9 T Money OUT = $6.3 T 46 23  11/21/2024 What can we do about it? Cut Spending ---- the DEFICIT! (duh) Taxes --- (Increase on who?) Default (???) – Really? ---- NO Re-Finance Sale of Assets Show US Citizens some seriousness REALITY --- not ONE answer 47 Assets -- U.S. Owns $$Trillions in Energy Resources 48 24  11/21/2024 49 What is the issue? Too much spending and not enough revenue… What is the congressional dilemma? “Super Committee” --- why did they “fail” “… (they) could not bridge the gap between two dramatically competing visions of the role government should play in a free society, the proper purpose and design of the safety net, and the fundamentals of job creation and economic growth.” - Congressman Hensarling (Tx) 50 25  11/21/2024 Budget Philosophies Balanced Budget – Revenues = Expenditures – Most states have – Amend the Constitution Attempted --- multiple times (1995) Cyclically Balanced – Think business cycle… – Works “in theory” Functional Finance – Meet Macro Goals (and keep voters happy!) – This is what we do! 51 Budget Summary $4.1 T 52 26  11/21/2024 Federal Debt v. Individual Debt 53 A suggestion… 54 27