World Population Growth

• The world population was fairly stable for a long time before experiencing enormous growth in recent centuries.

Introduction

• On October 31, 2011, the world population reached 7 billion, creating problems for the planet.
• The current world population is 8 billion.

Historical Population Trends

• The world population has only experienced one period of decline, which was during the bubonic plague.
• The industrial revolution led to rapid population growth in the last two centuries.

Future Population Changes

• Scientists predict a potential decrease in the growth rate in this century.
• Absolute growth calculates the number of people added, while relative growth relates it to the population.
• Relative growth is expressed in percent (%) or per mille (‰).
• Population is growing at a slower rate, future evolution is uncertain, and there are major differences between countries, with some even decreasing.

Population Descriptors

• Fertility rate: The average number of children per woman.
• Natural growth rate: The difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
• Population growth rate: The sum of net migration and natural growth.
• Emigration rate: The number of people leaving an area per year per thousand inhabitants.
• Net migration rate: The difference between the immigration rate and the emigration rate.
• Birth rate: The number of births in an area per year per thousand inhabitants.
• Immigration rate: The number of people moving to an area per year per thousand inhabitants.
• Mortality (death) rate: The number of deaths in an area per year per thousand inhabitants.

Relationships Between Fertility Rate and Birth Rate, and formulas

• High fertility rates mean a high birth rate.
• Birth rate - mortality rate = natural growth rate.
• Immigration rate - emigration rate = net migration rate.
• Natural growth rate + net migration rate = population growth rate.
• Natural growth rate - net migration rate ≠ population growth rate.

Population Growth in Specific Countries

• Japan is experiencing a population decrease.
• Nigeria has a very high population growth rate.
• Belgium's population will remain relatively stable.

Regional Population Growth

• Sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in Southwest Asia have natural growth rates similar to Nigeria (fast growth).
• Most countries in Central and Eastern Europe have natural growth rates similar to Japan (negative growth rate).
• Population evolution is determined by natural growth rate (birth rate – death rate) including migration balance.
• Natural growth is very high in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and is negative in Japan and many countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Population Growth Rate

• A country's population growth is determined by the natural growth rate (birth rate - death rate) and the net migration rate (immigration rate - emigration rate).
• The world population is increasing at a decreasing rate.
• Natural growth is positive in most countries, very high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and negative in Japan and parts of Central/Eastern Europe.

Population changes in Japan and Nigeria (1980-2020)

• Japan's population increased sharply until 1990, remained stable, and then decreased after 2010.
• Japan's natural growth rate decreased and became negative between 1980 and 2020.
• In Japan, the birth rate decreased, and the death rate exceeded the birth rate.
• Japan's birth rate is very low due to few children born per woman.
• Net migration rate in Japan (2017) is slightly positive.
• In Nigeria, the population grew strongly between 1950 and 2020.
• Nigeria's natural growth rate was very high with a slightly negative net migration rate.

Population Change in Belgium

• Between 1960 and 2020, the population in Belgium grew from 9 million to 11.5 million.
• Population in Belgium currently has a natural growth rate of 1‰.
• The natural growth rate is expected to become negative in the coming years because the birth rate is lower than the death rate.

Conclusion of Population in Certain Countries

• Japan will decrease slightly due to a negative natural growth rate.
• Nigeria will see a strong increase due to a high natural growth rate.
• Belgium will experience a slight increase as its natural growth rate is very low but still positive.

Demographic Transition Phenomenon

• Demographic transition is the shift from high birth and death rates in societies with minimal technology, education, and economic development, to low rates in societies with advanced technology, education, and economic development.

Demographic Transition Model

• Stage 1: High birth and death rates, stable or slow increase.
• Stage 2: High birth rate, falling death rate, rapid increase.
• Stage 3: Falling birth rate, falling death rate, increase slows down.
• Stage 4: Low birth rate, low death rate, low increase.
• Stage 5: Low birth rate, low death rate with little change.

Population Structure and Location

• Nigeria's population pyramid is wide at the base (a pyramid with bent sides), indicating many young people and very few old people.
• Nigeria's high fertility rate results in many young people, and low life expectancy limits the elderly population.

Population Evolution

• If life expectancy and birth rate trends continue, Nigeria’s population will evolve into a regular pyramid and then a tower.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has a share of young and elderly people comparable to that of Nigeria

Japan Population Structure

• Japan’s shape is described as an urn with few young people, many working people, and many elderly people.
• Japan's low fertility rate results in few young people, and high life expectancy contributes to a large share of elderly people.

Demographic trends

• Europe, Latin America, Asia and the Arab World have a comparable population with the demographic trends of Japan
• If trends continue, Japan’s shape will evolve into a toll.

Population Ageing

• Population ageing is an increasing median age due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy.
• An increasing proportion of elderly (65+) is referred to as ageing, while a decreasing share of young people (0-14) is ontgroening.

Population Structure Conclusion

• There are major differences in age structure between countries.
• Japan mirrors Europe, Oceania, and North America, with an aging population.
• Nigeria mirrors the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a very young population.

Consequences of Population Change on Society

• Japan experienced school closures due to a shortage of pupils.
• There are fewer young people because de-greening is happening in Japan.
• More people are retiring, leading to shortage of labour forces resulting ageing and de-greening for Japan.
• The government must invest more in healthcare due to the larger number of elderly to support the healthcare sector.
• To increase the number of births, Japan tries limiting the costs for young parents.
• Japan has tried making it easier for foreigners to migrate and encouraging its elderly to work past the age of 65.

Results of Aging and Decreased Birthrate in Japan

• Japan's ageing population is causing increased government expenses in pensions and healthcare.
• More than 80% of Japanese companies struggle to find enough workers.
• Japan has decided to allow more foreign workers, and companies are encouraged people to continue working past 70.
• To deal with shortages the businesses will allow employees to work until they are 80 years old.
• Since 2019, preschool education is free in Japan.
• Low income couples don't pay for childcare. The Japanese government will offer create 320,000 more places to remove children from the childcare waiting list.

How Young People Affect Education in Nigeria

• Classes are often overcrowded due to the very large number of young people.
• A rapid population growth in Nigeria has caused food, water, and job scarcity.
• In Nigeria, couples are encouraged to increase the spacing between childbirths and use contraceptives which failed as minimal contraceptives are used.

Nigeria's Birth Policy

• The Nigerian government encourages couples to extend the period between two births.

Comparison of Japan and Nigeria

• Japan is experiencing labour force shortages, higher healthcare costs and closing of schools, while Nigeria needs more schools, water, and jobs.
• Japan is reducing costs for young parents, easing migration rules, and allowing employees to work longer, while Nigeria is encouraging couples to have fewer children.

China's One-Child Policy

• China and India experienced major population growth before suffering from food shortages.
• China intervened with a coercive, authoritarian population policy, but the long-term effects of their one-child policy resulted into a social and economic disaster.
• India rewarded people for reducing birth rate rather than use forced policies.
• Reduction in population benefited China as they had more resources, the inhabitants in India are still living in poverty.

Dying Villages

• The number of elderly in Japan remains about the same, yet their share in the total population is increasing.
• The ageing will be strongest in rural areas of the country.
• Young people are moving to cities, leaving elderly behind.

Impact of Rural Flight in Japan

• Resulting in population decrease, decline in number of students and customers, and school and shop closings.
• Closed schools in rural Japan became aquariums, hotels, and inns.

Overall Summary of all Countries Mentioned

• Japan's population is ageing rapidly, resulting in an economy where many people are retiring while fewer enter the workforce, it causes a shortage of workers and the society to decline.
• With migration rules changing and financial incentives to move to rural areas, Japan is trying to change it's path.
• Nigeria experiences challenges in education, employment, food and water supplies due to very strong population growth.
• The government tries to encourage couples to have fewer children as well and use contracpetives.