East Asia's Fertility Crisis

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Questions and Answers

What is the primary reason governments might reconsider implementing pro-natalist policies aimed at working-class women?

The financial benefits would likely be overwhelmed by the costs of the programmes.

What potential benefits have been observed in trials such as the one in Flint and covid-19 assistance programmes?

Cash transfers have been shown to lift children's performance in early schooling and improve access to health care.

What is the expected outcome of delaying childbearing for a woman in terms of her lifetime earnings?

Each year a woman delays childbearing, her expected lifetime earnings increase.

What is the demographic trend observed in East Asia, and what are the consequences of this trend?

The demographic trend observed is a shrinking population, which means less innovation, manpower, and tax revenue. Signup and view all the answers

What is the relationship between parental education level and the likelihood of their children obtaining a bachelor's degree?

Only 8% of children of American-born non-college-educated parents are expected to obtain a bachelor's degree. Signup and view all the answers

What is the difference in lifetime earnings for a first-time American mother giving birth at 22 versus 35?

A first-time American mother in her mid-30s will earn more than twice what she would have earned had she had her first child aged 22. Signup and view all the answers

What health problems are associated with teenage mothers?

Women who give birth aged 15 to 19 are more likely to develop health problems. Signup and view all the answers

Why did policymakers seek to break the norm of young motherhood?

Policymakers sought to break the norm of young motherhood for a reason. Signup and view all the answers

What is the average number of offspring a South Korean woman would have had in 1970, and how does it compare to the average number of offspring in her childbearing years if she followed the example of her older peers?

4.5 in 1970, and 0.7 if she follows the example of her older peers. Signup and view all the answers

How much has the South Korean government spent on baby-making incentives since 2006, and what percentage of GDP does this represent?

Around $270bn, or just over 1% of GDP a year. Signup and view all the answers

What is the only rich country where the population is not shrinking due to a sufficient number of births, and what is the implication of this trend?

Israel, and it implies a growing population. Signup and view all the answers

What was the initial goal of policymakers in East Asia three decades ago, and how has the situation evolved since then?

To bring down teenage pregnancies, but the decline in birth rates has continued and policymakers now struggle to encourage women to have more children. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the decline in birth rates in East Asia, and how has it affected population growth strategies?

The decline in birth rates has led to a shortage of babies, and policymakers are now struggling to encourage women to have more children. Signup and view all the answers

What is the role of state-sponsored dating in South Korea's baby-making incentives, and what is the goal of such policies?

State-sponsored dating is one of the incentives offered to encourage people to have more children, with the goal of increasing birth rates. Signup and view all the answers

How has the decline in birth rates affected child poverty alleviation strategies, and what are the implications for policymakers?

The decline in birth rates has significant implications for child poverty alleviation strategies, as policymakers must now address the challenge of a shrinking population and potential labor shortages. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the 'missing' births in the context of population growth strategies, and what are the implications for policymakers?

The 'missing' births refer to the gap between the desired number of births and the actual number of births, and policymakers are seeking to address this gap through pro-natalist policies. Signup and view all the answers

What is the concern that has led many countries, including rich and middle-income ones, to consider increasing their pro-natal efforts?

The concern is the threat of demographic catastrophe due to low birth rates. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary target of existing pro-natalist policies in many European countries, and how do these policies benefit them?

The primary target is professional mothers, and these policies benefit them through earnings-related cash incentives, such as maternity payments and income-tax breaks. Signup and view all the answers

What is the rationale behind France's pro-natalist policies, as expressed by President Emmanuel Macron?

According to Macron, a nation's strength lies in its ability to generate a dynamic birth rate. Signup and view all the answers

How does Norway's approach to family policies differ from other countries, and what benefits do mothers receive?

Norway offers mothers nearly a year off work, with pre-pregnancy incomes provided by the state, as well as lots of child care. Signup and view all the answers

What is the goal of China's pro-natalist policies, and how does it incentivize parents to have more children?

The goal is to encourage parents to have three children, and China offers incentives such as child care and tax breaks to achieve this goal. Signup and view all the answers

What is the limitation of Singapore's approach to family policies, and how does it exclude certain groups?

Singapore's approach is limited because it only provides lump-sum payments for house deposits, which are beyond the reach of poor families. Signup and view all the answers

Despite France's high pro-natalist spend, what has been the trend in birth rates in the country since the turn of the millennium?

The birth rate has continued to decline, with fewer children born in 2022 than at any point since the second world war. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of France's pro-natalist spend in the context of other OECD countries?

France has the highest pro-natalist spend in the OECD club of mostly rich countries, disbursing 3.5-4% of GDP a year on family policies. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

The Baby Crisis in Rich Countries

In 1970, the average birth rate in East Asia was 4.5 children per woman, which decreased to 1.7 by the time women entering their 40s became fertile.
Since 2006, the South Korean government has spent around $270bn on baby-making incentives, such as tax breaks for parents, maternity care, and state-sponsored dating.
A South Korean woman will have an average of 0.7 children during her childbearing years if she follows the example of her older peers.

Declining Birth Rates Globally

Among rich countries, only Israel is having enough children to prevent its population from shrinking.
Birth rates are falling in most places, leading to a shortage of babies.
Childbearing produces positive externalities for society, including innovation, manpower, and tax revenue.

Consequences of Pro-Natal Policies

The financial benefits of pro-natal policies aimed at working-class women would probably be overwhelmed by their costs.
The best hope for such policies would lie in boosting the life outcomes of extra children.
Early evidence suggests that cash transfers lift children's performance in early schooling and improve access to health care.

Moral Considerations

Policymakers sought to break the norm of young motherhood for a reason, as women who delay childbearing tend to have higher lifetime earnings and better health outcomes.
Women who give birth at a young age are more likely to develop health problems, and their children are more likely to drop out of high school and grow up without both parents at home.

Global Response to the Baby Crisis

Many countries, including France, China, and the US, are considering or have implemented pro-natal policies to increase birth rates.
Examples of such policies include fertility tests, maternity leave, child care, tax breaks, and cash incentives.

Inequity in Pro-Natal Policies

Existing measures tend to benefit professional mothers, with cash incentives often being earnings-related rather than means-tested.
Policies often do not direct support to less affluent families, who may need it most.

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Description

The article discusses the decline in fertility rates in East Asia and the measures governments are taking to address the crisis. It highlights the impact of low birth rates on the economy and society.