Valuation Basics and DCF Models
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Questions and Answers

What cash flows are considered when valuing a firm?

Cash flows from assets are considered prior to any debt payments but after the firm has reinvested to create growth assets.

What must you subtract from firm value to derive equity value?

You must subtract the value of all debt.

If you subtract all debt from firm value, how does this affect the value of equity?

The value for equity will be lesser than the value derived from an equity valuation.

How does the discount rate reflect the cost of financing a firm?

<p>The discount rate incorporates the cost of raising both debt and equity financing, weighted by their proportional usage.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the meaning of present value in the context of firm valuation?

<p>Present value represents the value of the entire firm, reflecting all claims on the firm.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the formula for calculating Free Cashflow to Equity (FCFE)?

<p>FCFE = Non-cash Net Income - (Cap Ex - Depreciation) - Change in non-cash WC - (Debt repaid - Debt issued)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the equity reinvestment rate affect expected FCFE?

<p>Expected FCFE is calculated as Expected net income multiplied by (1 - Equity Reinvestment rate), indicating how much of the net income is retained.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What represents the value of equity in the context of non-cash assets?

<p>The value of equity is the sum of the value of equity in non-cash assets and cash.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the length of a high growth period imply for FCFE valuation?

<p>The length of a high growth period affects the present value of FCFE during that time, influencing overall valuation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is meant by 'stable growth' in relation to net income and FCFE?

<p>Stable growth refers to the scenario when net income and FCFE grow at a constant rate indefinitely.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary basis for intrinsic valuation?

<p>Intrinsic valuation is primarily based on the fundamentals or intrinsic characteristics of an asset, particularly its expected cash flows.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation estimate the intrinsic value of an asset?

<p>DCF valuation estimates intrinsic value by calculating the present value of expected cash flows while adjusting for risk through a discount rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role does the discount rate play in the valuation of a risky asset?

<p>The discount rate reflects the risk of the cash flows and is used to discount the expected cash flows of the asset over its life.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What two methods can be used to value a risky asset in DCF valuation?

<p>You can either discount expected cash flows at a risk-adjusted discount rate or discount certainty equivalents at the risk-free rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the 'IT' proposition imply regarding factors affecting expected cash flows?

<p>'IT' implies that if a factor does not affect expected cash flows or their riskiness, it will not impact the asset's value.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the importance of making estimates of expected cash flows in valuation.

<p>Making estimates of future expected cash flows is crucial as uncertainty is not an excuse for avoiding valuation; being wrong is acceptable.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is necessary for an asset to have value according to the 'DUH' proposition?

<p>For an asset to have value, it must have positive expected cash flows at some point during its lifetime.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are certainty equivalents in the context of DCF valuation?

<p>Certainty equivalents are guaranteed cash flows that replace expected cash flows, which can be discounted at the risk-free rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What mistake occurs when discounting cash flows to equity at the cost of capital?

<p>The value of equity is overstated by $175 when cash flows are incorrectly discounted.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the result when cash flows to the firm are discounted at the cost of equity without adjusting for debt?

<p>The value of equity is understated by $260 due to the improper valuation method.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Describe the error made when discounting cash flows to firm at the cost of equity and neglecting debt.

<p>This approach results in an overstated value of equity by $540.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do the cash flows represent in a generic DCF valuation model?

<p>The cash flows represent firm pre-debt cash flows and equity after debt cash flows.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a DCF model, what does the terminal value signify?

<p>The terminal value signifies the expected growth of the firm beyond the initial forecast period.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a common growth assumption for firms in a stable growth phase in DCF valuation?

<p>Firms in this phase are assumed to grow at a constant rate forever.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What key component is crucial to determine in a discounted cash flow valuation?

<p>Expected growth in operating earnings is a key component of DCF valuation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of accurately matching cash flows and discount rates in valuation?

<p>Proper matching ensures that valuations are not overstated or understated and reflect true value.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the cost of equity represent in a business valuation?

<p>The cost of equity represents the rate of return demanded by equity investors.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the formula for calculating the Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF).

<p>FCFF is calculated as after-tax operating income minus capital expenditures, depreciation, and the change in non-cash working capital.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factors are deducted from after-tax operating income to arrive at FCFF?

<p>The factors deducted are capital expenditures, depreciation, and changes in non-cash working capital.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Define the term 'Reinvestment rate' in the context of FCFF.

<p>The reinvestment rate is the portion of expected operating income that is needed to sustain growth.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected growth in equity income an essential factor in deciding the discount rate?

<p>It determines the cost of equity, which is crucial for valuation models like the Dividend Discount Model.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is included when calculating the value of equity during business valuation?

<p>The value of equity is calculated as the value of operating assets and cash &amp; non-operating assets minus debt.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the weighted average cost of capital derived in DCF analysis?

<p>The weighted average cost of capital is derived by averaging the costs of equity and debt weighted by their proportions in the overall capital structure.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can the retention ratio affect the expected dividends?

<p>A higher retention ratio can lead to lower expected dividends, as more net income is reinvested rather than paid out.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does 'Stable Growth' signify in the DCF process?

<p>Stable growth signifies a phase where operating income and FCFF grow at a constant rate indefinitely.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What relationship exists between free cash flow to equity (FCFE) growth and the cost of equity?

<p>When FCFE grows at a constant rate, it indicates a relationship that helps in assessing the cost of equity for valuation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the components necessary to assess the length of the high growth period in business valuation?

<p>The components include the present value of FCFF projected during the high growth period.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Define the concept of steady state in the context of the Dividend Discount Model.

<p>Steady state refers to the period when dividends grow at a constant rate forever, simplifying the valuation process.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the length of the high growth period signify in equity valuation?

<p>It signifies the duration during which dividends are expected to grow at an above-normal rate before transitioning to stable growth.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Firm Value

The value of a firm is the present value of all future cash flows from its assets, discounted at the cost of capital. This cost of capital reflects the risk of the firm's business activities and the way it finances its operations.

Equity Value

Equity value is the value of the firm's equity claims, which represents the ownership interest in the firm. It is calculated by subtracting the value of all debt from the firm value.

Cost of Capital in Firm Valuation

The cost of capital used to discount firm cash flows should reflect the risk of both debt and equity financing, and their proportions in the firm’s capital structure. This cost of capital is used to determine the present value of the firm's future cash flows, which represents the firm's value.

Cash Flows in Firm Valuation

Cash flows considered in firm valuation represent the cash flows generated by the firm's assets, before debt payments but after any reinvestments made to create future growth opportunities. These cash flows are used to determine the present value of the firm.

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Growth Assets

Growth assets are the assets that the firm invests in to create future growth opportunities. They are not included in the value of the firm's assets in place, but they are considered in the firm's cash flow forecasts to account for future growth.

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Intrinsic Value

The inherent worth of an asset based on its fundamental qualities, including anticipated cash flows and their uncertainty.

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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

A valuation method that estimates an asset's worth by discounting its expected future cash flows at a risk-adjusted rate.

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Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate

The rate used in DCF to reflect the risk associated with receiving future cash flows.

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Two Faces of DCF Valuation

The two primary ways to approach DCF valuation: discounting expected cash flows at a risk-adjusted rate or discounting certainty equivalents at the risk-free rate.

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"IT" Proposition

An idea in valuation: a change that does not alter expected cash flows or their risk does not impact the asset's value.

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"Don't Be a Wuss" Proposition

Valuation requires making estimates, even if those estimates might be wrong. Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction.

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"Duh" Proposition

A fundamental principle of valuation: an asset must be expected to generate positive cash flow sometime in the future to have value.

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Certainty Equivalent (CE) of Cash Flows

The cash flows that would be accepted with certainty, representing the equivalent value of uncertain expected cash flows. Used in DCF to discount at the risk-free rate.

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Expected growth in net income

The rate at which a company's net income is expected to grow over time.

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Payout ratio

The percentage of net income that a company chooses to pay out as dividends to shareholders.

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Retention ratio

The percentage of net income that a company retains for reinvestment in its business.

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Value of equity

The present value (PV) of all expected future dividends, discounted back to the present day.

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Length of high growth period

The period during which a company's net income and dividends are expected to grow at a high rate.

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Error 1: Discounting CF to Equity at Cost of Capital

Discounting cash flows to equity using the cost of capital results in an overstated equity value. This error arises because the cost of capital reflects both debt and equity financing, while equity cash flows only consider equity financing.

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Error 2: Discounting CF to Firm at Cost of Equity

Discounting cash flows to the firm using the cost of equity leads to an understated equity value. This error occurs because the cost of equity only considers equity financing, while firm cash flows encompass both debt and equity financing.

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Error 3: Discounting CF to Firm at Cost of Equity, forget to subtract out debt

Discounting cash flows to the firm using the cost of equity and forgetting to subtract debt results in an overstated equity value. This error arises from directly applying the firm's value to equity without accounting for debt financing.

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DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Valuation

A valuation method that uses projected cash flows and discounts them back to their present value to determine the company's intrinsic value.

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DCF: First Steps

The first step in DCF valuation involves determining the appropriate cash flows for the company. This step requires considering the specific characteristics of the company and its industry.

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Generic DCF Valuation Model

A generic DCF valuation model uses the projected cash flows of a company to derive its present value. The model considers the growth rate of the company, both pre- and post-debt, and calculates the terminal value, assuming a stable growth phase in the future.

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Terminal Value

The terminal value in a DCF model represents the present value of all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period. It is calculated by assuming the company reaches a stable growth phase where cash flows grow at a constant rate forever.

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Cost of Equity

The rate of return that equity investors demand for investing in a company. It reflects the risk associated with the company's operations and its financial structure.

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Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

The cash flow available to equity holders after all operating expenses, debt payments, and necessary reinvestments are made.

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Stable Growth Rate

The rate at which a company can grow its net income in the long term, assuming stable growth conditions.

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Equity Reinvestment

Investments made by the company to generate future growth, typically involving capital expenditures and working capital increases.

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High Growth Period

The period of time during which a company's net income and FCFE grow at a higher rate than the stable growth rate.

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Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)

The cash flow available to the firm after all operating expenses, taxes, and investments in fixed capital and working capital are deducted. It represents the cash flow generated by the company's core business operations.

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Expected Growth in Operating Income

The rate of return that a company is expected to earn on its future investments. It is determined by the expected growth rate of operating income and the reinvestment rate needed to sustain that growth.

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Reinvestment Rate

The rate at which a company reinvests its earnings back into its operations to support future growth. It indicates the percentage of operating income that is reinvested.

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Firm Valuation

Valuing the entire business, including both debt and equity, by discounting the future free cash flows to the firm (FCFF) at the company's cost of capital. This method determines the total value of the firm before subtracting the value of debt to arrive at the equity value.

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Cost of Capital

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) reflects the average cost of debt and equity financing used by the company. It represents the expected return required by investors for providing capital to the firm.

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Stable Growth Period

A period when a company's operating income and free cash flow are expected to grow at a stable and predictable rate for the foreseeable future. This period typically ensues after a period of high growth.

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Study Notes

Valuation Basics

  • Intrinsic valuation values an asset based on its fundamentals.
  • For cash flow generating assets, intrinsic value depends on expected cash flows and uncertainty of receiving them.
  • Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation estimates intrinsic value by calculating the present value of expected cash flows, adjusting for risk in cash flows or the discount rate.
  • Intrinsic valuation models predate DCF models.

The Two Faces of DCF Valuation

  • The value of a risky asset can be estimated by discounting expected cash flows over its life at a risk-adjusted discount rate.
  • Value of asset = E(CF₁) / (1+r) + E(CF₂) / (1+r)² + ... + E(CFₙ) / (1+r)ⁿ
  • The alternative approach uses certainty equivalents to replace expected cash flows, discounted at a risk-free rate:
    • Value of asset = CE(CF₁) / (1+rf) + CE(CF₂) / (1+rf)² + ... + CE(CFₙ) / (1+rf)ⁿ

Risk-Adjusted Value: Two Basic Propositions

  • The value of an asset is the risk-adjusted present value of its cash flows.
  • The "IT" proposition: If factors external to a company don't influence expected cash flows or their riskiness, they shouldn't affect value.
  • The "Don't Be a WUSS" proposition: Valuation requires estimates of future cash flows; uncertainty shouldn't be an excuse for failing to make those estimates.
  • The "DUH" proposition: For an asset to have value, its expected cash flows must be positive at some point during its life.
  • The "Don't Freak Out" proposition: Assets with earlier cash flows are usually more valuable. Later-cash-flow assets generate growth.

DCF Choices: Equity Versus Firm Valuation

  • Firm valuation: Value the entire business, examining all assets and liabilities, including debt.
  • Equity valuation: Value only the equity claim in a business.

Equity Valuation

  • In equity valuation, cash flows considered are those after debt payments and reinvestments for future growth.
  • The discount rate reflects only the cost of raising equity financing.

Firm or Business Valuation

  • In firm valuation, cash flows are considered before debt payments but after reinvestment occurs.
  • The discount rate represents the cost of raising both debt and equity financing.
  • Firm value reflects all claims on the firm.

Firm Value and Equity Value

  • To derive equity value from firm value, subtract the value of all firm liabilities (especially long-term debt).
  • Equity valuation will yield a lower value compared with firm valuation when considering only the equity claim.

Cash Flows and Discount Rates

  • This section provides example data and assumptions for a company's cash flows over five years.

Equity Versus Firm Valuation (Method 1)

  • This example calculates equity value by discounting expected cashflows to equity at a cost of equity.

Equity Versus Firm Valuation (Method 2)

  • This example calculates firm value by discounting cashflows to the firm at a cost of capital.

First Principle of Valuation

  • Discounting Consistency Principle: Never mix and match cash flows and discount rates.
  • Mismatching Effect: Mismatched cash flows and discount rates result in inaccurate valuations.
  • Upward bias is the result of discounting equity flows using the weighted average cost of capital.
  • Downward bias is the result of discounting pre-debt cash flows using the cost of equity.

The Effects of Mismatching Cash Flows and Discount Rates

  • This section presents specific examples showcasing errors in mismatching cash flows with applicable discount rates.
  • The use of a wrong discount rate will lead to inaccuracies, increasing or lowering estimated valuation.

DCF: First Steps

  • An overview of the DCF process

Generic DCF Valuation Model

  • Explains the steps and components of a generic DCF valuation model.

Same Ingredients, Different Approaches...

  • Shows how similar inputs are used in different models (Dividend Discount, FCFE, and FCFF).
  • Different values are needed for different types of models.

Start Easy: The Dividend Discount Model

  • Provides a simple model for valuing equity by discounting dividends.

Moving On Up: The "Potential Dividends" or FCFE Model

  • Introduces the FCFE model for valuing equity by discounting free cash flow to equity.

To Valuing the Entire Business: The FCFF Model

  • Explains how to use the FCFF model to value the entire firm by discounting free cash flow to the firm.

DCF: The Process

  • Outlines the DCF process in detail, including steps.

The Sequence

  • Presents the steps for conducting a DCF valuation, including considering past data, risk and discount rates, forecasting future cash flows, and dealing with closure issues and necessary adjustments.

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Valuation Basics PDF

Description

Explore the fundamentals of intrinsic valuation and discounted cash flow (DCF) models in this quiz. Understand how cash flows and risk adjustments affect asset valuation. Dive into key concepts that influence the value of risky assets.

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