Podcast
Questions and Answers
After the midterm elections, the
incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives than it did after the previous midterm
elections.
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Key 1 Party Mandate
There is no serious contest for the
incumbent-party nomination.
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 2 (Contest)
The incumbent-party candidate is
the sitting president.
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 3 Incumbency
There is no significant third-party
or independent campaign.
There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
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The economy is not in
recession during the election campaign.
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
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Real per-capita economic
growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth
during the previous two terms.
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
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The incumbent administration n
effects major changes in national policy.
The incumbent administration n effects major changes in national policy.
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There is no sustained social unrest
during the term.
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
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The incumbent administration is
untainted by major scandal.
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
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The incumbent
administration suffers no major failure in foreign or
military affairs.
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
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The incumbent
administration achieves a major success in foreign or
military affairs.
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
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The incumbent-party
candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
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The challenging-party
candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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Study Notes
Incumbent Party Advantages
- The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections than they did after the previous midterm elections.
- The incumbent-party nomination is uncontested.
- The incumbent party candidate is the current president.
- There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
- The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Real per-capita economic growth during the incumbent's term is equal to or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
Incumbent Administration Positive Factors
- The incumbent administration enacts significant changes to national policy.
- There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- The incumbent administration is free from major scandals.
- The incumbent administration avoids major failures in foreign or military affairs.
- The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger Party Disadvantages
- The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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