Understanding the State: Scope, Capacity, and Strength

The State

• A state is defined as a human community successfully claiming a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within a specific territory.
• Key elements of a state are its monopoly on violence and recognized territory.

State Scope

• State scope refers to the range of functions or goals undertaken by the government.
• Minimal states focus on defense, law and order, property rights, and taxation.
• Intermediate states include infrastructure, education, public health, and social welfare.
• Interventionist states engage in fostering markets and redistributing wealth.

State Capacity

• State capacity is the ability to effectively plan, implement policies, and enforce rules.
• Indicators of state capacity include levels of violent crime, tax capacity, and public goods provision.

State Strength

• State strength matters for citizen well-being, as stronger states produce better social outcomes.
• It is important for economies, as stronger states protect property rights and strengthen development.
• It crucial for democracy, as stronger states protect citizen rights and maintain the rule of law.
• State failure can result in dire consequences, such as corruption and instability.

"Brown Areas"

• "Brown areas," as defined by Guillermo O'Donnell, are regions within a generally strong state where the government's institutional capacity is weak or nonexistent.

Warlords and Houthis

• Warlords are military rulers of small states.
• The Houthis are a Shiite Muslim group, backed by Iran, that led a revolt against the Yemeni government.

Yemen

• Post-Cold War Yemen experienced warlord politics.
• The Saleh dictatorship eventually fell to a civil war.
• The Houthi threat led to the breakup of the state.

Importance of State Building

• State-building ensures safety and security.
• State-building protects property rights and fosters development.
• State-building promotes citizen well-being.

Comparing States

• States can be compared through state capacity, scope, and reach.

Protection Racket

• A protection racket is an illegal system where criminals threaten harm if money is not paid.

Bellicist Model of State-Building

• The bellicist model states "War made the state and the state made war." - Charles Tilly

Sovereignty

• Sovereignty is a state's ability to govern its territory free from external control.

Protection Pacts

• Protection pacts are a factor in contemporary state building, as seen in Singapore.
• One example is paying protection money to avoid property damage.

Central Provident Fund

• The Central Provident Fund is a compulsory savings plan for Singaporeans and permanent residents, primarily for retirement, healthcare, and housing.
• This fund was a solution to labor unrest in Singapore.

Anarchy and State Building

• War leads to the extraction of funds from the public through taxation which leads to the expansion of armies, police, and bureaucracy
• State-making provides public protection.

Differences in Post-Colonial State Building

• Four key limitations hindered post-colonial states in sub-Saharan Africa: geography, slavery, colonialism, and timing

Geographical Challenges

• Large land mass leads to fewer, less intense wars.
• Lower population density leads to fewer people to tax.

Impact of Slavery

• Slavery made states dependent on foreign revenues.
• Slavery created a vicious cycle of war for profit.
• Slavery depleted population resources.

Colonialism's Effects

• Colonialism built states from above, creating "skeletal" bureaucracies.
• Colonialism haphazardly created borders.
• State-building was conducted for extractive purposes and quickly withdrawn after countries gained independence.

Timing as a Factor

• The invention of sovereignty influenced state building.
• The reification of human rights played a role.

Twentieth-Century State-Building

• Post-colonial states are not doomed (consider Singapore).
• Singapore's state-building was influenced by counter-insurgency and protection pacts, built from threats of contentious politics and protection pacts

Singapore Model of Development

• Protests/uprising led to income tax implementation.
• Maria Hertog riots led to the expansion of military and police.
• Labor riots led to the creation of the Central Provident Fund and the rise of the PAP (People's Action Party).

Economic Development

• It is defined as the improvement of living standards through economic growth.

Culture and Economic Development

• Max Weber theorized that Protestants are endowed with the spirit of capitalism.
• Protestantism encourages individualism.
• The Calvinist principle of predestination and ascetic work (work as a divine calling) contributed to the spirit of capitalism.
• Ascetic work leads to frugality/rationalism which leads to capitalism.
• Protestant societies should be more individualistic, and thus more likely to achieve high levels of economic development.
• Protestant societies should have higher work ethic, and thus more likely to achieve high levels of economic development

Geography and Economic Development

• Montesquieu, Diamond, and Sachs theorized how geography impacts economy.
• Profitable agricultural goods are hard to grow in tropics.
• Landlocked countries have less ability to transport goods and receive technology.
• Disease environment in tropics impacts production.

Institutions and Economic Development

• North, Acemoglu, and Robinson theorized how institutions determine prospects for development.
• Institutional structure determines prospects for development ("Countries differ in their economic success because of their different institutions... Inclusive economic institutions foster economic activity, productivity growth, and economic prosperity " p. 73-75)
• Institutions are the rules of the game (North 1990).
• Political institutions lead to economic institutions which leads to economic development.
• Countries with inclusive political institutions should be more likely to have inclusive economic institutions.
• Countries with inclusive economic institutions should be more likely to have higher levels of development.

Predestination

• Predestination teaches that some people are destined to go to heaven and others are not.
• Calvinist theologians later revised the doctrine such that methodical ascetic work and profit pursuit might lead to heaven.

Ascetic work

• Work is characterized as a "divine calling."
• Work requires self denial.

Reversal of Fortunes

• The richest ex-European colonies in 1500 would be the poorest by the end of the 20th century, but could not be argued?

Institutions

• Institutions are defined as the rules of the game/humanly devised constraints.
• Inclusive versus extractive institutions exist.
• An example is North Korea versus South Korea.

Inclusive vs. Extractive Economic institutions

• Inclusive institutions include many people in the governing process.
• Extractive institutions allow a small group of people to exploit the rest.

Modernization Theory

• Modernization is a transition from an agrarian to industrial society.

"Traditional Man"

• Religious; belief in magic
• Rural, uneducated
• Group-oriented (family, clan, village)
• Particularistic

Modern Man

• Secular; belief in science
• Urban, educated
• Individualistic
• Universalistic, open to new people and ideas

Rostow's Five Stages of Development

• Traditional society
• Pre-conditions for take-off
• Take-off
• Drive to Maturity
• High Mass Consumption

Implications of Modernization Theory

• A single path to development/convergence exists.
• Countries are expected to develop rapidly and approximate the West.
• With development comes wealth, social progress, democracy.

Relative Backwardness

• Timing of development matters, underdevelopment is not always a burden, development trajectories are country-specific
• "Backward" countries exist in a world of development but must adapt to benefit from it.
• The path of development will be conditioned by the advantages/constraints that a country faces, not from importing others' development strategies wholesale.

Dependency Theory

• The trajectory of development in wealthy countries disadvantages underdeveloped ones.
• Countries exist in a world system created by capitalism.
• Core countries attained success by preying upon peripheral countries.
• To achieve development, the periphery must break away from connections with the core and develop internally.

Core vs. Periphery

• The core and the periphery are terms to describe the behavior of rich and poor nations in a global capitalist environment regarding the theory of dependent development, countries do not develop in a vacuum
• Developed nations may be hindering developing nations from industrializing.

Implications of Modernization Theory

• A single path to development/convergence exists.
• Countries are expected to develop rapidly and approximate the West.
• With development comes wealth, social progress, democracy.

Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs)/East Asian "Tigers"

• Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have been fueled by exports and rapid industrialization, and have achieved high levels of economic growth since the 1960s

The Developmental State

• A state that manipulates and guides economic policy to achieve economic development (usually in a short period of time.)
• It is Interventionist, bureaucratic, investment friendly and autonomous

Chaebol

• Large family-owned business conglomerates in Korea that fueled much of its industrial development.

Law of Ill Gotten Gains

• Corporations were forced by the South Korean government to give money to industry or they were punished.

Import Substituting Industrialization (ISI) vs Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI)

• ISI aims to achieve development by replacing foreign imports with domestic production of industrial goods.
• ISI implements restrictions on imports of final goods and an increase of technology transfer and capital imports.
• ISI protects domestic industry in infancy awaiting Export of final goods when competitiveness is achieved
• EOI is joining the global economy by selling the goods curated from ISI phase

Park Chung-hee in South Korea (Phase II)

• Encouragement of private investment into industry lead to offered favorable terms for government-backed loans, granted lucrative contracts to development firms, and the Law of Ill-Gotten Gains
• Provision of government protection for development and labor repression

Development in South Korea

• Accumulation of foreign capital
• Exploitation of traditional industries
• Investment into manufactures

Phase 2 of development

• Nurturing of infant industry in manufacturing
• Investment into human capital

Phase 3 of development

• Promotion of competition and export orientation

Plural Democracy

• A state in which there is more than one center of power

Regime

• Set of formal and informal rules and norms that define where power is located and how it is used.

Polyarchy

• Rule by many, including contestation and inclusion.

Modernization and Democracy

• There is a genetic argument for democracy and a survival model of democracy.

Genetic Model of Democracy

• Democracy is more likely to emerge when GDP increases.

Survival Model of Democracy

• Democracy is more likely to survive when GDP increases.

Dahl's Measurements of Democracy

• Right to vote
• Right to be elected
• Right to compete for support and votes
• Free and fair elections
• Freedom of association
• Freedom of Expression
• Alternative sources of information
• Institutions for making public policies depend on votes and other expressions of preferences.

Culture and Democracy

• Certain cultural traits facilitate democracy: education, diversity, free-thinking (individualism), trust, and tolerance.
• Some religions are incompatible with democracy because there is no separation between Church and state and religion is hierarchal.
• Critiques of this view suggest it is Euro-centric and historically inaccurate.

Modernization and Democracy

• A single path to development exists with disparities and all good things that go together
• Economic development leads to social change leading to democracy.

Leadership and Democracy

• Who is in power and what they do matters: leadership characteristics and strategic choices of leaders.
• Critiques of voluntaristic theories suggest leadership characteristics are very unique.

Third Wave of Democracy

• This is a wave of democratization in South America, Eastern Europe, and Africa characterized by the defeate of dictatorial or totalitarian rulers.
• Caused by declining ideological legitimacy of authoritarian regimes, economic crisis and weakened performance legitimacy, military defeats, shifting policies of international actors, and snowballing/demonstration effects.

Performance Legitimacy

• This argues that economic performance makes them a legitimate ruler.

Apartheid

• Laws (no longer in effect) in South Africa that physically separated different races into different geographic areas.

African National Congress

• An organization dedicated to obtaining equal voting and civil rights for black inhabitants of South Africa.
• It was founded in 1912 as the South African Native National Congress and changed its name in 1923.
• It eventually brought greater equality.

F.W. DeClerk

• He became last president of South Africa during the Apartheid and helped Mandela in the segregated Africa they lived in

Nelson Mandela

• He was released from prison to become the nation's first democratically elected president in 1994.
• He maintained property rights of white South Africans.
• He granted amnesty to those guilty of crimes under apartheid.
• He developed a power sharing agreement with National Party and opposition parties.
• He oversaw return of exiles and integration of special militias into armed forces.

Pacted Transition

• A transition from authoritarian to democratic rule that is privately negotiated by elites within the regime and opposition.

Linkage

• Density of organizational, economic, and political ties with the West.

Leverage

• Ability of Western states to pressure an external party to adopt policy.

Competitive Authoritarianism

• It combines features of democracy and autocracy to create an unfair playing field.
• Often accompanied by formal (if weak) institutions
• Suppression of rights often concentrated in one (or more) of four areas.

Democratic Consolidation vs Democratic Transition

• Democratic consolidation is the change from authoritarian to a democratic regime.
• democratic transition is the process by which a new democratic order becomes institutionalized
• Consolidation is seen with linkage or leverage
• Transition is seen with military defeat, snowballing, or international pressure.
• High linkage and high leverage = democratic consolidation.
• High linkage and low leverage = competitive authoritarianism.
• Low linkage and high leverage = competitive authoritarianism.
• Low linkage and low leverage = stable autocracy.

Authoritarianism

• This is rule by an exclusive political oligarchy.
• Political control exerted by a small body of elites
• Absence of power-sharing between ruling faction and competing factions.

Monarchical Dictatorship

• Regime lead by monarch who served as head of state and head of government.
• Right to rule based on traditional legitimacy
• One of the most durable types of authoritarian regime.

Military Dictatorship

• A government in which the armed forces have the absolute power to rule.
• Regime initiation usually due to economic crisis or popular upheaval.
• One of the most likely regime to transition to democracy.

Dominant Party Dictatorship

• Regime lead by dominant party that always wins elections.
• Regime survival based on closure of the political system or manipulation of elections.
• Most frequent popular authoritarian regime type

Personalistic Dictatorship

• Regime in which all power lies with a single individual, typically with a cult of personality.
• Regime and state highly tied to leader, with all political positions granted by him.
• Most vulnerable regime type.

Problem of Authoritarian Power Sharing

• How to keep the populace happy
• Revolution proofing

Problem of Authoritarian Control

• How to keep elites happy
• Coup-proofing

Coercive Apparatus

• State's ability to control, mobilize, and intimidate population (i.e. military, police, intelligence agencies).

Muhkabarat

• The Iraqui Intelligence Service. Example of coercive apparatus.

Preference Falsification

• Communicating a preference that differs from one's true preference, often because one believes the conveyed preference is more acceptable socially.

Survival Strategies for Authoritarian Regimes

• Rents, repression, and Co-optation

Rents

• Can pay off population.

Repression

• Helps to eliminate opposition (murder/jailing of opponents, preference falsification)

Co-optation

• Enables rulers to "buy" loyalty with political power.
• Allows autocrats to play divide and rule strategies, to create in-fighting among opposition.

Rentier State

• A country that obtains much of its revenue from the export of oil or other natural resources.

Xi Jinping

• Current President of China

Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

• Authoritarian party that has ruled China from 1949 to the present.

Single/Dominant Party Authoritarianism

• party is in control

Consultative Authoritarianism

• Where one individual determines the course of action.

The CCP as Source of Resilience

• CCP provides performance legitimacy, meritocratic patronage, consultative authoritarianism and strategic repression

Performance Legitimacy

• A form of political legitimacy derived from policies which lead to positive material outcomes for citizens (i.e. economic growth).

Meritocratic Patronage

• The notion of a political system in which economic goods or political power are vested in individual people based on ability and talent, rather than wealth or social class.

The CCP as Source of Fragility

• Personalism, public dissatisfaction with the CCP, and succession issues.

Comparative Politics

• The study of the similarities/differences in political developments within one country and across subnational units.

Mill's Method of Agreement

• If two or more occurrences of a phenomenon have only one relevant factor in common, that factor must be the cause
• (most-different-systems): compares cases that are otherwise different but agree on one dimension, producing a similar outcome

Mill's Method of Difference

• (most-similar-systems): compares cases that are otherwise similar but differ on one dimension, producing variant outcomes

Falsifiable Hypothesis

• Can be ruled out by data

Spuriousness

• When an apparent relation between two concepts is actually the result of some third concept (confound) influencing both of them

Omitted Variable Bias

• The specific type of bias that results from the failure to include a variable that belongs in our regression model

Independent Variable

• Variable that is manipulated
• A variable whose variation does not depend on another and is often used to explain variation in another variable

Dependent Variable

• The outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable.
• A variable whose variation depends upon or can be explained by another variable

Endogeneity

• The issue that cause and effect are not often clear, in that variables may be both cause and effect in relationship to one anotherState

  A state is a human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force in a given territory.
  
  -Monopoly on Violence
  -Recognized Territory

  State Scope

  Different functions or goals taken on by the government (i.e. What does the state do?)
  
  Minimal
  -Defense
  -Law and Order
  -Property Rights
  -Taxation
  
  Intermediate
  -Infrastructure
  -Education
  -Public Health
  -Social welfare
  
  Interventionist
  -Fostering markets
  -Redistributing wealth

  State Capacity

  Ability to plan and implement policies, enforce rules (i.e. How well can the state get things done?)
  
  Indicators of state capacity:
  -violent crime
  -tax capacity
  -public goods provision

  State Strength and why it matters

  Why does it matter? :
  A. for citizen well-being: stronger states produce better social outcomes (human development)
  B. For economies: stronger states protect property rights and strengthen development (economic development)
  C. For democracy: stronger states protect citizen rights and maintain the rule oflaw (?)
  D. State failure (think of Yemen, President Saleh of 27 years stole $60 billion of government funds, most failed state in the world)

  "Brown areas" (Guillermo O'Donnell)

  Areas within an otherwise strong state where the government's institutional capacity is weak or non-existent

  Warlords

  military rulers of small states?

  Houthis

  Shiite Muslim group backed by Iran that led the revolt against the Yemeni government?

  Yemen

  -Post-Cold War era with warlord politics
  a. The Saleh dictatorship
  b. Saleh's overthrow and the Yemeni civil war
  c. The Houthi threat and the breakup of the state

  Why is state building important?

  -Ensures safety and security
  -Protects property rights and fosters development
  -Promotes citizen well-being

  How do you compare states?

  Through state capacity, scope, and reach

  Protection Racket

  an illegal system in which criminals threaten to harm you or your property if you do not give them money

  Bellicist model of state-building

  "War made the state and the state made war." - Charles Tilly

  Sovereignty

  Ability of a state to govern its territory free from control of its internal affairs by other states.

  Protection pacts

  A factor in contemporary state building that help establish the successfulness of Singapore
  Paid mafia so they don't damage your property (tilly)?

  Central provident fund

  -a compulsory comprehensive savings plan for working Singaporeans and permanent residents primarily to fund their retirement, healthcare, and housing needs
  -solution to labor unrest
  -scheme?

  How does anarchy build a state/ The Origins of Strong/Weak States in Europe

  -War made the state and the state made war\

  • A war occurs which leads to extraction of funds from the public to fund the war (through tax revenue) and this leads to te expansion of armies, police, and buereaucracy (state-making). which leads to public protection

  Differences in post-colonial state building

  Four key limitation hindered post-colonial states in sub-Saharan Africa
  \

  1. Geography
     a) large land mass = fewer, less intense wars
     b) lower population density = fewer people to tax
     \
  2. Slavery
     a) Made states dependent on foreign revenues
     b) Created vicious cycle of war for profit
     c) Depleted population resources
     \
  3. Colonialism
     a) Built states from above, created "skeletal" bureaucracies
     b) Haphazardly created borders
     c) State-building conducted for extractive purposes and quickly withdrawn upon independent
     \
  4. Timing
     a) invention of Sovereignty
     b) reification of Human rights

  Twentieth-Century State-Building Success

  -Post Colonial states aren't doomed (consider Singapore)
  
  Singapore: counter-insurgency and protection pacts, built from threats of contentious politics and protection pacts
  
  Singapore model of development:
  
  -Protest/uprising leading to income tax
  -Maria Hertog riots which led to expansion of military and police
  -Labor riots which led to Central Provident Fund and PAP

  Economic Development

  The improvement of living standards by economic growth.

  Theoretical perspectives on economic development (Culture)

  Culture (Weber)- Protestants endowed with the spirit of capitalism
  -Protestantism encourages individualism
  -Calvinist principle of predestination and ascetic work (work as adivine calling)
  -Ascetic work → frugality/rationalism → capitalism
  
  Hypothesis 1 : Protestant societies should be more individualistic, and thus more likely to achieve high levels of economic development
  Hypothesis 2: Protestant societies should have higher work ethic, and thus more likely to achieve high levels of economic development

  Theoretical perspectives on economic development (Geography)

  Geography (Montesquieu, Diamond, Sachs)
  -Profitable agricultural goods are hard to grow in tropics
  -Landlocked countries have less ability to transport goods and receive technology
  -Disease environment in tropics impacts production

  Theoretical perspectives on economic development (Institutions)

  Institutions (North, Acemoglu and Robinson)
  -Institutional structure determines prospects for development ("Countries differ in their economic success because of their different institutions... Inclusive economic institutions foster economic activity, productivity growth, and economic prosperity " p. 73-75)
  
  -Instituions are the rules of the game (North 1990)
  
  -Political institutions lead to economic institutions which leads to economic development
  
  Hypothesis 1: Countries with inclusive political institutions should be more likely to have inclusive economic institutions
  Hypothesis 2: Countries with inclusive economic institutions should be more likely to have higher levels of development

  Predestination

  taught that some people were destined to go to heaven and others—despite anything they might do in their lifetimes—would not
  
  Calvinist theologians later revised the doctrine: believers who organized their life around methodical ascetic work and the pursuit of profit might enter heaven after all. This produced great psychological rewards for the faithful

  Ascetic work

  -Work as a "divine calling."
  -Work requiring self denial

  Reversal of fortunes

  Argument that the richest ex-European colonies in 1500 would be the poorest by the end of the 20th century?

  Institutions

  (1) Rules of the game/humanly devised constraints
  (2) Inclusive vs. extractive institutions
  (3) North Korea vs South Korea

  Inclusive vs. Extractive Economic Institutions

  inclusive: many people included in the governing process (goes w/ bargaining states) a critique of this claim may be that colonialism is a prerequisite for inclusive economic institutions
  
  extractive: a small group of people do their best to exploit the rest (predatory states)

  Modernization theory

  A. Background: England and the Industrial Revolution
  B. Modernization as a transition from an agrarian to industrial society
  a. "Traditional Man"
  i. Religious; belief in magic
  ii. Rural, uneducated
  iii. Group-oriented (family, clan, village)
  iv. Particularistic
  
  b. Modern Man
  i. Secular; belief in science
  ii. Urban, educated
  iii. Individualistic
  iv. Universalistic, open to new people and ideas
  
  C. Rostow's Five Stages of Development\

  1. Traditional society\
  2. Pre-conditions for take-off\
  3. Take-off\
  4. Drive to Maturity\
  5. High Mass Consumption
     
     D. Implications of Modernization Theory
     a. Single path to development/convergence (underdeveloped countries simply at earlierstages of development)
     b. Countries are expected to develop rapidly and approximate the West (the future ofBolivia is England)
     c. "All good things come together" (with development comes wealth, social progress, democracy)

  Relative backwardness

  1. No single path to development (timing of development matters, underdevelopment is not always a burden, development trajectories are country-specific)
  
  2. "Backward" countries exist in a world of development but must adapt to benefit from it
  
  3. Path of development will be conditioned by the advantages/constraints that a country faces, not from importing others' development strategies wholesale (i.e. banking in France and Germany, railroads in Russia)

  Dependency theory

  Trajectory of development in wealthycountries disadvantages underdeveloped ones
  -Countries exist in a world system created by capitalism
  -Core countries attained success by preying upon peripheral countries
  -To achieve development periphery must break away from connections with core, and develop internally

  Core vs. Periphery

  The core and the periphery are terms often used by dependency theorists to describe the behavior of rich and poor nations, respectively, in a global capitalist environment. The core nations are Western economic powers such as the United States and Western Europe, while the periphery are the developing nations which are taken advantage of by the core.
  
  According to the theory of dependent development, countries do not develop in a vacuum, and as a result, the nations of the periphery do not have the luxury of developing in the same market-led approach taken by England. Proponents of Dependency Theory argue that rather than aiding in the development process of Third World nations, developed nations are, in fact, hindering them from industrializing.

  Implications of Modernization Theory

  a. Single path to development/convergence (underdeveloped countries simply at earlier stages of development)
  b. Countries are expected to develop rapidly and approximate the West (the future of Bolivia is England)
  c. "All good things come together" (with development comes wealth, social progress, democracy)

  Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs)/East Asian "Tigers"

  Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. All four economies have been fueled by exports and rapid industrialization, and have achieved high levels of economic growth since the 1960s.

  Neoclassical economics and comparative advantage

  The developmental state

  A state that manipulates and guides economic policy to achieve economic development (usually in a short period of time)
  
  Interventionist
  Bureaucratic
  Investment friendly
  Autonomous

  Chaebol

  Large family-owned business conglomerates in Korea that fueled much of its industrial development

  Law of Ill Gotten Gains

  Corporations were forced by the South Korean government to give money to industry or they were punished.

  Import-substituting Industrialization (ISI) versus Export-Oriented Industrialization (EOI)

  ISI: an economic policy which aims to achieve development by replacing foreign imports with domestic production of industrial goods.
  
  -Restrictions on imports of final goods
  -Increase of technology transfer and capital imports
  -Protection of domestic industry in infancy
  -Export offinal goods when competitiveness is achieved
  
  
  EOI: joining the global economy bu selling the goods curated from ISI phase

  Park Chung-hee in South Korea (Phase II)

  1. Encouragement of private investment into industry
  -Offered favorable terms for government-backed loans
  -Granted lucrative contracts to development firms
  -Law of Ill-Gotten Gains
  2. Provision of government protection for development
  3. Labor repression

  Development in South Korea

  Precursor
  2. Phase I
  -Accumulation of foreign capital
  -Exploitation of traditional industries
  -Investment into manufactures
  
  3. Phase 2
  -Nurturing of infant industry in manufacturing
  -Investment into human capital
  
  4. Phase 3
  -Promotion of competition and export orientation

  Plural Democracy

  A state in which there is more than one center of power

  Regime

  Set of formal and informal rules and norms that define where power is located and how it is used

  polyarchy

  -rule by many
  -includes contestation and inclusion

  Modernization

  A. Genetic argument for democracy
  B. Survival model of democracy

  Genetic model of democracy

  Democracy more likely to emerge when GDP increases

  Survival Model of Democracy

  democracy more likely to survive when GDP increases

  Dahl's measurements of democracy

  1. Right to vote
  2. Right to be elected
  3. Right to compete for support and votes
  4. Free and fair elections
  5. Freedom of association
  6. Freedom of expression
  7. Alternative sources of information
  8. institutions for making public policies depend on votes and other expressions of preferences

  Why are some countries democratic while others are not (culture)

  Certain cultural traits facilitate democracy:
  -education
  -diversity
  -free-thinking (individualism)
  -certain religions are incompatible with democracy (Confucionism and Islam) because there is no separation between Church and state, religion is hierarchial, socities are communal rather than individualistic
  -trust
  -tolerance
  
  Critiques of this view:
  Euro-centric
  Historically inaccurate

  Why are some countries democratic while others are not (modernization)

  1. Single path to development
  2. Disparities in development will not be persistent
  3. All good things go together
  
  Economic development → social change → democracy

  Why are some countries democratic while others are not (leadership)

  Who is in power and what they do matters:\

  1. Leadership characteristics (honesty, charisma, etc)\
  2. Strategic choices of leaders (include vs. exclude, distribute vs. extract)
     
     (consider George Washington)
     
     Critiques of voluntaristic theories (George Washington volunteered to step down as President):
     
     Leadership characteristics very unique (almost singular)
     
     Requires systematic evidence that characteristics or choices of leaders matter
     
     Hard to make arguments falsifiable

  Third Wave of Democracy

  a wave of democratization that is characterized by the defeat of dictatorial or totalitarian rulers in South America, Eastern Europe, and some parts of Africa.
  
  Caused by:\

  1. Declining ideological legitimacy of authoritarian regimes\
  2. Economic crisis and weakened performance legitimacy\
  3. Military defeats\
  4. Shifting policies of international actors\
  5. Snowballing/demonstration

  performance legitimacy

  argues that economic performance makes them a legitimate ruler

  Apartheid

  Laws (no longer in effect) in South Africa that physically separated different races into different geographic areas.

  African National Congress

  An organization dedicated to obtaining equal voting and civil rights for black inhabitants of South Africa. Founded in 1912 as the South African Native National Congress, it changed its name in 1923. Eventually brought greater equality?

  F.W. DeClerk

  became last Ugandan president and helped Mandela in the segregated Africa they lived in

  Nelson Mandela

  South African statesman who was released from prison to become the nation's first democratically elected president in 1994 (born in 1918)
  
  -Maintained property rights of white South Africans
  -Granted amnesty to those guilty of crimes under apartheid
  -Developed power sharing agreement with National Party and opposition parties
  -Return of exiles
  -Integration of special militias into armed forces

  Pacted transition

  a transition from authoritarian to democratic rule that is privately negotiated by elites within the regime and opposition (occurred in South Africa under DeClerk)

  Linkage

  density of organizational, economic, and political ties with the West

  Leverage

  ability of Western states to pressure an external party to adopt policy

  Competitive Authoritarianism

  Combines features of democracy and autocracy to create an unfair playing eld
  
  Often accompanied by formal (if weak) institutions
  
  Suppression of rights often concentrated in one (or more) of four areas
  -Elections
  -Legislature
  -Judiciary

  Democratic Consolidation vs democratic transition

  -Democratic consolidation change from authoritarian to a democratic regime
  -democratic transition is the process by which a new democratic order becomes institutionalized
  Ex-Consolidation is seen with linkage or leverage transition is seen with military defeat, snowballing, or international pressure
  
  High linkage and high leverage = democratic consolidation
  High linkage and low leverage = competitive authoritarianism
  Low linkage and high leverage = competitive authoritarianism
  Low linkage and low leverge = stable autocracy

  Authoritarianism

  rule by an exclusive political oligarchy
  
  -Political control exerted by a small body of elites
  
  -Absence of power-sharing between ruling faction and competing factions

  Monarchical dictatorship

  Regime lead by monarch who served as head of state and head of government
  
  Examples: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Jordan, Swaziland
  
  Right to rule based on traditional legitimacy
  
  Most durable type of authoritarian regime

  Military dictatorship

  a government in which the armed forces have the absolute power to rule
  
  Examples: Egypt, Algeria, Chile (under Pinochet), Pakistan (under Musharraf)
  
  Regime initiation usually due to economic crisis or popular upheaval
  
  Most likely regime to transition to democracy

  Dominant party dictatorship

  Regime lead by dominant party that always wins elections
  
  Examples: China, Cuba, Eritrea, Laos
  
  Regime survival based on closure of the political system or manipulation of elections
  
  Most frequent popular authoritarian regime type

  Personalistic dictatorship

  Regime in which all power lies with a single individual, typically with a cult of personality
  
  
  Regime and state highly tied to leader, with all political positions granted by him*
  
  Most vulnerable regime type

  Problem of Authoritarian Power Sharing

  1. How to keep the populace happy
  2. Revolution proofing

  Problem of authoritarian control

  1. How to keep elites happy
  2. Coup-proofing

  Coercive apparatus

  State's ability to control, mobilize, and intimidate population. Military, police, intelligence agencies, etc.

  Muhkabarat

  The Iraqui Intelligence Service. Example of coercive apparatus.

  Preference falsification

  the act of communicating a preference that differs from one's true preference, often because one believes the conveyed preference is more acceptable socially

  Survival strategies for Authoritarian Regimes (How to stay in power when everyone wants you dead!)

  -Rents (can pay off population)
  -Repression (Helps to eliminate opposition (murder/jailing of opponents, preference falsification)
  -Co-optation\

  1. Enables rulers to "buy" loyalty with political power\
  2. Allows autocrats to play divide and rule strategies, to create in-fighting among opposition

  Rentier State

  A country that obtains much of its revenue from the export of oil or other natural resources.

  Xi Jinping

  President of China

  Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

  Authoritarian party that has ruled China from 1949 to the present

  Single/dominant party authoritarianism

  Consultative authoritarianism

  where one individual determines the course of action

  The CCP as source of resilience

  Performance legitimacy- A form of political legitimacy derived from enacting policies which lead to positive material outcomes for citizens (i.e. economic growth)
  
  Meritocratic patronage- the notion of a political system in which economic goods or political power are vested in individual people based on ability and talent, rather than wealth or social class
  
  Consultative authoritarianism
  
  Strategic repression

  The CCP as source of fragility

  1. Personalism
  2. Public dissatisfaction with the CCP
  3. Succession

  Comparative Politics

  The study of the similarities/differences in political developments within one country, across subnational units...

  Mill's Method of Agreement

  if two or more occurrences of a phenomenon have only one relevant factor in common, that factor must be the cause
  
  (most-different-systems):compares cases that are otherwise different but agree on one dimension, producing a similar outcome

  Mill's Method of Difference

  (most-similar-systems): compares cases that are otherwise similar but differ on one dimension, producing variant outcomes

  falsifiable hypothesis

  can be ruled out by data

  Spuriousness

  when an apparent relation between two concepts is actually the result of some third concept (confound) influencing both of them

  Omitted variable bias

  the specific type of bias that results from the failure to include a variable that belongs in our regression model

  Independent variable

  variable that is manipulated
  
  a variable whose variation does not depend onanother and is often used to explain variation in another variable

  Dependent Variable

  The outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable.
  
  a variable whose variation depends upon or can beexplained by another variable

  Endogeneity

  The issue that cause and effect are not often clear, in that variables may be both cause and effect in relationship to one another