Understanding Decision-Making in Complexity
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Questions and Answers

What characterizes well-ordered domains?

  • They are unpredictable and complex.
  • They allow for systematic thinking and calculations. (correct)
  • They require reliance on stories and examples.
  • They are ambiguous and change rapidly.

    • Why are the ten claims about thinking more effectively sometimes misleading?

  • They are always applicable to complex situations.
  • They work best in well-structured environments. (correct)
  • They are based on intuition rather than analysis.
  • They simplify the knowledge needed for success.

    • How should decisions be made in ambiguous and complex situations according to the content?

  • By maintaining vague goals and objectives.
  • By relying solely on intuition and rules.
  • By following established patterns from past decisions.
  • By using scientific analyses and evidence. (correct)

    • What can lead to blunders in decision-making in complex scenarios?

    <p>Using intuition when scientific analysis is needed.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of decision-making changes in ambiguous situations?

    <p>The clarity of goals.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements about complex domains is true?

    <p>They require tracking of interrelated factors.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do individuals typically navigate complex and unpredictable situations?

    <p>By using intuition supported by narratives.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a significant risk when using intuition in decision-making?

    <p>It can overlook important scientific evidence.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do decision support systems often overlook when simplified?

    <p>Context of the situation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an identified outcome of excessive information gathering according to the text?

    <p>Creation of more doubts about information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What distinguishes a puzzle from a mystery in the context of uncertainty?

    <p>Puzzles can be solved by critical data; mysteries cannot.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can cause uncertainty besides a lack of necessary information?

    <p>Conflicting information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How should effective decision support systems be designed according to the passage?

    <p>By integrating both human intuition and analytical reflection</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements about feedback is most accurate?

    <p>Feedback relies heavily on the process of sensemaking.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What assumption is made about the human mind in the context of decision-making?

    <p>Humans are prone to simplifying complexities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a potential downside of designing decision-support systems based on ideology?

    <p>It can neglect observational data and real-world applicability.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What have Meehl and his followers demonstrated about expert intuitions?

    <p>Statistical formulas can be more accurate than experts' estimates.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a limitation of relying solely on statistics for decision-making?

    <p>They can lead to overthinking and worse decisions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the content suggest about conscious thought in decision-making?

    <p>Conscious deliberation limits attention to key features.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does unconscious thought contribute to decision-making according to the content?

    <p>It allows for the integration of more information.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a risk associated with emphasizing logic over intuition?

    <p>It can lead to important factors being overlooked.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can happen when one tries to assess facts without context?

    <p>It typically results in overthinking.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might sophisticated analyses still fail according to the content?

    <p>They rely too heavily on previous events.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the phrase 'driving while looking only through the rear view mirror' imply in decision-making?

    <p>Relying only on past data can be misleading.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary focus of management by discovery (MBD)?

    <p>Revising and replacing goals based on new learning</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why does claim 8 matter in management contexts?

    <p>It prevents adaptation to complex and unpredictable circumstances</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do many leaders typically respond to adversity according to the content?

    <p>By increasing controls to manage complexities</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a significant risk of pursuing objectives-based management in complex scenarios?

    <p>It might lead to goal fixation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT a basic step in effective risk management?

    <p>Ignoring complex risks altogether</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'wicked problems' refer to in the context of management?

    <p>Complex issues that lack clear resolutions</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does management by discovery differ from objectives-based approaches?

    <p>MBD promotes learning and flexibility in goal formation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What assumption do many management tools and training programs make?

    <p>Goals are clear and stable</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How are solutions to wicked problems evaluated?

    <p>They are judged as good or bad.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is meant by 'emergent goals'?

    <p>Goals that become clearer as we learn more.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary challenge in advocating for a balance between automatic and reflective thinking?

    <p>Valuing employees' tacit knowledge.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Under which condition is decision making primarily the responsibility of the decision maker alone?

    <p>When decisions can leverage tacit knowledge.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What outcome can occur if the balance between human and algorithmic decision making shifts too far?

    <p>Worsening of expertise among decision makers.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following describes the scenario where the decision-support system has the final say?

    <p>Humans provide inputs, but the system decides.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a significant risk when using decision-support systems in complex conditions?

    <p>Inability to adapt to changing environments.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Street Lights and Shadows Summary

    • This summary examines human error, particularly in ambiguous situations, using the example of the Gimli Glider incident.
    • The incident revealed several breakdowns rooted in flawed procedures and miscommunication, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on standard procedures in complex scenarios.
    • The authors use the concept of "mental gears" to illustrate that humans need both standard procedures and improvisation in response to changing conditions.
    • The human's ability to perceive is different in bright light than in shadows; both methods of perception are equally valid.
    • Successful decision making in complex situations involves the ability to rapidly adapt to changing conditions and rely on both explicit and tacit knowledge.

    Complex and Unpredictable Situations

    • Well-ordered domains are structured and stable allows us to effectively predict the future.
    • Complex domains, however, are less structured and more unpredictable.
    • Recognizing these differences and the limitations of rigid procedures is crucial for success.

    A Passion for Procedures

    • Procedures (including checklists) are useful tools, but organizations often overestimate their importance.
    • Over-reliance on procedures can lead to mindlessness, complacency, and a decline in expertise.
    • Procedures alone are insufficient in complex settings where context is crucial for effective decision-making.
    • Procedural guides can be out of date and inflexible, potentially leading to inefficiencies and unintended consequences.

    Seeing the Invisible

    • Tacit knowledge (or implicit understanding) is crucial for navigating complex situations.
    • Tacit knowledge is the understanding of how to do something without being able to explain it.
    • Expertise is built on nuanced perceptual skills, pattern recognition, and the ability to adapt procedures to the circumstances.
    • Mental models are essential for understanding complex systems, but they have limitations and may cause oversimplification or bias.

    How Biased is Our Thinking?

    • Decision biases are flaws or errors in human judgment that can significantly affect decision-making processes.
    • These biases are frequently present in both expert and ordinary decision-making.
    • The anchoring and adjustment heuristic, and the representativeness heuristic are examples of common biases.
    • Recognition of these biases is important as they can lead to inaccurate judgements or decisions.

    We are Talking About Limitations, Not Irrationality

    • People use heuristics (mental shortcut) to ease the cognitive load of decision-making which may result in errors, but these errors are not irrational.
    • Reasoning strategies are generally effective in complex natural settings.
    • The systematic errors are less problematic outside the laboratory, and frequently lead to adequate functioning.

    What Can We Do to Protect Ourselves from the Limitations without Sacrificing the Strengths?

    • Build expertise that rely more on experience
    • Design better methods, as well as better data formats.
    • Employ choice architects: someone that guides people towards a particular choice.

    Intuition Versus Analysis

    • Statistical analysis and expert judgement can provide helpful insights, but they can't eliminate all biases in decision-making.
    • Using intuition and analysis may be essential

    To Make a Decision, Generate Several Options and Compare Them

    • Decision-making often involves generating options, and contrasting and comparing them
    • A formal process for identifying options and comparing them is useful before deciding.

    Experts and Errors

    • Expertise is built upon experience and the development of sophisticated mental models.
    • Expert's mental models evolve as a result of experience
    • Experience is associated with better decision making

    The Risk of Risk Management

    • Attempting to predict all potential risks may be counterproductive in complex environments.
    • Risk management methods can miss important problems in complex environments, and reduce the ability of the organization to adapt.

    The Cognitive Wavelength

    • Common ground is necessary to coordinate actions with others. The ability to rapidly interpret and respond requires mutual understanding of each other's context.
    • Leaders can create common ground through clear roles and ground rules in advance. Clear instructions work better than vague instructions.
    • Common Ground is not guaranteed. Different experiences will always affect our perceptions and perspectives.

    Unlearning

    • Unlearning is an important aspect of complex learning.
    • It involves abandoning old or inaccurate mental models and perspectives in favour of more accurate ones as result of experience.
    • It is often difficult to unlearn beliefs or ways of doing things, even when they're flawed or obsolete

    Automating Decisions

    • Decision support systems can be useful in well-ordered domains but are less effective in complex situations.
    • Algorithms and automated decisions need to be adapted for the nature of the task at hand; otherwise, they can be harmful
    • To make appropriate use of automated decision-making processes in complex or ambiguous circumstances, humans require a degree of oversight

    The Limits of Feedback

    • Feedback is not always sufficient to improve performance.
    • Finding out the cause-effect relationship is particularly important in complex and ambiguous situations.
    • Learning and performance may suffer if feedback is overwhelming or hard to make sense of
    • Understand feedback and put it into context; it is usually better to address the underlying assumptions of the feedback.

    Correcting the Dots

    • Sensemaking involves connecting and interpreting data within a framework of understanding.
    • In complex situations, our understanding of the data will be affected by our past experiences.

    When Patience Is a Vice

    • Jumping to conclusions without sufficient evidence can be harmful and hinder future discoveries.
    • Sometimes a cautious approach of waiting for more information is necessary if you want to build confidence and trust in a decision.
    • An open mind is not necessarily always useful
    • Individuals can fixate on premature conclusions or miss opportunities to adjust their course of action.

    The Risk of Risk Management

    • It is important to understand that attempts to perfectly categorize and eliminate risks in advance may be detrimental

    Moving Targets

    • Goals in complex situations are often not clearly defined at the outset, and they can change over time.
    • Flexibility and adapting to changing circumstances are crucial in complex projects.

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    Description

    This quiz explores the intricacies of decision-making within well-ordered domains and how individuals approach complex, ambiguous situations. It addresses common misconceptions about effective thinking and the potential pitfalls that intuition can present in uncertain contexts. Test your knowledge on these vital principles of decision-making.

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