Understanding Autocracies and Power Dynamics

Autocracies: Understanding Power and Stability

• Autocratic regimes face unique challenges in maintaining power, unlike democracies
• Data collection is difficult and accuracy is contentious
• Authoritarian leaders, like democratic ones, pursue goals, but have less constraint on means
• Key challenges for autocrats include securing compliance from allies (oligarchs) and the broader population

Oligarchs and Compliance

• Oligarchs are crucial for autocratic regimes, driving economic growth and funding initiatives
• Autocrats maintain control by preventing any single oligarchic group from becoming too powerful
• State policies (e.g., publicized arrests, legal actions) keep oligarchs in check
• Autocrats need to understand their population's preferences, transmit their information, and control behavior
• Balance is required between understanding and not empowering the population

Selectorate Theory

• Political survival in autocracies often relies on a small, key group of supporters (winning coalition)
• Co-opting a few is easier and cheaper compared to a large number of individuals
• Dictators exert influence because they can replace subordinates easily
• Understanding outside options (alternatives to support) is critical for understanding power dynamics
• A leader's behavior is heavily influenced by the make-up of the selectorate & winning coalition.

Regime Stability and Incentive Alignment

• Dictators increase taxes when the winning coalition is small, depressing economic activity but compensating through private rents.
• With a larger winning coalition, rewards shift towards public goods and lower taxes
• Loyalty is influenced by the difference in privileges (private rents) between those in and out of the winning coalition
• A larger winning coalition leads to more public goods but less private rents, affecting overall welfare in a non-linear relationship
• Regime stability depends on successful management of the "guardianship dilemma" (balancing military power and control)

The Guardianship Dilemma

• Autocratic regimes need a strong military to maintain power
• Military cooperation is crucial; however, dictators must delegate some military power.
• Delegation creates the risk that military leaders might challenge or overthrow the autocrat
• Dictator types (Civilian, Coup, Rebel) face different challenges in maintaining power and military allegiance

Rebel Regimes

• Rebel regimes often endure years of struggle to achieve power.
• They are typically more sturdy because of their longer power struggles.
• Delegation of power (appointing a minister of defense) during conflicts improves military performance & strengthens alliances
• Power-sharing, as shown in power delegation to subordinates, is a crucial element of durable rebel regimes.

Limited Authoritarian Government

• Power-sharing institutions (like legislatures) in autocracies can affect stability.
• Institutions are effective only when they alleviate the commitment problem between the leader and allies.
• The threat of rebellion by allies must be credible to motivate them to avoid harming the leader.
• Institutions' effectiveness in autocracies can create more predictable transitions.