The Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian War: Background and Conflict

• The conflict between Russia and Ukraine began in February 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas war.

• The conflict has included naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and heightened political tensions, with many brief ceasefires but no lasting peace and few changes in territorial control.

• In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which was internationally condemned and resulted in many countries imposing sanctions against Russia.

• The war has resulted in a refugee crisis and tens of thousands of deaths.

• The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to Ukraine and Russia maintaining close ties, and Ukraine agreed to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon state.

• The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial, leading to the Orange Revolution and protests against the outcome.

• In 2013, large peaceful protests erupted in response to Ukraine's decision not to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.

• In 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups took place in major cities across the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, leading to the Donbas war.

• Armed conflict began in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist forces and Ukraine in April 2014, with the separatists declaring the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

• By the end of April 2014, Ukraine announced it had lost control of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the conflict escalated throughout the year.

• In July 2014, Russian-controlled forces shot down a passenger aircraft, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, as it was flying over eastern Ukraine.

• The conflict has involved a hybrid approach by Russia, combining disinformation tactics, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support.Chronology of the War in Donbas

• In mid-August 2014, Russia dispatched a "humanitarian convoy" of trucks across the border, which Ukraine called a "direct invasion."

• By August 2014, Ukraine's "Anti-Terrorist Operation" had shrunk the territory under pro-Russian control, and approached the border.

• Russia began a conventional invasion on 25 August 2014, denying that Russian soldiers had crossed the border "by accident."

• By mid-August 2014, an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 troops were fighting in the Donbas on the separatist side, and only 40–45% were "locals."

• Russian forces captured Novoazovsk on 25 August 2014 and began deporting Ukrainians who did not have an address registered within the town.

• The conflict settled into static trench warfare around the agreed line of contact after the Minsk II agreement was reached on 15 February 2015.

• From March to April 2021, Russia commenced a major military build-up near the border, followed by a second build-up between October 2021 to February 2022 in Russia and Belarus.

• Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state in a 21 February speech, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood."

• On 21 February 2022, Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.

• On 22 February 2022, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia.

• Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists in response to Putin's directive, and Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists.

• Russia began to evacuate civilians from the border regions on 23 February 2022, and launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.Overview of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

• The conflict began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea and has escalated into a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces starting on February 24, 2022.

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected Russia's claims about neo-Nazis and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas.

• The Russian invasion began with missiles and airstrikes hitting across Ukraine, including Kyiv, followed by a large ground invasion along multiple fronts.

• Russian attacks were launched from multiple fronts, including a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a southeastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk.

• The war has caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis within Europe since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s, with over 7.4 million refugees fleeing Ukraine.

• The UN has documented war crimes by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, including deliberate attacks against civilian targets, massacres of civilians, torture and rape of women and children, and indiscriminate attacks in densely populated areas.

• Gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine have been ongoing, with Russia reducing gas transit volumes across Ukraine and building the Nord Stream pipeline to bypass Ukraine.

• The conflict has included elements of hybrid warfare, including cyberwarfare and propaganda and disinformation campaigns.

• Russia has claimed that NATO military infrastructure was being built up inside Ukraine and was a threat to Russia, characterizing the conflict as a proxy war started by NATO.

• NATO supports Ukraine's right to self-defense and has scrambled aircraft to intercept Russian military aircraft flying near alliance airspace.

• The conflict has been internationally condemned as a war of aggression, with many countries imposing new sanctions on Russia and providing humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.

• As of February 2023, it is estimated that the number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000.Overview of Reactions to Russian Military Intervention in Ukraine

• Ukrainian President accused Russia of provoking a conflict by backing the seizure of the Crimean parliament building and other government offices on the Crimean peninsula.

• Ukraine placed the Armed Forces on full alert and combat readiness.

• NATO and the United States pledged military support to Ukraine, and the US provided $1.5 billion in military aid during the 2010s.

• The intervention caused the Swiss franc to climb to a 2-year high against the dollar and 1-year high against the Euro, and the Russian stock market declined by more than 10 percent.

• A poll of the Ukrainian public, excluding Russian-annexed Crimea, showed that 89% of those polled opposed the 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

• A poll of the Crimean public in Russian-annexed Crimea showed that 82% of those polled fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia.

• A joint poll conducted in 2020 found that over half of respondents in the breakaway regions controlled by the DPR/LPR wanted to join Russia, while less than one-tenth wanted independence and 12% wanted reintegration into Ukraine.

• An August 2014 survey by the Levada Centre reported that only 13% of those Russians polled would support the Russian government in an open war with Ukraine.

• In March 2022, a week after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 98% of Ukrainians said they did not believe that any part of Ukraine was rightfully part of Russia, according to polls.

• In April 2022, approximately 74% of the Russians polled supported the "special military operation" in Ukraine, suggesting that Russian public opinion has shifted considerably since 2014.

• The United States passed legislation providing $40 billion in new military and humanitarian foreign aid to Ukraine in May 2022, marking a historically large commitment of funds.

• After expending large amounts of heavy weapons and munitions over months, the Russian Federation received combat drones and loitering munitions from Iran, deliveries of tanks and other armoured vehicles from Belarus, and reportedly planned to trade for artillery ammunition from North Korea and ballistic missiles from Iran.