The Future of Earth's Population: Shrinkage, Aging, and Depopulation

The Future of Earth's Population: Shrinkage, Aging, and Depopulation

• World population is still growing, expected to reach 9-10 billion from the current 8 billion, but the growth rate has been falling since the 1960s.
• Fertility rates are declining globally, leading to population aging and eventual depopulation.
• If current fertility rates persist, China's population will decrease by 800 million, South Korea's by 63%, Poland's and Japan's by half, Italy's and Thailand's by 44%, and Eastern Europe's by 40% by the end of the century.
• Many countries are already experiencing population aging, with a significant increase in the number of older people.
• The number of young people entering India's workforce has already peaked, despite being the world's most populous country.
• The demographic shift towards an older population presents challenges and opportunities for society.
• In a status quo world, societies may struggle to maintain economic models based on infinite population growth and face issues with social safety nets and military recruitment.
• Failure to adapt and cling to the status quo can lead to system overload, higher labor costs, social security bankruptcy, restricted immigration, and increased division and hatred.
• In a resilient world, societies compete to attract talent globally and invest in human capital to harness the demographic dividend of young and growing populations.
• Longer working lives and strategic use of technology can help societies adapt to population aging.
• Investing in health and sustainable consumption is crucial for a resilient world.
• Countries at the start of the demographic transition have more time to plan and institute sustainable systems, while those experiencing faster demographic shifts must act quickly to mitigate risks and poverty in older ages.