The Future Cost of Global Warming

The Future Cost of Global Warming

• The rate of atmospheric CO₂ increase depends on future fossil fuel use and decarbonization efforts (replacing fossil fuels with green energy and removing existing CO₂).
• CO₂ emissions are projected to increase for the next few decades and possibly throughout the century.
• Before 2015, a "business as usual" scenario projected CO₂ levels of 750-1000 ppm, last seen before humans evolved, with ~4°C global warming by 2100.
• The 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to ≤1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Current policies aim for peak CO₂ emissions by 2050-2075, but projected warming is ~2.4-2.7°C by late this century.
• Reaching net-zero emissions by 2045-2050 is needed to lower atmospheric CO₂ levels.

Is the Weather Getting Worse?

• Some weather extremes are now 2-3 times more likely than before 2000 due to global warming.
• Many recent extreme weather events have no historical comparison for over 200 years.

Extreme Heat Conditions

• Rising temperatures fuel intense heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and wildfires.
• Summer heat waves of 2022-2024 broke all-time records globally.

Places that are wet will get very wet & places that are drier will get drought

• A warmer atmosphere holds more water, leading to increased evaporation and more extreme precipitation events.
• Warmer, drier areas experience more frequent and prolonged droughts, especially in places like western US.

Increasing Intensity of Extreme Precipitation Events and Tropical Storms

• Warmer air holds more moisture and energy, resulting in more intense and frequent storms.
• Tropical storms travel further inland, causing greater damage and flooding.

Drought-prone Regions

• Drought events will become more frequent and severe in drought-prone areas of the world.
• Recent wet periods may not permanently end ongoing drought conditions.

Increased Frequency & Intensity of Wildfires

• Record-breaking wildfires have occurred frequently in the past two decades.
• Climate change impacts wildfires through hotter summers, drier conditions, and more intense fire weather events.
• CA's long-term fire suppression policies exacerbated wildfire damage.

Climate Change knows no political or justice boundaries

• Drought, and other climate change impacts, transcend geographical boundaries and significantly affect heavily populated areas.
• Climate change harms communities with historically low contributions to global warming.

Change in the Oceans

• Oceans absorb most of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
• Increased ocean temperatures lead to more frequent and intense marine heat waves harming coral reefs, and global warming.
• Oceans hold less oxygen, affecting marine life.

What about the Fate of Frozen Water & Global Sea Level?

• Glaciers and ice sheets are melting due to global warming.
• Rising sea levels pose a threat to coastal communities worldwide.
• Polar ice melting at accelerated rates, decreasing Arctic sea ice thickness significantly.

The 6th Largest Extinction Event in Earth History

• Current climate change is causing a mass extinction of plant and animal species, faster than previous extinction events.
• Altered habitats, ecosystems, and species interactions threaten biodiversity.
• Humans are primarily responsible for this global extinction crisis.

What can the past teach us regarding our future?

• Climate change can accelerate and intensify quickly even if the initial cause remains consistent.
• Past climate change events reveal abrupt shifts and long recovery times.
• Our choices in the next decade or two will significantly impact future climate conditions and potential catastrophic events.

It is not all doom and gloom

• Global warming is a serious problem requiring significant societal changes.
• Global cooperation and individual efforts are crucial in addressing climate change.