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Questions and Answers
What is the projected permanent resident population of Switzerland by 2070 according to the reference scenario?
What is the projected permanent resident population of Switzerland by 2070 according to the reference scenario?
What trend is influencing the increase in the number of children per woman in Switzerland?
What trend is influencing the increase in the number of children per woman in Switzerland?
What does the low scenario forecast for Switzerland's population growth?
What does the low scenario forecast for Switzerland's population growth?
What is the expected life expectancy for women in Switzerland by 2070?
What is the expected life expectancy for women in Switzerland by 2070?
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According to the reference scenario, how will immigration trends change in Switzerland post-COVID-19?
According to the reference scenario, how will immigration trends change in Switzerland post-COVID-19?
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Switzerland's permanent resident population is expected to grow to 10.5 million by 2070.
Switzerland's permanent resident population is expected to grow to 10.5 million by 2070.
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Life expectancy for men in Switzerland is projected to increase from 82.2 years to 89 years by 2070.
Life expectancy for men in Switzerland is projected to increase from 82.2 years to 89 years by 2070.
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The number of children per woman in Switzerland is projected to decrease from 1.52 in 2020 to 1.42 by 2050.
The number of children per woman in Switzerland is projected to decrease from 1.52 in 2020 to 1.42 by 2050.
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According to the reference scenario, the total number of people aged 65 or over in Switzerland is expected to increase.
According to the reference scenario, the total number of people aged 65 or over in Switzerland is expected to increase.
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The Federal Statistical Office predicts that migration to Switzerland will increase significantly post-COVID-19.
The Federal Statistical Office predicts that migration to Switzerland will increase significantly post-COVID-19.
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Match the population growth scenarios with their descriptions:
Match the population growth scenarios with their descriptions:
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Match the factors leading to an increase in the number of children per woman:
Match the factors leading to an increase in the number of children per woman:
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Match the expected life expectancy of men and women in Switzerland by 2070:
Match the expected life expectancy of men and women in Switzerland by 2070:
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Match the projected population statistics for Switzerland in 2070:
Match the projected population statistics for Switzerland in 2070:
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Match the trends influencing Switzerland's population growth:
Match the trends influencing Switzerland's population growth:
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By 2070, Switzerland's population is expected to grow from 8.6 million to ______ million.
By 2070, Switzerland's population is expected to grow from 8.6 million to ______ million.
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Advances in medicine are expected to increase life expectancy for men in Switzerland to ______ years by 2070.
Advances in medicine are expected to increase life expectancy for men in Switzerland to ______ years by 2070.
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The number of children per woman in Switzerland will rise from 1.52 in 2020 to ______ by 2050.
The number of children per woman in Switzerland will rise from 1.52 in 2020 to ______ by 2050.
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According to the reference scenario, Switzerland will be attractive for ______ immigration after the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the reference scenario, Switzerland will be attractive for ______ immigration after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Today, there are approximately ______ million people aged 65 or over living in Switzerland.
Today, there are approximately ______ million people aged 65 or over living in Switzerland.
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Study Notes
Switzerland's Population Projections
- Switzerland's population is projected to grow from 8.6 million in 2020 to 11.1 million in 2070 (reference scenario).
- The proportion of individuals aged 65 and over will increase significantly, from 18.7% in 2020 to 25.6% in 2050 and 27% in 2070.
- Life expectancy is projected to increase to 89 years for men and 91 years for women in 2070.
- Average number of children per woman is projected to rise from 1.52 in 2020 to 1.62 in 2050.
Scenarios for Population Growth
- Reference scenario: Assumes a good post-pandemic economy attracting labor immigration, but migration somewhat weaker than previously.
- High scenario: Projects higher economic performance leading to rapid population growth, possibly reaching 13 million by 2070.
- Low scenario: Assumes lower economic growth, resulting in slower population growth (9.4 million by 2070).
Factors Influencing Growth
- Immigration: Crucial for population growth, compensating for low birth rates.
- Aging population: Increasing number of individuals aged 65 and over, outpacing the population growth of younger demographics.
- Fertility rate: Rising, but still not sufficient to offset population decline without immigration.
- Economic conditions: Strongly correlated with immigration and ultimately population growth.
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Description
How much will Switzerland's population grow by 2070? In 2019, the Federal Statistical Office developed three scenarios to estimate Switzerland's future population development. They show that the number of people over the age of 65 is rising sharply and that immigration is crucial for population growth. The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) regularly updates its population growth estimates. In doing so, it takes into account current demographic trends as well as political, economic and social changes. The FSO prepares three basic scenarios for the estimates. The first scenario, or "reference scenario," is based on the trends of recent years. The second scenario ("high") is based on a forecast with strong population growth. In the third scenario ("low"), the FSO anticipates low population growth. The reference scenario In the reference scenario, it is assumed that Switzerland will be in a good economic position after the COVID-19 pandemic and will be attractive for labour immigration. However, migration will be somewhat weaker than in previous years because most EU countries are also attractive for the labour market. The majority of workers who immigrate to Switzerland have a good education. They are therefore mobile and usually only stay in Switzerland for a certain period of time. More children per woman Thanks to increasing gender equality and a better work-life balance, parents are finding it easier to harmonise their private and professional lives. Many women are pursuing higher education and starting to work later. As a result, women have their first child later on average. Medically assisted reproduction is enabling more and more women to have children even at an advanced age. Therefore, the number of children per woman will rise from 1.52 (2020) to 1.62 (2050). Rising life expectancy Advances in medicine and health prevention are leading to a further reduction in mortality. The state of health of the population is gradually improving. In 2070, the life expectancy of men (currently around 82.2 years) will increase to 89 years. For women, life expectancy will also increase by around 6 years on average to 91 years. Growing and ageing population According to the reference scenario, Switzerland's permanent resident population will grow from 8.6 million in 2020 to 11.1 million in 2070. The proportion of older people will continue to increase. Today, 1.6 million people (18.7%) in Switzerland are aged 65 or over. This figure will rise to 2.7 million (25.6%) by 2050 and to almost 3 million (27%) by 2070. This means that there will be more and more older people.
The second scenario ("high") In the "high" scenario, people assume that Switzerland is doing well economically. This means that many people move to Switzerland. The population therefore grows faster. There are also more children per woman and people are getting older. In 2070, there could be 13 million people. The third scenario ("low") In comparison, the "low" scenario assumes lower economic growth. Fewer people move to Switzerland and there are fewer children. People are getting older, but the population is growing more slowly. In 2070, there could only be 9.4 million people. Migration as key factor For around 50 years, people in Switzerland have not been having enough children. Without people moving to Switzerland and without the increase in life expectancy, population growth in Switzerland would be negative. Even the small increase in the birth rate will not be enough to increase the population. This means that migration has a major influence on population growth. As soon as the baby boomers (people born between 1950-1970) retire and slowly die out, population growth will depend almost exclusively on migration.
