Statistics Unit 2: Single Regression Model
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Questions and Answers

What defines a reliable estimate of the causal effect of x on y in SLR?

  • It needs to include all subjects, regardless of treatment assignment.
  • It must reflect the influence of y on x.
  • It should account for all known confounding variables.
  • It must solely reflect changes in y due to changes in x. (correct)
  • Which of the following is NOT one of the necessary conditions for a randomized controlled experiment?

  • Presence of a control group.
  • Random assignment to treatment.
  • Subjects choose their treatment. (correct)
  • All subjects follow the treatment plan.
  • In SLR, what does the identification assumption about the relationship between x and y imply?

  • x does not influence y.
  • y influences x significantly.
  • y and x exhibit random independent correlations.
  • The relationship is linear and unidirectional from x to y. (correct)
  • What does i.i.d. stand for in the context of observation units in SLR?

    <p>Independently and Identically Distributed. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which characteristic is necessary for the control group in a causal effect study?

    <p>The control group must only consist of similar individuals from the population. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one primary challenge in obtaining a reliable estimate of the causal effect in SLR?

    <p>Preventing reverse causality can be complicated. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which aspect signifies that a sample of (xi, yi) is random and valid in SLR?

    <p>The entities are chosen from the same population and are independently distributed. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary focus of the counterfactual question in causal effect analysis?

    <p>The potential outcome for a different treatment scenario. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which method is suggested to estimate β0 and β1 in the regression analysis?

    <p>Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'sum of the squared residuals' refer to in regression analysis?

    <p>The differences between observed and predicted values squared (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What effect does a larger error variance have on the variance of the slope estimate?

    <p>It causes the slope estimate variance to increase. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens to the variance of the slope estimate as the variability in the independent variable increases?

    <p>The variance of the slope estimate decreases. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What provides an estimate of the error variance in the context of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)?

    <p>The residuals observed from the OLS regression. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the formula for the unbiased estimator of the error variance, σ²?

    <p>$\sigma^2 = \frac{1}{N-K-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} u_i^2$ (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term (N - K - 1) represent in the variance estimator formula?

    <p>The degrees of freedom adjustment. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the intercept parameter $β0$ represent in a simple linear regression model?

    <p>The expected value of the dependent variable when the independent variable is zero (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT an assumption of the Least Squares method for causal inference?

    <p>The error term must include systematic variation (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the equation $y = β0 + β1 · x + u$, what does the term 'u' represent?

    <p>The disturbance capturing unobserved factors (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is it important that the conditional distribution of the error term given x has a mean of zero?

    <p>To ensure that the OLS estimator is unbiased (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the systematic part of a simple linear regression model?

    <p>The relationship defined by β0 and β1 · x (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement correctly identifies a characteristic of the OLS estimator?

    <p>It minimizes the sum of squared residuals. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does it mean if the variance of the independent variable x is zero?

    <p>The estimated relationship is confined to a single value for x. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In a regression model, what is the primary function of the error term (u)?

    <p>To capture the influence of factors not included in the model (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which scenario is most likely to violate the assumption that E(u | x) = 0?

    <p>Detecting a consistent error in predicting y based on x (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following pairs correctly identifies the dependent and independent variables in the example of life expectancy related to health expenditures?

    <p>Health expenditure is the independent variable; life expectancy is dependent. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the R-squared value represent in regression analysis?

    <p>The fraction of total sum of squares explained by the model (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement about R-squared is true?

    <p>R-squared is a measure of goodness of fit that ranges from zero to one. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is R-squared related to the number of independent variables in a regression model?

    <p>It usually increases with the addition of independent variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a limitation of using R-squared to compare different regression models?

    <p>R-squared does not provide information about the number of variables in a model. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the formula for R-squared involve in terms of dependent and predicted values?

    <p>The ratio of the total variance explained to the total variance of the actual values. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the implication if any of the assumptions SLR.1 to SLR.4 fails?

    <p>The OLS estimators will be biased. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Under the assumptions of SLR.1 to SLR.4, what is true about the OLS estimators β̂0 and β̂1?

    <p>Their expected values equal the population parameters. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the condition E(u|x) = 0 signify?

    <p>The mean of the error term is zero given any value of x. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is it necessary to have finite fourth moments (E x^4 < ∞ and E y^4 < ∞)?

    <p>To ensure that the variances used are finite. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the property PN i=1 (xi − x̄) = 0 indicate?

    <p>The value of x is centered around its mean. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is the OLS estimator β̂1 expressed in relation to β1 and the summation of ui?

    <p>β̂1 = β1 + 1/Sx2 Σ (xi − x̄)ui. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a consequence of zero conditional mean for unbiasedness?

    <p>It implies that the error term does not affect the relationship. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do the parameters β0 and β1 represent in the context of OLS?

    <p>They represent the true population parameters. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In OLS estimation, if the variance of the independent variable Var(x) = 0, what happens?

    <p>The model cannot be estimated. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Flashcards

    Causal effect in SLR

    The effect of an explanatory variable (x) on the distribution of the dependent variable (y), holding other relevant factors constant. It's the expected difference in y from a controlled experiment where x is manipulated randomly.

    Partial derivative

    A measure of how much the expected value of y changes when x changes slightly (holding all else constant).

    Identification assumptions (SLR)

    Assumptions needed to ensure regression estimates reflect the causal effect of x on y and not other factors.

    Linear relationship (SLR)

    A relationship between x and y where a change in x causes a proportional change in y.

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    Random sample (SLR)

    Data points (x, y) collected using random selection, ensuring that observations are independent and identically distributed.

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    i.i.d.

    Independent and identically distributed. A crucial assumption for valid inferences in regression analyses.

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    Control group

    A group in an experiment that does not receive the treatment (being studied).

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    Reverse causality

    When the relationship between variables is incorrectly estimated because y may influence x (rather than the other way around).

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    Simple Linear Regression Model

    A linear model showing the relationship between two variables (x and y). y = β0 + β1x + u, where β0 is the intercept, β1 is the slope, and u is the error term.

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    Population regression line

    A line that represents the average value of a dependent variable for given values of an independent variable in a population.

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    Error Term (u)

    A term in a linear regression model that accounts for factors besides the independent variable that affect the dependent variable.

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    SLR

    Simple Linear Regression

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    Life Expectancy

    Average lifespan for a population. Often used in public health studies.

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    Independent Variable (x)

    The variable used to predict or explain the dependent variable (y).

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    Health Expenditures

    Spending on healthcare services per capita in a population.

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    Dependent Variable (y)

    The variable being predicted or explained in the linear regression model.

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    OLS Estimator

    A method used to estimate the parameters (β0, β1) in a linear regression model. It minimizes the sum of squared errors.

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    Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

    A method to estimate regression parameters by minimizing the sum of squared residuals between observed and modeled values.

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    Least Squares Assumptions

    Conditions, like linearity, independence, and zero mean error, necessary to make valid causal inferences from simple linear regression.

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    Residuals

    Differences between observed values and predicted values in a regression model.

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    Cross-sectional data

    Data collected from many different subjects at a single point in time.

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    Causal Effect

    The effect of a change in the independent variable on the dependent variable, assuming other factors don't change.

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    Sampling Variation

    Differences in results obtained from different samples.

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    Dependent variable

    The variable that we want to explain or predict based on other variables.

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    i.i.d data

    independent and identically distributed data.

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    Linearity

    The relationship between variables is linear.

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    Error Variance (σ^2)

    A measure of the variability of the unobserved errors in a regression model, reflecting the extent to which actual values deviate from the predicted values.

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    Estimated Residuals (ûᵢ)

    The difference between the observed dependent variable value (yᵢ) and the predicted value in a regression model.

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    Unbiased Estimator of σ^2

    An estimator of the error variance that, on average, equals the true error variance.

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    Degrees of Freedom (df)

    The number of independent pieces of information available to estimate a parameter.

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    σ̂^2

    An estimate of the error variance in a regression model, calculated from the residuals.

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    R-squared (R²) definition

    R-squared is a statistical measure representing the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that's predictable from the independent variables in a regression model. It's the fraction of the total variation in the data explained by the regression.

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    R² calculation (formula)

    R² = (SSR/SST), where SSR is the sum of squares due to regression and SST is the total sum of squares.

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    R² value range

    R² values range from 0 to 1.

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    R² interpretation

    A higher R² indicates a better fit of the regression model to the data, which means the model explains more of the variability in the dependent variable.

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    R² limitations

    Adding more independent variables to a model will typically increase R². This doesn't necessarily mean the model is better, as it could be overfitting the data, or that the additional variables do not contribute substantively.

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    Assumption SLR.3

    Sample variation in the independent variable (x) is not zero.

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    Assumption SLR.4

    The expected value of the error term (u), given the independent variable (x), is zero.

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    Unbiased OLS estimators

    OLS estimators (β̂0 and β̂1) have expected values equal to their true population parameters (β0 and β1).

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    Biased estimators

    OLS estimators are biased if any assumptions (SLR.1 to SLR.4) are violated.

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    OLS formula (β̂1)

    The OLS estimator for the slope (β̂1) is calculated by dividing the sum of products of (xi − x̄) and yi by the sum of squares of (xi − x̄).

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    Summation property (x̄)

    The sum of deviations from the sample mean (x̄) is zero: Σ(xi − x̄) = 0.

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    Finite Fourth Moments

    Technical assumption requiring the fourth moments of x and y to be finite.

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    Unbiasedness Proof (OLS-β̂1)

    The proof of unbiasedness involves rewriting β̂1, and showing, through mathematical steps, that the expected value of β̂1 equals β1, conditional on x.

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    Unbiasedness Summary

    OLS estimates are unbiased under assumptions SLR.1 to SLR.4. The proof relies on the conditions (assumptions).

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    Why SLR.4 likely fails

    If there's a correlation between the error term (u) and the independent variable (x), the zero conditional mean assumption is violated. This can happen if omitted variable bias is present.

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    Study Notes

    Unit 2: Single Regression Model

    • This unit focuses on single regression models.
    • The outline includes topics such as simple linear regression, OLS estimator, variance of the OLS estimator, and goodness of fit.
    • Exercises include working with the summation operator, deriving the OLS estimator, and understanding its variance.

    Simple Linear Regression Model (SLR)

    • A linear model represents the relationship between two variables, x and y.
    • The model is: y = β₀ + β₁x + u
    • β₀: Intercept (parameter)
    • β₁: Slope parameter
    • u: Error term (unobserved factors)
    • Examples of applications include life expectancy and health expenditures, test scores and student-teacher ratio, and wages and education.

    Terminology of the SLR

    • y: Dependent variable (explained variable, response variable, predicted variable, regressand, LHS variable)
    • x: Independent variable (explanatory variable, control variable, predictor variable, regressor, RHS variable)
    • u: Error term (disturbance)

    Least Squares Assumptions for Causal Inference

    • β₁ is the causal effect of a change in x on y.
    • The model is linear in parameters: y = β₀ + β₁x + u
    • (xᵢ, yᵢ) are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.)
    • The sample variation in x is not 0 (Var(x) ≠ 0).
    • The conditional distribution of u given x has a mean of zero (E(u|x) = 0).
    • The average value of u in the population is 0 (E(u) = 0).
    • Large outliers in x or y are rare.

    The SLR as a Strategy for Identification

    • The counterfactual question is: if x had a different value, what would y have been?
    • The implicit counterfactual is not observable.

    Causal Effect in SLR

    • The causal effect on y from a unit change in x is the expected difference in y as measured in a randomized controlled experiment.

    Identification Assumptions

    • Linear relationship in the population exists between x and Y, X influences Y and not the other way around.
    • This relationship holds for all observation pairs, not just observed ones.
    • Other observation pairs serve as a control group for a specific observation.

    Random Sample

    • If the entities (individuals, districts) are sampled randomly, the outcomes will be independent and identically distributed.
    • Non-i.i.d sampling is found in panel and time series data.

    Variance of x

    • The sample variation in x must be non-zero (Var(x) ≠ 0).

    Zero Conditional Mean Assumption

    • The relationship between u (error term) and x is independent..
    • E(u|x) = E(u)= 0 (Orthogonality Condition)

    Zero Mean Assumption

    • The average u in the population is 0 (E(u) = 0).

    Outliers

    • Large outliers in x or y are rare.
    • Outliers can produce meaningless results.

    Population Regression Line in the SLR

    • The expected value of y given x (E(y|x)) is a linear function of x.

    Example - Life Expectancy and Health Expenditures

    • An example using life expectancy and health expenditures at birth and health expenditures.

    Example - Wage Function

    • An example that examines the relationship between wages and education.

    Deriving the OLS Estimator - I

    • Defines a fitted value for y when x = xᵢ (ŷᵢ = β₀ + β₁xᵢ).
    • Defines a residual (ûᵢ = yᵢ - ŷᵢ = Yᵢ - β₀ - β₁Xᵢ).
    • Chooses β₀ and β₁ to minimize the sum of squared residuals.

    Graphical Illustration of the OLS Estimator

    • Illustrates the geometric interpretation of the OLS estimator.

    Deriving the OLS Estimator - II, III, and IV

    • Shows the process of deriving the OLS estimator for β₁.

    Deriving the OLS Estimator - V

    • Equation (17) is simply the sample covariance between x and y divided by the sample variance of x:

    β₁ = Cov(x,y)/Var(x)

    Deriving the OLS Estimator - VI

    • Examines reverse causality in a regression model, where both variables supposedly influence each other.

    Regression functions

    • Defines population regression function and sample regression function.

    Summary of the OLS estimator

    • Slope estimate (β₁) represents the covariance between x and y divided by the variance of x.
    • If x and y are positively correlated, the slope is positive.
    • Residual û is the difference between the fitted line and sample values..

    OLS Estimates by Stata/R, Example Data

    • Provides examples using real-world data (e.g., life expectancy and health expenditure, wages and education).
    • Shows output from statistical software (e.g., Stata).

    Assumptions

    • Outlines the four assumptions underlying OLS estimation

    Theorem 1 - Unbiasedness of OLS

    • States that under the assumptions SLR.1-SLR.4, the OLS estimators β₀ and β₁ are unbiased.
    • Note that if any of the assumptions are violated, the estimates are biased.

    Unbiasedness of OLS - I, II

    • Explains a proof of unbiasedness for β₁ by rewriting the estimator and taking its conditional expectation.

    Unbiasedness Summary

    • Summarizes the concept of unbiasedness in the context of OLS.

    The Variance of the OLS Estimator

    • Explains the importance of knowing the variance of the OLS estimator in addition to its expected value.
    • Introducing homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity

    Homoskedastic/Heteroskedastic Case

    • Illustrates the visual difference between homoskedastic and heteroskedastic scenarios.

    Assumption SLR.5 - Homoskedasticity

    • States that the variance of the error term (u) is constant for all values of the explanatory variable (x).
    • This assumption plays no role for unbiasedness of the OLS estimators.

    Theorem 2- Sampling Variances of the OLS Estimators

    • Provides formulas for the variances of the OLS estimators.
    • These formulas are invalid in the case of heteroskedasticity.

    Explained Variation in the Dependent Variable

    Goodness of Fit - I, II

    • Explains details about how well the model explains the variation of the dependent variable (y) using the R-squared statistic.

    Example - Wage Function (CPS 2015)

    • An example using wages and education from CPS 2015 data.

    Example - Test Scores and Student-Teacher Ratios

    • Example illustrating the application of linear regression to test scores and student-teacher ratios.

    Exercises 1, 2, and 3

    • Detailed solutions to the exercises, including derivations and explanations.

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    Description

    This quiz covers the essential concepts of Single Linear Regression models, including the OLS estimator and its variance. You'll explore the relationships between dependent and independent variables through practical examples. Test your understanding of the fundamental principles and terminologies associated with regression analysis.

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