Statistics Chapter: Interval Estimation and t-Distribution
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Questions and Answers

What is the relationship between type 1 error (α) and type 2 error (β)?

  • Increasing α decreases β (correct)
  • Increasing α increases β
  • Both α and β are independent
  • Increasing β decreases α

Failing to reject a null hypothesis means that we can accept it as true.

False (B)

What does the p-value represent in hypothesis testing?

The probability of getting a test statistic as extreme as the observed value, given that the null hypothesis is true.

The probability of a type 2 error, β, increases when the null hypothesis is __________.

<p>close to true</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the terms with their corresponding definitions:

<p>Type 1 Error = Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true Type 2 Error = Failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false Power of a Test = The probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis Level of Significance = The probability of making a type 1 error (α)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of a confidence interval?

<p>To estimate the true parameter value (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The t-distribution becomes more narrow as the degrees of freedom increase.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the null hypothesis (H0) represent in hypothesis testing?

<p>A specific value for a regression parameter.</p> Signup and view all the answers

The probability of a type 1 error is denoted by the letter ______.

<p>alpha</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the types of errors with their descriptions:

<p>Type 1 error = Rejecting a true null hypothesis Type 2 error = Failing to reject a false null hypothesis Power of a test = Probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis Level of significance = Probability of committing a Type 1 error</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement describes a rejection region?

<p>Set of values with low probability under the null hypothesis (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution tends to become less similar to the normal distribution.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the decision if the null hypothesis is true and we reject it?

<p>Type 1 error</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Type 1 Error

The probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis. It's the risk of making a wrong decision when the null hypothesis is actually correct.

Type 2 Error

The probability of failing to reject a false null hypothesis. It's the risk of missing a real effect.

Why we 'fail to reject' rather than 'accept' a null hypothesis

A statistical test cannot prove the truth of a null hypothesis. It can only provide evidence to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

P-Value

The probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as the one obtained from the sample, assuming the null hypothesis is true.

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P-Value Rule

Reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance (alpha). This means the observed results are unlikely if the null hypothesis is true.

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Confidence Interval

An interval that, with a specific probability, contains the true parameter value (e.g., b2).

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t-Distribution

A statistical distribution that looks similar to the normal distribution but is more spread out with thicker tails. Its shape is determined by the degrees of freedom (df).

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Null Hypothesis (H0)

A statement about the value of a regression parameter (e.g., b2), usually assuming a specific value (c).

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Alternative Hypothesis (H1)

An alternative statement to the null hypothesis. Accepted if the null hypothesis is rejected.

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Test Statistic

A statistic used to test the null hypothesis. Its distribution is known under the null hypothesis.

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Rejection Region

A region of values for the test statistic that, if observed, leads to rejecting the null hypothesis.

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Study Notes

Interval Estimation

  • The distribution of b₂, the least squares estimator of B₂, is normal.
  • A standardized normal random variable is obtained from b₂ by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation.
  • The standardized random variable Z is normally distributed with mean 0 and variance 1.
  • An interval (with a specific probability) contains the true parameter value b₂.
  • 95% confidence example:
    • P(−1.96 < Z < 1.96) = 0.95

The t-distribution

  • Replacing σ² with s² creates a random variable with a t-distribution.
  • The ratio b₂ − B₂ /se(b₂) follows a t-distribution with n − 2 degrees of freedom.
  • In simple linear regression models, if SLR1-SLR6 assumptions hold, then (bₖ − Bₖ) / se(bₖ) follows a t(n − 2) distribution for k = 1, 2.
  • The t-distribution is bell-shaped, centered at zero, and has larger variance and thicker tails compared to the standard normal distribution.
  • The shape of the t-distribution is controlled by degrees of freedom. As degrees of freedom increases, the t-distribution approaches the standard normal distribution.

Obtaining Interval Estimates

  • Use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and quantiles (inverse CDF) of the t-distribution.
  • The t(1-α/2, m) is the (1-α/2) percentile of the t-distribution with m degrees of freedom.

Hypothesis Testing

  • Components of hypothesis testing include:
    • Null hypothesis (H₀): Specifies a value for a regression parameter (e.g., H₀: bₖ = c).
    • Alternative hypothesis (H₁): Specifies a different value or range of values for the parameter (e.g., H₁: bₖ < c, bₖ > c, bₖ ≠ c).
    • Test statistic: The calculated value used to determine if the null hypothesis should be rejected.
    • Critical value or p-value: Used to make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
  • We use t-statistics to perform the hypothesis test.
  • The rejection region is a set of values for the test statistic that would lead to rejecting the null hypothesis.
  • Statistical tests do not prove the truth of the null hypothesis but rather use evidence to either reject or fail to reject it.
  • There is a trade-off between the probabilities of committing Type I and Type II errors.

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Description

Explore the concepts of interval estimation and the t-distribution in this quiz. Understand how the least squares estimator behaves and how confidence intervals are constructed. Test your knowledge of these key statistical distributions and their applications in linear regression.

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