Podcast
Questions and Answers
What type of forecasting method relies on historical trends to predict future social problems?
What type of forecasting method relies on historical trends to predict future social problems?
- Consensus methods
- Genius forecasting
- Simulation methods
- Trend extrapolation (correct)
Which forecasting method utilizes expert opinions from a variety of fields?
Which forecasting method utilizes expert opinions from a variety of fields?
- Scenario Method
- Simulation methods
- Trend extrapolation
- Consensus methods (correct)
Which of the following best describes the Scenario Method of forecasting?
Which of the following best describes the Scenario Method of forecasting?
- Predicts the future based on statistical analysis only
- Describes various potential scenarios with different outcomes (correct)
- Focuses on the continuation of past trends
- Relies solely on individual intuition and insight
What does 'CUDOS' stand for in the context of scientific norms?
What does 'CUDOS' stand for in the context of scientific norms?
Which method of forecasting involves mathematical modeling and statistical analysis?
Which method of forecasting involves mathematical modeling and statistical analysis?
According to the content, what is one potential benefit of modernization in relation to social problems?
According to the content, what is one potential benefit of modernization in relation to social problems?
What aspect does the Consensus method of forecasting specifically emphasize?
What aspect does the Consensus method of forecasting specifically emphasize?
What does the term 'Communalism' imply in scientific research?
What does the term 'Communalism' imply in scientific research?
Flashcards
Trend Extrapolation
Trend Extrapolation
Predicting future trends based on historical patterns and assuming they will continue. It involves analyzing past data and projecting it forward.
Genius Forecasting
Genius Forecasting
Using individual intuition, insight and personal experience to predict future trends. It relies on the expertise and unique perspective of a single individual.
Consensus Methods of Forecasting
Consensus Methods of Forecasting
Combining the opinions of multiple experts from different fields to forecast future trends. This approach seeks to gather a wide range of perspectives and expertise.
Simulation Methods
Simulation Methods
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Scenario Method
Scenario Method
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Communalism
Communalism
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CUDOS
CUDOS
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Institutionalization of Science
Institutionalization of Science
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Study Notes
Social Problems (SOCI250) - Week 12
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Exam: Conclusion & Final Exam on November 25th and 27th, 2024
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Schedule:
- November 25th: Lecture
- November 27th: In-class discussion session
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Outline for the Final Exam:
- The Future of Social Problems
- Solving Social Problems
- Final Exam
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Future of Social Problems:
- Modernization has decreased some problems, but new challenges exist.
- Future issues will likely be extensions of current ones.
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Alternative Forecasting Methods:
- Trend extrapolation projects based on historical patterns, although this can be inaccurate due to unpredictable events.
- Genius forecasting relies on individual insights and intuition.
- Consensus forecasting gathers opinions from experts.
- Simulations use mathematical models and statistics to predict future events.
- Scenarios describe various potential futures, helping understand potential outcomes.
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Technology and the Institutionalization of Science:
- Scientific advancement relies on empirical research following principles of science, called "CUDOS"
- Communalism: Shared scientific knowledge, results publicly available
- Universalism: Objectivity in science, independent of personal characteristics
- Disinterest: Science for the good of humanity with no personal gains.
- Organized Skepticism: Evaluated claims need to be backed by rigorous testing
- Scientific advancement relies on empirical research following principles of science, called "CUDOS"
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Solving Social Problems:
- Challenges in solving social problems include translating ideals into practical solutions and the difficulty of defining and addressing the issue itself
- Social change and reducing social problems can involve micro-level changes and macro-level strategies (e.g., primary vs secondary groups).
Final Exam Details
- Date & Time: December 11th, 2-5 PM
- Location: https://www.mcgill.ca/exams/dates
- Format: Multiple-choice exam
- Content: Cumulative, covering the entire semester
- Questions: 60 questions
- Duration: 3 hours
- Q&A Session: Monday, December 2nd
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Description
This quiz focuses on key concepts discussed in SOCI250, particularly the future of social problems and various forecasting methods. Explore how modernization has transformed societal issues and the tools we use to predict and solve them. Prepare for the final exam with insights into trend extrapolation, genius forecasting, and scenario analysis.
