Rationalist Theories of War Quiz
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Questions and Answers

What is one of the key mechanisms that may lead rational actors to go to war despite the costs?

  • Private information and incentives to misrepresent (correct)
  • Public pressure from citizens
  • The desire for territory expansion
  • Strong military alliances

According to James Fearon, what is a commitment problem in the context of war?

  • Uncertainty in leaders' decisions
  • Distrust in upholding agreements (correct)
  • Overpopulation in conflict areas
  • Lack of military funding

Which factor contributes to issue indivisibilities that can lead to war?

  • Religious significance of a territory (correct)
  • Population density of disputing nations
  • Economic advantages of trade routes
  • Availability of natural resources

What aspect does Hein Goemans tie to the termination of wars?

<p>Domestic politics and leadership incentives (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does Fearon's work shift the understanding of states in conflict?

<p>It highlights structural and strategic conditions (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a possible reason states might not resolve disputes peacefully, according to rationalist theories?

<p>Overestimation of military capabilities (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a mechanism identified by Fearon that leads to war?

<p>Capacity to share resources (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What central theme pervades Fearon's analysis in 'Rationalist Explanations for War'?

<p>Bargaining failures lead to war (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant factor that influences autocratic leaders' decision to prolong a war?

<p>Fear of severe domestic consequences (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do democratic leaders' consequences differ from those of autocratic leaders regarding war termination?

<p>Democratic leaders are less likely to gamble on continued conflict (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What challenge do mixed regime leaders face when deciding on war termination?

<p>Conflicting pressures from elite factions and public opinion (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which theory does David A. Lake critique in relation to the Iraq War?

<p>Rational choice theory (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of war do traditional bargaining models often overlook according to Lake?

<p>Postwar reconstruction costs (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What psychological factors do McKoy and Lake argue influenced Saddam Hussein's decision-making?

<p>Misinformation and misperceptions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What did Kaufman identify as a central factor in triggering extreme ethnic violence?

<p>Symbolic politics and identity narratives (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Lake, how does the military-industrial complex affect state decision-making?

<p>It complicates the notion of rational state behavior (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of regime is identified as potentially facing greater difficulties in resolving wars?

<p>Mixed regimes (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What additional approach do McKoy and Lake suggest integrating into bargaining theory?

<p>Behavioral approaches (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Kaufman contrasts symbolic politics with which other theoretical approach?

<p>Rational choice theory (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do both Lake and McKoy emphasize regarding the role of domestic political considerations?

<p>They significantly shape state decisions to go to war. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a limitation of bargaining theory highlighted by Lake in relation to the Iraq War?

<p>It assumes all states act as rational unitary actors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is emphasized as crucial to understanding extreme ethnic violence?

<p>Emotional and symbolic dimensions of ethnic identity (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor is NOT identified as a psychological bias that can affect decision-making during crises?

<p>Rational thinking (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is 'groupthink' characterized by?

<p>Desire for cohesion that suppresses critical evaluation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Robert Jervis's hypotheses focus on which aspect of international relations?

<p>The role of cognitive biases and perceptual errors (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What safeguard does Jervis suggest to reduce the effects of cognitive biases?

<p>Ensuring diverse perspectives in decision-making (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a symptom of groupthink identified by Janis?

<p>Self-censorship among group members (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, what trend was observed regarding integrative complexity among decision-makers?

<p>Complexity fluctuated, decreasing under stress (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What might cause decision-makers to perceive other states as more hostile than they are?

<p>Internal attribution of motives during unfavorable interactions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Janis suggest is needed to counteract groupthink?

<p>Encouraging open dialogue and critical evaluation (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do cognitive biases affect elite decision-makers according to the discussed theories?

<p>They result in suboptimal decision-making (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Jervis argues that decision-makers have a tendency to resist changing their views due to which hypothesis?

<p>Hypothesis of Confirmation Bias (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What psychological phenomenon can lead groups to take unwarranted risks according to Janis?

<p>Illusion of vulnerability (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a primary focus of Janis’s analysis in relation to group dynamics?

<p>The influence of social cohesion on poor decision-making (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one challenge encountered by decision-makers under stress as identified in the content?

<p>Simplifying complex decisions (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is integrative complexity and its role in crisis resolution?

<p>The ability to see multiple perspectives, which aids in peaceful resolutions. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What were U.S. leaders' misperceptions about Iraq during the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War?

<p>They overestimated Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did psychological factors contribute to the failure in crisis management between the U.S. and Iraq?

<p>By reinforcing existing biases and misunderstandings. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the proposed mechanisms of nuclear brinkmanship discussed in the article?

<p>Managing accidental escalation of conflicts. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to John J. Mearsheimer, how do international institutions primarily function?

<p>As tools that reinforce the interests of powerful states. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main conclusion regarding the effectiveness of cyber operations in military conflicts?

<p>Cyber activities have had limited or no effect on physical violence in conflicts. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor did Mearsheimer highlight as overshadowing cooperation through international institutions?

<p>Concerns about relative gains and security dilemmas. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What concept do the authors highlight regarding the role of cyber operations in signaling?

<p>Cyber operations can be used for accommodative signaling to manage tensions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role do psychological factors play in nuclear crises according to Pauly and McDermott?

<p>They introduce additional uncertainty and irrationality. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Goldfarb and Lindsay, what remains critical in warfare despite advancements in AI?

<p>Human judgment in decision-making. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did the lack of communication channels affect U.S.-Iraq relations?

<p>It reinforced misunderstandings and misperceptions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What distinction do the authors make regarding AI's capabilities in military contexts?

<p>AI enhances prediction but not human judgment. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What conclusion do Duelfer and Dyson draw regarding managing international conflicts?

<p>Improving communication is essential to prevent conflicts. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What potential risk do Goldfarb and Lindsay identify with the integration of AI in military operations?

<p>AI will complicate organizational hierarchies and strategies. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Mearsheimer assert about the effectiveness of international institutions in security affairs?

<p>They play a marginal role compared to international rivalries. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the study argue about the timing of cyber actions in Ukraine?

<p>The timing of cyber actions often did not correlate with physical violence. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What psychological bias did Saddam Hussein exhibit concerning U.S. intentions?

<p>Overconfidence in Iraq's defenses. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role do the authors propose for cyber operations in international relations?

<p>They can stabilize relations during crises through signaling. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the concept of nuclear brinkmanship encompass?

<p>Using military threats while retaining decision-making agency. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do Goldfarb and Lindsay view AI's role in predicting military outcomes?

<p>AI enhances effective predictions but cannot make value-based decisions. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential consequence of chronic misperception in international conflicts?

<p>Escalation to violent conflict and war. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant drawback of using cyber operations according to the findings in Ukraine and Syria?

<p>They do not significantly compel changes in military strategies or outcomes. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do Kupchan and Kupchan argue is necessary for collective security to effectively maintain peace?

<p>Trust, commitment, and institutional frameworks (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Lukes, what aspect of NATO's enlargement is highlighted as significant for post-Cold War Europe?

<p>It reinforced democratic and institutional reforms in former Eastern Bloc nations. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was one key finding of Fortna's research on peacekeeping effectiveness?

<p>Traditional peacekeeping and observer missions are most effective, reducing the risk of war by over 80%. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What challenge does Welsh identify regarding the Responsibility to Protect (R2P)?

<p>Geopolitical constraints and inconsistent state actions undermine its effectiveness. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Fortna suggest about the conditions under which peacekeeping can be more effective?

<p>Stalemates often present more favorable conditions for peacekeepers. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the criticisms Lukes raises regarding NATO's role in Central Europe?

<p>Nationalism and uneven economic development pose challenges to regional integration. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which dimension of peacekeeping missions is found to cut the risk of war by more than half?

<p>Multidimensional missions (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What important aspect does R2P aim to address?

<p>Atrocities such as genocide and war crimes (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does Fortna's research suggest international peacekeeping impacts civil wars?

<p>It significantly reduces the likelihood of a return to conflict. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do Kupchan and Kupchan advocate for as an alternative to traditional balance-of-power strategies?

<p>Collective security mechanisms (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Welsh argue is necessary for R2P to remain effective in modern politics?

<p>Adaptation to contemporary geopolitical challenges (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What primary outcome does Fortna associate with the presence of peacekeepers?

<p>A significant reduction in the likelihood of returning to conflict (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does Lukes’ article relate NATO's expansion to historical concepts?

<p>It draws parallels with the Habsburg Empire. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What do Kupchan and Kupchan identify as challenges for collective security?

<p>Achieving unity among diverse actors and power dynamics (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Kenneth Waltz argue regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons?

<p>It is a rational deterrent that may enhance global stability. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key aspect of Scott D. Sagan's argument against nuclear proliferation?

<p>It increases the risks associated with weak governance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Mark S. Bell's typology of nuclear states includes several behaviors except for which of the following?

<p>Isolation (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What risk does James M. Acton primarily discuss in relation to modern command-and-control systems?

<p>Inadvertent nuclear conflict due to misinterpretation. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Caitlin Talmadge, what factor could contribute to China's nuclear escalation during a conflict with the United States?

<p>The potential of U.S. conventional military advantages. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT part of Waltz's argument regarding the impact of nuclear weapons on state behavior?

<p>States will act aggressively if they have nuclear weapons. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Mark S. Bell suggest about the change in foreign policy after the acquisition of nuclear weapons?

<p>It can result in more independence without aggression. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What critique does Waltz provide regarding nonproliferation efforts?

<p>They are often biased toward nuclear-armed states' interests. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What potential consequence of cyber vulnerabilities is highlighted by Acton?

<p>Inadvertent escalation in crises. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does Talmadge describe China's 'No First Use' policy?

<p>It is a strict guideline against using nuclear weapons first. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What theoretical perspective underpins Kenneth Waltz's arguments in his essay?

<p>Neorealism (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following does Acton argue is a consequence of entangled command-and-control systems?

<p>Higher risks of miscalculations during crises. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of foreign policy shifts does Bell's article emphasize concerning nuclear weapons?

<p>The independence of states while managing alliances. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary focus of Sagan's argument regarding nuclear proliferation?

<p>It presents significant dangers in certain contexts. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential consequence of Chinese leaders perceiving threats to their nuclear arsenal?

<p>They might escalate to nuclear use for leverage. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Aisha Ahmad's analysis, what enables jihadist groups to endure economic shocks and military defeats?

<p>Strategic adaptation of economic models. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What type of environmental event leads migrants to perceive more conflict in their new locations?

<p>Gradual environmental stressors like desertification. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What fundamental issue does the 'subversive trilemma' in cyber operations revolve around?

<p>The trade-off among speed, intensity, and control. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do jihadist groups typically respond during periods of intense military pressure?

<p>They adopt insurgency tactics. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the research on environmental migrants suggest about conflict perception?

<p>It is shaped by experiences with environmental change. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might cyber operations fall short of achieving their intended impact?

<p>They often lack strategic intensity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Ahmad's framework suggest is critical for understanding jihadist group durability?

<p>Economic survival strategies during fluctuations. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What kind of military capabilities does China perceive as threatened that could provoke nuclear escalation?

<p>Nuclear command and control systems. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characterizes the 'boom-bust' cycle in jihadist groups according to Ahmad?

<p>A shift between governance and insurgency depending on military pressure. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do cyber operations compare to traditional warfare according to Maschmeyer?

<p>They often lack the necessary intensity for strategic impacts. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What perception might lead China to consider preemptive nuclear action?

<p>A belief in U.S intentions to neutralize nuclear forces. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the general attitude of 'escalation pessimists' regarding military actions?

<p>They emphasize the risks of unintended escalation. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Maschmeyer suggest about the strategic execution of cyber operations?

<p>They often require a balance between speed and control. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Rationalist explanations for war

Theories that assume states act logically to maximize interests, addressing why states fail to resolve disputes peacefully when negotiation is possible.

Private information and incentives to misrepresent

States may withhold or distort information about military capabilities or resolve, hindering agreement.

Commitment problems

States cannot trust each other to uphold agreements due to potential shifts in power dynamics.

Issue indivisibilities

The object of dispute cannot be divided or shared, e.g., control over territory.

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War termination decisions

Decisions about how wars end, influenced by domestic politics, leadership incentives, and international dynamics.

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Political survival risks

Risks to leaders' political positions that influence their war termination decisions.

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2003 Iraq War

Example of war decisions, investigating elite decision-making.

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Bargaining failures

The persistence of war due to breakdowns in the negotiation process.

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Groupthink

A psychological phenomenon where a group's desire for unanimity and cohesion overrides critical thinking and individual responsibility, leading to poor decisions.

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Illusion of Invulnerability

Overconfidence that leads a group to take unwarranted risks.

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Rationalization (in Groupthink)

Discounting warnings or negative feedback during decision-making.

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Stereotyping (in Groupthink)

Viewing outsiders as opponents or inferior, hindering open viewpoints.

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Conformity Pressure (in Groupthink)

Suppressing dissenting opinions within a group.

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Self-Censorship (in Groupthink)

Members withholding doubts or counterarguments.

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Illusion of Unanimity

Belief that silence equals agreement in a group.

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Mindguards (in Groupthink)

Members shielding the group from dissenting information.

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Misperception

A distorted or inaccurate interpretation of others' intentions or actions.

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Integrative Complexity

A measure of cognitive style that assesses the ability to recognize multiple perspectives and integrate them into decision-making.

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Cognitive Bias

Systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment.

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Psychological Factors in War

Stress, biases, groupthink, misperceptions, and cultural factors.

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Escalation of Conflict

The increased intensity of conflict as the tension intensifies.

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Emotional & Symbolic Dimensions of Ethnic Identity

The identity-based nature of conflict, defying rational explanations, demanding consideration of emotions & meaning related to group identity.

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Peaceful Resolution

A successful outcome of a crisis that avoids conflict escalation or war.

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Cognitive Flexibility

Adapting thinking to different circumstances.

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Backchannel Diplomacy

Secret communication to improve relations.

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Nuclear Brinkmanship

Actions that push a situation to the edge of war, often using nuclear threats.

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Rational-Choice Theory

A theory that states decisions are made based on logic and self-interest; a traditional approach to foreign policy analysis.

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Offensive Realism

A theory that states states are driven primarily by a desire for power and security in an anarchic world.

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Security Dilemma

Actions taken to increase security can be interpreted as a threat by others, making everyone less secure.

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Relative Gains

Concern about whether some states gain more than others from an agreement.

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International Institutions

Organizations promoting cooperation among states.

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State Sovereignty

A state's right to self-governance.

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Conflict Escalation

A process where conflicts become more intense.

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Leadership Dynamics

Interactions between leaders and their impact on decision-making.

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Institutional Bias

Systematic tendencies within institutions that affect decision-making.

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Communication Channels

Methods used to exchange information between parties.

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Prolonged War

A war that lasts longer than expected or predicted, often due to domestic political pressures.

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Autocratic Regime

A form of government with a single leader or small group holding absolute power.

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Democratic Regime

A form of government where power comes from the people through free and fair elections.

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Mixed Regime

A government with some democratic elements and some autocratic elements.

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Rationalist Expectations

The idea that wars end when external military and economic factors make continuation unprofitable.

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Bargaining Theory

A theory that explains conflicts that arise despite high costs by highlighting commitment problems and information asymmetries.

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Credible Commitment Problems

Situations where one party cannot commit to a particular course of action because trust is absent or it could potentially be untruthful.

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Asymmetric Information

When one party in a negotiation has more or different information than the other party, leading to uncertainty.

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Domestic Factors

Internal political and economic pressures influence state behavior affecting war.

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Symbolic Politics

The use of symbols and narratives to mobilize support for or against groups and create an enemy.

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Ethnic Violence

Conflict driven by ethnic tensions and narratives that cause widespread violence or oppression.

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Post-War Costs

The economic and political burdens of rebuilding and restoring order following a war.

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Ideological Commitment

A strong belief or set of beliefs that influences political decisions, sometimes overriding rational calculations.

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Unit Rational Actors

States considered as a single decision-making entity who act with rationality.

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Collective Security

A system where states cooperate to prevent and respond to aggression, relying on collective action instead of individual power.

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Kupchan & Kupchan: Promise of Collective Security

Argues that collective security can work if states trust each other, commit to actions, and have strong institutions.

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NATO Expansion & Central Europe

Igor Lukes examines how NATO's expansion stabilizes post-Cold War Europe, with benefits for former Eastern Bloc countries.

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Habsburg Legacy in Central Europe

Lukes draws parallels between NATO's efforts and the Habsburg Empire's goal of multiethnic cooperation and unity.

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Peacekeeping's Impact on Civil War

Virginia Page Fortna analyzes the effectiveness of peacekeeping in preventing post-civil war conflict.

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Peacekeeping Effectiveness by Mission Type

Traditional peacekeeping and observer missions are most effective, while enforcement missions have smaller impacts.

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Peacekeeping Challenges and Context

Peacekeeping effectiveness varies depending on the conflict's complexity, duration, and economic conditions.

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Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

An international norm to prevent and respond to mass atrocities like genocide and war crimes.

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R2P's Normative Robustness

Exploring the strength of R2P as an international norm despite challenges in implementation.

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R2P's Dichotomy

Jennifer M. Welsh highlights the gap between R2P's commitment and uneven implementation.

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R2P's Resilience

R2P has gained some normative influence despite setbacks, embedded in broader frameworks of human rights.

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Nuclear Weapons & Warfare

Nuclear weapons fundamentally change the way wars are fought and raise concerns about proliferation.

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Nuclear Proliferation & Security

Debating whether nuclear proliferation makes the world more or less secure.

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International Response to Proliferation

How should the international community address the challenge of nuclear weapons proliferation?

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Nuclear Proliferation

The spread of nuclear weapons technology and capabilities to more countries.

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Waltz's Argument on Proliferation

Kenneth Waltz argued that nuclear proliferation could actually enhance global stability by creating strong incentives for states to act cautiously and rationally, preventing large-scale wars.

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Nuclear Deterrence

The concept that nuclear-armed states are deterred from attacking each other due to the fear of catastrophic retaliation.

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Balance of Power

A distribution of power among states where no single state dominates, potentially reducing the likelihood of war.

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Nuclear Emboldenment

The idea that acquiring nuclear weapons emboldens a state to act more aggressively or assertively in its foreign policy.

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Bell's Typology of Nuclear States

Mark Bell categorizes nuclear states' foreign policy responses into six types: aggression, expansion, independence, bolstering, steadfastness, and compromise.

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Command-and-Control Systems (C2)

The systems used by militaries to command, control, and coordinate forces, including for nuclear weapons.

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C2 Vulnerability

The potential for C2 systems to be disrupted by cyberattacks, misinterpretations, or errors, increasing the risk of unintended nuclear escalation.

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Escalation through Entanglement

James Acton argues that the complex and interconnected nature of modern C2 systems makes them vulnerable to miscalculations that could lead to unintended nuclear escalation.

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China's No First Use (NFU) Policy

China's commitment to not being the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.

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Nuclear Escalation

The expansion of a conflict from conventional weapons to nuclear weapons.

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Talmadge's Analysis of China

Caitlin Talmadge examines the conditions under which China might escalate to nuclear weapons use in a conventional conflict with the United States.

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Factors Influencing Nuclear Use

A combination of factors can influence a state's decision to use nuclear weapons, including strategic considerations, domestic politics, and international pressures.

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Risks of Nuclear Proliferation

The proliferation of nuclear weapons poses numerous risks, including accidents, unauthorized use, and potential for destabilizing regions with weak governance or extremist groups.

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Cyber Operations and Warfare

The study of how cyber attacks affect the course of military conflicts, particularly in their ability to alter battlefield behavior or military outcomes.

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Accommodative Signaling

Using cyber operations to communicate strategic intentions and manage tensions in international crises without resorting to showing military strength.

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De-escalation in Crises

The process of reducing tensions and preventing escalation of conflicts, potentially aided by strategic use of cyber operations.

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AI in Warfare

The integration of Artificial Intelligence into military operations, enhancing predictive capabilities but not replacing human judgment.

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Judgment in War

The human capacity to evaluate predictions, consider ethical implications, and make strategic decisions in complex war situations.

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Prediction vs. Judgment

The distinction between AI's ability to analyze data and predict outcomes, and the human ability to interpret those predictions and make decisions.

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Strategic Implications of AI

The impact of AI on military strategy and operations, potentially affecting decision-making, hierarchies, and vulnerability to cyber attacks.

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Complexity and Friction in Warfare

The increased complexity and potential for organizational friction arising from the integration of AI into military operations.

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Human Roles in AI-Enabled Warfare

The continued importance of human judgment, ethical considerations, and creativity in warfare, even as AI takes on more predictive tasks.

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Data and Judgment in Military Decision-Making

The increasing emphasis on data analysis and human judgment within militaries adopting AI technology.

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Jihadist Boom-Bust Cycle

Jihadist groups adapt their economic strategies based on external military pressure, shifting between governance and insurgency. During "booms", they govern territory and collect taxes, while during "busts", they focus on insurgency tactics.

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Environmental Migrants and Conflict Perception

Migrants who experience gradual, long-term environmental changes are more likely to perceive conflict in their new location compared to those experiencing sudden environmental events. This is due to pre-existing grievances and stress.

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Cyber Operations Trilemma

Cyber operations face a trade-off between speed, intensity, and control, making it difficult to achieve strategic goals. Increasing one aspect often comes at the cost of another.

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Impact of Cyber Attacks on Battlefields

The study examines how cyber attacks influence battlefield events using examples from the Ukraine and Syria wars. It investigates whether cyber operations can effectively shape the course of conflict.

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Chinese Nuclear Deterrent Capabilities

China might escalate to nuclear use if its nuclear arsenal is perceived to be threatened by actions like targeting command and control systems, missile silos, or submarine assets.

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Perceptions in Nuclear Decision-Making

Chinese leaders' perceptions of U.S. actions, particularly if they believe the U.S. aims to neutralize China's nuclear forces, could trigger a nuclear response.

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Escalation Optimists and Pessimists

Different views exist on the risk of nuclear escalation between the U.S. and China. Optimists downplay the risk, while pessimists emphasize the dangers.

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China's Limited Nuclear Arsenal

Despite having fewer nuclear weapons than the U.S., China's decision to use them is largely driven by its leadership's perception of the situation, especially during a conventional conflict.

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Threat Multipliers

Factors that worsen existing threats and make them more challenging to address, such as climate change amplifying security risks.

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Transforming Security Concerns

New technologies, such as cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence, and autonomous weapons, create new security challenges and redefine traditional concepts of war.

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State and International Preparedness

The question of whether states and the international community are adequately prepared to face emerging security threats posed by climate change, new technologies, and other factors.

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Economic Adaptability of Jihadist Groups

Jihadist groups shift their economic models based on external military pressure, employing governance during low pressure and insurgency during high pressure.

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Beyond Ideology and Local Support

While ideology and local support play a role, economic adaptability is crucial for the resilience and resurgence of jihadist groups.

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Study Notes

Elite Decision-Making and War

  • Rational choice models of war are challenged by the irrationality inherent in war's costs.
  • Bargaining failures due to three factors (private information, commitment problems, and issue indivisibilities) can drive war, even when both sides realize negotiation is optimal.

War Termination and Political Survival

  • Leaders' decisions about war termination are heavily influenced by the risk to their political survival.
  • Autocratic leaders face greater punishment for loss, thus prolonging war to achieve possibly favorable outcomes.
  • Democratic leaders are less likely to face severe penalties, which reduce their incentives for continued conflict.
  • Mixed regimes struggle with resolved war because of conflicting internal pressures.

Iraq War and Bargaining Theory

  • Bargaining theory faces challenges explaining the 2003 Iraq War, due in part to the complex interplay of domestic factors (oil interests, military-industrial complex) influencing US behavior.
  • The theory's assumption of unitary actors and rational behavior is overly simplistic and doesn't adequately account for Iraqi internal weaknesses and the complexity of postwar reconstruction or psychological elements like cognitive biases.

Symbolic Politics and Extreme Violence

  • Symbolic politics (ethnic myths, identity narratives) is a key factor in extreme ethnic violence.
  • Elites manipulate identity-driven emotions for power, mobilizing groups against perceived outgroups.
  • Purely rational explanations do not fully explain extreme violence, as emotion and symbolism play a key component.

Psychological Factors in War Decisions

  • Misperceptions, stress, groupthink, biases, and culture can lead to suboptimal decisions by elites.
  • Jervis's hypotheses on misperception include: holding pre-existing beliefs, resisting belief change, struggling to perceive others' intentions due to assumptions of shared understandings and misperceiving other nations as more hostile.
  • Janis's concept of groupthink highlights how the desire for unanimity and cohesion can override critical thinking and lead to flawed decisions.
  • Guttieri, Wallace, and Suedfeld's study on integrative complexity during the Cuban Missile Crisis shows variation in cognitive styles and how stress influences these styles.
  • Duelfer and Dyson's study on chronic misperceptions highlights inaccurate views between the US and Iraq leaders about each other, and how misperceptions contributed to conflict.

Nuclear Brinkmanship

  • Emotions (fear, anger) influence nuclear crisis dynamics, impacting decision-making under immense pressure and stress.
  • Brinkmanship leverages uncertainty, requiring nuanced calculations of chance and choice by leaders.

International Institutions and Collective Security

  • Mearsheimer argues that international institutions are mostly ineffective in preventing war because they reflect the interests of powerful states in the international system and focus on state sovereignty over absolute gains.
  • Kupchan and Kupchan argue that credible collective security necessitates trust, commitment, institutional frameworks and recognition of power dynamics.
  • Fortna's study shows that peacekeepers often reduce the likelihood of a return to conflict after civil wars, dependent on the peacekeeping mission type and context.
  • Effectiveness of R2P depends on both theoretical commitment and practicality, facing challenges with geopolitical constraints and inconsistent state actions.

Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation

  • Waltz argues that proliferation could stabilize global relations due to deterrence and the balance of power.
  • Sagan highlights the potential dangers of proliferation due to organizational failures, accidents (unauthorized use), and regional destabilization.
  • Bell describes different foreign policy behaviors that nuclear weapons induce (aggression, expansion, independence, bolstering, steadfastness, and compromise).
  • Acton underscores the risks of unintended nuclear escalation related to command-and-control vulnerability.
  • Talmadge assesses the risk of Chinese nuclear escalation in the context of US-China relations.

New Security Threats

  • Ahmad explores jihadist resilience and its strategic adaptation based on economic circumstances and military pressure.
  • Koubi et al. investigate how environmental migration impacts conflict perception, with gradual environmental changes more likely to lead to perceptions of conflict in new environments.
  • Maschmeyer examines how cyber operations face a trilemma of speed-intensity-control, hindering their strategic impact.
  • Kostyuk and Zhukov show limited effect of cyber attacks on battlefield events.
  • Lonergan and Lonergan highlight cyber operations as accommodative signaling, helpful for communicating intentions.
  • Goldfarb and Lindsay emphasize human judgment's importance in warfare, even with AI.

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Description

Test your understanding of rationalist explanations for war based on James Fearon's work. This quiz explores key mechanisms, commitment problems, and issue indivisibilities that influence conflicts between states. Dive into how these theories reshape our understanding of state behavior in wartime.

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