Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
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Questions and Answers

What is one reason why sales of college football apparel might be higher during the football season?

  • Inflation rate
  • Regular seasonal variations (correct)
  • Unemployment rate
  • Interest rates
  • Which informal method used in causal forecasting relies on the judgment of the forecaster?

  • Extrapolating past relationships into the future
  • Regression analysis
  • Mathematical algorithms (correct)
  • Seasonal variations
  • What does regression analysis focus on in statistical modeling?

  • Relationship between variables and climate
  • Relationship between variables and sales forecast
  • Relationship between dependent variable and independent variables (correct)
  • Relationship between variables and holidays
  • Which type of forecasting assumes a long-term linear relationship between variables?

    <p>Causal forecasting</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In what way does regression analysis help in understanding the relationship between variables?

    <p>It estimates the typical value of the dependent variable when independent variables are varied</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the key characteristic of the Delphi Method for forecasting?

    <p>Anonymity of responses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which forecasting technique involves the participation of a group of market experts recruited to give inputs and justifications?

    <p>Delphi Method</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary source of future projections in the Sales Force Opinions (Bottom up) technique?

    <p>Sales force opinions</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Who is usually responsible for the forecast in the Executive Judgement (Top Down) technique?

    <p>High-level executives</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do high-level executives use to arrive at a forecast in the Executive Judgement (Top Down) technique?

    <p>Market experts</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which type of forecasting method is suitable when past numerical data is available and it is reasonable to assume that some of the patterns in the data are expected to continue into the future?

    <p>Simple exponential smoothing</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are some of the accuracy performance measures used to judge quantitative forecasting models against each other?

    <p>Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which type of forecasting method tries to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable being forecast?

    <p>Causal (Econometric) forecasting methods</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In quantitative forecasting, which method involves incorporating information about climate patterns to improve the ability of the model to predict umbrella sales?

    <p>Causal (Econometric) forecasting methods</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When is it appropriate to use quantitative forecasting models?

    <p>When past numerical data is available and some patterns in the data are expected to continue into the future</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the time frame for long-term forecasting?

    <p>Generally considered longer than 2 years into the future</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which forecasting method may be used when past data are not available?

    <p>Qualitative forecasting</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When is short-term forecasting typically used?

    <p>Daily up to months in the future</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the characteristic of qualitative forecasting techniques?

    <p>Subjective and based on opinion and judgment</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What kind of knowledge is required for long-term forecasting due to uncertainty?

    <p>Detailed knowledge about products and markets</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data?

    <p>Analysis of trends</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In what area of application are the terms 'forecast' and 'forecasting' sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times?

    <p>Hydrology</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is considered good practice in forecasting and prediction regarding risk and uncertainty?

    <p>Indicating the degree of uncertainty attached to specific forecasts</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What must be up to date for a forecast to be as accurate as possible?

    <p>The data used</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is not a single event, nor something only the marketing department has to worry about?

    <p>Creation of marketing strategy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Below are monthly sales of light bulbs from the lighting store. Month Sales: Jan 250 Feb 298 Mar 357 Apr 319 May 380.

    Forecast sales for June using the following Naïve method?

    <p>380</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Below are monthly sales of light bulbs from the lighting store. Month Sales: Jan 250 Feb 298 Mar 357 Apr 319 May 380.

    Forecast sales for June using the following Three- month simple moving average?

    <p>352</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Below are monthly sales of light bulbs from the lighting store. Month Sales: Jan 250 Feb 298 Mar 357 Apr 319 May 380.

    Forecast sales for June using the following Three-month weighted moving average using weights of .5, .3 and .2?

    <p>357.1</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Below are monthly sales of light bulbs from the lighting store. Month Sales: Jan 250 Feb 298 Mar 357 Apr 319 May 380.

    Forecast sales for June using the following Exponential smoothing using an alpha of .2 and a May forecast of 350.

    <p>356</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The ABc Company has developed a new product and is going to make this product in-house. To be able to do this, they need to get a new equipment to be able to do the special type of processing required by the new product design. They have found two suppliers that sell such equipment. They are wondering which supplier they go ahead with. The costs associated with each option are:

    Fixed Cost: Supplier A $150,000 and Supplier B $210,000.

    Variable Cost: Supplier A $160 and Supplier B $100.

    What is the break-even quantity at which the company will be indifferent between the two options?

    <p>1000</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The ABc Company has developed a new product and is going to make this product in-house. To be able to do this, they need to get a new equipment to be able to do the special type of processing required by the new product design. They have found two suppliers that sell such equipment. They are wondering which supplier they go ahead with. The costs associated with each option are:

    Fixed Cost: Supplier A $150,000 and Supplier B $210,000.

    Variable Cost: Supplier A $160 and Supplier B $100.

    If the annual demand for the new product is estimated at 1000 units, which supplier should the company use? For what range of demand volume each supplier will be better?

    <p>Either Supplier</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the key step in the Capacity Planning Process that involves the evaluation of existing capacity and facilities?

    <p>Step 2: Evaluate existing capacity and facilities and identify gaps</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is it important to have a balanced time across all steps in a sequential process?

    <p>To avoid any big difference in the processing time of different steps</p> Signup and view all the answers

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