Qualitative Forecasting Methods
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Qualitative Forecasting Methods

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@PortableAlbuquerque

Questions and Answers

What is the key characteristic of qualitative forecasts?

They rely on opinions and expert insights

Which forecasting method involves gathering forecasts from top-level executives?

Executive Opinions

What distinguishes the Delphi Method from other qualitative forecasting methods?

It involves gathering opinions from a panel of experts anonymously

What is the purpose of using associative forecasting techniques?

<p>To predict the future by examining relationships between variables</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are predictor variables in forecasting?

<p>Variables that may influence what is being predicted</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of Standard Error of Estimate in regression analysis?

<p>To measure how accurate the forecast is</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which forecasting technique gives more weight to recent data while gradually forgetting older data?

<p>Exponential Smoothing</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does Monitoring Forecast Error involve?

<p>Comparing predicted values with actual outcomes</p> Signup and view all the answers

In regression analysis, what does Simple Linear Regression focus on?

<p>Analyzing the relationship between two variables</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to balance cost and accuracy when choosing a forecasting technique?

<p>To find a suitable trade-off between cost and accuracy</p> Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Qualitative Forecasting

  • Qualitative forecasts are predictions based on opinions, judgments, and expert insights rather than numerical data.
  • Methods include executive opinions, salesforce opinions, consumer surveys, and the Delphi method.

Associative Forecasting Techniques

  • Associative forecasting techniques help predict the future by analyzing relationships between variables.
  • Predictor variables are factors that might affect what we're trying to predict.
  • Regression analysis helps identify patterns between predictor variables and what we're trying to predict.
  • Simple Linear Regression analyzes the relationship between two variables.
  • Standard Error of Estimate measures the accuracy of predictions.

Monitoring Forecast Error

  • Forecast error monitoring involves comparing predictions with actual outcomes to assess accuracy.
  • It helps identify the need to adjust forecasting methods if predictions are inaccurate.

Choosing a Forecasting Technique

  • Multiple forecasting techniques are available, and the best technique depends on the situation.
  • Key factors to consider when selecting a technique are cost and accuracy.

Forecasting Techniques

  • Trend Equations: identify patterns of increase, decrease, or stability over time.
  • Time-Series Data: data collected over time, showing changes and patterns.
  • Moving Average: smooths out data fluctuations by averaging past values to predict future values.
  • Exponential Smoothing: gives more weight to recent data, gradually forgetting older data.

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Description

Learn about qualitative forecasting methods which are predictions based on opinions, judgments, and expert insights rather than numerical data. Explore methods like Executive Opinions and Salesforce Opinions.

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