Psychology: Scientific Evidence & Methods

• PSYC1021: Introduction to Psychological Applications, Week 1 Lecture 2
• The e-book link is on Moodle

Stanovich Test

• Wednesday Week 3 (5/3/25) from 12 - 1 pm
• Med Deferred will get a 2 pm test on Week 4, but only with special permission and email to Sue.
• Examinable content will include the Stanovich ebook, these lectures, and summary handouts available on Moodle.
• There will be 12 questions in 10 minutes, with four questions extracted from each lecture.
• The questions are randomly selected from a large question bank, so not two students will have the same test.
• Worth 6% of the overall grade.

Public Perception

• The public associates Sigmund Freud with psychology.
• Empirically-oriented psychologists do not consider his theory valid.
• His work represents a small part of modern psychology's issues, data and theories.
• Familiarity with his work can be an impediment in understanding modern psychology.
• There is a difference between public perception and psychology itself.

Problems With Freud's Notoriety

• Freud's importance to modern psychology is greatly exaggerated
• Methods are weak and unrepresentative
• Case studies are not controlled experiments, giving a misleading impression of psychological research.
• Built an elaborate theory on a database (case studies and introspection) that wasn't substantial enough to support it.
• Theories are not testable, meaning the relationship between data and theory is not reliable or replicable.

Grand Unifying Theory

• Psychology does not have one.
• Evolutionary theory is the closest unifying theory but is still a long way away.
• Other sciences also do not have a unifying theory except maybe biology.
• Psychology is the quest to understand behaviour by using the methods of science.
• Science of human behaviour, but other disciplines are also concerned with human behaviour

Commonality

• Psychology studies the full range of human and animal behaviour with techniques of science
• It guarantees that conclusions about behaviour derive from scientific evidence using a scientific method.
• Psychology's practical applications have been derived from and tested by scientific methods, creating an evidence base for its application.
• Psychology is the evidence-based scientific study of behaviour

Resistance to Scientific Psychology

• Purveyors of bogus psychology include the pseudoscientists
• The secret, horoscopes and even self-help books
• Opposition to science engages where authority/common-sense reigns
• This creates discomfort with the challenge to certain world views, like Darwin vs. creationism

Science Defined

• Define science not by it's content, but by a way of thinking
• Leads to a deeper understanding of the universe
• Three features define science: systematic empiricism, publicly verifiable knowledge and empirically solvable problems.

Systematic Empiricism

• Structured observation that leads to a greater understanding of the nature of the world, which is usually theory-driven.
• Historically, it was believed knowledge was gained through pore thought or appeal to authority
• Structured observation has been deemed necessary so results are meaningful

Publicly Verifiable Knowledge

• Scientific knowledge doesn't exist until submitted for criticism and empirical testing by others.
• Scientific knowledge is accessible for peer review and replication.
• Peer review is a procedure where each paper submitted to a journal is critiqued by several scientists.
• Replication means a finding is presented in a way that enables scientists to try the experiment for themselves.
• This ensures a finding is not due to errors or biases and to be accepted, it needs duplication.
• Research is interconnected.
• Researchers constantly build on previous knowledge to go beyond what is currently known
• Publicly verifiable means findings can be replicated, criticized, and extended.
• One way to verify claims is whether they have been publishes in the recognised scientific journal
• Not information in peer-reviewed journals is correct, but it has met it met a minimal criterion of peer review and scrutiny
• Open access journals may not have undergone peer review!
• There are biases in what gets published

Empirically Solvable Problems

• Science is answerable by means of currently available empirical techniques
• For example, "are humans inherently evil?" vs. "does screen-time impact social skills?"
• The aim of psychological science is to describe, explain, predict, and control.
• Science turns mysteries into problems.
• Problems mean we know that an answer is possible
• Mysteries mean were can't even conceive of what an answer would look like
• The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detectors measured gravitational waves on September 14, 2015.
• Gravitational waves arrived at Earth from a cataclysmic event in the distant universe.
• This discovery supported a prediction made 100 years ago by Einstein.

Implicit Beliefs

• Examples include, he who hesitates is lost, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and too many cooks spoil the broth.
• Also, you can do anything you set your mind to, time heals all wounds, and opposites attract.
• Also the powers of positive affirmations, clothes Maketh the man, & you can’t judge a book by its cover.

Problems With Common Sense

• The problem with common sense is that we have explanations for everything, which can't be refuted, but can't predict anything.
• We all have implicit models of behaviour that govern our interactions and our thoughts about others
• General principles and cliches use to explain
• Common sense theories are not as coherent as scientific theories
• Common sense is often contradictory and unfalsifiable
• Common sense if post-hoc (can't predict)
• There is always one common sense principle to fit situation
• Everything is obvious once you know the answer.
• Confirmation bias
• Trying to make sense of the universe!

Common Sense Theories

• “Wrong” common sense theories in psychology include we only use 10% of our brains, children who excel academically are less adept, and left brain/right brain people.
• Also teaching to preferred learning styles makes a difference (no link), multi-tasking, and speed reading.
• Also, low self-esteem causes aggression, low self-esteem causes school achievement problems, and children bring happiness to their parents.
• As well, fingerprinting/genetic testing is definitive, lie detector tests are a highly accurate, and we can make successful decisions with intuition.
• Yesterday's common sense is today's nonsense.

Other Issues With Beliefs

• People are often offended by descriptive facts about human behaviour.
• Cognitive biases lead to believing in pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, and other false ideas.
• This is especially true when someone is motivated to make one believe this way.
• Children are especially more gullible and therefore less critical
• Children growing up in single-parent households are more likely to experience poverty and behavioral problems.
• Racial prejudice is a reality.
• Psychology is not a "safe space" for unchallenged beliefs.
• It is an immensely diverse discipline covering a range of subjects.
• What unifies the discipline is that it uses scientific methods to understand behaviour.

Chapter 1 Summary

• The scientific method is not a strict set of rules; instead, it is defined by general principles.
• Three important aspects are: science employs methods of systematic empiricism, science aims for publicly verifiable knowledge, and science seeks empirically solvable problems that yield testable theories
• Psychology is in conflict with so-called folk wisdom because as modern science, many common beliefs have been refuted by this discipline

Theory in Science

• A theory is an interrelated set of concepts that are used to explain data and make predictions about future events.
• A theory is made up of conceptual structures with support.
• Hypotheses are specific predictions derived from general theories that can be proven true, confirming one’s comprehension of the theory
• Viable theories must have hypotheses that have been confirmed and are testable
• When data begins to contradict hypotheses, scientists may adjust or construct a new theory.
• One that coincides with ALL of the current and previous data

Commonsense

• A scientific theory differs from the "commonsense"/layperson's use of the term "theory" because it's more than a guess or hunch.
• Science also doesn't confirm unverified hypotheses or accept one theory as good as the next.
• Must be testable/falsifiable, not just personal opinion

Science Advancement

• Theories are put forth and hypotheses deduced from them.
• Hypotheses are tested by a variety of techniques.
• If a hypothesis is confirmed by experiments, it's corroboration theory.
• If the hypotheses are false, the theory is altered/discarded for a better approach

Falsifiability

• The theory is falsifiable and testability is paramount
• An example of bad falsifiability included Yellow Fever In 1793 (philadephia)
• In this example, Benjamin Rush used bloodletting
• The logic was that if the patient got better, it proved that bloodletting worked and if the patient died, it meant they were too ill for treatment
• Because of this, there was no way to discern whether the method worked since any result could prove the effectiveness of bloodletting
• Scientific Theories Must Be Testable and Falsifiable!
• Theories require Specific Predictions that Can Be Fairly and Feasibly Tested, Meaning That They Can Be shown to be False
• Should happens if theories do imply them; it is not used anymore and something is wrong with the theory
• Theory will be modified or even discarded if needed
• Freud used Post Hoc Explanations; There Were No Predictions Made.
• Specific and Precise are better in showing that what should not occur
• Evidence Quality Over Evidence Quantity

Why are all theory confirmations not equal

• Many Theories Have Been Confirmed So Many times that They Are Seen as Laws That Are Accepted ( eg, Blood, Circulation, Earth Obstructing Sun
• Scientists Will Look Into Aspects That Have Been Well Confirmed
• "Although absolute certainty is probably unattainable in science, some scientific claims, sure as Darwin’s Theory of natural selection - Have Been extremely well corroborated, whereas others, Such as the theory underpinning Astrological, Horoscopes have been convincingly refuted
• "Still others, such as cognitive dissonance, the are scientifically controversial - Hence, there is a continuum of confidence in scientific claims"

Science When Things Go "Wrong"

• When Our Beliefs Are Contradicted by Evidence in the World, it is Better to Adjust Our Beliefs THAN to Deny This (Though We Tend to do That Way
• "Myside Bias" - The Tendency For People To Evaluate: And Generate - Evidence And Test Hypotheses In a Manner Biased Towrd Their Own Beliefs and Attitudes
• Scientific Progress is a Danger - Tendency to Expose Beliefs Which May Be Shown to Be Wrong.
• Scientific Approach is to Follow - the - Intensity That Hypothesis - has no Meaning Whether It is True or not *
• The power of Science is To Reveal Knowledge About the World is Due to:
• Other Scientist Identify The Errors of the Peers

Chapter 2 Summary

• Good Theories are those that can be used to specific predictions, and also highly falsifiable.
• They need to be testable from actual data that can be shown to not be precise.
• theories Can Be Prefabricated, and They Need, Even When Predictions Are not Confirmed to Indicate a Theory Must Be Discovered
• And that is to prevent that it can account for the data pattern

Chapter 3

• Explanation of a phenomenon/definition of phenomenon/ ex: meaning of life/ “what is good people
• The idea of a operation concept can be linked to observe events that can be measured
• Definitions of scientific concepts that have been stated in measure with Observable Operations Ex: Operation
• The observable operations remove the concept from our intuition so it can be tested by anyone, with measurement
• Operations can remove test from intuition so it can be tested

Reliability and Validity

• Operations
• 1. Concepts Have The Ability To Be Refined With Further Research Which Help Us Increase/ The Understanding Of The World
• 2. Not A Single One - Intelligence What does Intelligence Test Help Us Measure
• 3/ May Be Multiple Ways to Operationalise A Given Construct - Storage Senthetic and Episodic Memory
• Operations - 1. Concepts Have The Ability To Be Refined With Further Research Which Help Us Increase/ The Understanding Of The World 2. Not A Single One - Intelligence What does Intelligence Test Help Us Measure: + Specific Info - Processing + Operations3/
• May Be Multiple Ways to Operationlise A Given Construct - Storage Senthetic And Episodic Memory Reliability and Validity
• Needs to be operational
• Tools should produce consistent result
• Needs to be used for what it states to use
• The assessment tool has needs something that needs variable to the construct Can something be Reliable Not Valid? Can something be Valid?
• But not Reliable * What Problem Does Psychology have regarding Definition and Essentialism Bias of human How does psychology needs these things for operations
• If gravity or other things are what

Operations Concepts

• Psychological Concepts Can't Rest On Someone's Concept/ Can Be Idiocycratic
• Useful To Establishie Concept grounded in operations
• The test of if a human or an AI must take the Turing Test to take what they mean
• The meaning of a concept is confirmed after the data has been collected in its full sense/

Summary Point

• A concept can be used to tested. - An observation has the operational definitions. that Can Be Measured
• And That Is One Main Way To Ensure That. Theories Are Falsafible. By Making Certain That the Key COnCePts. In Theores Have Operationally Defined - Concopts Make Science Known In General

Chapter 4 Studies and Testimonials

• Study is to looks at detail and small number of individual studies
• testimonial is Like case studies, so what is with case studies is that testimony have support always
• Can use to to support a theory or testimonials- Have supporting
• That means we can know which is best and doing testing to determine if this. using testimonial evidence
• Don’t control for any variable or alternative explanation

Summary Point Limitations

The theory is the first process in Science, and a person would do what is testing the second process in Science

• The theory ides critical
• Need Support Is One Particular In Simultaneous Disconfirms

Point to make Studies

• Cannot Support a theory
• Cannot used used that. - Is Used Test How Well Does Someone has Used the treatment
• The test of if a human or an AI must take the Turing Test to take what they mean
• The meaning of a concept is confirmed after the data has been collected in its full sense/

Definitions

• (tendency to used helps)
• Regardless The 5- Testinonials in 1 week- The Testmomials in 1 week - The testimomial will increase by 5 each day - Testmomial is +5 each day. Then Testimanid In 1 week = Is 35 More likely to die choking a sandwhich an shark attack

Explore psychology's commitment to scientific evidence and methods. Understand systematic empiricism and publicly verifiable knowledge. Learn how the scientific method resolves conflicts with common sense.