Psychology Chapter on Reasoning and Decision Making

A mental shortcut that simplifies decision-making, often leading to biases and errors.

The tendency to overestimate the frequency or likelihood of events that are easily recalled or vivid in memory.

The tendency to judge the probability of an event based on how well it represents a prototype or stereotype.

A type of representativeness bias where people ignore base rates when making judgments.

The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the anchor) when making judgments.

Judgments of probability are influenced by the perceived similarity between an event and a prototype or stereotype.

Estimating the probability of a conjunction of events by considering the individual probabilities of each event, without taking into account the fact that a conjunction event is less likely than its individual components.

A type of bias that arises from the use of heuristics and can lead to systematic errors in judgment.

The tendency to favor the first model considered, even if other models are more accurate. This may occur because people are less likely to invest the effort to build additional models.

A logical argument that uses a specific rule to draw a conclusion. It's often used to solve problems and make decisions.

A logical argument that uses a specific rule to draw a conclusion. It's often used to solve problems and make decisions.

An invalid argument that assumes a specific conclusion based on a specific condition.

An invalid argument that assumes a specific conclusion based on a specific condition.

Reasoning based on the believability of the premises, rather than the actual logical validity of the argument.

The ability to consider multiple models or perspectives when reasoning, which can lead to more accurate conclusions.

A type of logical argument with two premises and a conclusion, evaluating the relationship between categories.

The tendency to be influenced by the overall 'atmosphere' of the premises, especially the quantity and quality of the terms (e.g., 'all' vs 'some').

A mental model representing relationships between categories, used to draw conclusions in syllogisms.

The process of constructing and validating mental models to arrive at a conclusion in syllogisms.

The ability to hold and manipulate information in short-term memory, influencing performance in syllogisms.

A type of reasoning error where people fail to reach the correct conclusion due to a mismatch between the mental model and the premises.

The process of clarifying the premises of a syllogism in order to improve reasoning accuracy and reduce errors.

When an individual's behavior or beliefs are influenced by the opinions or actions of a group, even if those opinions or actions contradict their own judgments.

The impact of a person in a position of authority on the decisions and actions of others, often leading to compliance or obedience even when the individual has doubts or concerns.

The tendency for group discussion to strengthen pre-existing opinions or beliefs, leading to more extreme positions than individuals would hold on their own.

A mode of thinking that occurs within a group when striving for unanimity overrides critical thinking and realistic appraisal of alternatives.

The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easy to recall or vividly imagined.

A group of people, even with individual flaws, can collectively make better decisions than the best individual in the group.

A method for improving decision-making by iteratively challenging assumptions and refining estimates.

A group bias where individuals are influenced by a perceived authority figure, leading to unquestioning acceptance of decisions.

A group bias where individuals are influenced by the first piece of information encountered, even if it's inaccurate, leading to biased decisions.

The ability of a group to cancel out random errors in individual judgment, leading to more accurate decisions.

A decision-making framework where individuals evaluate choices based on the potential gains and losses relative to a reference point, often the current situation.

Individuals tend to be more averse to potential losses than they are attracted to equivalent potential gains. This asymmetry in how we value gains and losses leads to irrational decision-making.

People tend to be risk-averse when faced with potential gains, preferring sure outcomes over risky ones. However, they become risk-seeking when facing potential losses, choosing risky options over sure losses.

When assessing probabilities, people tend to overemphasize the significance of changes closer to certainty (0% or 100%). This can lead to irrational choices, as small changes near certainty are perceived as much more significant than larger shifts away from certainty.

People tend to be more sensitive to increases in probability than decreases in probability. This can lead to inconsistent choices across different scenarios.

The tendency to overemphasize the perceived significance of small changes in probability when they are closer to certainty (0% or 100%). This can lead to irrational choices, as we tend to overvalue small probabilities near certainty.

A theory that explains how people make decisions under uncertainty. It suggests that individuals make choices based on subjective valuations of potential outcomes, rather than purely objective probabilities.