Psychology Chapter on Reasoning and Decision Making

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Questions and Answers

What is noted about reasoners and model construction?

They are unable to construct alternative models.

They usually only construct one model. (correct)

They tend to construct multiple models.

They frequently disregard model construction.

What correlation is indicated regarding the number of models considered and accuracy?

A positive correlation exists.

A negative correlation exists.

A fluctuating correlation exists.

No correlation exists. (correct)

Which of the following represents valid reasoning from the framing table?

Some cigarettes are inexpensive. (correct)

Some addictive things are cigarettes.

No addictive things are inexpensive. (correct)

Therefore, some cigarettes are not addictive.

Which reasoning form demonstrates valid modus tollens?

Not taking the bus, therefore not raining. (C) Signup and view all the answers

Which statement is categorized as invalid affirmation of the consequent?

I took the bus, therefore it was raining. (B) Signup and view all the answers

According to the content, what is the accuracy percentage for valid modus ponens?

97% (D) Signup and view all the answers

Which of these statements is characterized as invalid?

Therefore, some cigarettes are not addictive. (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which reasoning demonstrates a low accuracy rate in the context provided?

Invalid denial of the antecedent. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary characteristic of heuristics in decision-making?

They simplify decision processes but may cause bias. (C) Signup and view all the answers

In the availability heuristic, what tendency do people have regarding events?

They overestimate rare events and underestimate common events. (C) Signup and view all the answers

What is the conjunction fallacy in decision-making?

Assuming specific conditions are more probable than general ones. (C) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements best describes base rate neglect?

Overestimating probabilities based on representativeness. (A) Signup and view all the answers

What effect does anchoring have on probability estimations?

It can influence estimations based on initial exposure. (D) Signup and view all the answers

What is true about the examples given in Chapman & Johnson's study regarding anchors?

There is a correlation between anchors and best estimates. (D) Signup and view all the answers

How do incentives and cognitive capacity affect accuracy in judgment related to anchoring?

They have minimal impact on accuracy. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What role does ecological rationality play in the context of biases in decision-making?

It posits that biases can be rational based on specific environmental contexts. (D) Signup and view all the answers

What conclusion can be drawn from the premises: All Psychologists are Comedians; All Comedians are Tap-Dancers?

All Psychologists are Tap-Dancers. (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best represents the atmosphere of premises in syllogisms?

They shape the quality and quantity of conclusions made. (A) Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of creating a composite model during syllogistic reasoning?

To ensure no alternative models contradict the conclusion drawn. (C) Signup and view all the answers

In syllogistic reasoning, how does having higher working memory affect the accuracy of conclusions drawn?

It generally leads to faster and more accurate conclusions. (C) Signup and view all the answers

What can be inferred from the premises: No Artists are Bakers; All Bakers are Candlestick-makers?

All Candlestick-makers are not Artists. (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements correctly reflects a negative conclusion in syllogistic reasoning?

No cats are mammals. (A) Signup and view all the answers

In the context of mental models used for syllogistic reasoning, what is the first step in drawing a conclusion from premises?

Constructing a mental model of the world implied by the premises. (A) Signup and view all the answers

What common result is noted when more alternative models are considered during reasoning?

Less accurate and slower conclusions are drawn. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected outcome of choosing Program A in a scenario where 600 people are at risk?

72% chance of saving 200 people (C) Signup and view all the answers

Which option would likely appeal to a risk-averse individual when faced with potential gains?

A guaranteed £500 (C) Signup and view all the answers

In terms of loss aversion, which statement is the most accurate?

Losing £1000 feels worse than gaining £1000 feels good. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What is the decision-making pattern observed when probabilities approach certainty?

Changes in probability significantly affect choices. (C) Signup and view all the answers

Which option best describes the reference-dependence concept?

Choices are made based on relative gains or losses. (A) Signup and view all the answers

In the lotteries with a chance to win $250, which improvement in probability was perceived as more significant?

Improving from 5% to 10% (B) Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of Prospect Theory primarily highlights the issues of valuation versus choice?

The impact of limited scope on decisions. (C) Signup and view all the answers

What is the psychological tendency when people consider choices involving potential losses?

They become increasingly risk-seeking. (D) Signup and view all the answers

What is one major benefit of group decision-making mentioned?

Wisdom of the crowd (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which situation is highlighted as detrimental to group performance?

Conformity within homogeneous teams (B) Signup and view all the answers

What is dialectical bootstrapping designed to improve?

Accuracy of individual estimates (A) Signup and view all the answers

What is a limitation of group decision-making according to the content?

Systematic errors cannot always be identified (D) Signup and view all the answers

How do groups perform compared to the best individual in the group?

Better, except for groups of two members (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which factor is NOT listed as a pitfall in group decision-making?

Optimism bias (A) Signup and view all the answers

What aspect is emphasized as crucial for improving group decision-making?

Independence and diversity among members (D) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is highlighted as an ineffective approach when making estimates?

Anchoring on initial beliefs (C) Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant criticism of the somatic marker hypothesis?

It overestimates the need for somatic cues in decision-making. (C), It suggests unconscious knowledge is essential for decision outcomes. (D) Signup and view all the answers

What was one of the proposed methods to evaluate understanding of the game in vmPFC patients?

Estimate frequency of wins for each deck. (B) Signup and view all the answers

Which brain structures are highlighted as key in relation to somatic signals according to the somatic marker hypothesis?

vmPFC and orbitofrontal cortex. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What phenomenon was illustrated by the KLM and Pan-Am incident?

The impact of authority on safety decision-making. (A) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a characteristic of groupthink?

Striving for consensus and avoiding conflict. (B) Signup and view all the answers

What was the outcome of the group decision-making study involving traffic felony cases?

Discussion led to increased polarization in guilt ratings. (C) Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following represents a problem with relying solely on somatic cues in decision-making?

Somatic cues can lead to over-reliance on emotional responses. (A) Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the suggested improvements to the methodology regarding the assessment of vmPFC patients' decision-making?

Adopting a numeric scale for estimating outcomes. (B) Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Probability Judgments

Probability judgments often deviate from probability theory
Heuristics (simplifying strategies) can reduce effort but are prone to bias/error
Ecological rationality means that apparent biases can be rational responses, given how humans make decisions.

Availability Heuristic

People overestimate rare events and underestimate common ones
Memory plays a significant role, as people recall more easily memorable events

Effect of Memory

Participants recalled famous names more often than less famous names, even when the groups were of equal size
This demonstrates how availability influences judgments.

Conjuction Fallacy

Participants frequently overestimate how many words fit specific patterns in a novel when given novel length in words.
This shows a tendency to overestimate the probability of a conjunction.

Representativeness

Judgments of probability are frequently based on assessments of similarity
This heuristic often leads to base-rate neglect, where people ignore prior probabilities in their judgments.
Example: A description of Jack being a 45-year old man could lead observers to overestimate how likely he is to be involved in specific professions (such as engineering or library science), despite overall population data not supporting these beliefs.

Anchoring

People tend to rely on initial information (the "anchor") when making estimations.
Adjustments from the anchor are often insufficient, resulting in biased estimates.

Gambler's Fallacy

Believing that a streak of outcomes increases the likelihood of a particular future outcome or causes a change in the probability of another outcome.
This reflects the misperception of randomness.

Past Experience

Inappropriate generalization of past experience is a type of reasoning error in decision making
This can lead to over- or under-estimation of probabilities based on past occurrences.

Framing and Experience

Choices/Decisions based on information presented in differing ways may have different impact.
Relevant prior experience can impact judgement

Mental Models:

Construct a mental model of a situation (based on premises)
Generate possible conclusions to check
Validate alternative models for alternative conclusions
All psychologists are comedians and all comedians are psychopaths.

Propositional Reasoning / IGT (Iowa Gambling Task)

People often demonstrate poor judgement in estimating gains and losses and the odds of each, especially in tasks like the IGT (Iowa Gambling Task)
A mental model to support decision making is not always a successful strategy to maximize profits or outcome
A loss-aversion bias contributes significantly towards poor estimates in tasks like the IGT

Group Decision Making

Conformity (e.g., Asch Conformity Experiment)
Authority (e.g., leadership influences and decision-making)
Polarization (e.g., group discussions intensify pre-existing opinions)
Groupthink (e.g., decisions that are made in groups to avoid criticism)
Wisdom of the crowd (e.g., collective wisdom and group judgement). Note: Wisdom of the crowd is effective in cancelling out random errors but less effective in areas of systematic bias (e.g. anchoring errors).

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Description

This quiz explores various concepts related to reasoning, decision-making heuristics, and the construction of models. It addresses valid and invalid reasoning forms, accuracy rates in logical deductions, and cognitive biases like base rate neglect and the conjunction fallacy. Test your understanding of these psychological principles and their applications.