Probability and Random Variables
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Questions and Answers

Which of the following best describes the role of probability in real-world modeling?

  • Probability is used only when the system is inherently random at a quantum level.
  • Probability is only relevant when the outcome of an experiment is completely unknown beforehand.
  • Probability helps to simplify models by abstracting away complexities that are too difficult or unnecessary to model deterministically. (correct)
  • Probability is used to model systems only when deterministic models have been proven to be inaccurate.

A deterministic experiment is one in which the outcome is unpredictable.

False (B)

Define a 'sample space' in the context of probability and provide an example.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. For example, when flipping a coin, the sample space is {Heads, Tails}.

In probability, a random variable is a __________ description of the outcomes of a random experiment.

<p>numerical</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is an example of a continuous random variable?

<p>The height of students in a class (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability of event A, defined as rolling a dice and getting a number greater than 4?

<p>1/3 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each concept with its correct description:

<p>Deterministic Experiment = Experiment where the outcome is known beforehand. Random Experiment = Experiment where the outcome is not known beforehand. Sample Space = The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Event = Any subset of the sample space.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability of picking a Samsung phone given that the phone is not working, denoted as $P(SP|NW)$?

<p>$ rac{5}{12}$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The probability of picking a non-working phone given that it is a Samsung phone ($P(NW|SP)$) is equal to the probability of picking a Samsung phone given that it is a non-working phone ($P(SP|NW)$).

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a phone is picked at random from the box, what is the probability that it is a Samsung phone?

<p>2/3</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the information, there are a total of ______ phones in the box.

<p>60</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does $P(NW|SP)$ represent in this context?

<p>The probability that a Samsung phone is not working. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How many total phones are not working?

<p>12 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which formula correctly represents the conditional probability $P(SP|NW)$?

<p>$P(SP|NW) = \frac{P(SP \cap NW)}{P(NW)}$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the context, more than half of the Samsung phones are non-working.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability that a randomly selected MI phone is not working?

<p>1/10</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of decision tree construction, what is the primary purpose of splitting training samples into smaller bags based on feature values?

<p>To create more homogeneous subsets of data, facilitating decision-making. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of decision tree construction, it is generally advisable to continue splitting nodes indefinitely to achieve perfect classification of the training data.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In constructing a decision tree, the process of dividing a node into sub-nodes is known as ______.

<p>splitting</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following Blood Pressure (BP) levels with the corresponding sample sets.

<p>BP = Low = S1, S3 BP = Normal = S2, S6 BP = High = S4, S5, S7</p> Signup and view all the answers

If fever is conditionally independent of cough given Covid, then $P(Fever | Covid, Cough) = P(Fever | Cough)$

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When modeling $P(Fever, Covid, Cough)$ without assuming conditional independence, how many parameters are typically required?

<p>7 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the Naïve Bayes' model, what key assumption is made about the effects given the cause?

<p>The effects are independent given the cause.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a Naïve Bayes' model, if we have effects $E_1$, $E_2$, and $E_3$ and a cause $C$, then $P(E_1, E_2, E_3, C) = P(C) * P(E_1 | C) * P(E_2 | C) * P(E_3 | C)$. This is based on the assumption of conditional ______ between the effects.

<p>independence</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is the correct formula for $P(Effect_1, Effect_2, ..., Effect_n, Cause)$ in a Naïve Bayes' model?

<p>$P(Cause) * \prod_{k=1}^{n} P(Effect_k | Cause)$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the term with its description in the context of the Naïve Bayes' model:

<p>Cause = Represents the class label in a classification problem. Effect = Represents a feature used for classification. Conditional Independence = Assumption that effects are independent given the cause. Parameters = Values that define the conditional probability distributions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the graph representing influences, if Covid is the cause and Fever and Cough are effects, what does this structure imply according to the Naïve Bayes' approach?

<p>Fever and Cough are independent of each other, given Covid. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Using conditional independence assumptions always increases the number of parameters needed to accurately model a joint probability distribution.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain how the Naïve Bayes’ model simplifies the calculation of probabilities when dealing with multiple effects.

<p>It assumes that the effects are conditionally independent of each other given the cause, allowing the joint probability to be calculated as the product of individual conditional probabilities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a classification problem using the Naïve Bayes’ model, what do the 'effects' typically represent?

<p>Features (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), what does the variable $λ_i^{(n)}$ represent?

<p>The belongingness of data point $x^{(n)}$ to the $i^{th}$ Gaussian component. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In GMM, recalculating $μ_i$, $Σ_i$, and $π_i$ aims to minimize, rather than maximize, the log likelihood.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Write the equation for calculating $μ_i$ (mean) in a Gaussian Mixture Model using belongingness values.

<p>$\mu_i = \frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)} x^{(n)}}{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)}}$</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of GMM, the parameter $π_i$ represents the ______ of choosing the $i^{th}$ Gaussian component.

<p>probability</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of calculating belongingness in the Expectation Step of GMM?

<p>To estimate the probability that each data point belongs to each cluster. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The covariance matrix, $Σ_i$, in GMM defines the center of the $i^{th}$ Gaussian component.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Describe in words, how the value of $π_i$ is calculated in GMM.

<p>The value of $π_i$ is calculated by dividing the sum of the belongingness values for cluster <em>i</em> by the total number of data points.</p> Signup and view all the answers

The M in GMM stands for ______, where parameters are updated.

<p>Maximization</p> Signup and view all the answers

What benefit does soft clustering provide in GMM compared to hard clustering methods?

<p>It allows data points to belong to multiple clusters with varying degrees of membership. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the GMM parameter with its update calculation:

<p>$μ_i$ = $\frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)} x^{(n)}}{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)}}$ $Σ_i$ = $\frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)} (x^{(n)} - μ_i)(x^{(n)} - μ_i)^T}{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)}}$ $π_i$ = $\frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \lambda_i^{(n)}}{N}$</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Probability

The study and quantification of uncertainty.

Random Experiment

Situations where the outcome is not known in advance.

Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

Event

Any subset of the sample space.

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Random variable (rv)

A numerical description of the outcome of a random experiment.

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Discrete Random Variable

Takes only a countable number of discrete values.

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Continuous Random Variable

Takes uncountably infinite number of possible values.

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Conditional Probability

The probability of an event A occurring, given that another event B has already occurred.

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Conditional Probability Formula

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

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Problem Scenario

Event: Picking a phone and finding it's not working. Question: Probability it's a Samsung?

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Phone Distribution

40 Samsung phones (SP) and 20 MI phones (MIP) in the box.

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Not Working Phones

10 Samsung phones and 2 MI phones are not working (NW).

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P(SP|NW) Definition

P(SP|NW) means 'Probability of Samsung Phone, given it's Not Working'.

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P(SP|NW) Calculation

Samsung phones not working / # Phones not working

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P(SP|NW) Result

10 (Not Working Samsungs) / 12 (Total Not Working Phones) = 5/6

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Final Answer

Probability that a randomly picked not working phone is Samsung is 5/6.

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Decision Tree

A diagram that models decisions based on features, splitting data into smaller subsets.

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Splitting Data

The process of dividing a dataset into smaller, more homogeneous groups based on feature values.

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Feature Value

A characteristic or attribute used to make decisions or predictions in a decision tree. (e.g., BP = High)

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Smaller Bags

Subsets of the original dataset created after splitting based on feature values.

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Stopping Criteria

The rule to stop creating decision trees that are too complex, which can lead to overfitting.

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Conditional Independence

When a variable is independent of another given a third variable.

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Chain Rule with Conditional Independence

Breaks down joint probability into conditional probabilities, simplifying calculations.

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Graphical Representation

A graphical way to represent the relationships between variables.

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Cause and Independent Effects

One cause influences multiple independent effects.

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Naïve Assumption

A simplifying assumption that effects are independent given a cause.

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Naïve Bayes' Model

A probabilistic classifier based on Bayes' theorem with strong independence assumptions.

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Naïve Bayes' Equation

Model where probability is the product of the probability of the cause and probability of effects given the cause.

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Classification Problem

Predicting a class label based on features.

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Cause in Classification

In Naive Bayes: class label (class 1, class 2, etc.).

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Effect in Classification

Features used to predict the class label.

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Belongingness Coefficient (λ)

The probability that data point x(n) belongs to the ith Gaussian component in a mixture model.

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GMM Parameter Re-estimation

Iteratively refine cluster parameters (μ, Σ, π) to maximize the likelihood that the GMM fits the observed data.

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GMM Mean (μ) Calculation

Calculating the means of each cluster by weighting each data point by its belongingness to that cluster.

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GMM Covariance (Σ) Calculation

Calculating covariance matrices for each Gaussian component, reflecting data spread, using belongingness.

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GMM Prior (π) Calculation

Calculating the prior probability of each cluster based on average belongingness of all data points to that cluster.

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Soft Clustering

Clusters are not hard-assigned; data points have probabilities of belonging to multiple clusters.

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Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)

A probabilistic model that assumes all the data points are generated from a mixture of a finite number of Gaussian distributions with unknown parameters.

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Log Likelihood

Logarithm of the likelihood function, used to simplify calculations and optimization in GMMs.

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Expectation-Maximization (EM)

The process of iteratively updating the parameters of a GMM (means, covariances, and mixing coefficients) to maximize the log-likelihood of the observed data.

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𝜋𝑖 (Mixing Coefficient)

The ratio of the number of data points assigned to cluster 'i' to the total number of samples in a dataset.

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Study Notes

Bioimage Computing Overview

  • Bioimage computing leverages machine learning, computer vision, and image processing.
  • It enhances medical image diagnosis.
  • Aids clinical decision support systems.
  • Improves image quality.

Syllabus Breakdown

  • Reconstruction: Focuses on mathematical models for image regularity.
    • Covers random fields.
    • Includes practical data sampling and acquisition schemes.
  • Restoration: Employs deconvolution and degradation models for corrupted and missing data.
    • Utilizes Bayesian graphical modeling and inference.
    • Explores regression methods for bioimage filtering.
  • Image Segmentation, Delineation & Classification: Clustering, graph partitioning and classification are used.
    • Includes mixture models, expectation maximization, variational methods.
    • Applies geometric and statistical modeling, and computer-aided diagnosis.
  • Registration: Focuses on deformation models and optimization algorithms.
    • Includes 2D-3D and multi-modal registration.

Course Logistics

  • Instructor is Angshuman Paul with contact at [email protected].
  • Class hours are:
    • Monday: 3 PM-3.50 PM
    • Wednesday: 3 PM-3.50 PM
    • Thursday: 3 PM-3.50 PM

Evaluation Components

  • The evaluation is tentatively split into:
    • Quiz (30%).
    • Viva (30%).
    • Minor (40%).

Study Materials

  • Core books include:
    • "Fundamentals of Light Microscopy and Electronic Imaging" by Murphy D.B. (2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.).
    • "Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning" by Bishop, C. (2006, Springer).
    • Additional online materials may be introduced.

Prerequisites

  • Requires a basic understanding of mathematics.

Medical Images Context

  • Most medical images result from electromagnetic (EM) waves, such as:
    • X-rays, CT scans.
    • MRI.
    • Histopathology images and optical microscopy images.
    • PET.
    • OCT.
  • Some medical images use sound waves, like ultrasound.

Importance of Bioimage Computing

  • Decision support systems offer:
    • Improved diagnostic accuracy.
    • Automated diagnosis.
    • Enhanced image quality.
  • Bioimage computing enables:
    • Faster processing.
    • Telemedicine applications.
    • More affordable health care.

Current Status and Challenges

  • The field has seen significant progress and achieved human-level or superhuman accuracy
  • Decision support systems now have FDA approval
  • Current challenges in bioimage informatics:
    • Generalizability.
    • Explainability.
    • Cost of annotation.
    • High computational requirements.

Why Study Bioimage Computing?

  • Learn classical and state-of-the-art approaches.
  • Improve existing methodologies.
  • Push the boundaries of current capabilities.
  • Design innovative solutions.
  • Address critical challenges in the field.
  • Apply understandings and innovations to other fields.

Probability and Uncertainty

  • The real world is full of uncertainties; this is an important consideration for many fields
  • It is very hard to model everything, and so abstractions are frequently required

Experiments

  • Deterministic experiments have known outcomes.
    • For example, an object released from a roof will move downwards.
  • Random experiments outcomes are unknown beforehand.
    • For example, rolling a dice.

Sample Space

  • The set of possible outcomes.
  • For rolling dice, it is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.}.
  • Each outcome is a sample point.
  • Sample spaces can be finite like dice, or infinite like the amount of rainfall.

Event

  • It is any subset of the sample space.
  • For example, rolling a dice can have the event A = { 1, 2}

Random Variables

  • Used in probability.
  • Describes numerical outcomes of an experiment.
  • A function that assign numerical values of an experiment.
  • Discrete random variables example: {sunny, rainy, cloudy}.
  • Continuous random variables e.g. measuring temperatures: [6.7°, 46.2°].

Probability of an Event

  • P(A) = (Number of elements in set A) / (Number of elements in the sample space S)
  • Another form: P(A) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes)
  • For example, the probability of resulting an odd number from throwing dice = {1,3,5} = 0.5 6
  • Limitation: Requires equally likely outcomes.

Frequentist Approach to Probability

  • In experiments performed "n" times, where event A occurs "n(A)" times
  • Relative frequency: fr(A) = n(A)/n.
  • Probability: = lim fr(A) = lim n(A)/n, where n trends to infinity.

Probability Measures

  • Probability: P(A) or probability function P(.) assigns a probability measure to an event A. P(A), measures the chance event A occurs.

Characteristics of Probability

  • P(A) has to be between 0 and 1.
  • P(Null) = 0.
  • P(S) is 1.

Probability Disjoint Properties

  • Countable sequence of disjoint events like: P(A₁ U A2 U ... U An) = P(A₁) + P(A₂) + ... + P(An)
  • Mutaully exclusive: Events don't occur simultaneously.
  • Example: Rolling dice is disjoint, can't roll a 1 and a 2 at the same time
  • S = AU Ac
  • where P(S) = 1 = P(AU Ac) = + P(A)+ P(Ac)

Probability Adition Rule

  • P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

Revisiting Random Variables

  • A list containing (P1, P2, ..., Pk)
  • Often represented as a histogram

Continous Random Variables

  • Represented by f(v)
  • Area under the curve is 1
  • f(v) ≥ 0 at all points where v is a continous random variable

Conditional Probability

  • Conditional probability: P(SP|NW)
  • Equation: P(SP|NW) = P(NW|SP) P(SP) = P(SP∩NW)

Bayes' Theorem

P(A|B) = P(A∩B) = P(B|A) P(A) P(B) P(B)

  • This decomposes into P(Cause | Effect) = P(Effect|Cause) P(Cause) P(Effect)

  • In simpler terms where E may be caused by c₁ or c₂, then can use the following P(c1|e₁) + P(c2|e₁) = 1

Independent Events

  • Defined as: P(A|B) = P(A)
  • Another form: P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)

Joint Probability Distribution

  • A joint probability distribution of X and Y
  • Probability distribution on all possible pairs of outputs
  • Weather and Power cut

Chain Rule

  • Probability rule where:
  • P(A ∩ An-1∩∩ A₁) = P (An|An-1∩∩ A₁) P(An-1∩∩ A₁) … …
  • Similarly, P(An-1∩ An-2∩∩ A₁) = P(An-1|An-2∩∩A₁) P(An-2∩∩ A1) …
  • For 3 events, the formula is P(A ∩ An-1∩∩A₁) = P (An|An-1∩∩A₁) P(An-1|An-2∩∩ A₁) P(An-2|An-3∩∩ A₁) ...P(A1) …

Inference by enumeration

  • Any proposition, add all the boxes where the proposition is true

  • COVID data can be arranged like:

  • Covid with a Cough, No fever =0.21

  • Acovid with Cough, No fever = 0.09

  • With the equation to find:

  • P(¬covid¬fever) =P(¬covid ∩¬fever) P(¬fever)

Independent Events

  • To deal with Fever, Cough, Covid, and Internet Speed (I_Sp)
  • P is P(Fever, Cough, Covid, I_Sp) = P(Fever, Cough, Covid) P(I_Sp)

What is Clustering

Groups are more similar to each other than the sample in other groups

Clustering Techniques

  • Centroid Models -> k-Means, k-medoid
  • Graph-based -> Spectral clustering
  • Distribtuion -> Gaussian Mixture Models
  • Density -> DBSCAN
  • Connectivity -> Hierarchical Clustering
  • Neutral -> Self-organizing map

K-means Clustering

  • Step 1: Determine the "m" clusters
  • Step 2: There is a random intialiazation value to begin
  • Step 3: Assign samples from the closest cluster to the value
  • Step 4: Determien the cluster mean. Redo step 3 if necessary, check change is significant in new sample

Limitations of K-means

  • "K" can be hard determine properly
  • Sensitive to outliers meaning value is affected by rogue signals
  • Random initialisation can lead to varying results

K-medoids

  • Rather than random centroids, "medoids" are selected; the sample closest to the cluster
  • Steps as follows"
  • Create datapoints with various samples from the dataset
  • Random assigin the medoids to the samples
  • Determine all other nearest data point/ medoid to assgin to medaid cluster
  • Calculate the distance from sample to the point - Sum of all distances is the cost

Challenges of K-medoids

  • If new cost > old cost, discard new one
  • Can repeat, or converges in sample and values

DBSCAN

  • Use Density
  • Apply desc size or parameter • Put it each time across • If m number within "i" area. Then that’s the corepoint. • Assign cluster in corepoint • Redo the operation

DBSCAN Adevantages/ Disadvantages

  • No need for a priori knowledge of clusters
  • The non-core point will gets included to green, as not not a stable area to form a cluster

To Perform DBSCAN

    1. Perform density based clustering of application with noise
  • S set data
    1. Choose a value of epsilon and radius in the model
  • Look for poiunts which reside within disc, x1
  1. The Ai cannot be lower that value given for the data, this is called core value
  2. Perform unoin operation, with no more unions are possibble
  • mutalling non overlapping

Variance Describes to the spread of data. Variance = E[(X – μ)²]

Covariance

Pointwise products with the data. Shows joint trend where an increase in a value to also increase.

Joint Matrix

Σ = var(X). cov(X, Y)) (cov(X, Y). var(Y) )

  • Describes joint variance, if points are trending positive or negative

Gaussian Mixture Models

p(xa|μ, σ) = 1 e √2πσ

  • (xa - u)2 / 2σ2
  • Values closer to centre μ, are most likley to have a contributing factor

Steps to clustering to GMM

• Take random samples from what given, and assign it in gaussian space • check which Gaussian point to use •Recaculare mu sigman pi to the max of the likehood • Then repeat steps 2-4 where it goes for a termination criteria

  1. Can terimate the data
  2. when for each cluster
  3. Do not change by a significantly for a few epochs

Using Baysian Theorem

•	To know the likelynesess of  a class, check following
  • Σ=1 in first equation
  • Each Gausian, can be the cluster I belongs
Soft decision vs Hard Decision
Take hard decision which Gaussial, which pont is in
But in a soft we apply probability
  • Look to max the log-likelihood function

Expectation Maxima-tion

  • R randomalise mu sigma
  • E step, check each point woth K Gaussinas
  • m Step, Recaulcalre mu, sigma. Pr for each cluster

Classification Techniques: K- Nearest Neighbours

  1. Plot the raining data
  2. Plot the test data
  3. k nearest neighours
  4. Find k number, label occuring the most , like in 1.0

Types of Nodes in Trees

  • Decision Nodes - Has split to the various data
  • Steps on how to build a split
  1. Want leaf noe to contain data of one clssa only to increasse homegniety
  2. from tree node we want nodesto become homoenus Goal is to reach pure point where you have data of single point
  • As impuiryt increases, entrophy or data increases

In the context of Rolling a Dice

  • The outcome is number < 3
  • A= { 1, 2}

Chain Function and formula

  • If a1…… a2 are even
  • P (ala, A1) then
  • Pala.. A1 Ala1) P (A2| a1……
  • Pa.. A1) = 1…… AA1 . P(A1| A2 AA P …)
  • For Rolling the Dis Ex. if we rolling of lice 4 times, the probably is the roll of Dice is Mutualling

Random Forerest

  • How many trees decide to be
  • Splititning of the nide, such as enteropoy, varaiance
  • Formularizing a tree, which is bootstrap of treei,

Image Regration

  • Find a trans, to have every ppixel to have a correnspondding pixel in the image Input iamge . terage inmage

Image Landmark-based Regration

  • The trans has landmark pO, to have reference images

    • Can be trans,.roat , etc
  • Formula for a new inmage

  • A : (x,y) To a a(x,y)

  • A’ = T (a)

    Transformation ^ = B-a N = b = E B / N A=1 A

For continours Feature for Tree

Check the data

  • P (fever | covid, cough() = P (fever | condidion()
  • The Feaute, covid conditly, Independent with cough

Graphiacal REpresntative

Whatis the poiny

  • Use to Under standing

Limitation

  • A system with Many causes and Effect we ahvveto manaitina large
  • Independent Eventa P = (Au 4 A), u An) Pala, V V, A1+)…..p a v
    • Disjonit mutual exclusice

If one want to find the proabolity  fever
  - P(fever. couvid cough) 24
How  to
  • We need it in foramtation
  • 8 (7 par) If the parmater is low, is to store than aboeve

Bayesion Theerom

P{ a/6) > = Plb] A) Pala}P(a) B

Random Desction
  • How to store tabele, or more efficicen
  • A-H for random inforamatiorn?
  • More the par, more are the prt
  • It is in in our mind

In a conditon

P fever cony

Conidition indepeindtance

  • fever a cough or probabitlic

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Explore probability concepts, random variables, and their applications in real-world modeling. Questions cover deterministic experiments, sample spaces, continuous random variables, and probability calculations. Includes conditional probability scenarios and matching concepts.

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