Population Projection Methods

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Questions and Answers

The average increase in population per decade is referred to as:

  • Growth rate
  • Incremental value
  • Geometrical factor
  • Arithmetical increase (correct)

Using the arithmetical method, if the average increase per decade is 4000 and N (number of decades) = 2, what is the total population added to the base population?

  • 10000
  • 2000
  • 8000 (correct)
  • 4000

The geometrical increase method assumes that population increases by:

  • A fixed number
  • A variable rate
  • Randomly
  • A constant percentage (correct)

The exponential population growth method shares its principle with which of the following methods?

<p>Geometrical method (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the provided data, which method projected the smallest population size for 2026?

<p>Incremental (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the provided data, what was the average incremental increase in population per decade?

<p>-1448.33 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In population projection, 'incremental increase' refers to:

<p>Rate of increase in the growth rate itself (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which population projection method is most appropriate when the population growth rate is declining?

<p>Incremental (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The graphical method of population projection is best applied when:

<p>Accurate statistical data is limited (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The formula $P_n = P_0 + N \cdot I_a + \frac{N(N+1)}{2} \cdot I_i$ is characteristic of which population projection method?

<p>Incremental (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Referring to the example case, what value of 'N' (number of decades) was used for projecting the population in all methods?

<p>1.5 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of population data, what does the term 'souls' represent?

<p>Individual persons (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the given scenario, why was the incremental increase method chosen for the final development plan projection?

<p>It accurately reflects the observed declining trend in population growth. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the population in 2011 was 27500 and it increased to 31142 in 2021, what is the average population increase per decade?

<p>3648.75 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was the projected population for 2026 using the graphical method in the case study?

<p>31142 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary limitation of the geometrical increase method in population projection?

<p>It is unsuitable for scenarios where population growth is declining. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The arithmetical method of population projection assumes that population increases:

<p>Linearly (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the provided data, what was the projected population ($P_s$) for 2026 calculated using the Arithmetical Increase Method?

<p>36615 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In which of the following population projection methods is the term $(1 + R_a)^N$ used?

<p>Geometrical (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the case presented, what final population projection was adopted for the Development Plan?

<p>28500 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Arithmetical Increase

Average population increase each decade.

Geometrical Increase

Population increases by a constant percentage.

Incremental Increase

Accounts for rate of change in population growth.

Graphical Method

Uses visual extrapolation to estimate future population.

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What does "souls" mean?

Represents the number of individual people.

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What is P_s?

Total population by arithmetic method.

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Incremental Increase Formula

Base population + N * I_a + N(N+1)/2 * I_i

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Arithmetical method growth

Population grows linearly

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Graphical method use

Graph showing population growth

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Incremental method use

Used when growth is declining

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Study Notes

  • Projected populations for 2026 using different methods are:
    • Arithmetical Increase: 36,615
    • Geometrical Increase: 39,664
    • Incremental Increase: 28,384
    • Graphical Method: ~31,142
  • The Incremental Increase Method is considered the most realistic due to a decline in growth rate and urban-to-metro migration.
  • The projected population for the Development Plan is 28,500.

Population Projection Methods

  • The average increase in population per decade is called the arithmetical increase.

  • In the arithmetical method, if the average increase per decade is 4000 and N = 2, the population added to the base is 8000.

  • Geometrical increase assumes population increases by a constant percentage.

  • The exponential population growth method is also known as the geometrical method.

  • The incremental method showed the lowest population projection for 2026 in this case.

  • The average incremental increase in population was -1448.33 per decade.

  • Incremental increase refers to the rate of increase in the growth rate.

  • The incremental method is best suited when population growth is declining.

  • The graphical method is best used when accurate statistical data is not available.

  • The formula ( P_n = P_0 + N \cdot I_a + \frac{N(N+1)}{2} \cdot I_i ) is used in the incremental method.

  • The value of N used in all methods in the example is 1.5.

  • "Souls" represent individual persons in the context of population data.

  • The incremental method was preferred for final planning because it reflects a declining trend.

  • If the population was 27500 in 2011 and 31142 in 2021, the average increase per decade is 3648.75.

  • The projected population by the graphical method in this case is 31142.

  • The main limitation of the geometrical increase method is that it is not suitable when growth is declining.

  • The arithmetical method always projects population linearly.

  • The value of ( P_s ) by the Arithmetical Increase Method was 36615.

  • The expression (1 + Ra)^N is used in the geometrical method.

  • The final population projection adopted for the Development Plan is 28,500.

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