Paris Climate Agreement

• Climate change is an issue affecting multiple states simultaneously, requiring collective action.
• Many states worry about "free riders" that benefit from others' mitigation efforts without contributing.

Paris Climate Agreement

• Signed in 2016 as a UN agreement in Paris.
• Aims to slow climate change, targeting less than a 2-degree increase.
• Each signatory creates Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for climate mitigation.
• The agreement lacks policing; goals are voluntary, which causes issues with effectiveness.
• NDCs are updated every 5 years.
• Countries share technology and information transparently.
• In 2015, 195 states adopted it in principle,175 formally ratified it in 2016, and 196 have ratified it as of today
• Signatories are obliged to create Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that reduce greenhouse gases and pollution.
• Adherence to NDCs is obligatory but not enforced, so the terms aren't actually binding.
• In 2017, US President Trump announced his intent to withdraw, claiming it would "undermine the US economy," but officially withdrew in 2020.
• In 2021, the US rejoined the agreement.
• Australia has complied, raising its emission reduction NDC from 28% by 2050 to 43% in 2022.
• Australia is reluctant to diminish the power of the coal industry.

Causes of Climate Change

• Burning fossil fuels
• Deforestation
• Transportation
• Consumption

What Makes Climate Change a Global Problem?

• Climate change affects every person worldwide due to rising temperatures and sea levels.
• Global actors have a responsibility to mitigate climate change's spread.
• Volcanic eruptions release dangerous gases into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation contributes to higher CO2 levels.

Energy Consumption

• Energy consumption shifted from coal to oil and gas, but the newer alternatives likely aren't much better.
• The recent shift from coal to other fuel sources is because the others are cheaper and easier to mine and produce.
• Brazil experiences a high rate of deforestation for economic export.
• Planes use the most fossil fuels.
• Many forms of transportation will eventually eliminate the need for fossil fuel emissions, with the train network going carbon-free in 2050.
• Developed countries have higher household consumption due to more appliances that emit CO2, but it is difficult to change people's daily habits.

Israeli Hostage Negotiations (January 2025)

• January 19, 2025: Israel and Hamas agreed to a three-stage ceasefire; Hamas released three female hostages.

• January 25, 2025: Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers.

• January 27, 2025: Tens of thousands of Palestinians started returning to northern Gaza after the ceasefire deal.

• January 28, 2025: Reports emerged stating that eight hostages scheduled for release were confirmed dead.

• January 30, 2025: Hamas released eight hostages—three Israeli and five Thai nationals.

• Optimism arose due to ceasefire talks and hostage release.

• The situation relaxed with hostage releases and ceasefire deals underway, but the land conflict will likely persist.

• Key players: Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, US, Israel, The Red Cross.

• There is hope that the ceasefire and hostage deal goes through, ending the war.

Global Actors

• A state has recognised and sovereign control over a defined territory.
• Control entails regulating citizens' lives, maintaining order, and representing citizens internationally.
• States should be referred to as "state" not "country".

Global Governance

• Global governance includes systems and processes that ensure transparency, accountability, equity, participation, and the rule of law.
• International law is fundamental for global governance, managing competing interests between states.
• Examples of global entities: UN, ICC, IMF.
• A non-state actor isn't a state but influences politics.
• A non-state actor is not formally involved in global governance and international law.
• NGOs use public pressure to promote political goals.

The United Nations

• An international organisation of sovereign states containing nearly every state in the world.
• There are 193 member states.
• Only independent states may become members.
• Created after WWII with 51 states to promote diplomacy.
• UN aims to preserve international peace and security, prevent threats to peace, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and promote human rights.

United Nations Structure

• UN General Assembly (GA): 193 countries, the main organ of the UN.
• UN Security Council: Responsible for international peace and security.
• The President of the council rotates monthly.
• There are 5 permanent members: China, France, the Russian Federation, the UK, and the US.
• There are 10 non-permanent members who serve two-year terms and are elected by the GA.
• For a decision to pass, 9/15 members must vote in favour and all permanent members have to sign off.

Action on Climate Change

• Until 1992, states acted individually on climate.
• UNFCCC globalized the reform.
• The UNFCCC is a foundational treaty establishing the legal framework for addressing climate change.
• It was adopted at the Earth Summit in Brazil and ratified on March 21, 1994, by 198 states.
• All share responsibility, but developed countries have greater responsibility due to higher emissions and resources.
• It included non-binding targets for emission reduction and no enforcement mechanisms, laying the groundwork for later legally binding agreements.
• COP refers to the Conference of parties to the UNFCCC (annual meetings).
• At COP 1 (1995), countries acknowledged evidence of human influence on the climate, setting a precedent for future unified action and the Paris Climate Agreement.

Mitigation vs. Adaptation

• Mitigation: Trying to slow the spread of climate change.
• Adaptation: Changing our way of life so we can live in a worst-case scenario.

Non-State Actor (Extinction Rebellion)

• Established by 15 researchers in the UK in 2018.
• Declared a climate and ecological emergency to show urgency for change.
• Extinction Rebellion wants governments to halt biodiversity loss and reduce GHG emissions to net zero by 2025.

State Responses (National Interests)

• National Security
• Economic Prosperity
• Regional Relationships
• International Standing

Australia’s Response

• The fossil fuel industry accounts for 4.5% of Australia's gross value added (2022).
• 68% of Australians live in areas affected by severe natural disasters.
• The 2019-2020 summer bushfires reduced tourism by $2.8 billion.
• The 2022 Eastern floods generated $7 billion in industry losses.
• Scott Morrison's government was less ambitious on climate change actions, with NDCs set to 26% by 2030.
• Morrison favored private sector-led action, prioritizing political stability and economic interests over security interests.
• Morrison believed climate change would be solved by "can-do capitalism."
• Australia is responsible for 1.3% of global emissions.

Australia's Current Response

• Anthony Albanese's government is more ambitious, with interest in renewables.
• There is a higher NDC target and the first bilateral treaty to support people displaced by climate change.
• Economic and security interests align.
• Albanese stated that the new NDC reflects the government's resolve to urgently step up the pace of action and tackle the climate crisis.
• Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen stated that the world’s climate emergency is Australia’s jobs opportunity.

International Laws

• European Green Deal
• The EU is the single largest market in the world, with a population of >400 million.
• GHG emissions fell from 15.2% in 1990 to 6% in 2023.
• The EU is a global leader for climate reform.
• 94% of Europeans cited climate change as a ‘serious problem’ in 2024.
• The EU has introduced several climate strategies that all members must uphold.
• 2019: EU Green Deal aimed to make the EU the first climate-neutral area in the world by 2050.
• "Fit for 55" aims to cut emissions by at least 55% by 2030.
• Denmark has the most ambitious climate reduction targets, committing to 70% emissions reduction by 2030.
• This is legally binding, with annual reviews and reporting.
• Denmark aims for climate neutrality by 2050 and is committed to ending oil and gas exploration in the North Sea by 2050.
• Denmark aims to rely heavily on wind energy.
• Germany aims for a 65% emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2045.
• The Federal Climate Change Act (2021) sets annual sector-specific emissions targets covering energy, industry, and transportation.
• 80% of electricity consumption will come from renewable sources by 2030.
• The coal phase out date is 2038.
• Only 53% of Poles see climate change as a serious issue, with only 5% willing to make sacrifices.
• The average annual income is $35,000 vs. $70-120,000 in Germany and Denmark.
• Life expectancy is 78 vs. 81 in Germany and Denmark.

• 70% of energy comes from fossil fuels (vs 30% in Germany and Denmark).

• Politicians were under pressure to ensure EU targets didn’t hinder economic growth, so PM Morawiecki negotiated special concessions in EU Green deal.
• Poland is the largest beneficiary of the EU’s Just Transition Mechanism (JTM), receiving $17.5B to support workers, labor forces, and invest in green infrastructure.
• New Polish PM Donald Tusk (2024) advocates for a stronger climate commitment, stating that Europe can count on Poland to step up efforts.

Paris Agreement

• This is an International Law signed in Paris in 2015, and it came into force in 2016.
• 196 states signed the law at COP21.
• Currently, 194 states plus the European Union have signed.
• Aims:
  • Limit the average global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees centigrade (and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees)
  • Enhance resilience to climate impacts
  • Align the world's financial flows with these objectives.
• Countries must pledge via NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) how they will commit to global goals.
• Countries must report on their efforts every 5 years to verify progress (2020, 2025, 2030 etc)
• Yes, since 196 states signed in 2015, so it is the first international climate change treaty.
• No, states can choose their own NDCS, there is on enforcement mechanism to ensure states meet NDC’s. The economist believes that there is growing sense that there is little prospect of earth being able to prevent in increase of more than 1.5 degrees