Monetary Policy in Australia
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Questions and Answers

What does the natural rate hypothesis suggest about attempts to lower actual unemployment below the natural rate?

  • They will only increase inflation. (correct)
  • They will have no impact on inflation or unemployment.
  • They will result in a sustained decrease in unemployment.
  • They will decrease inflation without affecting unemployment.

    • How is monetary stimulus characterized in the short run versus the long run?

  • It decreases both inflation and GDP in the short run.
  • It increases nominal GDP but decreases real GDP in the long run.
  • It increases real GDP in the short run, but not in the long run. (correct)
  • It is neutral in both the short and long run.

    • What does the term 'neutrality' refer to in the context of monetary policy?

  • It indicates that all prices increase by different proportions.
  • It implies that adding or subtracting money does not change relative prices. (correct)
  • It signifies that changes in money supply affect relative prices.
  • It means real wages will always rise with increased monetary stimulus.

    • What does the Quantity Theory of Money address regarding long-run monetary neutrality?

    <p>It clarifies the relationship between money supply and transaction velocity.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a critical implication of the natural rate hypothesis for monetary policy?

    <p>Inflation targets may be threatened without reducing unemployment.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one of the main goals of monetary policy in most countries?

    <p>Price stability</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT one of the legislative objectives of monetary policy in Australia?

    <p>Reduction of public debt</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the explicit inflation target set for the Reserve Bank of Australia?

    <p>2-3 percent</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the natural rate hypothesis suggest regarding full employment?

    <p>Unemployment should be maintained at its natural rate</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of these is a reason for establishing an inflation target?

    <p>To provide transparency and accountability</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is part of the monetary authority's instruments?

    <p>Adjusting short-term nominal interest rates</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is aimed by maintaining low average levels of inflation?

    <p>To provide an anchor for inflation expectations</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the monetary policy transmission mechanism do?

    <p>Maps the effects of monetary policy decisions on the economy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which assumption of the quantity theory states that potential output is independent of the money supply?

    <p>Long-run monetary neutrality</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the formula for predicting long-run inflation according to the quantity theory?

    <p>$ il = gM - gY⋆$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If potential output grows at $gY⋆ = 0.02$ and the money supply grows at $gM = 0.06$, what is the predicted long-run inflation?

    <p>$0.04$</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which factor is NOT an assumption of the quantity theory of money?

    <p>Short-term money market effects</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What has caused central banks to abandon the use of money growth targeting in monetary policy?

    <p>All of the above</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does short-run non-neutrality imply for monetary policy?

    <p>Monetary policy affects output gap</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following represents a difficulty with the quantity theory of money?

    <p>Monetary policy influences output in the short run</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one of the controversial topics in macroeconomics related to the natural rate hypothesis?

    <p>Estimation of the natural rate of unemployment</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary function of monetary policy in relation to economic activity?

    <p>Manage short run demand-driven fluctuations</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement accurately describes fiscal policy compared to monetary policy?

    <p>Fiscal policy is more powerful but slower in execution.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) primarily used for?

    <p>To manage daily financial transactions</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What defines the cash rate targeted by the RBA?

    <p>The interest rate for overnight unsecured interbank loans</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens if ESA balances are not in credit by the end of the day?

    <p>Funds must be borrowed from the overnight cash market.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the RBA manage the actual cash rate?

    <p>Through a corridor system with specified bounds</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a method the RBA uses to control the net supply of ESA balances?

    <p>Open market operations involving government bonds</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What occurs when ESA balances are traded in exchange for government bonds?

    <p>The supply of ESA balances increases or decreases.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the primary effect of lending ESA balances collateralized by government bonds?

    <p>Temporarily increase supply</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How are short-term and long-term interest rates connected?

    <p>By arbitrage opportunities within a class of safe assets</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following concepts does NOT relate to monetary policy transmission?

    <p>The velocity of money in a closed economy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement best represents the concept of money neutrality?

    <p>In the long run, changes in money supply do not affect real variables</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a key transmission link for monetary policy to affect households and firms?

    <p>Rolling over short-term positions to create a long-term position</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which factor is NOT considered when evaluating rates on riskier assets?

    <p>Government intervention in financial markets</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the acronym ESA refer to in the context of monetary policy implementation in Australia?

    <p>Exchange Settlement Account</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What challenge in monetary policy might be addressed in the next lecture?

    <p>Challenges related to pandemic responses</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Attempts to decrease actual unemployment below the natural rate will always lower inflation.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the long run, monetary stimulus is neutral for real GDP.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary neutrality indicates that changes in money supply do not affect relative prices.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The velocity of money increases as the money supply decreases while keeping transactions constant.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Increasing the money supply will result in permanent increases in living standards.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The primary goal of monetary policy usually includes achieving financial instability.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Reserve Bank of Australia has been using an inflation target of 3-4 percent on average over time since the early 1990s.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary policy in Australia aims to maintain unemployment at the natural rate.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An explicit inflation target contributes to transparency and accountability in monetary policy.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Low and stable inflation is operationalized as an explicit inflation target by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Natural Rate Hypothesis suggests that attempts to lower actual unemployment below the natural rate can have harmful long-term effects.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The monetary authority uses exchange rates as a tool to influence monetary policy.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Reserve Bank Act of 1959 establishes the goal of achieving maximum price volatility in Australia.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary policy is effective in changing long run supply-side trends in economic activity.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Fiscal policy is generally slower in implementation compared to monetary policy.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) are used to manage daily transactions similar to cash.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Reserve Bank of Australia's corridor system has a ceiling that is 50 basis points above the target cash rate.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The net demand for ESA balances comes solely from banks without any customer involvement.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Open market operations involve trading ESA balances for corporate bonds.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The cash rate managed by the RBA is influenced by the supply and demand for ESA balances.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Shortfalls in ESA balances by settlement time require banks to pay penalties to the RBA.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Long-run monetary neutrality implies that potential output is dependent on the money supply.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The growth rate of velocity ($gV̄$) is assumed to be zero in the quantity theory of money.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If potential output grows at $gY⋆ = 0.02$ and the money supply grows at $gM = 0.06$, long-run inflation ($π$) can be calculated as $0.04$.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The quantity theory of money posits that monetary policy has no effect on output in the short run.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Central banks control a broad measure of money supply, which includes both cash and bank reserves.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Short-run non-neutrality of monetary policy leads to changes in cyclical unemployment.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The formula for long-run inflation from the quantity theory includes the growth rates of money supply and output.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Changes in velocity due to technological advancements contradict the assumption of constant velocity in the quantity theory.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The supply of ESA balances is permanently increased when government bonds are lent out.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Movements in short-term interest rates do not affect long-term interest rates.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The relationship between overnight cash rates and longer-term interest rates is insignificant in monetary policy.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Safe assets can include bonds with fixed risk characteristics.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Riskier assets have interest rates that can be considered as a risk premium on top of safe asset rates.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Quantity theory of money states that the growth in money supply directly causes inflation in the long run.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The velocity of money formula is represented as $V = \frac{M}{PY}$.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary policy transmission can break down at various points in the transmission chain.

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is meant by the term 'monetary neutrality' in the context of monetary policy?

    <p>Monetary neutrality refers to the idea that changes in the money supply do not affect real variables like real GDP and employment in the long run.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the velocity of money relate to the Quantity Theory of Money?

    <p>The velocity of money is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to the money supply, indicating how quickly money circulates in the economy.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Explain the impact of monetary stimulus on actual unemployment according to the natural rate hypothesis.

    <p>According to the natural rate hypothesis, attempts to reduce actual unemployment below the natural rate will not be successful in the long run and will primarily result in increased inflation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What critical distinction does the natural rate hypothesis make regarding short-run versus long-run effects of monetary policy?

    <p>The natural rate hypothesis posits that while monetary policy can reduce unemployment in the short run, it ultimately leads to higher inflation without achieving lasting improvements in employment levels.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the implications of the Quantity Theory of Money for long-run inflation predictions?

    <p>The Quantity Theory of Money implies that in the long run, changes in the money supply lead to proportional changes in price levels, which can be used to predict long-run inflation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Explain the relationship between long-run monetary neutrality and potential output.

    <p>Long-run monetary neutrality suggests that changes in the money supply do not affect potential output, which remains stable at $Y_t^*$.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is the assumption of constant velocity considered problematic in the quantity theory of money?

    <p>The assumption of constant velocity is problematic because it fails to account for changes over time due to technological advancements and shifts in payment methods.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the quantity theory, how is long-run inflation calculated?

    <p>Long-run inflation is calculated as $\pi = g_M - gY^<em>$, where $g_M$ is the growth rate of the money supply and $gY^</em>$ is the growth rate of potential output.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the quantity theory imply about the role of central banks in controlling inflation?

    <p>The quantity theory implies that central banks can control long-run inflation by managing the growth rate of the money supply, $g_M$.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Identify a key criticism of using the quantity theory of money for short-term inflation predictions.

    <p>A key criticism is that the quantity theory does not accurately predict short-run inflation changes based on short-run variations in the money supply.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Discuss how central banks can address the issue of monetary policy non-neutrality in the short run.

    <p>Central banks can utilize targeted monetary policy tools to stabilize output gaps and manage cyclical unemployment in the short run.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are some of the implications of abandoning money growth targeting for central banks?

    <p>Abandoning money growth targeting allows central banks to adopt more flexible monetary policies that can address real-time economic conditions and foster stability.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Define the growth rate of potential output and its significance in the inflation equation.

    <p>The growth rate of potential output, $gY^*$, measures the economy's capacity to grow without leading to inflation, and is essential in the long-run inflation equation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the three underlying goals of monetary policy as interpreted by the Reserve Bank of Australia?

    <p>The goals are low and stable inflation, unemployment at the natural rate, and a broadly stable macroeconomic environment.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is an explicit inflation target beneficial for monetary policy?

    <p>An explicit inflation target provides transparency and accountability, ensuring that monetary policy success or failure can be evaluated against a clear criterion.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'natural rate' imply in the context of full employment?

    <p>The 'natural rate' implies that full employment is maintained when unemployment is at a level that does not accelerate inflation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Describe the main reason for establishing an inflation target by the RBA.

    <p>The main reason is to maintain low average inflation that does not distort economic decisions for individuals and businesses.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role does the monetary policy transmission mechanism play in an economy?

    <p>The monetary policy transmission mechanism links the central bank's monetary policy decisions to real economic activity, affecting households and firms.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target reflect on its monetary policy decisions?

    <p>The RBA’s inflation target, set at 2-3 percent, influences its policy decisions to ensure price stability over time.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one of the economic reasons for maintaining low and stable inflation?

    <p>Low and stable inflation helps to prevent significant distortions in decision-making by consumers and businesses.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the significance of monetary policy's role in achieving financial stability?

    <p>Monetary policy contributes to financial stability by managing inflation and mitigating risks in the financial system.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does monetary policy primarily differ from fiscal policy regarding its responsiveness to economic fluctuations?

    <p>Monetary policy is more nimble, allowing changes to interest rates overnight, while fiscal policy is more powerful but takes longer to implement.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the importance of maintaining cash rate targets by the Reserve Bank of Australia?

    <p>Maintaining cash rate targets helps manage liquidity in the banking system and influences overall economic activity and inflation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens to ESA balances that are not in credit by the day’s end?

    <p>Shortfalls in ESA balances require banks to borrow funds from the overnight cash market to settle payment obligations.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Describe how the RBA uses a corridor system to manage the cash rate.

    <p>The RBA sets a cash rate corridor with a floor and ceiling to provide incentives for banks to lend and borrow ESA balances near the target rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the role of open market operations in controlling the supply of ESA balances?

    <p>Open market operations involve the outright buying or selling of government bonds to affect the net supply of ESA balances.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In what way can monetary policy help manage short-term economic fluctuations?

    <p>Monetary policy can stimulate consumption and investment demand by cutting interest rates when there is a shortfall in demand.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the RBA forecast daily demand for ESA balances?

    <p>The RBA forecasts daily demand for ESA balances based on net demand from banks and other customer transactions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are the implications of the RBA's ability to take and supply ESA balances at the floor and ceiling rates?

    <p>This ability allows the RBA to influence the cash rate effectively, ensuring it remains close to the target set by the Bank.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does the borrowing and lending of ESA balances using government bonds affect the supply in the short term?

    <p>It temporarily increases the supply when ESA balances are lent, and decreases it when the bonds are returned and ESA balances are reclaimed.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Explain how short-term interest rates are connected to long-term interest rates.

    <p>Short-term and long-term interest rates are linked through arbitrage opportunities within the class of safe assets like government bonds.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the relationship between the overnight cash rate and riskier assets?

    <p>The overnight cash rate influences long-term safe rates, which subsequently affects rates on riskier assets including mortgage rates.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the quantity theory of money, what role does the velocity of money play?

    <p>The velocity of money reflects how quickly money circulates in the economy and impacts overall economic activity and inflation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) facilitate monetary policy implementation in Australia?

    <p>ESAs allow banks to settle interbank transactions and manage liquidity in accordance with the Reserve Bank's monetary policy objectives.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the term 'money neutrality' imply in the framework of monetary policy?

    <p>Money neutrality suggests that changes in the money supply do not affect real economic variables in the long run but can have short-term effects.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a primary aim of maintaining low average levels of inflation in Australia?

    <p>The aim is to promote economic stability and confidence in the currency, benefiting households and businesses.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do monetary policy tools affect the potential output of an economy?

    <p>Monetary policy tools primarily aim to influence aggregate demand, which can affect economic output levels in the short run.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The theory known as the natural rate hypothesis was developed by Friedman and _____ in 1968.

    <p>Phelps</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the short run, monetary stimulus is considered _____, leading to increases in inflation and nominal GDP.

    <p>non-neutral</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The velocity of money is defined as _____ divided by the money supply.

    <p>nominal GDP</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Attempts to keep actual unemployment far below the natural rate can lead to increased _____ without a sustained reduction in unemployment.

    <p>inflation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The term 'neutrality' indicates that changes in the money supply do not affect _____ prices if all prices rise proportionately.

    <p>relative</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The primary goal of monetary policy in most countries includes price stability, full employment, and financial __________.

    <p>stability</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aims for an inflation rate of __________ percent on average over time.

    <p>2-3</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The 'Natural Rate Hypothesis' interprets full employment as being equivalent to unemployment at the __________ rate.

    <p>natural</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Economic transparency and accountability in monetary policy provide a criterion against which to evaluate policy __________ or failure.

    <p>success</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The goals set forth in the Reserve Bank Act of 1959 include the stability of the currency and maintenance of full __________.

    <p>employment</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Low average levels of inflation are aimed at not significantly distorting economic __________.

    <p>decisions</p> Signup and view all the answers

    One of the monetary authority's instruments includes changes to short-term nominal __________ rates.

    <p>interest</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The 'quantity theory of money' addresses the relationship between the money supply and __________ in the long run.

    <p>inflation</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary policy is useful in managing short run demand-driven cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, particularly when there is a shortfall in ______.

    <p>demand</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The RBA targets the ______ rate, which is the interest rate in overnight unsecured interbank loans.

    <p>cash</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Both monetary and fiscal policy can be used to manage ______.

    <p>demand</p> Signup and view all the answers

    ESAs are used to manage daily transactions, essentially like ______.

    <p>cash</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The net supply of ESA balances is controlled through open market operations, where ESA balances are traded in exchange for government ______.

    <p>bonds</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Actual cash rate is managed by a ______ system, which includes a floor and a ceiling.

    <p>corridor</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When ESA balances are not in credit by the end of the day, shortfalls require funds borrowed from the ______ cash market.

    <p>overnight</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Fiscally, the policy is more powerful but generally slower, especially in times of deep ______.

    <p>recessions</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The long-run price level can be expressed as Pt⋆ = Mt V̄ / Yt⋆, where Yt⋆ represents the long-run potential output and Mt represents the money ______.

    <p>supply</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the Quantity Theory of Money, long-run inflation can be calculated using the formula π = gM − gY⋆, where gM represents the growth rate of the money supply and gY⋆ is the growth rate of potential ______.

    <p>output</p> Signup and view all the answers

    One of the assumptions of the Quantity Theory is that velocity (Vt) is ______, meaning it does not change over time.

    <p>constant</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Central banks control a narrow measure of the money supply primarily through cash and bank ______.

    <p>reserves</p> Signup and view all the answers

    If potential output grows at gY⋆ = 0.02 and the money supply grows at gM = 0.06, the predicted long-run inflation is π = ______.

    <p>0.04</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Long-run monetary neutrality implies that we should not expect monetary policy to affect real GDP at potential Yt⋆ or the natural rate of ______.

    <p>unemployment</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Some difficulties with the Quantity Theory of Money stem from the fact that monetary policy can influence output in the ______ run.

    <p>short</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are highly controversial, making it one of the most ______ topics in macroeconomics.

    <p>controversial</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Movements in short-term rates transmit to ______ rates.

    <p>long-term</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Rates on riskier assets include a ______ premium on top of the safe asset rate.

    <p>risk</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Monetary policy transmits to long-term risky assets, such as ______ rates.

    <p>mortgage</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Money neutrality suggests that changes in the money supply do not affect ______ prices.

    <p>relative</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The Reserve Bank of Australia uses ______ as a tool to manage its monetary policy.

    <p>cash rates</p> Signup and view all the answers

    To control the net supply of ESA balances, the RBA uses the ______ system.

    <p>corridor</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In response to a decrease in supply, ESA balances can be ______ for government bonds.

    <p>traded</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The ______ theory of money evaluates the long-term relationship between money supply and economic output.

    <p>quantity</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Basic Monetary Policy Concepts

    • Monetary policy involves decisions by a central bank to change monetary instruments, such as short-term interest rates, money supply, and exchange rates.
    • Common goals of monetary policy include achieving price stability (low and stable inflation), full employment (natural rate of unemployment), and financial stability.

    Monetary Policy in Australia

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central bank.
    • The RBA Act 1959 sets out the legislative objectives of monetary policy, including ensuring stability of the currency, maintaining full employment, and contributing to economic prosperity.
    • Current interpretations of these objectives include:
      • Maintaining low and stable inflation.
      • Keeping unemployment at the natural rate.
      • Ensuring a broadly stable macro environment, including financial stability.

    Inflation Target

    • Since the early 1990s, Australia has adopted an explicit inflation target of 2-3% on average over time.
    • This target provides transparency and accountability for monetary policy.

    Natural Rate Hypothesis

    • The natural rate hypothesis suggests that pushing unemployment below the natural rate leads to increased inflation without further reductions in unemployment.
    • Monetary stimulus is non-neutral in the short run but neutral in the long run.

    Quantity Theory of Money

    • This theory assumes that money velocity is constant, the money supply (M) is controlled by the central bank, and there is long-run monetary neutrality.
    • In the long run, inflation (π) is determined by the difference between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of potential output: π = gM - gY⋆.

    Monetary Policy in the Short Run

    • Monetary policy can be used to manage short-run demand-driven cyclical fluctuations in economic activity.
    • Both monetary and fiscal policy can influence demand, with monetary policy being more nimble and fiscal policy more powerful.

    Money Demand and Supply in Australia

    • The RBA uses Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) to manage daily transactions.
    • Shortfalls in ESA balances require overnight borrowing in the overnight cash market.
    • The RBA targets the cash rate, the interest rate in overnight unsecured interbank loans.

    Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

    • Changes in short-term interest rates influence long-term interest rates through arbitrage opportunities.
    • Rates on riskier assets are linked to safe asset rates plus a risk premium.
    • Monetary policy impacts the most important rates facing households and firms.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Gain an understanding of monetary policy concepts, including its goals and current interpretation.
    • Comprehend the concept of money neutrality and its implications in the short and long run.
    • Evaluate the quantity theory of money.
    • Understand the implementation of monetary policy in Australia, including ESAs and the corridor system.
    • Explain the relationship between the overnight cash rate and other interest rates.

    Basic Monetary Policy Concepts

    • Monetary policy refers to central bank decisions influencing monetary instruments like short-term interest rates, money supply, and exchange rates.
    • Most countries aim for price stability, full employment, and financial stability through monetary policy.

    Monetary Policy in Australia

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central bank, responsible for monetary policy.
    • The Reserve Bank Act 1959 sets out legislative objectives for monetary policy: stability of the currency, maintenance of full employment, and economic prosperity for Australians.
    • These objectives are interpreted as low and stable inflation, unemployment at the natural rate, and a broadly stable macro environment.

    Inflation Target

    • Since the early 1990s, the RBA has adopted an explicit inflation target of 2-3% on average over time.
    • This aims to keep inflation low and stable, allowing for temporary deviations in response to unusual shocks.

    Reasons for Inflation Target

    • Economic reasons: low average inflation minimizes distortions to decision-making, provides an 'anchor' for inflation expectations.
    • Institutional reasons: promotes transparency and accountability, provides a benchmark for evaluating monetary policy success.

    Natural Rate Hypothesis

    • The natural rate hypothesis suggests that pushing unemployment below the natural rate (u*) leads to inflation, not further reductions in unemployment.
    • This threatens price stability without delivering sustained unemployment reductions.

    Monetary Neutrality & Non-Neutrality

    • Monetary stimulus is non-neutral in the short run, impacting real variables like GDP and interest rates.
    • However, it is neutral in the long run, affecting only nominal GDP and inflation while leaving real GDP unchanged.

    Quantity Theory of Money

    • The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between money supply, price level, and real output in the long run.
    • It assumes long-run monetary neutrality, constant velocity of money, and central bank control over the money supply.

    Long Run Inflation

    • The quantity theory predicts that long-run inflation is determined by the difference between money supply growth and real output growth.

    Difficulties with the Quantity Theory

    • Monetary policy influences short-run output, so the quantity theory shouldn't be used to predict short-run inflation changes based on money supply changes.
    • Velocity varies over time influenced by technology, making it difficult to assume constant velocity.
    • Central banks control a narrow measure of money supply (cash and reserves), not the broad measure used in the quantity theory.

    Monetary Policy in the Short Run

    • Monetary policy influences the output gap and cyclical unemployment in the short run.
    • It can be effectively used to manage demand-driven economic fluctuations.

    Money Demand & Supply in Australia

    • Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) are used for daily transactions.
    • Banks settle payments through ESAs, with shortfalls borrowed from the overnight cash market.

    Monetary Policy in Australia-Cash Rate

    • The RBA targets the cash rate, the overnight interest rate on unsecured interbank lending.
    • The corridor system, with floor and ceiling rates, incentivizes banks to keep cash rates within the target range.

    Monetary Policy Transmission

    • Changes in short-term rates affect long-term rates through arbitrage opportunities.
    • Long-term safe rates influence long-term riskier asset rates, including mortgage rates.

    Learning Outcomes

    • Understand the goals of monetary policy and its interpretation.
    • Differentiate between the short-run and long-run impacts of monetary policy and the concept of money neutrality.
    • Analyze and critique the Quantity Theory of Money.
    • Comprehend the implementation of monetary policy in Australia, including the use of ESAs and the corridor system.
    • Connect the overnight cash rate to other interest rates and explain the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

    Basic Monetary Policy Concepts

    • The central bank (monetary authority) makes decisions about monetary instruments.
    • Typical monetary instruments include: short-term nominal interest rates, narrow measures of the money supply, and exchange rates.
    • The primary goals of monetary policy are: price stability, full employment, and financial stability.

    Monetary Policy in Australia

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central bank.
    • The main goals of monetary policy are set by the Reserve Bank Act 1959: stability of currency, maintenance of full employment, and economic prosperity.
    • Current interpretations of these goals are: low and stable inflation, unemployment at the natural rate, and a stable macroeconomic environment, including financial stability.

    Inflation Target

    • Australia has had an explicit inflation target since the early 1990s.
    • The target inflation rate is ‘2-3 percent on average over time’.
    • The target allows for temporary fluctuations above and below the target range.

    Reasons for Inflation Target

    • The purpose of an inflation target is to ensure that inflation is low enough to not significantly distort economic decisions.
    • The target provides an ‘anchor’ for inflation expectations.
    • The target promotes transparency and accountability.

    Natural Rate Hypothesis

    • The natural rate of unemployment, also known as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), is the level of unemployment when the economy is producing at its potential output.
    • The natural rate of unemployment is the theoretical point where the economy should be operating in the long run.
    • Monetary policy is not expected to permanently reduce the natural rate of unemployment.

    Monetary Neutrality and Non-Neutrality

    • Monetary policy is non-neutral (impacts real variables) in the short run but neutral (does not impact real variables) in the long run.
    • Short-run non-neutrality implies that monetary policy can impact real GDP, real interest rates, and real wages.
    • Long-run neutrality means that in the long run, the only impact of monetary policy on the real economy is to increase prices.

    Quantity Theory of Money

    • The quantity theory of money explains long-run monetary neutrality.
    • The theory assumes: long-run monetary neutrality, constant velocity, and control of the money supply by the central bank.
    • The theory states that the price level is determined by the money supply, velocity, and potential output of the economy.

    Long-Run Inflation

    • In the long run, inflation is equal to the growth rate of the money supply minus the growth rate of potential output.
    • Monetary authorities can control inflation in the long run by influencing money supply growth.

    Difficulties with the Quantity Theory of Money

    • The quantity theory of money does not explain the short-run effects of monetary policy.
    • The assumptions of constant velocity of money and control of the money supply by the central bank are not always met.

    Monetary Policy and Demand Management

    • Monetary policy can be used to manage short-run demand-driven fluctuations in economic activity.
    • Monetary policy can stimulate demand, but it cannot change the long-run trend in economic activity.
    • Monetary policy has a faster response time than fiscal policy.

    Money Demand and Supply in Australia

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) targets the cash rate, the interest rate on overnight unsecured loans between banks.

    Monetary Policy in Australia: Corridor System

    • The RBA uses a ‘corridor system’ to manage the cash rate.
    • The system has a floor and a ceiling to encourage banks to lend and borrow ESA balances to stay within the target range.
    • Outside the corridor, the RBA takes (demands) ESA balances at the floor rate and supplies ESA balances at the ceiling rate to influence the cash rate.

    Monetary Policy Transmission

    • Changes in the cash rate affect long-term interest rates through arbitrage opportunities.
    • Movements in safe asset interest rates also affect riskier assets through risk premiums.
    • Monetary policy affects all interest rates, including long-term and risky rates, impacting the economy as a whole.

    Basic Monetary Policy Concepts

    • Monetary policy refers to actions taken by central banks to influence monetary conditions, primarily through managing interest rates, money supply, and exchange rates.
    • In most countries, the primary goals of monetary policy include price stability, full employment, and financial stability.

    Monetary Policy in Australia

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Australia's central bank, responsible for carrying out monetary policy.
    • The RBA's legislative objectives, as outlined in the Reserve Bank Act 1959, are:
      • Stability of the currency (purchasing power).
      • Maintenance of full employment.
      • Economic prosperity and welfare of Australians.
    • Current interpretations of these objectives translate to:
      • Low and stable inflation.
      • Unemployment at the natural rate.
      • Overall macroeconomic stability, including financial stability.

    Inflation Target

    • Since the early 1990s, Australia has implemented an explicit inflation target as a key component of its monetary policy framework.
    • The Statement on Conduct of Monetary Policy, a joint agreement between the Treasurer and the RBA Governor, outlines the inflation target as "an inflation rate of 2-3 percent on average over time."
    • The target allows for temporary deviations from the 2-3% range to address unusual economic shocks.

    Reasons for Inflation Target

    • Economic Reasons:
      • Maintaining low average inflation helps minimize distortions to economic decisions.
      • The target serves as an "anchor" for inflation expectations, influencing economic behavior.
    • Institutional Reasons:
      • Promotes transparency and accountability in monetary policy.
      • Provides a clear criterion for evaluating the success or failure of monetary policy decisions.

    Natural Rate Hypothesis

    • The natural rate hypothesis, a central concept in macroeconomics, states that pushing unemployment below its natural rate (u⋆t) will only result in increased inflation without a sustained decrease in unemployment.
    • Efforts to reduce unemployment below the natural rate through monetary policy can create inflationary pressures, jeopardizing price stability.

    Monetary Neutrality and Non-Neutrality

    • Monetary neutrality refers to the idea that changes in the money supply have no effect on real variables, such as output, real interest rates, and real wages, in the long run.
    • While monetary stimulus can temporarily boost output and inflation in the short run, its long-run effects are limited to inflation, with no lasting impact on real variables.

    Quantity Theory of Money

    • This theory describes the long-run relationship between money supply, price level, and real output.
    • It posits that changes in the money supply directly translate into proportional changes in the price level in the long run, assuming constant velocity of money and a fixed level of potential output.

    Long-Run Inflation

    • The quantity theory suggests that long-run inflation (π) is equal to the difference between the growth rate of the money supply (gM) and the growth rate of potential output (gY⋆).
    • Central banks can control long-run inflation through managing the growth rate of the money supply.

    Difficulties with Quantity Theory

    • The theory's applicability is limited to long-run scenarios, as it fails to account for the short-term non-neutrality of monetary policy.
    • Velocity of money is not constant and can fluctuate due to technological advancements and other factors, impacting the accuracy of the theory's predictions.
    • Central banks control only narrow measures of money supply (cash and bank reserves) rather than the broad measure used in the quantity theory, further limiting its direct applicability.

    Monetary Policy and Demand Management

    • While monetary policy cannot permanently alter the long-run supply-side trends in economic activity, it can be used to manage short-run demand-driven fluctuations in economic activity.
    • By adjusting interest rates, monetary policy can stimulate consumption and investment demand during periods of weak economic activity.

    Money Demand and Supply in Australia

    • Exchange Settlement Accounts (ESAs) are used by banks and financial institutions to manage daily transactions and settle payment obligations.
    • Banks maintain ESA balances at the RBA, with an end-of-day settlement requirement. Shortfalls in balances necessitate borrowing from the overnight cash market.

    Monetary Policy Implementation in Australia

    • The RBA targets the cash rate, the interest rate in the overnight (unsecured) interbank lending market, through a corridor system.
    • The corridor system comprises a floor and a ceiling for the cash rate, incentivizing banks to move their ESA balances within the corridor.
    • The RBA intervenes in the market by taking ESA balances at the floor rate or supplying them at the ceiling rate to influence the cash rate.

    Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

    • Movements in short-term rates transmit to long-term rates through arbitrage opportunities.
    • Riskier assets tend to have their interest rates determined by adding a risk premium to the rate on safe assets.
    • Changes in the short-term cash rate influence longer-term safe rates, impacting longer-term risky rates, such as mortgage rates.

    Unconventional Monetary Policy

    • Non-standard monetary policy tools, such as quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rates, are used to stimulate economic activity during periods of low interest rates and weak economic conditions.
    • QE involves central bank purchases of long-term assets, such as government bonds, to increase liquidity and lower long-term interest rates.
    • Negative interest rates are applied to bank reserves held at central banks, intended to incentivize banks to lend rather than hold reserves.

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    Introductory Macroeconomics Lecture 9: Monetary Policy I PDF

    Description

    This quiz covers key concepts of monetary policy, particularly focusing on the objectives set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. It explores the legislative framework, the importance of price stability, full employment, and the inflation target established in Australia. Test your knowledge on how these principles apply in a modern economic context.

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