Personal Career and Financial Security Ch 8

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Questions and Answers

What is one major flaw in the prestige model described?

  • It is based entirely on historical opinions.
  • It relies solely on data gathered over time.
  • It does not allow for any hypothesis testing.
  • Even intelligent individuals can make honest mistakes. (correct)

Which step is NOT part of the six-step procedure in model selection?

  • Analyze social media reactions. (correct)
  • Gather evidence.
  • Hypothesize about its meaning.
  • Test the hypothesis.

What mathematical concept is addressed concerning the majority's beliefs on complex subjects?

  • Understanding is limited to simple knowledge.
  • The majority can accurately solve complex issues.
  • The majority is always wrong.
  • The majority's opinions are often based on luck. (correct)

What is the implication of believing in scientific 'facts' according to the content?

<p>They tend to be updated with newer models and equipment. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which aspect of the scientific method allows for continual improvement of understanding?

<p>Encouraging others to replicate results. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated as a trap stemming from human imperfection?

<p>Certainty. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of relying on specialist knowledge according to the content?

<p>It limits the ability to understand complex issues. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens when there is no existing model for incoming data?

<p>A new model is built or an existing one is searched for. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential downside of relying on prestigious experts for model selection?

<p>They may be biased towards widely accepted but incorrect models. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was Galileo's significant contribution to astronomy?

<p>He confirmed the sun is at the center of the solar system. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term geocentric refer to?

<p>Belief in the earth being the center of the solar system. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the model that flips a coin represent in the context of selecting models?

<p>A low-effort strategy that yields random outcomes. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is Galileo's case considered a significant incident in the history of science?

<p>He provided evidence contradicting established beliefs about the solar system. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What might individuals relying on popular theories fail to do, as demonstrated by Galileo's experience?

<p>Seek new evidence that contradicts their beliefs. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does selecting a model based on prestige imply in practice?

<p>It may lead to adherence to outdated or incorrect models. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Model Selection

The process of evaluating and choosing the best model to explain a phenomenon.

Geocentric Model

A model that assumes the Earth is the center of the solar system.

Heliocentric Model

A model that assumes the Sun is the center of the solar system.

Prestige Model

A model that relies on the opinions or authority of respected figures in a field.

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Confirmation Bias

The tendency to favor existing models, even if they are incorrect, due to investment of time, energy, and ego.

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Galileo Galilei

The astronomer who challenged the geocentric model, leading to a revolution in astronomy.

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Muzzle

The act of suppressing or silencing someone who challenges accepted beliefs.

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Open-mindedness

The importance of maintaining an open mind and questioning established theories.

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Prestige Model Flaw

The idea that relying solely on the opinions of prestigious figures can lead to incorrect beliefs, especially when dealing with complex subjects. Even highly intelligent individuals are prone to making mistakes.

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Independent Model Creation

Gathering data and analyzing it to form a model of how something works. Involves starting from scratch and collecting evidence.

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Majority Wrong Principle

The tendency for majority opinion to be incorrect on complex issues, as the majority may lack the specialized knowledge required for accurate understanding.

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Scientific Method

A methodical approach to investigating phenomena that involves observation, hypothesis formation, testing, and validation by multiple individuals.

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Working Hypothesis

The acceptance of hypotheses as facts until proven otherwise, acknowledging their potential flaws and incompleteness.

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Scientific Fact Impermanence

The concept that even seemingly established 'facts' may be proven wrong with the advancement of knowledge and technology. Scientific knowledge is constantly evolving.

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Open-Mindedness vs Certainty

Embracing an open-minded perspective and avoiding absolute certainty in one's beliefs, acknowledging the limitations of human understanding.

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Study Notes

Selecting Models

  • Models are used to interpret data. If no existing model fits, a new one is created or an existing one is adapted.

Evaluating Models

  • Methods for choosing models vary. One crude method is a coin flip (e.g., geocentric or heliocentric solar system models). It's only 50% accurate.

    • Geocentric model: Earth is the center of the solar system.
    • Heliocentric model: Sun is the center of the solar system.

  • Consulting prestigious figures (e.g., a baseball player for an astronomy query) might work but is problematic.

    • Experts often have entrenched positions based on accepted models (even wrong ones).
    • The significant Galileo case demonstrates entrenched opposition to new models despite evidence.
      • Galileo's data showed the heliocentric model is correct.
      • His findings contradicted geocentric views, prompting punishment.

  • Personal research (gathering data to create a model) is time-intensive and uncertain.

    • Historical astronomers had substantial data supporting geocentric views.
    • The individual researcher cannot be sure if their model reflects reality.

  • Majority opinion is not a reliable guide for complex subjects.

  • Simple information (e.g., weather, time, sports results) exceptions.

  • Complex subjects are beyond most individuals' expertise.

    • A correct/appropriate outcome for a complex subject by majority is a matter of luck.

Scientific Method

  • A six-step procedure for selecting models:

    1. Gather evidence.
    2. Examine evidence.
    3. Hypothesize (educated guess).
    4. Test the hypothesis.
    5. Replicate the test with others.
    6. Acceptance of hypothesis as fact/working hypothesis.

  • This process is called the scientific method, which has limitations and is not flawless.

  • Scientists frequently use "working hypotheses" (useful but possibly flawed ideas).

  • Only proven wrong ideas are considered absolute facts in science (e.g., the geocentric model is wrong).

  • Personal view: No absolute facts, only working hypotheses. Open-mindedness and admitting imperfections are preferable to certainty.

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