Measuring Market Risk and Beta

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Questions and Answers

Why should a market portfolio theoretically include all assets in the world economy?

  • To minimize transaction costs associated with stock trading.
  • To achieve the greatest possible diversification. (correct)
  • To comply with regulatory standards for fund management.
  • To exclusively focus on stocks with high growth potential.

What differentiates the risk assessment of an individual stock in a diversified portfolio from its stand-alone risk?

  • Portfolio risk assessment disregards the stock's price volatility.
  • Risk assessment in a portfolio considers the stock's exposure to macroeconomic events. (correct)
  • Stand-alone risk focuses on market-wide economic factors.
  • Stand-alone risk is measured by beta.

If a stock decreases a portfolio's exposure to macroeconomic risks, how would you classify that stock?

  • Aggressive
  • Defensive (correct)
  • Speculative
  • Cyclical

How do fluctuations in stock returns caused by market risk differ from those caused by unique risk?

<p>Market risk reflects systematic factors, while unique risk reflects firm-specific factors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated by a stock beta of 1.0?

<p>The stock's returns vary one-for-one with market returns. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What investment strategy aligns with an investor seeking to minimize exposure to market declines?

<p>Investing in defensive stocks. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is diversification unable to eliminate market risk?

<p>Market risk impacts all stocks, irrespective of diversification. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Company X's stock beta is 1.5. If the market rises by 1%, what change can be expected in the stock price of Company X?

<p>Increase of 1.5% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What information is conveyed by the slope of the fitted line in a plot of a stock's return versus market returns?

<p>The stock's beta. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statistical measure is used to quantify the degree to which two random variables change together?

<p>Correlation coefficient (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is covariance used in the calculation of beta?

<p>Beta equals the covariance of the stock's return and market return, divided by the market return's variance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What range of historical data is considered reliable for estimating standard deviation and beta?

<p>5 years of monthly data (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Iamgold had one of the highest standard deviations, and Telus stock had the lowest. If you had held Iamgold stock on its own, your returns would have varied how much more than if you had held Telus stock?

<p>Three times as much (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is unique risk, in the context of stock returns?

<p>The part of the return due to news that is specific to the firm. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is the formula for calculating the beta of a stock?

<p>$β_s = \frac{ρ_{sm} σ_s}{σ_m}$ (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methods can be used to calculate a stock's beta?

<p>All of the above (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Considering the betas of Canadian stocks, what can be generalized about Suncor and Telus?

<p>Suncor is a higher beta stock, with Telus is a lower beta stock. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does it mean if a stock's returns are not perfectly related to market returns?

<p>The company returns were also subject to unique risk. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does diversification of a portfolio have on unique and market risk?

<p>Decreases unique risk but does not reduce market risk (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given stocks A and B both exist in a portfolio, if stock A has a higher beta than Stock B, how are they different?

<p>Stock A contributes more market risk than stock B. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected beta of a diversified portfolio that includes all stocks in the market?

<p>A value of 1.0 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A mutual fund manager claims to have "beat the market" based on their performance in one year, what calculation might you use to determine if their claim is valid?

<p>Compare the fund's beta and risk-adjusted returns to a similar index fund. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What statistical parameters have to be known to determine the riskiness of a security relative to the market?

<p>Beta (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the market risk premium (MRP) in evaluating investments, according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)?

<p>MRP is added to the risk-free rate to decide the return an investor requires. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What return has been the average Canadian Market Risk Premium?

<p>Over the past 50 years, the risk premium has averaged about 4.4 percent a year. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is the yield on Treasury bills a key component of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)?

<p>It serves as the baseline risk-free rate of return. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) boil down to?

<p>r = rf + B(rm -rf) (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is the most accurate definition of capital asset pricing model (CAPM)?

<p>CAPM models the tradeoff between the time value of money and the return that should be on any investment. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the security market line illustrate, according to the CAPM?

<p>The expected rates of return for all securities and all portfolios. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why does the CAPM model make sense?

<p>Because returns are based on capital's risk, so it only makes sense to take on beta. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do macroeconomic events typically influence individual companies and stock returns?

<p>They impact almost all companies and the returns on almost all stocks. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the defining characteristic of 'unique risks' associated with a company?

<p>They are easily diversified away in a portfolio. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a stock is considered 'aggressive', what does that imply about its reaction to market movements?

<p>Its returns tend to respond more than one-for-one to changes in the overall market. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the key element used to measure the risk of an individual stock?

<p>Beta. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When analyzing a stock's returns, how is the stock's beta represented graphically?

<p>As the slope of the fitted line in a plot of stock returns versus market returns. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the final step in calculating a stock's beta?

<p>Take the slope of the fitted line. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor distinguishes the risk assessment of individual stocks within a diversified portfolio?

<p>exposure to macroeconomic events. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the two parts that common stock returns can be broken down into?

<p>Part explained by market returns and the firm's beta, and the part due to news that is specific to the firm. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Aside from Excel, what is another method to calculate beta from knowing the standard deviations of the stock and market returns?

<p>Multiply the correlation coefficient times the the stock's standard deviation, divided by the market's standard deviation. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these statements are true?

<p>Most estimates of standard deviation and beta use five years of monthly data. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What can you compute with the stock beta combined with variance-covariance information?

<p>covariance between stocks returns and market returns divided by variance of the market returns. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

As a rule of thumb, should investors put all their eggs in one basket?

<p>Diversification reduces risk of the entire portfolio. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

For a stock trading in United States, where can you find beta?

<p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com">https://finance.yahoo.com</a> (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does diversification impact the variability of a portfolio?

<p>Diversification decreases variability from unique risk but not from market risk. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the definition of a portfolio Beta?

<p>weighted average of the betas of the securities in the portfolio. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the risk (standard deviation) of the market relate to that of a fully diversified portfolio?

<p>The standard deviation of the portfolio depends on the beta of the portfolio: if the beta is .5, the standard deviation is approximately half that of the market. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the approximate Beta of a fully diversified portfolio including all stocks?

<p>Approximately 1.0 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the book say is child's play in a bull market?

<p>Trying to ‘beat the market’ with a high-beta portfolio. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the names of the two funds discussed?

<p>Newgrowth Corporation mutual fund and iShares S&amp;P/TSX Capped Composite Index fund (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

For the two funds, what was the approximate beta?

<p>0.99 and 0.739 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the CAPM, what is the expected rate of return on an asset with a beta of 1.0?

<p>The expected market return. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the CAPM formula, what two things does the expected rate of return depend on for investors?

<p>compensation for the time value of money and a risk premium. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the formula, what does the market risk premium depend on?

<p>beta and the market risk premium (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the capital asset pricing model boil down to?

<p>the risk-free interest rate plus the risk premium. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If securities are properly priced and investors expected return is .739, what value is equal?

<p>The return they require. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the security market line illustrate?

<p>how expected rate of return depends on beta. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When using company cost of capital to estimate, what should you do if the new projects do not have the same risk as existing business?

<p>Take care when the firm has issued securities other than equity. This approach can get a firm in trouble if its new projects do not have the same risk as its existing business. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

From Suncor's point of view, should they venture into a tech company using its current average costs of capital?

<p>This wont be accurate because it wont correspond to the specific risk. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What should good managers do regarding projects?

<p>examine any project from a variety of angles and look for clues to its riskiness (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If you are using beta's, what does it depend on?

<p>The strength of the relationship between the firm's earnings and the aggregate earnings of all firms. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If you're performing project risk assessment, should cash flow forecasts be adjusted by adding fudge factors to the discount rate, to account for worries?

<p>No, that would be unsound. Instead, include it in the calculation of expected cash flow. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose an investor holds a portfolio consisting of stocks with high standard deviations but low betas. How should one characterize the types of risks the investor is undertaking?

<p>High diversifiable and low market risk. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A financial analyst observes that a stock's price consistently rises even when interest rates increase. According to CAPM principles, what could explain this phenomenon, assuming CAPM holds TRUE?

<p>Stock performance may be caused by other factors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If markets are efficient and CAPM perfectly predicts returns, what is the alpha (risk-adjusted return relative to its beta) an investor could expect?

<p>Approximately zero. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Imagine an incredibly advanced AI financial model capable of predicting every market movement and accurately capturing a stock's systematic risk. However, every security is already fairly priced, no security can be miss-valued, transaction costs are zero, which of the following investment strategies make sense for that AI?

<p>Following a passive investment strategy that matches market risk-adjusted returns. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Capital Asset Pricing Mode assume about investors?

<p>Are well-diversified and are concerned only with market risk. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason that financial analysts typically use stock market indexes instead of a complete world asset portfolio?

<p>It is difficult to measure and include all assets in the world economy. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the risk of an individual stock defined in the context of a diversified portfolio?

<p>By the degree to which it contributes to the portfolio's exposure to macroeconomic risk. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a stock's beta represent?

<p>The stock's sensitivity to market returns. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a stock's beta is greater than 1.0, how are its returns likely to respond to changes in the overall market?

<p>They will respond more than one-for-one with market returns. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Company A has a beta of 1.5 and Company B has a beta of 0.5. If the market is expected to increase by 10%, which company is expected to have a larger percentage increase?

<p>Company A (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the average beta of all stocks in the market?

<p>1.0 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one way to measure relatedness of changes in one random variable with another?

<p>Both B and C (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the impact of diversification on unique risk and market risk?

<p>Diversification reduces unique risk but not market risk. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the 'pure play' approach primarily used for?

<p>Finding companies exclusively involved in a single line of business. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why do companies use the 'pure play' approach?

<p>A and B (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What should a manager do if they're assessing a project of systematic risk?

<p>Examine a variety of angles and look for clues to its riskiness (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the Capital Asset Pricing Model assume about the stock market?

<p>The stock market is dominated by well-diversified investors concerned only with market risk. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the CAPM, what two things does the expected rate of return depend on?

<p>C and a risk premium (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to CAPM, how should expected rates of return be on the security market line?

<p>lie on this line (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a new project does not have the same risk as an existing business, what should you do?

<p>Use the pure play approach (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the provided text, what is the danger of adding 'fudge factors' to discount rates?

<p>It mixes diversifiable risks, which shouldn't affect discount rates, with market risk. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the recommendation for an investment with a beta of -2, according to CAPM?

<p>A high interest offering should not be accepted (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a project's expected rate of return lies signficantly above the security market line, given its systematic risk (beta), what is said about the investment?

<p>The project offers higher return potential than equivalent risk investments. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the information provided, what kind of information would indicate high market risk?

<p>B and C (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A portfolio manager adds a stock with a beta of -0.5 to a portfolio, in an effort to lower the risk. Under what conditions would this strategy prove counterproductive?

<p>During a severe boom. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Market Portfolio

A collection of assets in the world economy, including stocks, bonds, real estate and foreign securities.

Beta

A stock's sensitivity to broad market movements; how much a stock amplifies market risk.

Aggressive Stocks

Stocks with betas greater than 1.0, meaning their returns tend to respond more than one-for-one with market changes.

Defensive Stocks

Stocks with betas less than 1.0, meaning their returns vary less than one-for-one with market returns.

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Unique Risk

Risk that is unique to individual stocks and can be eliminated through diversification.

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Calculating Beta

Calculate as: Correlation of stock's and market's returns times stock's standard deviation divided by market's standard deviation.

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Market Risk

Risk that remains even after diversification, tied to macroeconomic factors.

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Portfolio Beta

The weighted average of the betas of the securities in the portfolio.

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Mutual Funds and ETFs

Investors buy shares and funds by portfolios of securities.

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Market Risk Premium (MRP)

The difference between the expected return on the market portfolio and the interest rate on Treasury bills.

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Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

States the expected risk premium on any security equals its beta times the market risk premium

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Security Market Line

A graph that shows how expected rate of return depends on beta

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Opportunity Cost of Capital

The return that shareholders give up by investing money in the company

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Company Cost of Capital

To discount the cash flows on all new projects within the company

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Pure-Play Approach

A term used by investors to refer to companies exclusively involved in a single line of business.

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Study Notes

Measuring Market Risk

  • Macroeconomic events impact nearly all companies and stock returns.
  • Tracking a market portfolio's rate of return measures the impact of "macro" news.
  • The market portfolio performance reflects macro events due to the averaging out of firm-specific events and unique risks across numerous companies and securities.
  • A market portfolio theoretically contains all world economy assets for maximum diversification.
  • Financial analysts use stock market indices like the S&P/TSX Composite Index (TSX) or the S&P 500 in practice.
  • Common stock risk lies in the degree to which it increases a portfolio's exposure to macroeconomic risks.
  • Stock effect on risk is measured by its returns' sensitivity to broad market portfolio return fluctuations.
  • Beta, often noted as β, indicates a stock's sensitivity to market fluctuations.

Measuring Beta

  • Diversification reduces risk unique to individual stocks but cannot eliminate overall market decline risk.
  • The average beta of all stocks is 1.0.
  • Defensive stocks have betas less than 1.0 and are not very sensitive to market fluctuations.
  • Aggressive stocks amplify market movements evidenced in betas greater than 1.0.

Calculating and Interpreting Beta

  • Beta calculation includes:
    • Observing stock and market rates of return
    • Plotting the observations
    • Fitting a line showing the average return at different market returns
  • Beta of Turbot-Charged Seafoods = 0.8, because on average Turbot stock gains or loses 0.8% when the market is up or down by 1%.
  • Anchovy Queen's beta is 1.
  • In practice, computers perform beta computations
  • Beta is the slope of the fitted line.
  • Excel's SLOPE function can calculate beta.

Beta Formula using Correlation

  • Beta of a stock can be derived by correlation of stock versus market returns and standard deviations of stock and market returns
  • Beta is consistent with beta estimation as the slope of the fitted line.
  • Suncor has a has beta of 1.79.
  • Telus has a has beta of .53.
  • Returns on suncor and Telus have been determined using data S&P/TSX composite Index.

Total Risk & Diversification

  • Stocks with higher beta tend to display higher total variability based on standard deviation.
  • Total risk differs from market risk.
  • Barrick Gold:
    • Faces risks like gold price volatility, increased production costs, and political/operational risks.
    • Risks are shown in Barrick Gold stocks high standard deviation.
    • Experiences mostly firm-specific risks.
    • Exhibits above-average total volatility with relatively low beta.
  • Diversification lowers variability, not market risk, because the beta equals 1.
  • A diversified investor evaluates risk.
  • Individual stocks contributions determine portfolio risk.

Investment in Mutual Funds

  • Mutual and exchange-traded funds offer a method of owning diversified portfolios.
  • Funds act like investment cooperatives.
  • For Newgrowth Corporation mutual fund, the funds had below-average sensitivity to market changes, .739 beta.
  • For iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index fund, the fund has a beta of .996, which rounds to 1.0 and had a low residual of unique risk, as it tracks the market as closely as possible..

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