Questions and Answers
The Delphi Method involves surveying a panel of experts to reach a group opinion through a single questionnaire.
False
Sales Force Polling is primarily used to gather predictions directly from the sales team.
True
Consumer Market Surveys collect data from customers to understand their buying behaviors.
True
Time Series Forecasting relies on future data to predict past trends.
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Quantitative forecasting may include models such as moving average and weighted moving average.
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The main strength of Sales Force Polling is its reliance on indirect market insights.
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Decomposition of a time series involves breaking past data into four components: trend, seasonality, cycle, and random variations.
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The Naive Model is a complex forecasting method that uses numerous variables to predict future trends.
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Exponential smoothing relies heavily on the value of alpha ($\alpha$) to determine the weight of recent observations in forecasts.
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Trend projection techniques cannot visually represent the relationship between variables in a dataset.
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The least squares method is used to maximize the deviations between observed values and predicted values.
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Sales force polling is a method of qualitative forecasting where opinions from sales personnel are gathered to predict future sales.
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The Delphi Method is a qualitative forecasting approach that seeks to build consensus among a panel of experts through multiple rounds of questioning.
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Consumer market surveys are typically used in time series forecasting to analyze historical data patterns.
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Associative models are used in forecasting to focus solely on historical data without considering external influencing factors.
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Time series forecasting methods exclusively use sales data collected over time to make predictions without considering external factors.
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The Delphi Method uses the insights of experts to create a forecast.
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Sales Force Polling is a qualitative approach used for long-term forecasting.
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Consumer Market Surveys are exclusively quantitative and cannot include subjective judgment.
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Qualitative forecasts rely more on numerical data than on decision-makers' intuition.
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Expert Opinions are considered a core principle of qualitative forecasting methods.
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The qualitative approach is less relevant when numerical data is abundant.
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Time Series Forecasting is categorized under qualitative forecasting methods.
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All qualitative forecasting methods can be subject to bias.
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Study Notes
Delphi Method
- A structured technique for reaching group consensus through expert opinions.
- Involves multiple rounds of questionnaires answered anonymously by a panel of experts.
- Responses are aggregated and shared after each round to refine opinions.
- Avoids peer pressure by allowing individual responses.
Sales Force Polling
- Gathers sales predictions directly from sales teams familiar with customer behavior.
- Leverages frontline insights for more accurate sales forecasts.
- Helps forecast future sales based on market trends and customer interactions.
Consumer Market Survey
- Collects data from customers regarding preferences and buying behaviors.
- Aims to understand consumer demand, aiding product planning and marketing strategies.
- Direct customer feedback is a significant advantage for informed decision-making.
Quantitative Forecasting
- Two main types: Associative (Causal) Models and Time Series Forecasting.
- Utilizes mathematical models based on historical data and causal variables to predict future demand.
Time Series Forecasting Models
- Assumes future trends are based on past performance; primarily uses historical data.
- Key models include:
- Naive Model
- Moving Average
- Weighted Moving Average
- Exponential Smoothing
- Important for avoiding inventory mismatches.
Decomposition of a Time Series Forecast
- Analyzes four components: Trend, Seasonality, Cycle, and Random Variations.
- Breaks down past data to project future trends, minimizing the risk of overstocking/understocking.
Users of Forecast
- Finance Managers: Allocate funding and anticipate cash needs.
- Marketing Managers: Estimate sales and plan promotional activities.
- Human Resource Managers: Plan hiring to meet organizational objectives.
- Colleges and Universities: Estimate enrollments and associated revenues and resources.
Forecasting Approaches
- Two general approaches:
- Qualitative Approach: Focuses on short-term forecasts using subjective judgment.
- Quantitative Approach: Relies on numerical data and statistical models.
Qualitative Forecasts
- Based on intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and values.
- Suitable when numerical data is lacking or insufficient.
- Includes methods like Expert Opinions, Delphi Method, Sales Force Polling, and Consumer Market Opinions.
Exponential Smoothing
- A continuous adjustment process for forecasting.
- Adjusted using an alpha (α) value; higher alpha gives more weight to recent data.
Trend Projection
- Employs a technique to fit a trend line to historical data for medium-to-long-range forecasts.
- Uses the least squares method to find the optimal trend line that minimizes the deviations error from observed values.
- Visual inspection helps identify potential trend lines before applying statistical methods.
Key Components in Trend Projection
- The relationship between variables is visualized to draw a fitting trend line.
- Sudden changes and fluctuations may complicate projections.
Associative Model
- Integrates various influencing factors into the forecasting model.
- Regression analysis is a common method for identifying relationships between variables.
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Description
This quiz covers key market research methods including the Delphi Method, Sales Force Polling, Consumer Market Surveys, and Quantitative Forecasting. Explore how these techniques gather valuable insights about consumer behavior and enhance decision-making in marketing strategies.
