Living in Conflict: Session 2

• The presentation is entitled "Living in Conflict."
• The session is session 2, presented by Dr. Jeffrey Michaels.

Learning Objectives

• The session will consider what it is like 'living in conflict'.
• The session will discuss the consequences of war and armed conflict.

The Problem

• Political science explains war phenomena, but misses a great deal and potentially distorts understanding.
• The class will compare a wide-ranging discussion of war with mainstream political science's approach.
• The aim is to consider the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches for understanding war.

Understanding What It Is Like to Live in Conflict

• There is no ideal method to understand how to 'live in conflict' without 'living in conflict'.
• It is necessary to rely on the experiences of others.
• This can be done through writings, interviews, photographs, etc.
• Differences exist between different conflicts eg: Conflict A and Conflict B.
• There are differences between the experiences of different persons who lived through conflicts.
• Important differences also exist in the way we live now compared to how people lived then.

Different Groups Experience Conflict In Different Ways

• Soldiers experience war differently than civilians.
• Frontline combat soldiers versus support personnel endure different aspects of conflict.
• Aggressors and defenders have varying experiences.
• War affects older versus younger people differently.
• Males and females have different experiences.
• Those who escape war versus those who can't have vastly different experiences.

Reading Material

• There will be reading from "Hiroshima Survivors," "Baghdad Diary," "US Drone Operator," and "Ukrainian Civilians in 2022".
• Consider how human experiences provide a different perspective on war compared to political science.

Survivor Experiences

• Emiko Okada, a survivor of Hiroshima, says that Hiroshima is known as a 'city of yakuza.'
• Thousands of children were orphaned on August 6, 1945; without parents, they stole to get by and were often taken in by the wrong adults.
• At the time the bomb dropped, Okada was eight, and her older sister, 12, was working on a building demolition site and never came home.
• Her parents refused to send an obituary notice in hopes that she was still alive.
• Okada was affected by radiation and vomited, and her hair fell out, gums bled, making her too ill to attend school.
• "How cruel...if only it weren't for the atomic bomb" was a common expression until Okada's grandmother died.
• Children fell victim because of the war caused by the selfish misdeeds of adults.
• Okada believes adults must do everything they can to protect the lives and dignity of children, who are our greatest blessing.

Baghdad

• A "Baghdad Diary" account lists recent atrocities, including a high-profile kidnapping, a massacre, and a car bombing.
• Wisam apologizes for the grim tidings and tells of 10 bodies discovered in his neighborhood, all fellow Shi'ites who were decapitated.
• Since a suicide bombing, his wife has been suffering anxiety attacks when she goes shopping.

Drone Operator

• In the spring of 2011, Senior Airman Brandon Bryant left the Air Force after six years and turned down a $109,000 bonus.
• He received a scorecard covering his squadron's missions, including enemies killed and captured, which he called his diploma.
• Though he hadn't lased the target or pulled the trigger on all the deaths tallied, he felt he had enabled them and that the number 'made me sick'.

Ukraine Air Raid

• A Ukrainian university student remembers the first air raid siren "was like a baptism by fire."
• They were so scared that they couldn't speak and felt like they were having a panic attack.
• Shelters were open and ready to receive people the next time the air raid siren sounded.
• During the day the student usually goes to the shelter, but at night hides in corridor.
• Acquaintances and friends live next door to each other, and they sit and talk about work, studies, the war, and current events.
• After a week, they got used to the sound of the air raid siren, still, it makes they shudder and start thinking differently.
• Although it feels safer in Chernivtsi, the siren compels to take a good look at yourself and your life.

Visuals

• Photos from Syria, Gaza, and Ukraine are shown as examples of the effects of war.
• Consider personal reactions to these photos.
• Do these photos help appreciate the reality of contemporary conflict?
• Do these photos distort the reality of contemporary conflict?
• If these or similar photos did not exist, how would understanding of this conflict change?

War in the Smartphone Age

• The role of communication, connectivity, and information during war is demonstrated.
• Focus is on the connectivity and the crises at our fingertips.

IT in Ukraine

• Ukraine is creating an "IT army" and requires digital talents to fight on the cyber front.

Living in Conflict

• "Living in conflict" can mean many things, including the effects of the Ukraine war on Africa that leave millions starving.

Personal Experiences of War

• Pete Whalon volunteered for the US Army during the Vietnam War.
• He also served in Vietnam and re-enlisted for a second tour of duty.

Effects of War

• After the U.S. invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, and withdrew in 2011, about half a million Iraqis died and 9.2 million were displaced.
• Over 4.7 million experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.
• Since 2014, 3 million Iraqis have been displaced within the country, and 260,000 have fled to neighboring countries.
• At least 1.5 million people have sought refuge in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where one in four people is a refugee or internally displaced.
• Syria remains the world's largest refugee crisis following over a decade of conflict.
• More than 14 million Syrians are displaced since 2011
• Over 7.4 million Syrians are internally displaced in their own country, with 70% needing humanitarian assistance and 90% living below the poverty line.
• Around 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in neighboring countries.
• Germany hosts over 850,000 Syrian refugees.

Gaza

• According to the UN, up to 1.9 million people in Gaza are internally displaced.
• Some have been displaced nine or ten times.

Analyzing War

• It is time to turn off emotions and think analytically about war since, "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic." - Joseph Stalin

Consequences of War

• "Any given war will have several kinds of effects. The consequences of war may be permanent or temporary. They may be manifested in the short or long term. They may be direct or indirect. They can also be positive or negative" - William Thompson (1995)

Effects at the National Level

• Technological innovation is accelerated.
• Examples of this includes nuclear energy, computers, penicillin, and rocketry in WWII.
• Damage occurs to farm and other land.
• Labor is lost because soldiers and civilians are killed or disabled.
• Capital such as infrastructure like buildings, bridges and machinery is lost.
• Widespread declines in economic productivity can occur, temporarily or permanently.
• Some countries recover quicker than others.

Impacts on Economic Factors

• John Meynard Keynes used a scissors metaphor to explain an economic impact.
• Opening of scissors as gap widens between losers and winners.
• Closing scissors as international economic chaos leads to economic problems for winners, so the gap narrows.
• Norman Angell posits that all nations lose economic power, but winners do not lose as much as losers.
• Organski and Kugler's Phoenix factor explains there is a relatively quick recovery.
• Examples of this would be Germany after WWI, and Germany and Japan after WWII.

Demographic Consequences

• There can be a significant increase in mortality rates, particularly for young adult males.
• Civilians also die as a result of premature death due to wartime deterioration.
• There may be declines in marriage/childbirth.

Social and Political Consequences

• There may be shifts related to women’s rights; impact of women in World War I contributed to women's right to vote in the United States in 1920.
• Male workers enlisted in military, women take on roles outside of home in factories and other positions.
• National Health Service may be affected.

Indicators

• It is crucial to determine how long after a war one should look to find effects.
• It also means choosing what indicators need to be monitored.
• As well as, what groups/institutions should be focused on.
• World War II has greatest and farthest-reaching consequences because 100 million people served in military forces in 30 countries and operations too place across every continent.
• There were tens of millions of military and civilian casualties.

Major Changes to the International System

• While large wars tend to have large consequences, small wars have an impact: the 1866 Seven Weeks War changed the international order by providing foundation for German hegemony.
• World War I led to the decline of British power.
• Germany lost all its colonies, Austria-Hungary broke up, and Russia lost part of its empire.
• Germany had a Phoenix factor after WWI, bouncing back by the mid-to-late 1930s.
• World War II led to an emergence of US, and decline of colonial powers.
• The UK, France, and the Netherlands colonial powers declined due to the war.
• The USSR arrived in heart of Europe which caused fears lead to formation of WEU/NATO.
• The invasion of Norway and Netherlands resulted in both neutral countries joining NATO.
• Japan dominated much of the world economically, despite a failure to dominate militaristically.
• Sweden and Finland gave up neutrality after 200 years.

Conclusion

• Political science helps provide insights into war and armed conflict.
• Can also be useful in capturing the experience of 'living in conflict'.