Hypothesis Testing and Bias

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Questions and Answers

What percentage of researchers reported that their research was mostly driven by non-absolute hypotheses?

96% (correct)

22%

81%

77%

What approach did 81% of researchers indicate they would take when working with absolute hypotheses?

Confirmatory approach

Exploratory approach

Heuristic approach

Disconfirmatory approach (correct)

What heuristic describes the initial focus on seeking confirmatory evidence followed by disconfirming evidence?

Confirm early - disconfirm late heuristic (correct)

Falsification heuristic

Theory-testing heuristic

Confirmation bias heuristic

What percentage of psychologists reported having excluded data inconsistent with their hypotheses?

62% Signup and view all the answers

What was a common issue found in over 10% of p-values in research journals?

They inaccurately changed significance status Signup and view all the answers

What common error do people exhibit when reasoning about premises?

They ignore the implications of false premises. Signup and view all the answers

What aspect is heavily involved in constructing mental models during reasoning?

Working memory system Signup and view all the answers

Which type of processing is characterized by automaticity and lack of cognitive involvement?

Type 1 intuitive processing Signup and view all the answers

How does working memory capacity correlate with syllogistic reasoning performance?

It is positively correlated. Signup and view all the answers

What limitation do dual-process theories have when applied to ambiguous reasoning problems?

They often fail to predict people's answers accurately. Signup and view all the answers

What does Johnson-Laird's mental-model theory primarily explain in relation to Wason's selection task?

The intuitive and deliberate processes involved in selections Signup and view all the answers

In syllogistic reasoning, which of the following best describes the term 'belief bias'?

The inclination to accept believable but invalid conclusions Signup and view all the answers

Which factor was shown to influence syllogistic reasoning performance in a study?

The perceived probability of syllogisms being valid Signup and view all the answers

How can differences in the meanings of expressions in formal logic and everyday language affect reasoning?

They can create confusion over the validity of conclusions Signup and view all the answers

What was the effect of spelling out premises unambiguously in the study mentioned?

It greatly enhanced performance in syllogistic reasoning Signup and view all the answers

Which cards need to be turned over to determine if the rule 'If there is an R on one side of the card, then there is a 2 on the other side of the card' is correct?

R and 7 Signup and view all the answers

What effect does motivation have on performance in the Wason selection task?

It improves performance when participants need to disprove the rule. Signup and view all the answers

Which statement accurately reflects the relationship between abstract and concrete versions of the Wason selection task?

Concrete tasks yield a higher percentage of correct answers than abstract tasks. Signup and view all the answers

What was the result of the study regarding participants who believed they had high emotional lability?

38% solved the problem compared to 9% of the control. Signup and view all the answers

How do people typically approach making choices related to confirming or disconfirming evidence based on potential outcomes?

Concerned about benefits, they focus on disconfirming evidence. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Reasoning and Hypothesis Testing

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out and favor information that confirms existing beliefs or hypotheses.
Falsification is the attempt to disprove a hypothesis through experimental testing.
Wason's 2-4-6 task demonstrates that participants often fail to generate sets of numbers that would falsify their initial hypothesis.
Only 21% of students correctly identified the rule (ascending order numbers) on their first try.
Participants tend to preserve information from example sets in their initial hypotheses.
Falsification tests are more effective when testing other people's hypotheses.

Hypothesis Testing in Real and Simulated Environments

Scientists usually take a confirmatory approach.
Research analysis shows 77% of studies sought to confirm a hypothesis, and 91% supported existing theories.
The optimal approach for absolute hypotheses is falsification.
For non-absolute hypotheses, falsification is less critical.

Deductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning generalizes from specific examples.
Deductive reasoning draws certain conclusions from assumed truths.
Conditional reasoning uses "if-then" statements.
Affirmation of the consequent and denial of the antecedent are logical errors.
Modus ponens (if P, then Q and P, thus Q) and modus tollens (if P, then Q and not Q, thus not P) are rules of inference.

Conditional Reasoning: Common Errors and Models

Affirmation of the consequent (believing if the outcome occurred it means one thing).
Denial of the antecedent (believing if one thing does not occur it means the outcome won't occur)
Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens
Klauer's dual-source model: knowledge and form-based.
Verschuere's dual-process model: counterexample strategy and intuitive statistical strategy.

Wason Selection Task

Difficult task requiring participants to determine if a rule is valid
Abstract versions are harder than concrete versions.
Matching bias is the tendency to select cards matching the items in the rule
Performance is better with concrete than abstract scenarios
Research shows motivation to disprove a rule improves performance on the Wason selection task

Syllogistic Reasoning

Syllogisms are logical arguments (premises followed by a conclusion).
Belief bias is the tendency to accept believable conclusions and reject unbelievable ones, even if the conclusion is logically invalid.
The match-bias often influences performance and decision-making.

Mental Models Theory

Mental models are internal representations of situations.

Dual-Process Theories

Type 1 processing is intuitive, fast, and automatic.
Type 2 processing is reflective, slower, and controlled.
Default-intervention theory: type 1 automatic processing is followed by type 2 (a more deliberate) processing.
Logical-intuition model: type 1 processing includes logical intuitive responses, and it conflicts with type 2 response.

Informal Reasoning: Factors and Biases

Informal reasoning uses knowledge and experience.
Solution aversion: reluctance to consider solutions that seem unfavorable or difficult.
Myside bias: seeking out information confirming pre-existing beliefs.
Argumentation theory: exchange of justifications and arguments

Reasoning and Probabilities

Bayesian approach: prior beliefs are updated with new evidence to get probability

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Description

This quiz explores key concepts in hypothesis testing, including confirmation bias and the effectiveness of falsification. It examines the implications of these ideas through Wason's 2-4-6 task and discusses the importance of falsifying hypotheses in research. Test your understanding of these critical reasoning concepts.