Geopolitics of the Middle East

• Study notes on Geopolitics and International Relations in the Middle East

Islam

• Islam is the dominant religion in the Middle East.
• Many different versions of Islam exist with divisions within the religion.
• Sunni and Shia Muslims emerged in 632 CE.
• Shia Muslims form the minority (estimated at 15%) of the total Muslim population.

Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916)

• The Sykes-Picot Agreement was a secret 1916 agreement between the United Kingdom and France, with the assent of the Russian Empire.
• It divided the Ottoman Arab provinces outside the Arabian Peninsula into areas of British and French control and influence.
• The agreement is frequently cited as having created artificial borders in the Middle East, disregarding ethnic or sectarian characteristics, leading to endless conflict.
• ISIS aims to reverse the effects of the Sykes-Picot Agreement as one of its goals.

The Middle East in 1914

• In 1914, the Middle East included a fertile region (Mesopotamia) and the largest continuous sand desert in the world.
• There were more borders than currently exist, usually determined by geography.
• The Hejaz railway allowed free travel from Damascus to Medina.
• European colonialism left the Arabs grouped into nation-states ruled by leaders who favored their branch of Islam and tribe.

Iraq

• Historically, Iraq has been divided into 3 regions: Ottoman Empire: Mosul (Kurds, mountains), Baghdad (Sunni, flatland) and Basra (Shia, marshlands).
• Since colonization, Iraq is now a Sunni-led government.
• Iraq came under the British sphere of influence.
• For decades, stability in Iraq was achieved through fear.

Kurdistan

• Kurds live in different nation-states: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.
• They live in the fertile flatland.
• The boundaries for an independent Kurdistan are not clear.
• Kurds are currently attempting to establish an independent state based on the Rojava region in Syria.

Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria

• Europeans used the "divide and rule" strategy in these areas.
• These countries face demographic tensions, partly related to the refugees' issue.
• Lebanon conducts a census every year to control such tensions.
• Local militias are often stronger than the national army in these countries.

Israel/Palestine

• Today's Palestine is poor, divided, and overpopulated, with millions of refugees in other parts of the world.
• Most Arab countries have helped Palestinians by granting them citizenship.
• The conflict is asymmetrical, as Israel has nuclear weapons while Palestine lacks an army.
• Israel faces security threats from attacks and rocket fire from its neighbors.

Iran

• Iran is a non-Arabic, large country with a Farsi-speaking majority, mostly living in the mountains.
• Mountains make it difficult for invaders to occupy the country.
• Its geography has facilitated an interconnected economy with insignificant minority populations.
• Israel is concerned about Iran's nuclear industry due to Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkey

• Part of Turkey's territory is geographically in Europe, and part is in Asia.
• Turkey is a secular democracy, but there is a worrying evolution in recent decades.
• Turkey is a NATO member.
• The control of the Bosphorus strait makes Turkey a relevant geopolitical actor in the region.

The Middle East Cold War

• This is the ongoing struggle for influence in the Middle East and surrounding regions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• Both countries provide support to opposing sides in conflicts, including civil wars in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
• The conflict is waged on multiple levels over geopolitical, economic, and sectarian influence.
• Russian and Chinese support for Saudi Arabia and its allies in addition to United States support for Iran is similar to the dynamics of the Cold War era.