Foreign Policy Decision Making

Foreign Policy Caveats

• Individuals are important but don't be reductionist
• Actions are always constrained by internal and external factors
• Decision-making processes vary
• Understanding the larger context is crucial (levels of analysis, time, and theoretical perspectives).

Ideal Decision Makers

• Policymakers, presidents, and National Security Council members are examples
• All levels of bureaucracy
• Maximizing utility (cost vs. benefit), minimizing subjectivity
• Rational Actor Model (RAM) exists theoretically but is imperfect.

Rational Actor Model (RAM)

• Clarify goals, prioritize them, list alternatives, assess consequences
• Choose the alternative that best attains goals and minimizes costs.

Why RAM Doesn't Exist

• Misperceptions, selective perception, information screens, and affective bias impede perfect rationality in decision-making.

Emotional Influence

• Decision-makers have strong feelings about people and states.

Cognitive Bias

• Increased cognitive balance or decrease cognitive dissonance
• Justification of actions, wishful thinking
• Hardened perceptions of enemies, historical analogies

Realistic Rationality/Realistic RAM

• Bounded rationality characterizes decision-making
• Optimization is choosing the best option. However, it often isn't the most effective option
• Satisficing: choosing a satisfactory, not necessarily best, option.
• Decision phases: editing phase and evaluation phase

Groupthink

• Members' striving for unanimity over realistic appraisal of alternatives is common
• Characteristics include loyalty over questions, seeking harmony, dissent seen as disloyalty, and pressure on nonconformists.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models

• Organizational Process Model: use of standard operating procedures (SOPs) for efficiency
• Management by Muddling Through: loose control, everyday procedures
• Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM): bargaining among agencies with different interests.

Other Influences

• Interest groups (coalitions, liberal vs. realist vs. constructivist views)
• Public opinion (more impact in democracies)
• Legislatures (less independent actors)

Conclusions on Foreign Policy

• Foreign policy is distinct from international relations.
• Hierarchical positions affect decisions.
• Understanding state leaders informs understanding of foreign policy.

Future of the Nation-State Arguments

• Extremes: world government or no government
• Regional organizations

Fukuyama- The End Of History

• Liberalism is the dominant ideology.
• No new challenges (ideology).
• Progressive view of history (possibly regression).

Huntington- Clash of Civilizations

• Cultural differences drive conflict.
• Civilizations are the highest cultural grouping.
• Civilizations are defined by common elements like language, religion.

Classifications of War

• Helps identify potential causes and solutions for conflicts
• Hegemonic war (most serious): control over the entire world order (e.g., WWI, WWII)
• Civil war: factions within state vying for control
• Guerrilla war: warfare without clear lines, amidst civilians.
• Total war: entire society of enemy is a target

Theories of War Causes

• Scapegoat theory-bad economic conditions cause leaders to focus on external foes
• Diversionary theory-distract from internal problems through external conflict.

Power, Size, and Development

• International organizations and alliances
• Greater capacity to act and take responsibility for balance of power.
• Power transition theory (inequity causes shifts in global power).

Arms Races

• Progressive, competing increase in armaments between states for conflicting purposes.

Cycle Theories

• Linkage of wars to long economic waves.

Five 'Fits'

• One nation, one state (an ideal but not reality)

Multinational States

• Countries with multiple nationalities (e.g., Canada with English, French, and Inuits).

Security Community (Jervis)

• Cooperation, security among states.

Why War Among Great Powers May Not Happen

• Current rules and state power prevent it, war is no longer a concern for developed states.

International Law

• International customary law, treaties, and judicial decisions
• States comply with the rules most of the time, but exceptions can cause considerable disruptions.
• Enforcement of rules is often problematic.

Important Terms

• Sources of International Law (customs, treaties)
• Jus Cogens: highest rank norms within law (genocide, crimes against humanity)

International Criminal Law

• Recognized crimes (slavery, piracy, peacetime hostage taking)
• International courts can try individuals for these crimes.
• Focus on individual culpability for crimes that threaten all.

Terrorism

• Methods vary (demo, destructive, suicide).
• States need to recognize that there needs to be balance between safety and liberty.

Terrorism Basics

• Strategic in nature (using the most effective method for the least collateral damage).

Terrorism Definitions

• Definitions are developed legally.
• Those by individuals are broader.

How to Reduce Terrorism

• Military, intelligence improvements
• International cooperation (sharing intel, joint efforts)
• Alleviating societal and political situations

International Law Related to Terrorism

• International Covenants and treaties
• Obligations toward states

Human Rights

• Inalienable rights, including basic rights
• Positive and normative rights
• Protecting human dignity.

Other

• Pop Culture's Relation to International Relations.
• Pop Culture reflects values and ideals, especially American exceptionalism.
• Pop culture can be insightful but is a subjective lens.

Explore the complexities of foreign policy decision-making in this quiz. Delve into the roles of policymakers, the Rational Actor Model, and the various internal and external factors that influence decisions. Understand the limitations of rationality and the impact of emotional and cognitive biases on the process.