Foreign Policy Decision Making

Quick Caveats on Foreign Policy

• Individuals are important, but not the sole solution to problems. Blaming one person is often an oversimplification.
• Actions are constrained by both international and domestic factors.
• Foreign Policy is not the same as International Affairs. Foreign Policy focuses on specific events and decisions, whereas International Affairs encompasses larger trends and patterns.

Ideal Decision Makers

• Decision-makers include presidents, policymakers, the NSC, and bureaucratic personnel at all levels.
• Decision-makers are expected to be rational in their decision-making, although biases and emotions may influence decisions (mind over heart).

Model of Decision Making: RAM (Realistic)

• Clarifying goals and prioritizing them is a crucial first step in decision-making.
• Identifying and evaluating alternatives is essential.
• Weighing the consequences of each alternative, including anticipating potential outcomes and setting a schedule, is vital.
• Choosing the best option is the ultimate goal.

Why RAM (Realistic) Doesn't Always Work

• Misperceptions and selective perception can skew the decision-making process.
• Personal feelings and biases, known as affective bias, can skew or influence decision makers' perceptions, decisions and behaviors towards others.
• Cognitive bias, stemming from the limited ability to process information, poses a challenge to perfect rational decision-making.

Personality Matters (Leadership Trait Analysis)

• Leadership characteristics are essential to understanding personal decisions.
• The model of bounded rationality is important to consider because people may not always make the ideal or best choice.

In-Group Bias

• Leaders often display in-group bias, which can heighten distrust and complicate decision-making processes in group settings, especially during wartime.
• Leaders may exhibit characteristics such as dogmatism, authoritarianism, domineering tendencies, and narcissism.

Groupthink

• Groupthink can hinder critical thinking, efficiency, and moral judgment.
• Striving for unanimity within a group often mitigates realistically appraising alternative courses of action.

Loyalty and Harmony

• Loyalty to the group is a crucial concern for many groups.
• Seeking harmony and avoiding conflict is strongly valued.

Other Influences on Foreign Policy

• Interest groups with shared goals play a role in influencing decisions.
• Public opinion can significantly sway decisions within democracies.

Hegemony

• Hegemony describes the leadership of a system (global or regional) by a dominant power.
• Hegemony contrasts with dictates (unipolarity).

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)

• SOPs, or standard operating procedures, are defined and restrictive rules developed from past experiences that govern how problems are addressed. SOPs are not very effective during new situations where past experiences and procedures do not apply.

Model of Decision Making: RAM

• Clarify Goals: Defining and ordering the goals by importance is critical; subjective prioritization is inevitable.
• Order Goals: Goals need to be ordered by priority.
• List Alternatives: Identify various options and choices for achieving these goals.
• Consequences: Analyze the outcomes, benefits, and costs for each alternative.
• Choose: Selecting a course of action based on the evaluation of consequences.

Classifications of War (HTLCG)

• Hegemonic War: Total warfare for global control; rare and debated.
• Total War: War aiming for the enemy's total defeat and occupation.
• Limited War: Objectives short of complete conquest.
• Civil War: Conflict between factions within a state, usually one already dominant; multiple sides possible.
• Guerrilla War: Irregular warfare by forces operating within populated areas, focusing often on local populations.

Theories of Causes of War

• Scapegoat Argument: Blaming a specific group for economic hardship or political issues.
• Bad economic conditions, ethnic divisions, increased political opposition are possible contributing factors.

Future of the Nation State

• Questions regarding state authority, possible replacements for the state, and new organizational structures are relevant to analyzing changing global politics.
• The state may be losing its relevance or role as the primary actor, given the evolution of international relations and globalization. The potential for a world government or regional organizations may emerge; or, in a different vein, conflicts may arise regarding diverse/differing cultural identities and perspectives.

Soft Law V. Hard Law

• Soft law: Accepted norms and principles, but not legally binding.
• Hard law: Legally binding rules.

Sources of International Law

• Customs: State practices recognized as obligatory.
• Treaties and Conventions: Targets entire international community, creates binding obligations.
• Jus Cogens (Crimes Everyone agrees on): Completely agreed upon laws (torture, genocide, war crimes, etc.)

Judicial Decisions and Writings

• Judicial precedent doesn't hold the same weight in international law as in a domestic context.

Terrorism

• Terrorism is multi-faceted, with various forms and motivations. It's an act that targets a population and is believed to influence behavior and/or perceptions.
• Terrorism is usually not state-sponsored or carried out by states, often seeking attention to influence political discourse and/or elicit public response.

Just War

• Jus ad bellum: Principles of when a war can be initiated. (e.g., legitimate justification for war, including proportionality, discrimination, and last resort).
• Jus in bello: Principles of how a war can be fought.

International Law

• International law is a set of rules, customs, and principles states recognize as binding.
• International law is complex, with multiple sources (customary law, treaties, judicial decisions) and various enforcement mechanisms. States are not always bound by the rules (exceptions occur).

Human Rights

• Human rights are entitlements for all people worldwide.
• The UN Charter Preamble, Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and various covenants comprise a comprehensive view of fundamental rights.