Forecasting Basics

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Questions and Answers

What is a forecast?

  • A statement about the current value of a variable of interest
  • A statement about the future value of a variable of interest (correct)
  • A statement about the past value of a variable of interest
  • A statement about the hypothetical value of a variable of interest

What are two important aspects of forecasts?

  • Trend analysis and seasonal variation
  • Expected level of supply and accuracy
  • Accuracy and precision
  • Expected level of demand and accuracy (correct)

What is a common feature of all forecasts?

  • Techniques assume some underlying causal system that existed in the past will persist into the future (correct)
  • Forecasts for individual items are more accurate than those for groups of items
  • Forecasts are always perfect
  • Forecast accuracy increases as the forecasting horizon increases

What does forecast accuracy decrease as?

<p>The forecasting horizon increases (C)</p>
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Why are forecasts not perfect?

<p>Because random variation is always present, there will always be some residual error, even if all other factors have been accounted for. (C)</p>
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