Podcast
Questions and Answers
Within the context of fixed effects models, which statement best characterizes the consequence of employing 'within estimation' techniques?
Within the context of fixed effects models, which statement best characterizes the consequence of employing 'within estimation' techniques?
- It eliminates the need for differencing by consistently estimating $β$ even when the number of time periods, $T$, is fixed and the number of individuals, $N$, approaches infinity, albeit at the cost of inconsistent $η_i$ estimation. (correct)
- It preconditions consistent estimation of $β$ on consistent estimation of $η_i$, requiring that $T$ approaches infinity to mitigate incidental parameters bias.
- It allows for consistent estimation of both $β$ and $η_i$ irrespective of whether $T → ∞$ or $N → ∞$, provided that the regressors are strictly exogenous.
- It necessitates the estimation of $η_i$ parameters only when both $N$ and $T$ are small, thereby alleviating computational burdens associated with large panel datasets.
Consider a panel data model where $Y_{it}$ represents individual $i$'s outcome at time $t$, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying covariate, $\eta_i$ represents time-invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is an idiosyncratic error term. Under what condition would estimating a random effects model be preferred over a fixed effects model, assuming the primary goal is to obtain consistent estimates of the effect of $X_{it}$ on $Y_{it}$?
Consider a panel data model where $Y_{it}$ represents individual $i$'s outcome at time $t$, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying covariate, $\eta_i$ represents time-invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is an idiosyncratic error term. Under what condition would estimating a random effects model be preferred over a fixed effects model, assuming the primary goal is to obtain consistent estimates of the effect of $X_{it}$ on $Y_{it}$?
- When heteroskedasticity is present in the error term $\epsilon_{it}$, but autocorrelation is absent.
- When the correlation between $X_{it}$ and $\eta_i$ is non-zero, and the sample size $N$ (number of individuals) is small relative to $T$ (number of time periods).
- When the exogeneity assumption $E[\eta_i | X_{i1}, ..., X_{iT}] = 0$ holds approximately, and the primary interest is in estimating the effects of time-invariant variables. (correct)
- When it is suspected that endogeneity exists due to omitted time-varying variables.
In a fixed effects model, consider a scenario where the number of individuals ($N$) greatly exceeds the number of time periods ($T$). If one were to estimate the model by including dummy variables for each individual, what is the most pertinent concern regarding the consistency of the estimators?
In a fixed effects model, consider a scenario where the number of individuals ($N$) greatly exceeds the number of time periods ($T$). If one were to estimate the model by including dummy variables for each individual, what is the most pertinent concern regarding the consistency of the estimators?
- While the estimator for $β$ remains consistent, the estimator for $η_i$ becomes inconsistent as $N$ grows, leading to biased inference on individual-specific effects.
- The estimator for $β$ will be inconsistent unless $N$ also tends to infinity due to the curse of dimensionality.
- The estimators for both $β$ and $η_i$ are consistent because the inclusion of dummy variables effectively addresses any omitted variable bias, regardless of the relative magnitudes of $N$ and $T$.
- Both the estimators for $β$ and $η_i$ will be inconsistent due to the incidental parameters problem if $T$ is fixed. (correct)
Suppose a researcher posits that the effect of education on wages is mediated by unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics. Within a fixed effects framework, how should the estimated coefficient on education ($X_{it}$) be interpreted?
Suppose a researcher posits that the effect of education on wages is mediated by unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics. Within a fixed effects framework, how should the estimated coefficient on education ($X_{it}$) be interpreted?
In a panel data setting, a researcher aims to estimate the impact of a time-varying treatment, $T_{it}$, on an outcome variable, $Y_{it}$. The researcher suspects that there are unobserved, time-invariant confounders, $\eta_i$, that are correlated with both the treatment and the outcome. However, the researcher is particularly interested in making inferences about the population-level average treatment effect. Which of the following considerations is most critical for determining whether a fixed effects or random effects estimator is more appropriate?
In a panel data setting, a researcher aims to estimate the impact of a time-varying treatment, $T_{it}$, on an outcome variable, $Y_{it}$. The researcher suspects that there are unobserved, time-invariant confounders, $\eta_i$, that are correlated with both the treatment and the outcome. However, the researcher is particularly interested in making inferences about the population-level average treatment effect. Which of the following considerations is most critical for determining whether a fixed effects or random effects estimator is more appropriate?
Given the fixed effects transformation $Y_{it} - \overline{Y_i} = (X_{it} - \overline{X_i})β + (ε_{it} - \overline{ε_i})$, what critical assumption must hold for the within estimator $β̂_{within}$ obtained via OLS to be unbiased and consistent?
Given the fixed effects transformation $Y_{it} - \overline{Y_i} = (X_{it} - \overline{X_i})β + (ε_{it} - \overline{ε_i})$, what critical assumption must hold for the within estimator $β̂_{within}$ obtained via OLS to be unbiased and consistent?
Consider a researcher using panel data to estimate the effect of job training programs ($X_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). The researcher is concerned that individuals with higher unobserved ability ($\eta_i$) are more likely to participate in job training programs and also tend to have higher wages, even without the training. In this scenario, which statement most accurately describes the potential consequences of using a random effects model and a fixed effects model?
Consider a researcher using panel data to estimate the effect of job training programs ($X_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). The researcher is concerned that individuals with higher unobserved ability ($\eta_i$) are more likely to participate in job training programs and also tend to have higher wages, even without the training. In this scenario, which statement most accurately describes the potential consequences of using a random effects model and a fixed effects model?
Given a panel data model $Y_{it} = \alpha + X_{it}\beta + \eta_i + \epsilon_{it}$, where $Y_{it}$ is the outcome, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying regressor, $\eta_i$ is an individual-specific effect, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is the error term, under what specific condition is the fixed effects estimator equivalent to the first-difference estimator?
Given a panel data model $Y_{it} = \alpha + X_{it}\beta + \eta_i + \epsilon_{it}$, where $Y_{it}$ is the outcome, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying regressor, $\eta_i$ is an individual-specific effect, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is the error term, under what specific condition is the fixed effects estimator equivalent to the first-difference estimator?
Consider a panel dataset where $Y_{it}$ represents income, $X_{it}$ represents years of schooling, $η_i$ captures time-invariant individual heterogeneity, and $ε_{it}$ is the error term. If you suspect that $η_i$ is correlated with $X_{it}$, what is the most appropriate estimation strategy to consistently estimate the effect of schooling on income?
Consider a panel dataset where $Y_{it}$ represents income, $X_{it}$ represents years of schooling, $η_i$ captures time-invariant individual heterogeneity, and $ε_{it}$ is the error term. If you suspect that $η_i$ is correlated with $X_{it}$, what is the most appropriate estimation strategy to consistently estimate the effect of schooling on income?
A researcher analyzes the impact of a new environmental regulation ($X_{it}$) on firm profitability ($Y_{it}$) using firm-level panel data. The researcher is concerned about unobserved, time-invariant firm-specific factors (e.g., managerial quality, geographical location) that might confound the analysis. What is the most compelling reason to favor a fixed effects (FE) estimator over a pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator in this scenario?
A researcher analyzes the impact of a new environmental regulation ($X_{it}$) on firm profitability ($Y_{it}$) using firm-level panel data. The researcher is concerned about unobserved, time-invariant firm-specific factors (e.g., managerial quality, geographical location) that might confound the analysis. What is the most compelling reason to favor a fixed effects (FE) estimator over a pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator in this scenario?
In the context of dynamic panel data models, where lagged values of the dependent variable are included as regressors, what econometric issue arises, and how does the Arellano-Bond estimator address it differently from traditional fixed effects or random effects approaches?
In the context of dynamic panel data models, where lagged values of the dependent variable are included as regressors, what econometric issue arises, and how does the Arellano-Bond estimator address it differently from traditional fixed effects or random effects approaches?
Assuming that the true model is a fixed effects model, what are the consequences of estimating a pooled OLS model instead?
Assuming that the true model is a fixed effects model, what are the consequences of estimating a pooled OLS model instead?
Suppose a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and suspects that the error term, $\epsilon_{it}$, is serially correlated. What are the implications of ignoring this serial correlation for inference, and which of the following methods would appropriately address this issue?
Suppose a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and suspects that the error term, $\epsilon_{it}$, is serially correlated. What are the implications of ignoring this serial correlation for inference, and which of the following methods would appropriately address this issue?
In the context of estimating causal effects with panel data, a researcher uses a fixed effects model to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, they are concerned that there might be time-varying unobserved confounders that are correlated with both the treatment variable and the outcome. Which of the following strategies would be most appropriate to address this concern?
In the context of estimating causal effects with panel data, a researcher uses a fixed effects model to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, they are concerned that there might be time-varying unobserved confounders that are correlated with both the treatment variable and the outcome. Which of the following strategies would be most appropriate to address this concern?
What conditions must be met for the parameters ( \beta ) in a fixed effects model to be identified?
What conditions must be met for the parameters ( \beta ) in a fixed effects model to be identified?
If implementing a within estimator, how can one calculate the individual-specific averages over time?
If implementing a within estimator, how can one calculate the individual-specific averages over time?
In the context of applying fixed effects (FE) models, particularly when analyzing twins, consider a scenario where the assumption of strict exogeneity is violated due to time-varying unobserved confounders affecting both birth weight ($X_{it}$) and later-life outcomes. Given this violation, which econometric strategy would MOST rigorously address the resulting bias in the FE estimate of birth weight's impact, assuming access to extensive longitudinal data and computational resources?
In the context of applying fixed effects (FE) models, particularly when analyzing twins, consider a scenario where the assumption of strict exogeneity is violated due to time-varying unobserved confounders affecting both birth weight ($X_{it}$) and later-life outcomes. Given this violation, which econometric strategy would MOST rigorously address the resulting bias in the FE estimate of birth weight's impact, assuming access to extensive longitudinal data and computational resources?
When employing a fixed effects model using sibling data to estimate the impact of a specific educational intervention, the identifying assumption is that unobserved family-level factors are controlled for. Assume you discover that the intervention's effect significantly differs based on the gender composition within the sibling pairs. What econometric modification would MOST effectively address this heterogeneity while still leveraging the fixed effects framework?
When employing a fixed effects model using sibling data to estimate the impact of a specific educational intervention, the identifying assumption is that unobserved family-level factors are controlled for. Assume you discover that the intervention's effect significantly differs based on the gender composition within the sibling pairs. What econometric modification would MOST effectively address this heterogeneity while still leveraging the fixed effects framework?
In a study examining the effect of early childhood health, proxied by birth weight, on adult earnings using a twins fixed-effects model, researchers discover evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects linked to the twins' zygosity (identical vs. fraternal). Specifically, the effect of birth weight on earnings appears stronger in monozygotic twins compared to dizygotic twins. Which statistical approach BEST addresses the complications arising from this finding?
In a study examining the effect of early childhood health, proxied by birth weight, on adult earnings using a twins fixed-effects model, researchers discover evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects linked to the twins' zygosity (identical vs. fraternal). Specifically, the effect of birth weight on earnings appears stronger in monozygotic twins compared to dizygotic twins. Which statistical approach BEST addresses the complications arising from this finding?
Consider a scenario where you are using fixed effects to estimate the causal impact of a policy change on individuals nested within firms but you suspect that firms anticipate and strategically respond to the policy change before its official implementation, creating a “pre-treatment” effect that varies across firms based on their individual characteristics. This anticipation violates the assumptions underlying standard fixed effects estimation. Which advanced econometric technique would be most appropriate to address this form of endogeneity?
Consider a scenario where you are using fixed effects to estimate the causal impact of a policy change on individuals nested within firms but you suspect that firms anticipate and strategically respond to the policy change before its official implementation, creating a “pre-treatment” effect that varies across firms based on their individual characteristics. This anticipation violates the assumptions underlying standard fixed effects estimation. Which advanced econometric technique would be most appropriate to address this form of endogeneity?
In a study employing a fixed effects model to analyze the impact of a new technology adoption on firm productivity, you discover that the error term exhibits significant serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Moreover, you suspect that the technology adoption decision is endogenous, influenced by unobserved firm-specific characteristics that also affect productivity. Which estimation technique would MOST comprehensively address these econometric challenges?
In a study employing a fixed effects model to analyze the impact of a new technology adoption on firm productivity, you discover that the error term exhibits significant serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Moreover, you suspect that the technology adoption decision is endogenous, influenced by unobserved firm-specific characteristics that also affect productivity. Which estimation technique would MOST comprehensively address these econometric challenges?
Under what specific condition does the first-difference estimator consistently estimate $\beta$ in the model $\Delta Y_{it} = \Delta X_{it} \beta + \Delta \epsilon_{it}$?
Under what specific condition does the first-difference estimator consistently estimate $\beta$ in the model $\Delta Y_{it} = \Delta X_{it} \beta + \Delta \epsilon_{it}$?
Consider a scenario where an unobserved time-specific shock affects both the outcome variable $Y$ and the regressor of interest $X$. How does this situation specifically violate the assumptions required for consistent estimation in fixed effects or first-difference models?
Consider a scenario where an unobserved time-specific shock affects both the outcome variable $Y$ and the regressor of interest $X$. How does this situation specifically violate the assumptions required for consistent estimation in fixed effects or first-difference models?
In the context of Angrist and Pischke's potential outcomes framework, what is the precise interpretation of the statement $E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t, D_{it}) = E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t)$?
In the context of Angrist and Pischke's potential outcomes framework, what is the precise interpretation of the statement $E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t, D_{it}) = E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t)$?
Under what key condition, according to the fixed effects model, can we consistently estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment ($D_{it}$) on an outcome ($Y_{it}$), even in the presence of unobserved individual-specific factors ($A_i$)?
Under what key condition, according to the fixed effects model, can we consistently estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment ($D_{it}$) on an outcome ($Y_{it}$), even in the presence of unobserved individual-specific factors ($A_i$)?
Suppose you are analyzing the impact of a new environmental regulation on firm productivity using a fixed effects model. Your data include firm-level productivity, regulatory compliance status, and other firm characteristics over ten years. However, you suspect that firms anticipated the regulation and started changing their production processes before it was officially implemented. How would this anticipation specifically affect the validity of your fixed effects estimates?
Suppose you are analyzing the impact of a new environmental regulation on firm productivity using a fixed effects model. Your data include firm-level productivity, regulatory compliance status, and other firm characteristics over ten years. However, you suspect that firms anticipated the regulation and started changing their production processes before it was officially implemented. How would this anticipation specifically affect the validity of your fixed effects estimates?
Consider a panel dataset where you are examining the effect of a job training program ($D_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). You are concerned about unobserved individual heterogeneity ($A_i$) and time-varying shocks. If the error term ($u_{it}$) in your fixed effects model exhibits positive serial correlation, what is the most likely consequence for your inference about the effect of the job training program?
Consider a panel dataset where you are examining the effect of a job training program ($D_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). You are concerned about unobserved individual heterogeneity ($A_i$) and time-varying shocks. If the error term ($u_{it}$) in your fixed effects model exhibits positive serial correlation, what is the most likely consequence for your inference about the effect of the job training program?
In a fixed effects regression framework, suppose you are estimating the impact of changes in state-level minimum wage laws ($X_{it}$) on employment ($Y_{it}$). You include state fixed effects to account for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, you are worried that unobserved, state-specific economic shocks that coincide with minimum wage changes might bias your results. Which of the following strategies would best address this concern?
In a fixed effects regression framework, suppose you are estimating the impact of changes in state-level minimum wage laws ($X_{it}$) on employment ($Y_{it}$). You include state fixed effects to account for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, you are worried that unobserved, state-specific economic shocks that coincide with minimum wage changes might bias your results. Which of the following strategies would best address this concern?
You are using a first-difference estimator to examine the effect of changes in air pollution levels ($\Delta X_{it}$) on respiratory health outcomes ($\Delta Y_{it}$). However, suppose that individuals who are more susceptible to respiratory illnesses are more likely to move to areas with lower air pollution. How does this endogenous mobility affect the validity of your first-difference estimates?
You are using a first-difference estimator to examine the effect of changes in air pollution levels ($\Delta X_{it}$) on respiratory health outcomes ($\Delta Y_{it}$). However, suppose that individuals who are more susceptible to respiratory illnesses are more likely to move to areas with lower air pollution. How does this endogenous mobility affect the validity of your first-difference estimates?
A researcher is using a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of access to broadband internet ($D_{it}$) on student test scores ($Y_{it}$). The researcher finds a positive and statistically significant effect. However, a reviewer points out that families with higher socioeconomic status are both more likely to have broadband internet and to invest more in their children's education in other ways, and that these investments may change over time along with broadband adoption. How does this critique specifically challenge the causal interpretation of the estimated effect of broadband internet on test scores?
A researcher is using a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of access to broadband internet ($D_{it}$) on student test scores ($Y_{it}$). The researcher finds a positive and statistically significant effect. However, a reviewer points out that families with higher socioeconomic status are both more likely to have broadband internet and to invest more in their children's education in other ways, and that these investments may change over time along with broadband adoption. How does this critique specifically challenge the causal interpretation of the estimated effect of broadband internet on test scores?
In the context of a panel data analysis, a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and a first-difference model to assess the impact of a policy change. The estimated coefficient of interest differs substantially between the two models. Assuming both models are correctly specified in other respects, which of the scenarios below is the most likely explanation for the divergence in results?
In the context of a panel data analysis, a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and a first-difference model to assess the impact of a policy change. The estimated coefficient of interest differs substantially between the two models. Assuming both models are correctly specified in other respects, which of the scenarios below is the most likely explanation for the divergence in results?
In the context of Freeman's (1984) study on union membership and wages, which of the following poses the MOST significant threat to the validity of fixed effects estimates, potentially explaining why they diverge from cross-sectional estimates?
In the context of Freeman's (1984) study on union membership and wages, which of the following poses the MOST significant threat to the validity of fixed effects estimates, potentially explaining why they diverge from cross-sectional estimates?
Given the limitations of fixed effects models, particularly the inability to estimate the effects of time-invariant regressors, which alternative econometric strategy BEST addresses this constraint while mitigating the endogeneity concerns often associated with union membership?
Given the limitations of fixed effects models, particularly the inability to estimate the effects of time-invariant regressors, which alternative econometric strategy BEST addresses this constraint while mitigating the endogeneity concerns often associated with union membership?
Within the framework of panel data analysis, if a researcher aims to isolate the causal impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, what critical assumption MUST hold true regarding individuals who do not change their union status over the observed period?
Within the framework of panel data analysis, if a researcher aims to isolate the causal impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, what critical assumption MUST hold true regarding individuals who do not change their union status over the observed period?
Suppose a researcher analyzing the effect of union membership on wages using fixed effects discovers that the within-individual variation in union status is minimal and highly autocorrelated. How does this scenario affect the reliability and interpretation of the estimated union wage premium?
Suppose a researcher analyzing the effect of union membership on wages using fixed effects discovers that the within-individual variation in union status is minimal and highly autocorrelated. How does this scenario affect the reliability and interpretation of the estimated union wage premium?
Consider a scenario where the true causal effect of union membership is constant across all individuals, but there exists substantial heterogeneity in unobserved individual characteristics that influence both wages and the propensity to join a union. How would the cross-sectional estimates of the union wage premium likely differ from the fixed effects estimates, and why?
Consider a scenario where the true causal effect of union membership is constant across all individuals, but there exists substantial heterogeneity in unobserved individual characteristics that influence both wages and the propensity to join a union. How would the cross-sectional estimates of the union wage premium likely differ from the fixed effects estimates, and why?
In the context of analyzing union membership's impact on wages using panel data, if a relevant time-invariant variable (e.g., parental education) is omitted from a fixed effects model, what specific econometric consequence arises, and how does it affect the interpretation of the estimated coefficients?
In the context of analyzing union membership's impact on wages using panel data, if a relevant time-invariant variable (e.g., parental education) is omitted from a fixed effects model, what specific econometric consequence arises, and how does it affect the interpretation of the estimated coefficients?
A researcher suspects that union membership is endogenous due to unobserved time-varying factors. Which of the following econometric strategies provides the MOST rigorous approach to address this endogeneity in the context of panel data with individual fixed effects?
A researcher suspects that union membership is endogenous due to unobserved time-varying factors. Which of the following econometric strategies provides the MOST rigorous approach to address this endogeneity in the context of panel data with individual fixed effects?
Suppose a researcher aims to analyze the impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, but discovers that measurement error in the union status variable is non-classical, exhibiting correlation with the true union status and other regressors. How does this type of measurement error affect the consistency and efficiency of the fixed effects estimator?
Suppose a researcher aims to analyze the impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, but discovers that measurement error in the union status variable is non-classical, exhibiting correlation with the true union status and other regressors. How does this type of measurement error affect the consistency and efficiency of the fixed effects estimator?
In the context of fixed effects estimation, if the number of time periods (T) is relatively small compared to the number of individuals (N), and the dependent variable exhibits substantial serial correlation, which econometric consideration becomes MOST critical for obtaining reliable inference about the effect of union membership on wages?
In the context of fixed effects estimation, if the number of time periods (T) is relatively small compared to the number of individuals (N), and the dependent variable exhibits substantial serial correlation, which econometric consideration becomes MOST critical for obtaining reliable inference about the effect of union membership on wages?
Suppose a researcher employing a fixed effects model finds that the estimated effect of union membership on wages diminishes substantially when including additional time-varying controls. What inference can be drawn from this finding regarding the nature of the relationship between union membership, wages, and the added controls?
Suppose a researcher employing a fixed effects model finds that the estimated effect of union membership on wages diminishes substantially when including additional time-varying controls. What inference can be drawn from this finding regarding the nature of the relationship between union membership, wages, and the added controls?
Flashcards
Individual Fixed Effects (ηᵢ)
Individual Fixed Effects (ηᵢ)
Unobserved, time-invariant factors affecting individuals.
Random Effects Model Assumption
Random Effects Model Assumption
Panel data model assuming unobserved fixed effects are independent of X variables across all time periods: E[ηᵢ | Xᵢ₁, …, Xᵢₜ] = 0
Random Effects Realism?
Random Effects Realism?
Unobserved, time-invariant factors are independent of included X variables.
Fixed Effects Model
Fixed Effects Model
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Fixed Effects: Realistic Case
Fixed Effects: Realistic Case
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Fixed Effects Model Equation
Fixed Effects Model Equation
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Fixed Effects as Dummies
Fixed Effects as Dummies
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Within Estimation
Within Estimation
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First Step of Within Estimation
First Step of Within Estimation
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Second Step of Within Estimation
Second Step of Within Estimation
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Within Estimator (𝛽መ𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛)
Within Estimator (𝛽መ𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛)
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Interpreting 𝛽 in FE Model
Interpreting 𝛽 in FE Model
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Parameters Identified in FE
Parameters Identified in FE
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Consistency in FE Model (Large T)
Consistency in FE Model (Large T)
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Consistency in FE Model (Large N)
Consistency in FE Model (Large N)
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Causal Effect Estimation
Causal Effect Estimation
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Unobserved Differences
Unobserved Differences
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“Timeless” Unobserved Differences
“Timeless” Unobserved Differences
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Fixed Effects Accuracy
Fixed Effects Accuracy
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Measurement Errors
Measurement Errors
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Fixed Effects & Error Amplification
Fixed Effects & Error Amplification
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Within-Individual Variation
Within-Individual Variation
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Time-Invariant Regressors
Time-Invariant Regressors
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Random Effects Model
Random Effects Model
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Treatment Status Change
Treatment Status Change
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Selective Samples Problem
Selective Samples Problem
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Strict Exogeneity Assumption
Strict Exogeneity Assumption
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Violation of Strict Exogeneity
Violation of Strict Exogeneity
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Fixed Effects and Group Data
Fixed Effects and Group Data
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Twins and Birth Weight
Twins and Birth Weight
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First-Differences Estimator
First-Differences Estimator
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First-Differences Equation
First-Differences Equation
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Strict Exogeneity (Formal)
Strict Exogeneity (Formal)
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Time-Specific Unobserved Shock
Time-Specific Unobserved Shock
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Conditional Independence (FE)
Conditional Independence (FE)
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( Y_{0it} )
( Y_{0it} )
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( Y_{it} )
( Y_{it} )
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( D_{it} )
( D_{it} )
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Individual ability (( A_i ))
Individual ability (( A_i ))
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Study Notes
- It is preferable to use experiments, instrumental variables (IV), or regression discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate causal effects.
- These methods may be impossible or without instruments or discontinuities to explot.
- Alternatives mitigate omitted variables that are fixed over time or space.
Fixed Effects and Panel Data Roadmap
- Fixed effects and panel data include:
- Panel data involving random vs. fixed effects.
- Fixed effects estimation with panel data.
- Pitfalls
- Fixed effects estimation with other data structures.
- Difference-in-differences includes:
- Estimation
- Pitfalls and sensitivity checks.
Panel Data and Fixed Effects
- Panel data follows outcomes and characteristics of individuals across multiple points in time.
- Panels typically have a large number of individuals (N) observed over a few time periods (T).
- Fixed effects is a way to analyze panel data and other data structures, such as family-level data or twin data, even without a time dimension.
The Simplest Case: Running Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) on Panel Data
- Panel data are analyzed by pooling observations over time and running an OLS regression, treating all observations as independent.
- The equation is represented as follows: Yit = α + Xitβ + εit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T, where N is the number of individuals and T is the number of periods.
- The pooled model provides consistent estimators for α and β if the zero conditional mean assumption E[εit|Xi1, ..., Xit] = 0 is satisfied, and violation of this assumption leads to biased and inconsistent estimators.
Panel Data Model
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The basic linear panel data model is represented by: Yit = α + Xitβ + Vit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T.
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The error term Vit is divided into two additive parts: Vit = ηi + εit, where ηi is time-invariant and εit varies over time.
The Panel Data Model: Random vs. Fixed Effects
- ηi reflects unobserved individual-specific factors that do not vary over time.
- This can include genes, early childhood environment, parental background, and personality traits.
- Assumptions about ηi determine the type of panel data model used.
- Panel data models are analyzed as either random effects models or fixed effects models.
- In the random effects model, E[ηi|Xi1, ..., Xit] = 0, meaning the unobserved time-invariant factors are independent of the X variables for all time periods.
The Panel Data Model: Fixed Effects
- The random effects assumption is similar to the zero conditional mean assumption.
- The random effects assumption says that unobserved, time-invariant factors are independent of all included X variables, which may not be the case.
- The fixed effect model relaxes the random effects assumption, allowing for correlation between ηi and the X variables: E[ηi|Xi1, ..., Xit] ≠ 0.
- Without an experiment, not all unobserved factors that are fixed over time are independent of X variables for all time periods.
- Even with this break in the zero conditional mean assumption, the fixed effects model may still provide consistent estimates of the causal effect.
The Fixed Effects Model
- The fixed-effect model is given by: Yit = α + Xitβ + ηi + εit, where Xit is a vector of exogenous regressors and εit is independent over time and across individuals.
- The fixed effects assumption does not rule out correlation between ηi and Xit, where ηi could represent unobserved ability that does not vary over time.
Estimating the Fixed Effects Model
- In the fixed effects model, ηi is constant for each individual i, resembling a "dummy" variable, where including a dummy variable for each i in the regression controls for ηi.
- There are as many ηi parameters as there are individuals, which could mean thousands of parameters to estimate.
- Even without estimating all ηi parameters, within estimation can eliminate them.
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Including a dummy variable for each i is algebraically the same as estimation in deviations from means, achieved by calculating individual-specific averages over time.
Yi = X₁B + ni + Ei - where 1T Ү₁ = ΣΕ V₁t X₁ = Xi Eit Ni 1T Et I ΣΕ 1 Uit Ni =- ΣΕ Nit - Which subtracts Y¿ from Yit: - Yit - Yi = Xitß + Ni + Eit - XiB-ni - Ei = (Xit - Xi)β + (Eit - Ei).
- This implies the specification
- Yit = Xitẞ + Eit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T
- With
- Xit = Xit - Xi
- Yit = Yit-Yi
- Eit = Eit - Ei
- The within estimator ẞwithin is obtained by applying OLS.
Interpreting the Fixed Effects Model
- Removing ηi (the fixed effects) implicitly controls for all individual-specific factors, whether observable or unobservable, that are constant over time.
- This removes a potentially large source of omitted variables bias, even without observing or measuring these individual-specific factors.
- The estimated effect, the fixed effects estimator, can be interpreted as the effect of a within-unit change in treatment, also called the within estimator.
Remarks on the Fixed Effects Estimator
- Parameters are identified due to within variation in Xit over time.
- Estimators for ηi and are consistent if asymptotics imply that T becomes large.
- With a fixed T and an N going to infinity, only the within is consistent, but is not (incidental parameters).
- If N is not too large, including dummy variables for each individual and estimating the original model by OLS provides the within estimators and î in a single step.
Alternative Method: The First-Differences Estimator
- One can use first-differences over time instead of within estimation.
- Yit - Yit-1 = Xitẞ + ηi + Eit - Xit-1B - Ni - Eit-1
- = (Xit - Xit-1)β + (Eit - Eit-1) for t = 2..., T
- ΔΥit = ΔΧitβ + Δεit, takes first-differences to eliminate from the model.
- Ordinary Least Squares performs to obtain the first-difference
Additional Assumptions Needed for the Fixed Effects or First-Difference Model
- So far, assumptions involve ηi and about i.e. unobserved factors that are allowed to vary over time?
- For both first-differences and the within estimator to provide consistent estimates, regressors must be strictly exogenous: E[Eit|Xi1, ..., Xit, ηi] = 0 for i = 1 ..., N t = 1 ..., T
Strict Exogeneity Assumption
- The strict exogeneity assumption is a version of the zero conditional mean assumption.
- The part of the error term that is allowed to vary , must be unrelated to control variables in any time.
- It would typically fail when a time-specific shock that affects both the outcome and a variable of interest.
- The effect of X on Y reflects the influence of some shock.
Fixed Effects Model: Angrist and Pischke
- The expression says that as untreated is independent of actual on covariates and time
- Union status is as randomly assigned on these words.
- If so, a consistent, if we can control for, or somehow account for
- Fixed Effects is accomplished, as is constant over time.
Freeman (1984), Returns to Union Membership
- Freeman (1984) aimed to estimate the effect of union membership on wages and it would have been best to measure each individuals potential outcome, with and without union membership.
- Could potential outcomes are obtained by members/non-members pay, where unobserved differences between members and non-members are constant over time.
Freeman (1984): Returns to Union Membership Example
- Freeman's fixed effects estimates are smaller than his cross-sectional estimates because:
- The fixed effect estimates are closer to union membership's "true" causal effect, with the effect overestimated in the cross-sectional estimates.
- There are measurement errors in the union status variable that becomes exaggerated in the model.
Pitfalls of the Fixed Effects Approach
- The measurement error problem is the fixed effects model restricts the variation.
- measurement increases.
- The downward bias from "classical" measurement error is greater effects models
- gets stronger, the stronger correlation is between the x-variables in the periods.
- Unable to estimate invariant regressors.
- Because deviation from individual-specific zero
- effects
- The effect is only change.
- Those without change contribute, by variation.
- Only the sample actually changes.
- difficult observations
Pitfalls of the Fixed Effects Approach
- Violation of the Strict Exogeneity Assumption
- It may be criticized in applications
- Selection into treatment may be based on factors E[Eit |Xi1 ..... Xir ηil0
Fixed Effects Without a Time Dimension: Exploiting Family Data (Siblings and Twins)
- The fixed effects approach does not require a time dimension, in order to cancel out the family data.
- If important unobserved variables are shared by individuals.
- This approach can be utilized, in the form of twins.
- Twins include:
- Identical twins
- Siblings
Fixed Effects with Twins Example (Bharadwaj, Lundborg, Rooth (2015)
- Research was conduct on the effects of birth weight over the life cycle by examining tole of birth and inequalities at birth.
- With data to which children payment up to counterparts.
- Identifying effect birth difficult families
- Those low families
- The key assumption the to and
- Cognition cognitive
- Effect to compensate
Example 1: Fixed Effects with Twins: Specification
- Specification dataSweden 1926-1958 data
- Data incomes
- Yijt + Nj log pair birth
- The fixed the the Environmental
Critical Periods: Cognitive skills and health
- Very to circumstances skills
- To Romanian who parents
- Reflect adoption
Critical Periods: Development cognitive skills and health (Van den Berg et al. (2014))
- Sweden
- Sweden ages.
- By by stages may be to in height
Critical periods
- By out
- Factors factors level!
- Brother selection level!
Summary fixed effects
- Types
- Or Space
- Account Space)
- On Twin
Appendix: Panel Data
- If estimators
- model.
- If the
- If exogeneity estimator limits
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