Fixed Effects and Panel Data

Choose a study mode

Play Quiz
Study Flashcards
Spaced Repetition
Chat to Lesson

Podcast

Play an AI-generated podcast conversation about this lesson
Download our mobile app to listen on the go
Get App

Questions and Answers

Within the context of fixed effects models, which statement best characterizes the consequence of employing 'within estimation' techniques?

  • It eliminates the need for differencing by consistently estimating $β$ even when the number of time periods, $T$, is fixed and the number of individuals, $N$, approaches infinity, albeit at the cost of inconsistent $η_i$ estimation. (correct)
  • It preconditions consistent estimation of $β$ on consistent estimation of $η_i$, requiring that $T$ approaches infinity to mitigate incidental parameters bias.
  • It allows for consistent estimation of both $β$ and $η_i$ irrespective of whether $T → ∞$ or $N → ∞$, provided that the regressors are strictly exogenous.
  • It necessitates the estimation of $η_i$ parameters only when both $N$ and $T$ are small, thereby alleviating computational burdens associated with large panel datasets.

Consider a panel data model where $Y_{it}$ represents individual $i$'s outcome at time $t$, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying covariate, $\eta_i$ represents time-invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is an idiosyncratic error term. Under what condition would estimating a random effects model be preferred over a fixed effects model, assuming the primary goal is to obtain consistent estimates of the effect of $X_{it}$ on $Y_{it}$?

  • When heteroskedasticity is present in the error term $\epsilon_{it}$, but autocorrelation is absent.
  • When the correlation between $X_{it}$ and $\eta_i$ is non-zero, and the sample size $N$ (number of individuals) is small relative to $T$ (number of time periods).
  • When the exogeneity assumption $E[\eta_i | X_{i1}, ..., X_{iT}] = 0$ holds approximately, and the primary interest is in estimating the effects of time-invariant variables. (correct)
  • When it is suspected that endogeneity exists due to omitted time-varying variables.

In a fixed effects model, consider a scenario where the number of individuals ($N$) greatly exceeds the number of time periods ($T$). If one were to estimate the model by including dummy variables for each individual, what is the most pertinent concern regarding the consistency of the estimators?

  • While the estimator for $β$ remains consistent, the estimator for $η_i$ becomes inconsistent as $N$ grows, leading to biased inference on individual-specific effects.
  • The estimator for $β$ will be inconsistent unless $N$ also tends to infinity due to the curse of dimensionality.
  • The estimators for both $β$ and $η_i$ are consistent because the inclusion of dummy variables effectively addresses any omitted variable bias, regardless of the relative magnitudes of $N$ and $T$.
  • Both the estimators for $β$ and $η_i$ will be inconsistent due to the incidental parameters problem if $T$ is fixed. (correct)

Suppose a researcher posits that the effect of education on wages is mediated by unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics. Within a fixed effects framework, how should the estimated coefficient on education ($X_{it}$) be interpreted?

<p>It exclusively reflects the impact of within-unit variations in education on wages, implicitly controlling for all time-constant individual-specific attributes, whether observable or unobservable. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a panel data setting, a researcher aims to estimate the impact of a time-varying treatment, $T_{it}$, on an outcome variable, $Y_{it}$. The researcher suspects that there are unobserved, time-invariant confounders, $\eta_i$, that are correlated with both the treatment and the outcome. However, the researcher is particularly interested in making inferences about the population-level average treatment effect. Which of the following considerations is most critical for determining whether a fixed effects or random effects estimator is more appropriate?

<p>The nature of the policy question: whether the relevant inferences pertain to the effects within specific groups or to population-averaged effects, given potential violations of the random effects assumption. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the fixed effects transformation $Y_{it} - \overline{Y_i} = (X_{it} - \overline{X_i})β + (ε_{it} - \overline{ε_i})$, what critical assumption must hold for the within estimator $β̂_{within}$ obtained via OLS to be unbiased and consistent?

<p>The transformed error term, $(ε_{it} - \overline{ε_i})$, must be conditionally mean-independent of the transformed regressor, $(X_{it} - \overline{X_i})$. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a researcher using panel data to estimate the effect of job training programs ($X_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). The researcher is concerned that individuals with higher unobserved ability ($\eta_i$) are more likely to participate in job training programs and also tend to have higher wages, even without the training. In this scenario, which statement most accurately describes the potential consequences of using a random effects model and a fixed effects model?

<p>The random effects model will likely produce biased estimates due to the correlation between $X_{it}$ and $\eta_i$, while the fixed effects model will provide consistent estimates by eliminating the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given a panel data model $Y_{it} = \alpha + X_{it}\beta + \eta_i + \epsilon_{it}$, where $Y_{it}$ is the outcome, $X_{it}$ is a time-varying regressor, $\eta_i$ is an individual-specific effect, and $\epsilon_{it}$ is the error term, under what specific condition is the fixed effects estimator equivalent to the first-difference estimator?

<p>When the panel dataset is balanced and the number of time periods, $T$, is equal to 2. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a panel dataset where $Y_{it}$ represents income, $X_{it}$ represents years of schooling, $η_i$ captures time-invariant individual heterogeneity, and $ε_{it}$ is the error term. If you suspect that $η_i$ is correlated with $X_{it}$, what is the most appropriate estimation strategy to consistently estimate the effect of schooling on income?

<p>Employ a fixed effects model by either including individual dummy variables or using the within transformation to eliminate $η_i$, thus addressing the potential endogeneity. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher analyzes the impact of a new environmental regulation ($X_{it}$) on firm profitability ($Y_{it}$) using firm-level panel data. The researcher is concerned about unobserved, time-invariant firm-specific factors (e.g., managerial quality, geographical location) that might confound the analysis. What is the most compelling reason to favor a fixed effects (FE) estimator over a pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator in this scenario?

<p>FE explicitly accounts for time-invariant firm heterogeneity, thus mitigating potential omitted variable bias arising from unobserved characteristics. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of dynamic panel data models, where lagged values of the dependent variable are included as regressors, what econometric issue arises, and how does the Arellano-Bond estimator address it differently from traditional fixed effects or random effects approaches?

<p>The issue of endogeneity caused by the correlation between the lagged dependent variable and the error term due to the presence of fixed effects; the Arellano-Bond estimator uses a GMM approach that exploits lagged levels of the variables as instruments for first-differenced variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Assuming that the true model is a fixed effects model, what are the consequences of estimating a pooled OLS model instead?

<p>Biased and inconsistent estimates if the individual fixed effects are correlated with the other regressors. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and suspects that the error term, $\epsilon_{it}$, is serially correlated. What are the implications of ignoring this serial correlation for inference, and which of the following methods would appropriately address this issue?

<p>Ignoring serial correlation leads to downward-biased standard errors, resulting in over-rejection of the null hypothesis. Using clustered standard errors at the individual level would provide valid inference. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of estimating causal effects with panel data, a researcher uses a fixed effects model to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, they are concerned that there might be time-varying unobserved confounders that are correlated with both the treatment variable and the outcome. Which of the following strategies would be most appropriate to address this concern?

<p>Employing an instrumental variable approach, where the instrument is correlated with the treatment but uncorrelated with the time-varying unobserved confounders, conditional on the included covariates and fixed effects. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What conditions must be met for the parameters ( \beta ) in a fixed effects model to be identified?

<p>There must be within variation in ( X_{it} ) over time. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If implementing a within estimator, how can one calculate the individual-specific averages over time?

<p>Calculate the mean for each individual over time. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of applying fixed effects (FE) models, particularly when analyzing twins, consider a scenario where the assumption of strict exogeneity is violated due to time-varying unobserved confounders affecting both birth weight ($X_{it}$) and later-life outcomes. Given this violation, which econometric strategy would MOST rigorously address the resulting bias in the FE estimate of birth weight's impact, assuming access to extensive longitudinal data and computational resources?

<p>Utilize a dynamic panel data model with a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, instrumenting lagged levels of birth weight with lagged differences and vice versa to address both endogeneity and potential serial correlation in the error term. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When employing a fixed effects model using sibling data to estimate the impact of a specific educational intervention, the identifying assumption is that unobserved family-level factors are controlled for. Assume you discover that the intervention's effect significantly differs based on the gender composition within the sibling pairs. What econometric modification would MOST effectively address this heterogeneity while still leveraging the fixed effects framework?

<p>Interact the treatment variable with a dummy variable indicating whether the sibling pair is same-sex or mixed-sex, allowing for differential treatment effects based on gender composition. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study examining the effect of early childhood health, proxied by birth weight, on adult earnings using a twins fixed-effects model, researchers discover evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects linked to the twins' zygosity (identical vs. fraternal). Specifically, the effect of birth weight on earnings appears stronger in monozygotic twins compared to dizygotic twins. Which statistical approach BEST addresses the complications arising from this finding?

<p>Augment the twins fixed-effects model with an interaction term between birth weight and a dummy variable indicating monozygosity, allowing for differential effects of birth weight based on zygosity. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where you are using fixed effects to estimate the causal impact of a policy change on individuals nested within firms but you suspect that firms anticipate and strategically respond to the policy change before its official implementation, creating a “pre-treatment” effect that varies across firms based on their individual characteristics. This anticipation violates the assumptions underlying standard fixed effects estimation. Which advanced econometric technique would be most appropriate to address this form of endogeneity?

<p>Difference-in-Differences (DID) with lead effects, incorporating leads of the policy variable to test for and quantify pre-treatment effects and adjust the estimation accordingly. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study employing a fixed effects model to analyze the impact of a new technology adoption on firm productivity, you discover that the error term exhibits significant serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Moreover, you suspect that the technology adoption decision is endogenous, influenced by unobserved firm-specific characteristics that also affect productivity. Which estimation technique would MOST comprehensively address these econometric challenges?

<p>Two-Step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, instrumenting the technology adoption decision with external instruments and employing a weighting matrix robust to serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under what specific condition does the first-difference estimator consistently estimate $\beta$ in the model $\Delta Y_{it} = \Delta X_{it} \beta + \Delta \epsilon_{it}$?

<p>When the regressors $X_{it}$ are strictly exogenous, implying $E[\epsilon_{it} | X_{i1}, ..., X_{iT}, \eta_i] = 0$ for all $i$ and $t$, and there is no heteroscedasticity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where an unobserved time-specific shock affects both the outcome variable $Y$ and the regressor of interest $X$. How does this situation specifically violate the assumptions required for consistent estimation in fixed effects or first-difference models?

<p>It directly violates the strict exogeneity assumption, $E[\epsilon_{it} | X_{i1}, ..., X_{iT}, \eta_i] = 0$, because the shock introduces a correlation between the error term and the regressors across time periods. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of Angrist and Pischke's potential outcomes framework, what is the precise interpretation of the statement $E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t, D_{it}) = E(Y_{0t} | A_i; X_{it}, t)$?

<p>Potential outcomes when untreated are independent of actual treatment status, conditional on unobserved worker ability, observed covariates, and time. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under what key condition, according to the fixed effects model, can we consistently estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment ($D_{it}$) on an outcome ($Y_{it}$), even in the presence of unobserved individual-specific factors ($A_i$)?

<p>When the unobserved individual-specific factors ($A_i$) are constant over time. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose you are analyzing the impact of a new environmental regulation on firm productivity using a fixed effects model. Your data include firm-level productivity, regulatory compliance status, and other firm characteristics over ten years. However, you suspect that firms anticipated the regulation and started changing their production processes before it was officially implemented. How would this anticipation specifically affect the validity of your fixed effects estimates?

<p>This violates the strict exogeneity assumption, because the firm's anticipation leads to a correlation between current regulatory compliance and past error terms. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a panel dataset where you are examining the effect of a job training program ($D_{it}$) on individual wages ($Y_{it}$). You are concerned about unobserved individual heterogeneity ($A_i$) and time-varying shocks. If the error term ($u_{it}$) in your fixed effects model exhibits positive serial correlation, what is the most likely consequence for your inference about the effect of the job training program?

<p>The estimated standard errors will be deflated, leading to anti-conservative inference (i.e., rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a fixed effects regression framework, suppose you are estimating the impact of changes in state-level minimum wage laws ($X_{it}$) on employment ($Y_{it}$). You include state fixed effects to account for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. However, you are worried that unobserved, state-specific economic shocks that coincide with minimum wage changes might bias your results. Which of the following strategies would best address this concern?

<p>Include state-specific time trends to control for linear, state-specific economic changes. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

You are using a first-difference estimator to examine the effect of changes in air pollution levels ($\Delta X_{it}$) on respiratory health outcomes ($\Delta Y_{it}$). However, suppose that individuals who are more susceptible to respiratory illnesses are more likely to move to areas with lower air pollution. How does this endogenous mobility affect the validity of your first-difference estimates?

<p>It leads to biased estimates of the effect of air pollution, because the change in air pollution levels is correlated with the change in unobserved health factors. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher is using a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of access to broadband internet ($D_{it}$) on student test scores ($Y_{it}$). The researcher finds a positive and statistically significant effect. However, a reviewer points out that families with higher socioeconomic status are both more likely to have broadband internet and to invest more in their children's education in other ways, and that these investments may change over time along with broadband adoption. How does this critique specifically challenge the causal interpretation of the estimated effect of broadband internet on test scores?

<p>It suggests that the estimated effect may be spurious, because changes in broadband access are correlated with changes in other unobserved determinants of student achievement. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of a panel data analysis, a researcher estimates a fixed effects model and a first-difference model to assess the impact of a policy change. The estimated coefficient of interest differs substantially between the two models. Assuming both models are correctly specified in other respects, which of the scenarios below is the most likely explanation for the divergence in results?

<p>There are time-varying confounders not fully captured by the included control variables. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of Freeman's (1984) study on union membership and wages, which of the following poses the MOST significant threat to the validity of fixed effects estimates, potentially explaining why they diverge from cross-sectional estimates?

<p>The attenuation bias induced by measurement error in the union status variable, exacerbated by the within-individual variation focus of fixed effects, particularly when union status exhibits high autocorrelation across time. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the limitations of fixed effects models, particularly the inability to estimate the effects of time-invariant regressors, which alternative econometric strategy BEST addresses this constraint while mitigating the endogeneity concerns often associated with union membership?

<p>Utilizing a Mundlak's approach to approximate correlated random effects by including the group means of time varying variables in the random effect model. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Within the framework of panel data analysis, if a researcher aims to isolate the causal impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, what critical assumption MUST hold true regarding individuals who do not change their union status over the observed period?

<p>Their observed wage trajectories contribute negligibly to estimating the within-individual effect of union membership. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose a researcher analyzing the effect of union membership on wages using fixed effects discovers that the within-individual variation in union status is minimal and highly autocorrelated. How does this scenario affect the reliability and interpretation of the estimated union wage premium?

<p>It exacerbates the downward bias induced by classical measurement error, making it difficult to disentangle the true effect from noise. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where the true causal effect of union membership is constant across all individuals, but there exists substantial heterogeneity in unobserved individual characteristics that influence both wages and the propensity to join a union. How would the cross-sectional estimates of the union wage premium likely differ from the fixed effects estimates, and why?

<p>Cross-sectional estimates would be larger and potentially biased upwards due to omitted variable bias, while fixed effects estimates would mitigate this bias by controlling for time-invariant individual heterogeneity. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of analyzing union membership's impact on wages using panel data, if a relevant time-invariant variable (e.g., parental education) is omitted from a fixed effects model, what specific econometric consequence arises, and how does it affect the interpretation of the estimated coefficients?

<p>Omission of a time-invariant variable does not affect fixed effects estimates because the model inherently eliminates time-invariant effects by demeaning. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher suspects that union membership is endogenous due to unobserved time-varying factors. Which of the following econometric strategies provides the MOST rigorous approach to address this endogeneity in the context of panel data with individual fixed effects?

<p>Implementing a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator that utilizes lagged levels and differences of the endogenous variable as instruments. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose a researcher aims to analyze the impact of union membership on wages using a fixed effects model, but discovers that measurement error in the union status variable is non-classical, exhibiting correlation with the true union status and other regressors. How does this type of measurement error affect the consistency and efficiency of the fixed effects estimator?

<p>Non-classical measurement error results in biased and inconsistent estimates, and the direction of the bias depends on the specific correlation structure. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of fixed effects estimation, if the number of time periods (T) is relatively small compared to the number of individuals (N), and the dependent variable exhibits substantial serial correlation, which econometric consideration becomes MOST critical for obtaining reliable inference about the effect of union membership on wages?

<p>Applying a robust variance-covariance matrix estimator that is cluster-corrected for the within-individual correlation over time. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose a researcher employing a fixed effects model finds that the estimated effect of union membership on wages diminishes substantially when including additional time-varying controls. What inference can be drawn from this finding regarding the nature of the relationship between union membership, wages, and the added controls?

<p>The added controls are likely mediators of the relationship between union membership and wages, indicating that the initial estimate captured both the direct and indirect effects of unionization. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Individual Fixed Effects (ηᵢ)

Unobserved, time-invariant factors affecting individuals.

Random Effects Model Assumption

Panel data model assuming unobserved fixed effects are independent of X variables across all time periods: E[ηᵢ | Xᵢ₁, …, Xᵢₜ] = 0

Random Effects Realism?

Unobserved, time-invariant factors are independent of included X variables.

Fixed Effects Model

The panel data model that allows for correlation between unobserved fixed effects and X variables: E[ηᵢ | Xᵢ₁, …, Xᵢₜ] ≠ 0

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects: Realistic Case

More realistic when unobserved factors (e.g., ability) likely correlate with X variables.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects Model Equation

𝑌ᵢₜ = α + 𝑋ᵢₜβ + ηᵢ + εᵢₜ, where ηᵢ is time-invariant and potentially correlated with 𝑋ᵢₜ.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects as Dummies

Each 𝜂𝑖 acts as an individual-specific constant or 'dummy' variable.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Within Estimation

A method to eliminate fixed effects (𝜂𝑖) by transforming the data.

Signup and view all the flashcards

First Step of Within Estimation

Calculate individual-specific averages over time for both dependent and independent variables.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Second Step of Within Estimation

Subtract individual-specific averages from the original data. (𝑌𝑖𝑡 − 𝑌𝑖)

Signup and view all the flashcards

Within Estimator (𝛽መ𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛)

Applying OLS on transformed data, where fixed effects are removed.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Interpreting 𝛽 in FE Model

Effect of a change in treatment within the same individual/unit over time.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Parameters Identified in FE

Estimates the effect of time-varying variables (𝑋𝑖𝑡) on the outcome.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Consistency in FE Model (Large T)

Estimator is consistent as the number of time periods (T) becomes large.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Consistency in FE Model (Large N)

Estimator is consistent when number of individuals (N) goes to infinity, but 𝜂𝑖 is not.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Causal Effect Estimation

Estimating the effect of a variable (e.g., union membership) on an outcome (e.g., wages).

Signup and view all the flashcards

Unobserved Differences

Differences between groups (e.g., union members vs. non-members) that are not observed but affect the outcome.

Signup and view all the flashcards

“Timeless” Unobserved Differences

The idea that time-invariant unobserved characteristics of individuals don't change.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects Accuracy

Fixed effects estimates being closer to the true causal effect than cross-sectional estimates.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Measurement Errors

Errors in measuring the independent variable (e.g., union status).

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects & Error Amplification

Measurement errors can be amplified in fixed effects models.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Within-Individual Variation

Fixed effects models restrict the variation in independent variables to within individuals.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Time-Invariant Regressors

You cannot estimate the effect of variables that do not change over time for each individual.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Random Effects Model

A panel data model that assumes that the unobserved effect is uncorrelated with the independent variables.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Treatment Status Change

The effect is only identified for individuals who change treatment status during the observation period.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Selective Samples Problem

Samples changing status may not be representative, leading to discrepancies between OLS and FE estimates.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Strict Exogeneity Assumption

Assumption that error term is uncorrelated with past, present, and future values of the explanatory variables.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Violation of Strict Exogeneity

Selection into treatment may depend on unobserved, time-varying factors (shocks), violating strict exogeneity.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Fixed Effects and Group Data

A method that controls for shared, unobserved variables within groups (e.g., twins, siblings) even without a time dimension.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Twins and Birth Weight

Compares outcomes of twins with different birth weights to isolate the effect of birth weight, controlling for shared family factors.

Signup and view all the flashcards

First-Differences Estimator

An alternative to within estimation that eliminates ( \eta_i ) by using changes over time.

Signup and view all the flashcards

First-Differences Equation

Δ𝑌ᵢₜ = Δ𝑋ᵢₜ β + Δεᵢₜ, where first-differencing removes the individual fixed effect ( \eta_i ).

Signup and view all the flashcards

Strict Exogeneity (Formal)

𝐸[εᵢₜ | 𝑋ᵢ₁, …, 𝑋ᵢₜ, ηᵢ] = 0. The error term's time-varying part (εᵢₜ) is unrelated to X in any period.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Time-Specific Unobserved Shock

An unobserved shock affecting both the outcome (Y) and the variable of interest (X).

Signup and view all the flashcards

Conditional Independence (FE)

Potential outcome as untreated is independent of actual treatment status given unobserved worker ability, other observed covariates, and time.

Signup and view all the flashcards

( Y_{0it} )

Potential earnings of worker ( i ) at time ( t ) if they are not in a union.

Signup and view all the flashcards

( Y_{it} )

Observed earnings of worker ( i ) at time ( t ), which is either ( Y_{0it} ) or ( Y_{1it} ) depending on union status.

Signup and view all the flashcards

( D_{it} )

An indicator variable denoting if worker ( i ) is in a union at time ( t ).

Signup and view all the flashcards

Individual ability (( A_i ))

Unobserved worker ability, constant over time. Critical to control for in wage analysis.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Study Notes

  • It is preferable to use experiments, instrumental variables (IV), or regression discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate causal effects.
  • These methods may be impossible or without instruments or discontinuities to explot.
  • Alternatives mitigate omitted variables that are fixed over time or space.

Fixed Effects and Panel Data Roadmap

  • Fixed effects and panel data include:
    • Panel data involving random vs. fixed effects.
    • Fixed effects estimation with panel data.
    • Pitfalls
    • Fixed effects estimation with other data structures.
  • Difference-in-differences includes:
    • Estimation
    • Pitfalls and sensitivity checks.

Panel Data and Fixed Effects

  • Panel data follows outcomes and characteristics of individuals across multiple points in time.
  • Panels typically have a large number of individuals (N) observed over a few time periods (T).
  • Fixed effects is a way to analyze panel data and other data structures, such as family-level data or twin data, even without a time dimension.

The Simplest Case: Running Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) on Panel Data

  • Panel data are analyzed by pooling observations over time and running an OLS regression, treating all observations as independent.
  • The equation is represented as follows: Yit = α + Xitβ + εit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T, where N is the number of individuals and T is the number of periods.
  • The pooled model provides consistent estimators for α and β if the zero conditional mean assumption E[εit|Xi1, ..., Xit] = 0 is satisfied, and violation of this assumption leads to biased and inconsistent estimators.

Panel Data Model

  • The basic linear panel data model is represented by: Yit = α + Xitβ + Vit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T.

  • The error term Vit is divided into two additive parts: Vit = ηi + εit, where ηi is time-invariant and εit varies over time.

The Panel Data Model: Random vs. Fixed Effects

  • ηi reflects unobserved individual-specific factors that do not vary over time.
    • This can include genes, early childhood environment, parental background, and personality traits.
  • Assumptions about ηi determine the type of panel data model used.
  • Panel data models are analyzed as either random effects models or fixed effects models.
  • In the random effects model, E[ηi|Xi1, ..., Xit] = 0, meaning the unobserved time-invariant factors are independent of the X variables for all time periods.

The Panel Data Model: Fixed Effects

  • The random effects assumption is similar to the zero conditional mean assumption.
  • The random effects assumption says that unobserved, time-invariant factors are independent of all included X variables, which may not be the case.
  • The fixed effect model relaxes the random effects assumption, allowing for correlation between ηi and the X variables: E[ηi|Xi1, ..., Xit] ≠ 0.
  • Without an experiment, not all unobserved factors that are fixed over time are independent of X variables for all time periods.
  • Even with this break in the zero conditional mean assumption, the fixed effects model may still provide consistent estimates of the causal effect.

The Fixed Effects Model

  • The fixed-effect model is given by: Yit = α + Xitβ + ηi + εit, where Xit is a vector of exogenous regressors and εit is independent over time and across individuals.
  • The fixed effects assumption does not rule out correlation between ηi and Xit, where ηi could represent unobserved ability that does not vary over time.

Estimating the Fixed Effects Model

  • In the fixed effects model, ηi is constant for each individual i, resembling a "dummy" variable, where including a dummy variable for each i in the regression controls for ηi.
  • There are as many ηi parameters as there are individuals, which could mean thousands of parameters to estimate.
  • Even without estimating all ηi parameters, within estimation can eliminate them.
  • Including a dummy variable for each i is algebraically the same as estimation in deviations from means, achieved by calculating individual-specific averages over time.

Yi = X₁B + ni + Ei - where 1T Ү₁ = ΣΕ V₁t X₁ = Xi Eit Ni 1T Et I ΣΕ 1 Uit Ni =- ΣΕ Nit - Which subtracts Y¿ from Yit: - Yit - Yi = Xitß + Ni + Eit - XiB-ni - Ei = (Xit - Xi)β + (Eit - Ei).

  • This implies the specification
    • Yit = Xitẞ + Eit for i = 1, ..., N and t = 1, ..., T
  • With
    • Xit = Xit - Xi
    • Yit = Yit-Yi
    • Eit = Eit - Ei
  • The within estimator ẞwithin is obtained by applying OLS.

Interpreting the Fixed Effects Model

  • Removing ηi (the fixed effects) implicitly controls for all individual-specific factors, whether observable or unobservable, that are constant over time.
  • This removes a potentially large source of omitted variables bias, even without observing or measuring these individual-specific factors.
  • The estimated effect, the fixed effects estimator, can be interpreted as the effect of a within-unit change in treatment, also called the within estimator.

Remarks on the Fixed Effects Estimator

  • Parameters are identified due to within variation in Xit over time.
  • Estimators for ηi and are consistent if asymptotics imply that T becomes large.
  • With a fixed T and an N going to infinity, only the within is consistent, but is not (incidental parameters).
  • If N is not too large, including dummy variables for each individual and estimating the original model by OLS provides the within estimators and î in a single step.

Alternative Method: The First-Differences Estimator

  • One can use first-differences over time instead of within estimation.
    • Yit - Yit-1 = Xitẞ + ηi + Eit - Xit-1B - Ni - Eit-1
    • = (Xit - Xit-1)β + (Eit - Eit-1) for t = 2..., T
  • ΔΥit = ΔΧitβ + Δεit, takes first-differences to eliminate from the model.
  • Ordinary Least Squares performs to obtain the first-difference

Additional Assumptions Needed for the Fixed Effects or First-Difference Model

  • So far, assumptions involve ηi and about i.e. unobserved factors that are allowed to vary over time?
  • For both first-differences and the within estimator to provide consistent estimates, regressors must be strictly exogenous: E[Eit|Xi1, ..., Xit, ηi] = 0 for i = 1 ..., N t = 1 ..., T

Strict Exogeneity Assumption

  • The strict exogeneity assumption is a version of the zero conditional mean assumption.
  • The part of the error term that is allowed to vary , must be unrelated to control variables in any time.
  • It would typically fail when a time-specific shock that affects both the outcome and a variable of interest.
  • The effect of X on Y reflects the influence of some shock.

Fixed Effects Model: Angrist and Pischke

  • The expression says that as untreated is independent of actual on covariates and time
  • Union status is as randomly assigned on these words.
  • If so, a consistent, if we can control for, or somehow account for
  • Fixed Effects is accomplished, as is constant over time.

Freeman (1984), Returns to Union Membership

  • Freeman (1984) aimed to estimate the effect of union membership on wages and it would have been best to measure each individuals potential outcome, with and without union membership.
  • Could potential outcomes are obtained by members/non-members pay, where unobserved differences between members and non-members are constant over time.

Freeman (1984): Returns to Union Membership Example

  • Freeman's fixed effects estimates are smaller than his cross-sectional estimates because:
    • The fixed effect estimates are closer to union membership's "true" causal effect, with the effect overestimated in the cross-sectional estimates.
    • There are measurement errors in the union status variable that becomes exaggerated in the model.

Pitfalls of the Fixed Effects Approach

  • The measurement error problem is the fixed effects model restricts the variation.
  • measurement increases.
  • The downward bias from "classical" measurement error is greater effects models
  • gets stronger, the stronger correlation is between the x-variables in the periods.
  • Unable to estimate invariant regressors.
  • Because deviation from individual-specific zero
  • effects
  • The effect is only change.
  • Those without change contribute, by variation.
  • Only the sample actually changes.
  • difficult observations

Pitfalls of the Fixed Effects Approach

  • Violation of the Strict Exogeneity Assumption
    • It may be criticized in applications
    • Selection into treatment may be based on factors E[Eit |Xi1 ..... Xir ηil0

Fixed Effects Without a Time Dimension: Exploiting Family Data (Siblings and Twins)

  • The fixed effects approach does not require a time dimension, in order to cancel out the family data.
  • If important unobserved variables are shared by individuals.
  • This approach can be utilized, in the form of twins.
  • Twins include:
    • Identical twins
    • Siblings

Fixed Effects with Twins Example (Bharadwaj, Lundborg, Rooth (2015)

  • Research was conduct on the effects of birth weight over the life cycle by examining tole of birth and inequalities at birth.
  • With data to which children payment up to counterparts.
  • Identifying effect birth difficult families
  • Those low families
  • The key assumption the to and
  • Cognition cognitive
  • Effect to compensate

Example 1: Fixed Effects with Twins: Specification

  • Specification dataSweden 1926-1958 data
  • Data incomes
  • Yijt + Nj log pair birth
  • The fixed the the Environmental

Critical Periods: Cognitive skills and health

  • Very to circumstances skills
  • To Romanian who parents
  • Reflect adoption

Critical Periods: Development cognitive skills and health (Van den Berg et al. (2014))

  • Sweden
  • Sweden ages.
  • By by stages may be to in height

Critical periods

  • By out
  • Factors factors level!
  • Brother selection level!

Summary fixed effects

  • Types
  • Or Space
  • Account Space)
  • On Twin

Appendix: Panel Data

  • If estimators
  • model.
  • If the
  • If exogeneity estimator limits

Studying That Suits You

Use AI to generate personalized quizzes and flashcards to suit your learning preferences.

Quiz Team

Related Documents

More Like This

Use Quizgecko on...
Browser
Browser