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Questions and Answers
What are two key risks associated with investing in non-dollar-denominated bonds?
What are two key risks associated with investing in non-dollar-denominated bonds?
Interest rate risk and exchange rate risk are two key risks.
How can political risk negatively impact investments in foreign bonds?
How can political risk negatively impact investments in foreign bonds?
Political risk can lead to government actions like expropriation or changing tax laws, reducing bond value.
Name a method to measure political risk when considering an investment.
Name a method to measure political risk when considering an investment.
Political risk can be measured using subjective and economic factors.
What is one strategy for managing political risk in investments?
What is one strategy for managing political risk in investments?
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What is an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) and its purpose for investors?
What is an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) and its purpose for investors?
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How can geographic diversification serve as a hedge against investment risk?
How can geographic diversification serve as a hedge against investment risk?
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What is the current state of exchange rate arrangements and what future direction might they take?
What is the current state of exchange rate arrangements and what future direction might they take?
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Why might individual investors choose to invest in international mutual funds rather than direct foreign stocks?
Why might individual investors choose to invest in international mutual funds rather than direct foreign stocks?
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Summarize one reason that could support borderless investing.
Summarize one reason that could support borderless investing.
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List some fundamental factors that influence the choice of an exchange rate arrangement.
List some fundamental factors that influence the choice of an exchange rate arrangement.
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Why might a global currency like GLOBALL not be a viable exchange rate arrangement?
Why might a global currency like GLOBALL not be a viable exchange rate arrangement?
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What is the expected impact on the U.S. dollar if foreign government interest rates rise above U.S. rates?
What is the expected impact on the U.S. dollar if foreign government interest rates rise above U.S. rates?
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Describe the components of the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar.
Describe the components of the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar.
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Does the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar face a stationarity problem?
Does the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar face a stationarity problem?
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What role does trade concentration play in determining exchange rate arrangements?
What role does trade concentration play in determining exchange rate arrangements?
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How might inflation differentials impact a country's exchange rate policy?
How might inflation differentials impact a country's exchange rate policy?
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What happens to the A$/$ exchange rate after a 5% reduction in the money supply and a rise in short-term interest rates from 10% to 10.5%?
What happens to the A$/$ exchange rate after a 5% reduction in the money supply and a rise in short-term interest rates from 10% to 10.5%?
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List two additional variables that should be included in the exchange rate model and explain why.
List two additional variables that should be included in the exchange rate model and explain why.
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What is the calculated purchasing power parity (PPP) deviation for the Yen-Euro relationship?
What is the calculated purchasing power parity (PPP) deviation for the Yen-Euro relationship?
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How does an increasing money supply affect the Euro in relation to the Yen?
How does an increasing money supply affect the Euro in relation to the Yen?
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Based on the rise in wages, what is the expected effect on the Japanese economy?
Based on the rise in wages, what is the expected effect on the Japanese economy?
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What is the formula used to compute the three-month ¥/€ forward rate?
What is the formula used to compute the three-month ¥/€ forward rate?
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Identify one potential pressure on the exchange rate that can be derived from the economic indicators.
Identify one potential pressure on the exchange rate that can be derived from the economic indicators.
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What role do historical exchange rates play in predicting future exchange rate movements?
What role do historical exchange rates play in predicting future exchange rate movements?
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What is foreign exchange risk and how can firms mitigate it?
What is foreign exchange risk and how can firms mitigate it?
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Define political risk and provide an example of how it can affect investments.
Define political risk and provide an example of how it can affect investments.
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In what situations might a domestic firm be exposed to foreign exchange risks?
In what situations might a domestic firm be exposed to foreign exchange risks?
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What are the reasons firms engage in foreign direct investment (FDI)?
What are the reasons firms engage in foreign direct investment (FDI)?
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How does the ICAPM model differ from the domestic CAPM?
How does the ICAPM model differ from the domestic CAPM?
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What strategies can firms use to manage foreign political risks?
What strategies can firms use to manage foreign political risks?
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Explain the concept of currency exposures and why they are significant for asset returns.
Explain the concept of currency exposures and why they are significant for asset returns.
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What is the role of risk premiums in the context of global investments?
What is the role of risk premiums in the context of global investments?
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What is social capital and why is it considered important in economic contexts?
What is social capital and why is it considered important in economic contexts?
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Discuss how social capital can impact foreign direct investment (FDI).
Discuss how social capital can impact foreign direct investment (FDI).
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How does Bitcoin's price determination differ from traditional currencies?
How does Bitcoin's price determination differ from traditional currencies?
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What are the risks associated with investing in Bitcoin?
What are the risks associated with investing in Bitcoin?
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In what ways can social capital lead to political stability?
In what ways can social capital lead to political stability?
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Why might social capital be less significant in competitive industries with tight margins?
Why might social capital be less significant in competitive industries with tight margins?
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What advantages does Bitcoin provide compared to traditional fiat currencies?
What advantages does Bitcoin provide compared to traditional fiat currencies?
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Explain how trust in financial industries relates to social capital.
Explain how trust in financial industries relates to social capital.
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What formula is used to calculate the Expected Spot Rate based on inflation differentials?
What formula is used to calculate the Expected Spot Rate based on inflation differentials?
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Given a current spot rate of 0.158, what is the expected spot rate when South African inflation is 5% and U.S. inflation is 7% over 4 years?
Given a current spot rate of 0.158, what is the expected spot rate when South African inflation is 5% and U.S. inflation is 7% over 4 years?
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What are some factors that likely contribute to the high interest rates in Turkey?
What are some factors that likely contribute to the high interest rates in Turkey?
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Using the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), what is the predicted depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar based on the given interest rates?
Using the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), what is the predicted depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar based on the given interest rates?
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If a euro-based investor initially invested 10,000 euros to buy Microsoft shares, what was the dollar amount equivalent at an exchange rate of $1.15 per euro?
If a euro-based investor initially invested 10,000 euros to buy Microsoft shares, what was the dollar amount equivalent at an exchange rate of $1.15 per euro?
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How much did the investor receive in euros after selling Microsoft shares for $135 each and converting at an exchange rate of $1.06 per euro?
How much did the investor receive in euros after selling Microsoft shares for $135 each and converting at an exchange rate of $1.06 per euro?
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What is the total return on the investment in euro terms, if the initial investment was 10,000 euros?
What is the total return on the investment in euro terms, if the initial investment was 10,000 euros?
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How much of the total return was attributed to exchange rate movement in the investment example provided?
How much of the total return was attributed to exchange rate movement in the investment example provided?
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Study Notes
Exchange Rate Arrangements
- Current exchange rate arrangements are a hybrid system
- Major currencies float on a managed basis
- Other currencies have pegged arrangements
- Future direction is towards a flexible system with floating currencies and others pegged
Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Choices
- Country size (GDP)
- Degree of openness
- Trade concentration
- Inflation differentials between countries and main trading partners
- Types of economic shocks
Global Currency (GLOBALL) Viability
- A global currency like GLOBALL might not be viable
- It requires all countries to relinquish control over monetary policy
- Adjustment of interest rates and money supply becomes impossible for local economic conditions
U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness
- Foreign interest rates rising above U.S. rates suggests a weakening U.S. dollar
- Higher foreign interest attracts investors, leading to dollar sales and foreign currency demand
Exchange Rate Model (Australian Dollar)
- Model: S = 1.3(M* - M) + 0.5(Y* – Y) + 0.8(r - r*)
- S = % change in spot exchange rate (A$/$)
- M = money supply
- Y = real GDP
- r = short-term real interest rate
- Model does not have a stationarity problem in percentage terms
- Reduction in money supply and increased interest rates result in A$/$ appreciation
Exchange Rate Changes (Australian Dollar)
- Australian central bank reduces money supply by 5%
- Short-term interest rates rise from 10% to 10.5%
- Inflation decreases without slowing economic growth
- Other US variables remain constant
- This results in a 6.1% appreciation of the Australian dollar towards the U.S. dollar
Additional Variables for Exchange Rate Models
- Inflation rate
- Current account balance
- Political factors
- Foreign exchange reserves
- Historical exchange rates
- Moving averages
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Description
Explore the complexities of current exchange rate arrangements, including managed float systems and pegged currencies. Understand the factors influencing exchange rate choices and the implications of a global currency like GLOBALL. Delve into how interest rates impact the strength and weakness of the U.S. dollar.