Exchange Rate Arrangements and Influences
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Questions and Answers

What are two key risks associated with investing in non-dollar-denominated bonds?

Interest rate risk and exchange rate risk are two key risks.

How can political risk negatively impact investments in foreign bonds?

Political risk can lead to government actions like expropriation or changing tax laws, reducing bond value.

Name a method to measure political risk when considering an investment.

Political risk can be measured using subjective and economic factors.

What is one strategy for managing political risk in investments?

<p>One strategy is to seek political risk insurance.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) and its purpose for investors?

<p>An ADR allows investors to trade foreign company shares on domestic exchanges.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can geographic diversification serve as a hedge against investment risk?

<p>Geographic diversification spreads investments across different regions, reducing exposure to specific local risks.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the current state of exchange rate arrangements and what future direction might they take?

<p>Currently, exchange rate arrangements are hybrid with major currencies floating on a managed basis, while others are pegged. The future may see more currencies floating with other currencies pegged in some form.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might individual investors choose to invest in international mutual funds rather than direct foreign stocks?

<p>International mutual funds offer diversified exposure and professional management.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Summarize one reason that could support borderless investing.

<p>Borderless investing allows access to a wider array of investment opportunities globally.</p> Signup and view all the answers

List some fundamental factors that influence the choice of an exchange rate arrangement.

<p>Some fundamental factors include country size (GDP), degree of openness, trade concentration, inflation differential with trading partners, and types of economic shocks faced.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might a global currency like GLOBALL not be a viable exchange rate arrangement?

<p>A global currency may not be viable because it would require countries to relinquish control over their monetary policies, limiting their ability to adjust interest rates and money supply based on local conditions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected impact on the U.S. dollar if foreign government interest rates rise above U.S. rates?

<p>The U.S. dollar would depreciate and weaken as higher foreign interest rates attract investors, prompting them to sell dollars for foreign currencies.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Describe the components of the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar.

<p>The model includes components for the money supply growth, real GDP growth, and the difference in short-term real interest rates, reflecting their impact on the percentage change in the spot exchange rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Does the proposed exchange rate model for the Australian Dollar face a stationarity problem?

<p>No, the model does not face a stationarity problem as all variables are expressed in percentage terms, suitable for calculating the spot exchange rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role does trade concentration play in determining exchange rate arrangements?

<p>Trade concentration influences exchange rate arrangements by affecting how vulnerable a country's economy is to external shocks and the need for stable currency values.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How might inflation differentials impact a country's exchange rate policy?

<p>Inflation differentials can lead a country to adopt a certain exchange rate policy to maintain competitiveness and prevent currency devaluation against more stable trading partners.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens to the A$/$ exchange rate after a 5% reduction in the money supply and a rise in short-term interest rates from 10% to 10.5%?

<p>The A$ appreciates by approximately 6.1%. It takes less Australian dollars to buy one United States Dollar.</p> Signup and view all the answers

List two additional variables that should be included in the exchange rate model and explain why.

<p>Inflation rate and political factors. These variables impact currency stability and can influence exchange rate fluctuations.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the calculated purchasing power parity (PPP) deviation for the Yen-Euro relationship?

<p>The PPP deviation is approximately 3.6%. It reflects the change in relative purchasing power based on CPI differences.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does an increasing money supply affect the Euro in relation to the Yen?

<p>An increasing money supply leads to increased inflation, causing the Euro to depreciate compared to the Yen.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Based on the rise in wages, what is the expected effect on the Japanese economy?

<p>Increased wages lead to higher consumer income and consumption. This can stimulate economic growth.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the formula used to compute the three-month ¥/€ forward rate?

<p>The formula is ((0.0002 - 0.0213) / (1 + 0.0213)) = ((F-137) / 137).</p> Signup and view all the answers

Identify one potential pressure on the exchange rate that can be derived from the economic indicators.

<p>Changes in the current account balance indicate pressures on the exchange rate. A surplus might strengthen the currency, while a deficit might weaken it.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role do historical exchange rates play in predicting future exchange rate movements?

<p>Historical exchange rates help establish patterns that can inform predictions of future currency behavior.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is foreign exchange risk and how can firms mitigate it?

<p>Foreign exchange risk arises when cash flows are in a foreign currency, leading to uncertainty when converted to the domestic currency. Firms can mitigate this risk by using forward or futures contracts.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Define political risk and provide an example of how it can affect investments.

<p>Political risk refers to uncertainty regarding property rights due to government actions, such as nationalization or regulatory changes. For example, a sudden change in trade policies could diminish the value of foreign investments.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In what situations might a domestic firm be exposed to foreign exchange risks?

<p>A domestic firm may face foreign exchange risks when it engages in activities like importing goods, exporting products, or outsourcing operations to foreign countries. Such transactions expose them to currency value fluctuations.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the reasons firms engage in foreign direct investment (FDI)?

<p>Firms engage in FDI to access key resources, expand into new markets, and enhance operational efficiency. This can include securing low-cost labor or acquiring new technologies.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the ICAPM model differ from the domestic CAPM?

<p>The ICAPM model differs by focusing on global market risk rather than domestic market risk and incorporating additional risk premiums linked to currency sensitivity. This results in different expected returns for individual securities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What strategies can firms use to manage foreign political risks?

<p>Firms can manage foreign political risks through strategies like avoidance, obtaining risk insurance, and building local relationships. These approaches help stabilize their operations in politically volatile environments.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the concept of currency exposures and why they are significant for asset returns.

<p>Currency exposures are measurements of how sensitive an asset's returns are to changes in exchange rates. They are significant as they affect expected returns, especially for assets held in foreign currencies.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the role of risk premiums in the context of global investments?

<p>Risk premiums compensate investors for taking on additional risks associated with global investments, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties. They play a key role in determining an asset's expected return.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is social capital and why is it considered important in economic contexts?

<p>Social capital refers to the value derived from trust, relationships, and community. It is important as it reduces transaction costs, encourages investment, and fosters cooperation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Discuss how social capital can impact foreign direct investment (FDI).

<p>High social capital can attract FDI by creating an environment of trust and stability, which encourages investors to engage in risky ventures.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does Bitcoin's price determination differ from traditional currencies?

<p>Bitcoin's price is influenced by supply, speculative demand, and market acceptance rather than being tied to any specific economy or government regulation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the risks associated with investing in Bitcoin?

<p>Investment in Bitcoin carries risks such as high volatility, potential for hacking, and the absence of interest rates.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In what ways can social capital lead to political stability?

<p>Social capital can foster trust and cooperation among community members, which contributes to a stable political environment.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might social capital be less significant in competitive industries with tight margins?

<p>In competitive industries, profit margins are tight, making financial metrics and operational efficiency more critical than social relationships.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What advantages does Bitcoin provide compared to traditional fiat currencies?

<p>Bitcoin offers transparency, security, and the potential for lower transaction fees in cross-border exchanges.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain how trust in financial industries relates to social capital.

<p>Trust is a vital component in financial industries, making high social capital crucial for reducing enforcement costs and promoting investment.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What formula is used to calculate the Expected Spot Rate based on inflation differentials?

<p>Expected Spot Rate = Current Spot Rate x [(1+inflation SA)/(1+ inflation US)]^n</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given a current spot rate of 0.158, what is the expected spot rate when South African inflation is 5% and U.S. inflation is 7% over 4 years?

<p>Expected Spot Rate = 0.146 USD/ZAR</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are some factors that likely contribute to the high interest rates in Turkey?

<p>High interest rates in Turkey are likely driven by inflation, political instability, economic uncertainty, and expectations of currency depreciation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Using the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), what is the predicted depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar based on the given interest rates?

<p>The Turkish lira would depreciate by approximately 64.17% compared to the U.S. dollar.</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a euro-based investor initially invested 10,000 euros to buy Microsoft shares, what was the dollar amount equivalent at an exchange rate of $1.15 per euro?

<p>$11,500</p> Signup and view all the answers

How much did the investor receive in euros after selling Microsoft shares for $135 each and converting at an exchange rate of $1.06 per euro?

<p>12,205.19 euros</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the total return on the investment in euro terms, if the initial investment was 10,000 euros?

<p>The total return is 22.05%.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How much of the total return was attributed to exchange rate movement in the investment example provided?

<p>955.19 euros was due to exchange rate movement.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Exchange Rate Arrangements

  • Current exchange rate arrangements are a hybrid system
  • Major currencies float on a managed basis
  • Other currencies have pegged arrangements
  • Future direction is towards a flexible system with floating currencies and others pegged

Factors Influencing Exchange Rate Choices

  • Country size (GDP)
  • Degree of openness
  • Trade concentration
  • Inflation differentials between countries and main trading partners
  • Types of economic shocks

Global Currency (GLOBALL) Viability

  • A global currency like GLOBALL might not be viable
  • It requires all countries to relinquish control over monetary policy
  • Adjustment of interest rates and money supply becomes impossible for local economic conditions

U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness

  • Foreign interest rates rising above U.S. rates suggests a weakening U.S. dollar
  • Higher foreign interest attracts investors, leading to dollar sales and foreign currency demand

Exchange Rate Model (Australian Dollar)

  • Model: S = 1.3(M* - M) + 0.5(Y* – Y) + 0.8(r - r*)
  • S = % change in spot exchange rate (A$/$)
  • M = money supply
  • Y = real GDP
  • r = short-term real interest rate
  • Model does not have a stationarity problem in percentage terms
  • Reduction in money supply and increased interest rates result in A$/$ appreciation

Exchange Rate Changes (Australian Dollar)

  • Australian central bank reduces money supply by 5%
  • Short-term interest rates rise from 10% to 10.5%
  • Inflation decreases without slowing economic growth
  • Other US variables remain constant
  • This results in a 6.1% appreciation of the Australian dollar towards the U.S. dollar

Additional Variables for Exchange Rate Models

  • Inflation rate
  • Current account balance
  • Political factors
  • Foreign exchange reserves
  • Historical exchange rates
  • Moving averages

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Description

Explore the complexities of current exchange rate arrangements, including managed float systems and pegged currencies. Understand the factors influencing exchange rate choices and the implications of a global currency like GLOBALL. Delve into how interest rates impact the strength and weakness of the U.S. dollar.

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