Egypt and Ethiopia tensions over GERD

• Tensions have risen between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
• Cairo protested to the UN Security Council against Ethiopia's continued filling of Africa's second largest reservoir and operating more turbines on September 1.
• Egypt relies on the Nile for over 98% of its water and views new infrastructure as a potential threat.
• Calls to prevent significant harm are reportedly being ignored by Ethiopia.
• Ethiopia has dismissed Egypt's concerns and claims it must allow the Blue Nile's water to flow through the dam to generate hydropower for Egypt.
• Disputes over the Nile have been ongoing since the 1970s.

Historical Context

• Egypt and Ethiopia have a long history of tension over the Nile River.
• They went to war as far back as 1874.
• Egypt gained control over the Nile through treaties negotiated by the British, which it still asserts.
• Past colonial authorities deliberately entrenched these fears.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

• The dam is now 90% complete and generating electricity.
• Recent rainy seasons have allowed the reservoir to fill quickly without affecting Egypt's water.
• The dam offers cheap green electricity to Ethiopia and the sub-region.
• Reliable irrigation supplies and flood control for Sudan are likely, plus increased water for Sudan.
• The immediate challenge is continuing to fill the dam without disrupting flows to Sudan and Egypt, particularly during regional droughts.
• There's a shift towards focusing on the rate at which the dam is filled, rather than the legality of the construction.
• Negotiations about electricity supply to support Sudan's irrigation expansion are on hold due to the war in Sudan.
• Cooperation among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia could enable the GERD's storage to manage Egypt's Aswan High Dam more efficiently, which currently suffers high evaporation losses.

Cooperation Potential

• Ethiopia needs to carefully act on Egypt's complaints and international organizations need to address this too.
• Ethiopia may need to slow the rate at which it completes filling the dam if there is another regional drought.
• Informal liaison structures are monitoring the situation
• There is hope that experiencing the benefits of the dam's operation over seasons will reveal the potential for cooperation and mitigate conflict.
• Once peace returns to Sudan, the dam could enable vast irrigation expansion and manage floods in the region.
• Cooperation on the Blue Nile requires greater trust between parties to overcome cultural and political preconceptions.