Econometrics Lecture 7: Functional Forms

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Questions and Answers

In the linear-log population regression function, how does a 1% change in X affect Y?

  • Y increases by 100 times the change in X.
  • Y changes by β1/100.
  • It results in a change in Y equal to β1.
  • It leads to a β1 change in Y/100. (correct)

What does the term β1 represent in the log-linear population regression function?

  • The percentage change in Y due to a unit change in X. (correct)
  • The ratio of change in Y to change in X.
  • The constant term in the regression equation.
  • The total change in Y for a given change in u.

How is β1 calculated in the linear-log population regression function?

  • β1 = ∆Y/Y.
  • β1 = ∆Y/100.
  • β1 = ∆Y/∆X.
  • β1 = ∆X/X. (correct)

In the log-linear population regression function, what does a change in X by 1 unit result in?

<p>A 100 × β1 % increase in Y. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What approximation is used in the linear-log and log-linear regressions for small changes?

<p>log(Y + ∆Y) is approximately equal to ∆Y. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a 1-unit increase in X1i represent in the linear regression model Yi = β0 + β1 X1i + ui?

<p>It corresponds to a β1-unit increase in Yi. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which expression accurately reflects how to express compounding percent changes in economic terms?

<p>$Y = (1 + R)^t$ (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the interpretation of β1 change when transforming Yi by taking the log?

<p>It indicates the percentage change in Yi for a given unit change in X1i. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What could the approximate equivalence of 1.2 relative to 0.7 imply in terms of percent changes?

<p>It represents approximately 54 different 1% increases compounded. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of log transformations in regression, which model properly reflects a log-transformed dependent variable?

<p>$log(Yi) = β0 + β1 log(X1i) + ui$ (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the notation $f (.)$ represent in the context of conditional expectation?

<p>The expected value of Y given the X's (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the approximation of the population regression function using polynomials, what form does the equation take?

<p>$Yi = β0 + β1 Xi + β2 Xi2 + ... + βr Xir + ui$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one advantage of using logarithmic transformations in regression analysis?

<p>It provides a direct interpretation of percentages (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a characteristic of polynomial regression as compared to linear regression?

<p>Allows for curvilinear relationships (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the symbol $ui$ typically represent in a regression equation?

<p>The error term (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which method is NOT mentioned as an approach to approximate the population regression function?

<p>Time series analysis (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What should guide the choice of the functional form in regression analysis?

<p>Judgment, tests, and plotting predicted values (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the equation $TestScorei = β0 + β1 Incomei + β2 Income2i + ui$, what does the term $Income2i$ represent?

<p>The non-linear effect of income on test scores (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of using a linear regression when the relationship between Y and X is nonlinear?

<p>The estimator of the effect on Y of X is biased. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does an F-statistic test in the context of joint hypotheses?

<p>It tests multiple restrictions on the coefficients simultaneously. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement correctly describes the process of regression specification?

<p>The base specification is modified to account for omitted variable bias. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is TRUE about the marginal effect of X when the relationship is nonlinear?

<p>It varies depending on the values of X. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the correct form of the general nonlinear population regression function?

<p>$Y_i = f(X_1i, X_2i, ..., X_ki) + u_i$ (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What happens if a specification with the highest R-squared is chosen without further analysis?

<p>The model may not estimate the causal effect accurately. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the key assumption regarding the error term in regression?

<p>The expected value of the error term conditioned on independent variables is zero. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The use of the term 'omitted variable bias' refers to which issue in regression modeling?

<p>Neglecting to include relevant variables leading to inaccurate results. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the regression equation for D1 = 0 imply about the relationship between Y and X1i?

<p>Y increases linearly with X1i. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does β3 represent in the fully interacted model?

<p>The interaction effect of D1 and X1i on Y. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main purpose of the Chow Test in this context?

<p>To test if the interaction between variables is significant. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When β1 = 0, what does that indicate concerning the two regression lines?

<p>They have the same intercept. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In which situation would one prefer non-linear models over linear models?

<p>When economic relationships are complex. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which statement about the relationship between X and Y in linear models is correct?

<p>The relationship between X and Y is constant and fixed. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the demand for luxury goods typically behave in relation to a rise in income?

<p>Demand increases at an accelerating rate. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which hypothesis is tested by computing the t-statistic for β3 = 0?

<p>The two lines have the same slope. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected outcome $E(Y | D1i = 0, D2i = 0)$ when both D1i and D2i are equal to 0?

<p>$β0$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a regression with one dummy variable D1i and one continuous variable X1i, how is the intercept affected when D1i equals 1 compared to when it equals 0?

<p>The intercept increases by $β2$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does $β3$ represent in the model $E(Y | D1i = 1, D2i = 1)$?

<p>The combined effect of D1 and D2 when both are 1 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the slope of the regression line change when D1i is equal to 1 compared to when it is equal to 0?

<p>The slope is affected by both $β1$ and $β2$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the fully interacted model $Yi = β0 + β1 D1i + β2 X1i + β3 (D1i × X1i) + ui$, what happens to the intercept?

<p>It is determined solely by $β0$ (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What effect does $D1i × X1i$ have on the model compared to the simpler model without interaction?

<p>It modifies the slope based on D1i's value (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected outcome $E(Y | D1i = 1, X1i)$ in a model with interaction $Yi = β0 + β1 X1i + β2 D1i + ui$?

<p>$β0 + β2 + β1 X1i$ (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of regression analysis involving dummy variables, which of the following statements is true regarding interactions?

<p>Interactions always increase the number of parameters in the model. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Linear Regression Function

The regression function we've used so far, where the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and independent variables (X) is a straight line.

Nonlinear Regression Function

Introducing non-linearity into the regression function, allowing for relationships that are not straight lines.

Non-Constant Marginal Effect

The effect on the dependent variable (Y) from a change in an independent variable (X), where this effect varies depending on the value of X.

Misspecified Functional Form

When a linear regression equation is used to model a non-linear relationship, it leads to an inaccurate representation of the true relationship.

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Biased Estimator

Estimates of the effect of an independent variable (X) on the dependent variable (Y) are systematically biased when the functional form is misspecified.

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Regression Specification

The process of determining the appropriate relationship between variables in a regression model, ensuring it accurately reflects the underlying data.

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Adding Regressors

Adding more independent variables to the model to control for other potential factors that could influence the dependent variable.

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Highest R-squared Selection

Using the R-squared value to select the regression model with the highest explanatory power, which might not always lead to the best model for causal analysis.

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Expected difference in Y

The expected difference in Y associated with a difference in X1, keeping other variables constant.

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Polynomial Regression

The population regression function is approximated by a quadratic, cubic, or higher-degree polynomial.

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Regression with Powers of X

The power of X is the regressor. It is a linear multiple regression model.

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Logarithmic Transformation

Y and/or X is transformed by taking its logarithm. This provides an interpretation of the coefficients in terms of percentages (elasticities and semi-elasticities).

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Specifying the Function Form

The choice of the functional form (linear, polynomial, logarithmic, etc.) in regression analysis should be guided by judgment, tests, and visualization of predicted values.

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Interpreting Polynomial Coefficients

The coefficients of the polynomial regression model are difficult to interpret directly, but the regression function itself provides an interpretable relationship between the variables.

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Visualizing Predicted Values

Plotting predicted values can help visualize the relationship between X and Y and assess the fit of the chosen functional form.

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No Perfect Multicollinearity

Regression models should not include variables that are perfectly collinear. This can lead to issues with estimating the model.

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Compound Percent Change

The relationship between a 1% increase in a variable (X) and the corresponding change in another variable (Y). It involves a compounded percent change, where the effect of the change is multiplied over time.

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Logarithmic Representation of Compounded Percent Change

A way to represent a compounded percent change using logarithms. It involves taking the difference of the logarithms of the observed variable at two different points in time.

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Linear Regression Model

A model that assumes a constant linear relationship between the independent and dependent variables. However, this model may not always be accurate in representing real-world relationships.

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Log Transformations in Regression

Transforming variables in a regression model by using logarithms. Log transformations are often used when the relationship between variables is linear.

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Marginal Effect

The impact of a one-unit change in an independent variable on the dependent variable in a regression model. This effect can be constant or vary with the value of the independent variable.

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Linear-log regression: % change in X

The effect of a 1% change in X on Y is given by β1/100.

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Log-linear regression: % change in Y

The effect of a 1 unit change in X on Y is given by 100 × β1%.

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Interpreting β1 in linear-log regression

In the linear-log regression model, the slope coefficient (β1) represents the change in Y for a 1% change in X.

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Interpreting β1 in log-linear regression

In the log-linear regression model, the slope coefficient (β1) represents the percentage change in Y for a 1-unit change in X.

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Linear-log regression

When the independent variable (X) is transformed using the natural logarithm, the regression model becomes linear-log. This transformation allows for the interpretation of the coefficient (β1) in terms of percentage changes.

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E(Y | D1i = 0, D2i = 0) = β0

The expected value of Y when both D1 and D2 are equal to 0, representing the baseline outcome.

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E(Y | D1i = 1, D2i = 0) = β0 + β1

The expected value of Y when D1 is 1 and D2 is 0. This represents the effect of D1 alone on Y, assuming D2 is not present.

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E(Y | D1i = 0, D2i = 1) = β0 + β2

The expected value of Y when D1 is 0 and D2 is 1, representing the effect of D2 alone on Y, assuming D1 is not present.

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E(Y | D1i = 1, D2i = 1) = β0 + β1 + β2 + β3

The expected value of Y when both D1 and D2 are 1. This represents the combined effect of D1 and D2 on Y, including any potential interaction between them.

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β3

The additional effect on Y caused by the combined presence of both D1 and D2, after accounting for the individual effects of each dummy variable.

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Yi = β0 + β1 X1i + β2 (D1i × X1i ) + ui

The regression line when D1 is 0 is a straight line with slope β1, while the regression line when D1 is 1 is also a straight line but with a different slope (β1 + β2). The intercepts of both lines are the same.

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Yi = β0 + β1 D1i + β2 X1i + β3 (D1i × X1i ) + ui

The regression line when D1 is 0 is a straight line with slope β1, while the regression line when D1 is 1 is also a straight line but with a different intercept (β0 + β1) and slope (β1 + β2).

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Yi = β0 + β1 X1i + β2 D1i + ui

The regression line when D1 is 0 is a straight line with slope β1, while the regression line when D1 is 1 is also a straight line but with a different intercept (β0 + β2). The slopes of both lines are the same.

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Interaction Effect in Regression

When D1 = 0, the regression line's intercept is β0 and its slope is β2. When D1 = 1, the intercept becomes (β0 + β1) and the slope becomes (β2 + β3). This means the relationship between Y and X1 is different depending on the value of D1.

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Chow Test

A method to test if there is a significant difference in the relationship between Y and X1 for two groups defined by D1.

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Testing for Equal Lines

The Chow Test examines if the lines for the two groups are the same by testing the joint hypothesis that β1 and β3 are both equal to zero.

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Testing for Equal Slopes

The t-statistic is used to specifically test if the slopes of the two lines are equal by examining if β3 is equal to zero.

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Testing for Equal Intercepts

The t-statistic is used to test if the intercepts of the two lines are equal by examining if β1 is equal to zero.

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Linear vs. Non-Linear Models

Linear models assume a constant relationship between variables, while non-linear models allow for more flexible and nuanced relationships. Non-linear models are better suited for capturing the complexities of real-world economic relationships.

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Non-Linear Economic Phenomena

In the context of economic phenomena, the relationship between variables can be non-linear, meaning that changes in one variable might not lead to proportional changes in another variable. For example, the demand for luxury goods might not increase linearly with income.

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Advantages of Non-Linear Models

Non-linear models allow for more realistic representations of complex economic relationships by capturing variations in the relationship between variables, which linear models cannot.

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Study Notes

Lecture 7: Functional Forms

  • Lecture for 25117 - Econometrics
  • Held at Universitat Pompeu Fabra
  • On November 11th, 2024

What We Learned Last Time

  • Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for a single regression coefficient are conducted similarly to simple linear regression models (e.g., $β₁ ± 1.96SE(β₁)$ for a 95% confidence interval)
  • Joint hypotheses, involving multiple restrictions on coefficients, are tested using F-statistics, which relate to Fq,n-k-1 distributions.
  • Regression specification involves initially choosing a base specification to address omitted variable bias. The base specification can be modified by adding control variables for omitted variable bias.
  • Simply selecting the specification with the highest R² might not ensure estimation of the target causal effect.

Introduction

  • The regression function (so far) has been linear in X's, but this linear approximation isn't always optimal, leading to potential issues with misspecified models and biased estimations.
  • Multiple linear regression can accommodate non-linear functions of one or more X-variables.
  • Non-linear relationships between Y and X means the marginal effect of X depends on the value of X.
  • Linear regression is inappropriate for non-linear Y-X relationships. This leads to biased estimator results when the relationship between variables is non-linear.

A Linear Fit on a (Possibly) Linear Relationship

  • Data points display scatter with roughly a negative linear association.
  • The equation of the fitted line, TestScore ~ 698.9 - 2.28 × STR.

A Linear Fit on a Non-Linear Relationship

  • The data points display some scatter with a positive association that is not linear. Data points are suggestive of a non-linear relationship.

The General Nonlinear Population Regression Function

  • The general nonlinear population regression function is defined as $Y_i = f(X_{1i}, X_{2i}, ..., X_{ki}) + U_i$, where $E(U_i | X_{1i}, X_{2i}, ..., X_{ki}) = 0$.
  • Errors are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.).
  • Outliers are rare.
  • No perfect multicollinearity.

Non-linear Functions of a Single Independent Variable (X)

  • Polynomials in X
  • Approximate using quadratic (2nd degree polynomial), cubic (3rd degree), or higher-degree polynomial functions.
  • Logarithmic Transformations
  • Y and/or X is transformed via logarithm, which aids in interpreting the relationship.

Polynomials in X

  • The data is modeled as a polynomial.
  • The example is quadratic, with Y = $β_0 + β_1X_i + β_2X_i^2 + u_i$.

Logarithmic Functions of Y and/or X

  • Approximating using the Taylor's expansion: log(x) ≈ log(x)_{x=a} + (x-a) / X_{x=a}
  • (Assuming a = 1, log(x) ≈ x - 1)
  • Compounding percentage changes.
  • Logarithmic transformations are used for a richer economic interpretation of variables (like interest rates, inflation, and population growth).

Linear/Log Population Regression Function

  • For $Y_i = b_0 + b_1 log(x_i) +u_i$, a 1% change in X is associated with a $b_1/100$ change in Y.

Log-Linear/Log-Log Population Regression Function

  • Similar interpretations to linear-log, but with a different interpretation based on the type of transformation applied (log on right vs log on left)

Interactions and Heterogeneous Effects

  • In economic models, focusing on the impact of a factor (e.g., the share of subsidized meals) might not be sufficient. It's critical to understand the heterogeneous/conditional effects of this factor, often depending on other factors (e.g., on different levels of education attainment).

Interactions Between Two Dummies

  • The introduction of interaction between two or more dummy variable(s).
  • The specification allows different intercepts and/or slopes for different combinations of dummies (e.g., a different impact when both the dummy variable and interaction factor are 1)

Interactions Between a Dummy and a Continuous Variable

  • The effect of a continuous variable can be different based on the value of a dummy variable.
  • The slopes or intercepts may vary, hence the interaction effects.

Interactions Between Two Continuous Variables

  • The effect of one continuous variable depends on the value of another continuous variable.
  • This introduces interaction effects within the model.

Wrapping up: Linear vs. Non-Linear Models

  • Linear models assume a constant relationship between variables, but economic relationships are rarely entirely linear.
  • Non-linear models allow for more flexible interpretations of relationship between economic variables.
  • In economic contexts, ignoring non-linear relationships can lead to inaccurate calculations and conclusions.

The Importance of Interactions

  • Recognizing the interaction effects between variables adds nuance to economic analysis and enhances modeling of real-world economic phenomenon.
  • The right functional form can impact the accuracy of predictions and have implications for policies.

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