ECON 266: Multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)

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Questions and Answers

In the context of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, which of the following conditions, when violated, would MOST directly lead to biased coefficient estimates, even with a large sample size?

  • Omission of a relevant variable that is correlated with the included independent variables. (correct)
  • Heteroskedasticity in the error term, where the variance of the error varies systematically with the independent variables.
  • Autocorrelation in the error term of a time series regression, particularly positive autocorrelation.
  • Non-normality of the error term distribution, especially if the sample size is small.

Consider an econometric model where one suspects a high degree of multicollinearity. Which of the following is the MOST reliable strategy to address multicollinearity's impact on coefficient estimates, while preserving interpretability and statistical validity?

  • Use Ridge Regression, which introduces a small bias to reduce the variance of the estimates. (correct)
  • Compute Variance Inflation Factors (VIFs) and iteratively remove variables with the highest VIFs until all VIFs are below a threshold of 5.
  • Transform all variables into their first differences to remove the common trend.
  • Apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to create orthogonal components and regress the dependent variable on these components.

Suppose an econometrician is estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function: $\ln(Q_i) = \beta_0 + \beta_1\ln(K_i) + \beta_2\ln(L_i) + \epsilon_i$, where $Q$ is output, $K$ is capital, and $L$ is labor. To test for constant returns to scale, what null hypothesis should be tested using an F-test?

  • $\beta_1 = 0$ and $\beta_2 = 0$
  • $\beta_1 = 1$ and $\beta_2 = 1$
  • $\beta_1 + \beta_2 = 1$ (correct)
  • $\beta_1 + \beta_2 = 0$

In the context of simultaneous equation models, which identification strategy is MOST appropriate when an instrumental variable is correlated with the endogenous explanatory variable but is uncorrelated with the structural error term?

<p>Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), where the endogenous variable is regressed on the instrument in the first stage. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario involving an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. Under what specific circumstances would one need to employ a unit root test (e.g., Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) and subsequently estimate the model in differences or with an error correction mechanism (ECM)?

<p>When the variables in the ADL model are suspected to be non-stationary and potentially cointegrated. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Imagine you are analyzing a time series dataset and suspect the presence of a structural break. Which econometric technique is MOST appropriate for formally testing the null hypothesis of no structural break at an unknown breakpoint?

<p>The Bai-Perron test. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of panel data analysis, what is the PRIMARY distinction between a fixed effects model and a random effects model, and under what condition is a fixed effects model generally preferred?

<p>Fixed effects models assume the individual-specific effects are correlated with the regressors, while random effects models assume they are uncorrelated; fixed effects are preferred when the individual-specific effects are thought to be correlated with the other variables. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When using instrumental variable regression (IV), what statistical test is MOST appropriate for assessing the strength and validity of the instruments in the presence of multiple instruments for a single endogenous variable?

<p>An F-test to assess the joint significance of the instruments in the first-stage regression, combined with an overidentification test like the Hansen J-test. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an econometrician estimating a dynamic panel data model with lagged dependent variables. Which estimation technique is MOST appropriate to address the Nickell bias that arises due to the correlation between the lagged dependent variable and the error term?

<p>Arellano-Bond estimator (Difference GMM) or Blundell-Bond estimator (System GMM). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose you are estimating a model and you standardize the variables. By how much do you need to multiply $b_j$ to convert the effect back into the original units of $Y$?

<p>$sd(Y)$ (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements accurately describes the implications of the Gauss-Markov theorem for OLS estimators under classical assumptions?

<p>OLS estimators are the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUE), meaning they have the minimum variance among all linear unbiased estimators. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of conducting hypothesis tests on multiple coefficients using an F-test, which of the following scenarios represents a valid null hypothesis?

<p>That the sum of all coefficients in the model is equal to one. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the content, what distribution-specific assumption is explicitly listed as a requirement for ensuring that Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators are Best Linear Unbiased Estimators (BLUE)?

<p>The error term is homoskedastic. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of multicollinearity, which of the following statements accurately describes the potential consequences for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis and hypothesis testing?

<p>Coefficient estimates become unstable, with large standard errors, making it difficult to reject false null hypotheses. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a regression model where you suspect the exogeneity assumption is violated. Which of the following conditions must hold for an instrumental variable (Z) to be considered valid?

<p>Z must be correlated with the endogenous regressor (X) and uncorrelated with the error term ($\epsilon$). (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does standardization impact the interpretation of regression coefficients?

<p>Standardized coefficients represent the change in the dependent variable in standard deviations for a one standard deviation change in the independent variable. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In time series analysis, what is the primary purpose of stationarity tests such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and what action should be taken if a series is found to be non-stationary?

<p>To determine if a series has a constant mean and variance over time; difference the series or use cointegration techniques if applicable. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of regression diagnostics, what does a Breusch-Pagan test primarily assess, and what corrective action is typically taken if the test indicates a statistically significant violation of its null hypothesis?

<p>Heteroskedasticity; use White's standard errors or Weighted Least Squares. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario in which a researcher standardizes all the independent variables in a multiple regression model before estimation. What is the MOST accurate interpretation of the resulting standardized coefficients?

<p>The change in the dependent variable in standard deviations for a one-standard-deviation change in the corresponding independent variable. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Multicollinearity

Condition when an independent variable is highly related to other independent variables in a model.

Variable Standardization

Transforming variables by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.

Interpreting Standardized Coefficients

Expresses the change in the dependent variable in terms of standard deviations for each one standard deviation change in the independent variable.

The F-test

A statistical test used to test hypotheses about multiple coefficients simultaneously.

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F-test Case 1

A test to evaluate whether the model as a whole statistically and significantly explains the variation in the dependent variable.

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Gauss-Markov Theorem

If certain assumptions are met, then the OLS estimator is the best linear unbiased estimator.

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Linearity in Parameters

The relationship between the parameters and variables can be expressed as a linear equation.

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Random Sampling

Each data point is selected randomly and independently from the population.

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Zero Conditional Mean of Errors

The average value of the error term is zero, given any values of the independent variables.

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Homoskedasticity

The variance of the error term is constant across all values of the independent variables.

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No Perfect Multicollinearity

There is no perfect linear relationship among the independent variables.

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No Autocorrelation

The error terms are not correlated with each other across observations.

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Study Notes

  • ECON 266: Introduction to Econometrics, presented by Promise Kamanga from Hamilton College on 03/06/2025.

Multivariate OLS

  • The lecture focuses on Multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS).
  • Discusses precision of estimated coefficient for bivariate (one X) and multivariate cases.

Precision of an estimated coefficient

  • Bivariate Regression $$var(b₁) = \frac{\hat{σ}^2}{N \times var(X_i)}$$
  • Multivariate Regression $$var(b_j) = \frac{\hat{σ}^2}{N \times var(X_j)(1 – R_j^2)}$$
  • Multicollinearity occurs when an independent variable is highly related to other independent variables in a model
  • Multicollinearity results in a high value of $R_j^2$
  • Multicollinearity makes it hard to tell just how much $X_j$ affects Y
  • Stata will drop some variables when a model is highly multicollinear

Standardized Coefficients

  • Used when comparison of coefficients is wanted
  • Comparing variables measured on different scales is difficult
  • Standardizing variables helps in comparison by calculating the standard deviation $$variable^{std} = \frac{variable - \overline{variable}}{sd(variable)}$$
  • Standardized versions of the original variables are generated and used in the model
  • We often standardize the dependent variable
  • Coefficients are interpreted as standard deviations from the mean
  • A one standard deviation increase in $X_j$ is associated with a change in Y of $b_j$ standard deviation
  • The bigger the magnitude of the estimated coefficient the bigger the effect on the variation of Y
  • The effect can be converted back to original units of Y by multiplying $b_j \times sd(Y)$
  • The $R^2$ of the unstandardized model and the standardized model will be the same

Hypothesis Testing about Multiple Coefficients

  • Statistical analysis is largely based on one variable at a time
  • Standardizing variables gives a limited way to compare the magnitudes of the effects of variables
  • The F test is useful to conduct hypotheses on multiple variables
  • Case 1: multiple coefficients equal zero under the null
  • Case 2: one or more coefficients are equal to each other under the null
  • Emphasis is placed on Case 1, $H_0: β_1 = β_2 = ... = β_j = 0$ and $H_A: B_1 ≠ B_2 ≠ ... ≠ β_j = 0$
  • Useful in cases of multicollinear variables
  • The test evaluates whether the model as a whole statistically significantly explains the variation in the dependent variable
  • In Stata, can easily evaluate this test by comparing the p value of the F test to the significance level

The Gauss-Markov Theorem

  • The OLS estimates fall under the Gauss-Markov theorem
  • The OLS estimator is the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) if certain assumptions are met:
  • A1: linearity in parameters, model can be expressed as linear combinations of the explanatory variables
  • A2: random sampling, observations are derived through a random process
  • A3: zero conditional mean of errors, $E [ε_i | X_i] = 0$, there is no endogeneity
  • A4: homoskedasticity
  • A5: no perfect multicollinearity
  • A6: no autocorrelation

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