Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making Quiz

<p>The sample size and base rate. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>A hypothetical hospital with 15 births per day. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Chance can occasionally produce ordered outcomes. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Individuals struggle with understanding combined probabilities. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>It seems representative of random outcomes. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Small samples are statistically less reliable. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Believing that small samples are representative of the population. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Exposing oneself to a larger number of group members. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>People often ignore the frequency of occurrence within the population. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>They will be representative of the larger population. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Judging a whole community based on a few interactions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Results from small samples should be viewed with skepticism. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>It significantly affects how closely results align with the true population characteristics. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The event is perceived as very likely. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The type of statement and level of statistical sophistication. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Sociocultural background. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The event is very likely. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Tversky and Kahneman. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Intermediate. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Intuitive reasoning. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Higher probability assigned to a conjunction than to a single component. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>60% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Anchoring and adjustment heuristic (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Initial estimates (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>They associated 90% intervals with an actual certainty of about 50%. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Shutting their minds to new possibilities (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The relationship to probability (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>By making larger adjustments away from the initial anchor (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Narrow intervals can often be misleading. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>It requires the application of formal logic to draw conclusions. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Conditional reasoning (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Because other factors could have caused the breathing problem. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Two premises and a conclusion. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The validity, invalidity, or indeterminacy of the conclusion. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>The conclusion is undetermined. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>It describes a relationship between two conditions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Because their intuition based on personal experience suggests it is true. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Logical reasoning often relies on heuristics. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>If I am a first-year student, I must register for classes today. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Using probabilities to draw conclusions. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Denying the consequent. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>Assuming all musicians can sing well. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>They use dual-process theory to distinguish cognitive methods. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>It is acceptable to draw conclusions with 'it's a good bet'. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

<p>They can lead to cognitive errors in certain contexts. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Tasks that provide all needed information to draw a conclusion. Premises can be true or false, and formal logic is required.

A type of deductive reasoning that describes the relationship between conditions. Has an 'if...then...' structure.

A conclusion that isn't logically supported even if the premises are true. Other factors can create the result.

A type of deductive reasoning with two statements (assumed true) and a conclusion based on quantities (all, none, some).

Judging if a syllogism's conclusion logically follows from its premises.

A syllogism where the conclusion's validity can't be determined from the given premises.

A statement accepted as true for the purpose of drawing a conclusion.

Rules used for determining valid conclusions based on stated premises.

The process of evaluating the validity of arguments based on the relationships between propositions (statements).

A valid argument form where if the first statement is true, then the second statement is also true.

An invalid argument form where if the second statement is true, it doesn't guarantee the first statement is true.

An invalid argument form where if the first statement is false, then the second statement is not necessarily false.

A valid argument form where if the second statement is false, the first statement must be false.

A theory of cognition proposes two distinct ways of thinking: fast, intuitive and slow, analytical.

General strategies or "rules of thumb" that often lead to correct solutions in everyday reasoning.

A statement that assumes no significant relationship exists between variables being studied.

The mistaken belief that a small sample is representative of the entire population. This leads to overestimating the significance of unusual results in small groups.

The number of individuals or items included in a study or experiment. It affects the reliability of results and the ability to generalize findings to a larger population.

Ignoring the overall frequency of an event in favor of specific, but potentially misleading, information.

Making judgments based on how closely something matches our mental prototype or stereotype, ignoring objective data.

A group with a high number of individuals or data points. Often provides a more accurate representation of the entire population.

The percentage of a specific characteristic or event within the entire group.

A proportion that significantly deviates from the expected or average value.

A generalized belief about a group of people, often based on insufficient information or biases.

The representativeness heuristic suggests we perceive outcomes that appear random as more likely than outcomes that appear orderly, even though chance can produce both.

This heuristic can lead us to ignore important statistical information like sample size and base rates, potentially making poor decisions.

The overall frequency or probability of an event in the population.

People tend to struggle with understanding the probability of events with two or more characteristics (e.g., someone being both tall AND a doctor).

Our reliance on representativeness can lead us to disregard important statistical information, making us susceptible to biases and errors in judgment.

While quick and often helpful, the representativeness heuristic can lead to inaccurate judgments and biased decisions, particularly when dealing with complex or uncertain situations.

A range of values that is likely to contain the true value of a population parameter. It provides a measure of uncertainty.

A cognitive bias where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive (the anchor) when making judgments.

The tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our judgments and predictions.

Cognitive processing that relies on prior knowledge and expectations to interpret new information.

A misunderstanding of the meaning and purpose of confidence intervals, often leading to an overestimation of certainty.

Strategies to avoid being stuck with the initial anchor and adjust estimates appropriately.

A systematic error in confidence intervals caused by factors like anchoring and misinterpretation.

The ability to evaluate information objectively and question assumptions to avoid cognitive biases.

A scale used to rate how likely an event is to occur, with lower numbers indicating higher likelihood. It helps understand people's judgments about probabilities.

A quick and effortless form of reasoning, often based on gut feelings and heuristics. It can lead to biases and errors in judgment.

The level of knowledge and understanding someone has about statistics and probabilities. It impacts their judgments about likelihood.

A cognitive bias where people mistakenly believe that a specific event is more likely than a more general event. The conjunction fallacy is a common error in intuitive reasoning.

The way a statement is phrased can influence how likely people perceive an event to be. There are multiple types of statements.

Factors like the type of statement and an individual's statistical sophistication can influence their perception of the likelihood of events.

The process of estimating how likely an event is to occur. It involves reasoning, intuition, and statistical sophistication.

Systematic errors in thinking that can affect our judgment of probabilities. These biases often stem from intuitive reasoning and heuristics.