Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making Quiz
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Questions and Answers

Which outcome is considered to look representative in the context of random coin tosses?

  • HHHHTT
  • THTTTT
  • THTHTH (correct)
  • HHHTHH

    • What does the representativeness heuristic lead people to believe regarding outcomes?

  • Orderly outcomes are more representative of the population.
  • Outcomes that appear random are less likely than orderly outcomes.
  • All outcomes have an equal chance of occurring.
  • Random-­looking outcomes are viewed as more likely than orderly outcomes. (correct)

    • Why might a total grocery bill of $22.22 cause suspicion according to the representativeness heuristic?

  • It indicates that the cashier made an error.
  • It aligns perfectly with common pricing strategies.
  • It looks too orderly and is not representative of random outcomes. (correct)
  • It is above the average cost for groceries.

    • Which of the following factors is often ignored when using the representativeness heuristic?

    <p>The sample size and base rate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of hospital was used in Kahneman and Tversky's example to illustrate representativeness?

    <p>A hypothetical hospital with 15 births per day.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does chance relate to ordered sums like $22.22?

    <p>Chance can occasionally produce ordered outcomes.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a common issue when combining characteristics according to the text?

    <p>Individuals struggle with understanding combined probabilities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might a random-looking total of $21.97 be perceived as normal?

    <p>It seems representative of random outcomes.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might a small sample reveal an extreme proportion of baby boys born on a given day?

    <p>Small samples are statistically less reliable.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is one fallacy people make regarding sample sizes?

    <p>Believing that small samples are representative of the population.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can help combat inappropriate stereotypes related to small samples?

    <p>Exposing oneself to a larger number of group members.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a common misconception regarding representativeness?

    <p>People often ignore the frequency of occurrence within the population.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to Tversky and Kahneman's findings, what do people often assume about small samples?

    <p>They will be representative of the larger population.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an example of a situation where the small-sample fallacy might occur?

    <p>Judging a whole community based on a few interactions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the best way to interpret the results of a study involving base rates and small samples?

    <p>Results from small samples should be viewed with skepticism.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role does sample size play in statistical reporting?

    <p>It significantly affects how closely results align with the true population characteristics.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a low number on the likelihood ranking indicate about people's perception of an event?

    <p>The event is perceived as very likely.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What influences the likelihood rankings according to the content?

    <p>The type of statement and level of statistical sophistication.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a factor in the influence of likelihood rankings?

    <p>Sociocultural background.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of the presented ranking, what would a ranking of '1' indicate?

    <p>The event is very likely.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Based on the information, who wrote about the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment?

    <p>Tversky and Kahneman.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which level of statistical knowledge is associated with a ranking of '6' in the likelihood ranking chart?

    <p>Intermediate.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of reasoning is contrasted with statistical reasoning in the content?

    <p>Intuitive reasoning.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which statement best describes the conjunction fallacy?

    <p>Higher probability assigned to a conjunction than to a single component.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What percentage of the time do people provide 98% confidence intervals that include the correct answer, according to the studies mentioned?

    <p>60%</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which heuristic is relevant when making confidence-interval estimates?

    <p>Anchoring and adjustment heuristic</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What do individuals typically fail to adjust sufficiently from in the anchoring and adjustment process?

    <p>Initial estimates</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What misconception did college students often have regarding 90% confidence intervals?

    <p>They associated 90% intervals with an actual certainty of about 50%.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What might prevent individuals from making appropriate adjustments in confidence interval estimations?

    <p>Shutting their minds to new possibilities</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of confidence intervals do individuals often misunderstand?

    <p>The relationship to probability</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How can biases from the anchoring and adjustment heuristic be overcome?

    <p>By making larger adjustments away from the initial anchor</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What did the example with the estimate of college students illustrate about confidence intervals?

    <p>Narrow intervals can often be misleading.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What characterizes a deductive reasoning task?

    <p>It requires the application of formal logic to draw conclusions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a common type of deductive reasoning that uses an 'if...then...' structure?

    <p>Conditional reasoning</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the example provided, why is the conclusion 'Therefore, this child has eaten peanuts' considered invalid?

    <p>Because other factors could have caused the breathing problem.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does a syllogism consist of?

    <p>Two premises and a conclusion.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When judging the conclusion of a syllogism, what must be considered?

    <p>The validity, invalidity, or indeterminacy of the conclusion.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the outcome of the syllogism provided in the content regarding psychology majors?

    <p>The conclusion is undetermined.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following statements about conditional reasoning is true?

    <p>It describes a relationship between two conditions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why might someone mistakenly believe that the conclusion in the syllogism regarding psychology majors is valid?

    <p>Because their intuition based on personal experience suggests it is true.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a key distinction in logical reasoning according to the text?

    <p>Logical reasoning often relies on heuristics.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In the context of propositional reasoning, which statement is valid?

    <p>If I am a first-year student, I must register for classes today.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What concept do decision-making tasks allow that propositional reasoning tasks do not?

    <p>Using probabilities to draw conclusions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which reasoning task involves ruling out a null hypothesis?

    <p>Denying the consequent.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an example of a cognitive error in reasoning noted in the text?

    <p>Assuming all musicians can sing well.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How do some individuals manage to solve reasoning tasks correctly despite logical challenges?

    <p>They use dual-process theory to distinguish cognitive methods.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following is an incorrect statement regarding propositional reasoning?

    <p>It is acceptable to draw conclusions with 'it's a good bet'.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a limitation of using heuristic strategies in logical reasoning?

    <p>They can lead to cognitive errors in certain contexts.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

    • Deductive reasoning, problem solving, and decision making are interconnected processes. They all involve mentally transforming information beyond what's initially given to reach a goal (solution, belief, or decision). Deductive reasoning specifically starts with premises (assumed true) to judge if a conclusion logically follows. Decision-making involves evaluating information and choosing among alternatives.

    Chapter Introduction

    • Problem solving, deductive reasoning, and decision making are interconnected aspects of "thinking." They necessitate mental transformations from given information to reach a conclusion, belief or solution.

    Conditional Reasoning

    • Conditional reasoning (a type of deductive reasoning):
      • Involves assessing the validity of conclusions based on "if...then" statements.
      • Example: If a child is allergic to peanuts, then eating peanuts produces a breathing problem. A child has a breathing problem. Therefore, this child has eaten peanuts.
      • Note that the conclusion is invalid. Other factors beyond eating peanuts could cause a breathing problem.
      • Conditional reasoning tasks assess the validity of conclusions based on relationships stated in "if...then" statements.
    • Syllogism (another type of deductive reasoning):
      • Consists of two statements (premises) assumed to be true, and a conclusion.
      • Example: Some psychology majors are friendly people. Some friendly people are concerned about poverty. Therefore, some psychology majors are concerned about poverty.
      • Note that the validity of the conclusion is indeterminate; it might be true for some psychology majors but not all.

    Biases in Deductive Reasoning

    • Belief bias: Making judgments based on prior beliefs instead of logical reasoning.
    • Confirmation bias: Seeking evidence to support existing beliefs and ignoring contradictory information. In the context of the Wason Selection Task, people tend to look for confirmation rather than refutations of hypotheses.

    Heuristics and Decision Making

    • Heuristics are mental shortcuts used for quick decisions. They are efficient but can lead to errors.
    • Representativeness Heuristic: Judging the likelihood of something based on how similar it is to a typical example. (e.g., judging the likelihood of a person being a bank teller and a feminist is higher than just a bank teller)
    • Availability Heuristic: Estimating the frequency of something based on how easily examples come to mind. (e.g., estimating the likelihood of an event based on readily available examples)
    • Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Making estimates by starting with an initial value (anchor) and adjusting it based on additional information, which is often insufficient. The anchor heavily influences the final estimate.
    • Overconfidence Effect: People's confidence in their judgments exceeding the accuracy of their judgments.
    • Hindsight Bias: The tendency to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were.

    Applications of Decision-Making Research

    • Framing Effect: Decision making influenced by the presentation of information (e.g., framed to emphasize gains or losses)

    Current Status of Heuristics and Decision Making

    • Heuristics are essential for efficient decision-making in a fast-paced environment.

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    Related Documents

    Cognition: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making (2023) PDF

    Description

    Test your understanding of deductive reasoning, problem solving, and decision making. This quiz explores how these processes are interconnected and involves evaluating conditional reasoning through 'if...then' statements. Challenge yourself to logically deduce conclusions based on given premises.

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