Decision-Making and Heuristics
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Questions and Answers

Which of the following pairs includes a film actor and a singer?

  • Tom Cruise - Margaret Thatcher
  • Brad Pitt - Anna Ford
  • Robbie Williams - Jennifer Lopez (correct)
  • David Niven - Kate Moss

Identify the pair in List A that includes a writer and a politician.

  • Iris Murdoch - Jonathan Ross
  • Jane Austen - Tony Blair (correct)
  • Joseph Conrad - George Bush
  • Enid Blyton - David Beckham

Which option consists of a director and a model?

  • Ewan McGregor - Naomi Campbell
  • John Ford - Kate Moss (correct)
  • Tom Cruise - Britney Spears
  • Richard Briers - Victoria Beckham

Which pair includes two actors?

<p>Julia Roberts - John Travolta (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Identify the pair in List B that features two singers.

<p>Jennifer Lopez - Naomi Campbell (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following pairs features a writer and a filmmaker?

<p>Iris Murdoch - John Ford (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which option includes a politician and an actress?

<p>George Bush - Cherie Booth (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following pairs includes a novel writer and a sports figure?

<p>David Beckham - Lewis Carroll (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary focus of the availability heuristic?

<p>The ease of retrieving information from memory (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to Tversky and Kahneman, what happens when people can easily think of examples related to a probability?

<p>They overestimate the probability (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What was a key finding from the research of Tversky and Kahneman regarding the letters K and R?

<p>They are more common as third letters (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How does the availability heuristic affect people's judgment of unpleasant events?

<p>It makes them more pessimistic and see unpleasant events as more likely. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What misconception might lead participants to believe certain letters occur more frequently as first letters?

<p>Memory biases regarding word familiarity (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What factor influences the perception of politicians, as demonstrated in Haddock's study?

<p>Recent positive or negative characteristics they recall. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What tends to happen when individuals cannot easily recall examples related to a given event?

<p>They underestimate the probability (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does familiarity refer to in the context of judgment about social phenomena?

<p>The amount of contact a person has with a subject. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes an outcome of the availability heuristic?

<p>Distortion of reality based on perceived frequency (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the study by Kahneman and Tversky, what was indicated about participants' estimates of divorce rates?

<p>They tended to be higher for individuals who had met many divorced people. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might a list seem distorted when counting names in a specific category?

<p>Because of cognitive biases affecting perception (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why were politically interested participants less influenced by the availability heuristic in Haddock's study?

<p>They were not swayed by recent memories. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What could lead a person to have an inflated perception of divorce rates?

<p>Having met many divorced individuals. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which type of reasoning is likely to be affected by the availability heuristic?

<p>Inductive reasoning (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How might recalling positive memories impact a person's outlook on events?

<p>It can lead to a more optimistic view of future events. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a consequence of relying heavily on the availability heuristic in judgment?

<p>Erroneous assessments of likelihood (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Who were the researchers that identified the availability heuristic?

<p>Tversky and Kahneman (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role does recent memory play in shaping perceptions for individuals uninterested in politics?

<p>They are heavily influenced by it. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is an effect of the availability heuristic in general?

<p>It influences perceptions based on what is easily recalled. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might someone underestimate divorce rates if they have little exposure to divorcees?

<p>They have no basis for comparison. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main factor causing the framing effect in decision-making?

<p>The wording or background context of the problem (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the ‘Asian disease problem’, how many people are expected to be killed?

<p>600 people (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which programme offers a one-third probability of saving all 600 people?

<p>Programme B (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the outcome of Programme A as described in Problem 1?

<p>200 people saved (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In Problem 2, how is the outcome of Programme A phrased?

<p>200 people will die (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key difference between the wording of the programmes in Problems 1 and 2?

<p>The framing of the outcomes as saving or losing lives (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements is true regarding Programme B in Problem 1?

<p>It has an uncertain outcome with a one-third chance of saving everyone (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What psychological effect is illustrated by the ‘Asian disease problem’?

<p>Framing effect (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might participants react differently to Problems 1 and 2 despite the same outcomes?

<p>The wordings influence their perception of risk (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What kind of decision-making scenario is represented by the programmes in the Asian disease problem?

<p>Making a choice under uncertainty (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does hindsight bias lead people to believe after they learn the correct answer to a question?

<p>They would have predicted the answer accurately. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which research method did Fischhoff (1977) use to study the impact of hindsight bias?

<p>Participants were asked to choose answers independently. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary focus of the heuristics and biases approach introduced by Kahneman and Tversky?

<p>The ways heuristics affect human judgment. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What phenomenon explains why people claim they 'knew that' after learning an answer?

<p>Hindsight bias. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How did the second group in Fischhoff's study differ from the first group?

<p>They received the correct answers before assigning probabilities. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What aspect of human behavior is largely impacted by the first group's method of answering questions in the study?

<p>The assessment of their own skills. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

During the last three decades, what has been a dominant aspect of judgment and decision-making research?

<p>The recognition of heuristics in decision-making. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

List A

A list of people.

List B

Another list of people.

David Beckham

A famous person.

Jennifer Lopez

A famous person.

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Jane Austen

A famous person.

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John Steinbeck

A famous person.

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Anna Ford

A famous person.

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Brad Pitt

A famous person.

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Availability Heuristic

A mental shortcut where judgments of probability are based on how easily examples come to mind.

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Probability Judgement

Assessing the likelihood of an event or characteristic.

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Effect of Availability

Judgments of the frequency or probability of events are influenced by the ease with which instances come to mind.

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Letter Frequency

Study using letters as example to show effect of availability.

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Tversky and Kahneman (1973)

Researchers who highlighted the availability heuristic.

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Ease of recall

How readily examples come to mind influencing judgments.

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Overestimate

To presume the probability of something is higher than it is.

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Underestimate

To presume the probability of something is lower than it is.

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Mental Shortcut

A simplified way of thinking about something that helps make decisions more quickly.

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Cognitive Bias

A systematic error in thinking.

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Availability Heuristic & Unpleasant Events

When recalling negative events, people tend to judge them as more likely and become more pessimistic.

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Availability Heuristic & Politics

The availability heuristic can affect how we perceive politicians. We may base our opinions on recently recalled positive or negative information.

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Familiarity

The amount of contact or exposure a person has with a subject. Familiarity can influence our estimations and judgments.

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Familiarity & Divorce Rates

People who have more contact with divorced individuals tend to overestimate the divorce rate.

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Kahneman & Tversky Study

A study that demonstrated the influence of familiarity on judgments. Participants were presented with lists of names and asked to estimate the frequency of those names.

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Political Interest & Availability Heuristic

The availability heuristic has less influence on people who are highly interested in politics because they likely have more diverse information about the subject.

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Influence of Recent Memories

Our judgments and perceptions can be influenced by recent experiences and memories, even if they are not representative of the bigger picture.

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Critical Thinking

The ability to analyze information objectively, identify biases, and make well-informed decisions.

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Framing Effect

The tendency for our choices to be influenced by how a situation is presented, even if the underlying options are objectively the same.

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Wording of a Problem

The way a problem is described can significantly affect which option we choose, even if the options are logically equivalent.

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Asian Disease Problem

A classic study demonstrating the framing effect. Participants were presented with two versions of a disease outbreak scenario, with identical outcomes but different wording, leading to varying decisions.

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Problem 1 (Asian Disease)

Participants were told that a program would save 200 lives, framed as a positive outcome.

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Problem 2 (Asian Disease)

Participants were told that a program would result in 400 deaths, framed as a negative outcome.

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Background Context

The surrounding information or circumstances surrounding a decision can also bias our choices, even if the options themselves are objectively the same.

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Tversky and Kahneman

Psychologists who conducted the famous 'Asian Disease Problem' experiment, demonstrating the power of framing effects on decisions.

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Influence of Wording

The way information is presented can significantly impact our interpretations and decisions, even if the underlying information is the same.

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Logical Equivalence

Two options are logically equivalent if they lead to the same outcome, but the framing or wording can create a perception of difference.

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Matlin (2002)

A researcher who has studied the framing effect, highlighting its influence on decision-making.

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Hindsight Bias

The tendency to overestimate our ability to have predicted an event after it has happened. We often think 'I knew it all along' even if we didn't.

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Fischhoff's Study

A study where participants were asked to predict the accuracy of their answers before and after knowing the correct answer. The results showed that people were more confident about their answers after learning the truth.

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Heuristics and Biases Approach

A framework that studies how people make decisions and judgments. It focuses on mental shortcuts (heuristics) and systematic errors (biases) that can influence our thinking.

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What makes heuristics useful?

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help us make quick decisions. They can be valuable in situations where we need to act fast, but they are limited and can lead to errors.

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What's a cognitive bias?

A systematic error in thinking that influences our judgments and decisions. It can be caused by heuristics or other factors that distort our perceptions.

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Impact of the Heuristics and Biases Approach

Kahneman and Tversky's approach has significantly influenced the study of judgment and decision-making. It is widely used in research on psychology, economics, and other fields.

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What's the main idea?

The study of heuristics and biases helps us understand how people make decisions and why they sometimes make mistakes. These insights are helpful for improving decision-making in various fields.

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Study Notes

Decision-Making

  • Human lives involve many daily choices, some trivial, others life-altering
  • Decisions involve weighing costs and benefits, probabilities, personal desires, and beliefs
  • Risk and reward are significant factors influencing decisions
  • Tradition and emotional ties can influence choices
  • Making decisions can be complex due to various factors, sometimes leading to conflicts
  • Probability judgments affect decision-making, categorized as risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown probabilities)

Heuristics and Biases

  • Making decisions often requires using short-cuts called heuristics
  • Kahneman and Tversky developed the heuristics and biases approach to study decision-making errors and biases
  • Representativeness heuristic: Judging a person, object, or event based on similarity to a prototype or stereotype, often ignoring base rates
  • Availability heuristic: Relying on the ease of recalling information from memory to estimate probability, leading to overestimation of easily recalled events and underestimation of less easily recalled events
  • Anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Relying on an initial value (anchor) as a starting point when making estimations, adjusting the anchor insufficiently, leading to inaccuracies
  • Base rate fallacy: Ignoring the likelihood of an event occurring within a larger population (base rate)
  • Conjunction fallacy: Believing that the conjunction of two events is more likely than either event occurring alone
  • Simulation heuristic: Judging the likelihood of an event based on ease of imagining it, often leading to inaccurate judgements
  • Hindsight bias: Increased confidence in the correctness of a prediction after the outcome is known

Other Factors Influencing Judgements

  • Framing effect: How the presentation of a problem affects decision-making. For instance, wording a problem in terms of gains vs. losses will lead to different choices
  • Overconfidence: Perceiving higher accuracy in one's decisions than is actually the case. The level of confidence may vary based on the type of question and gender

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Decision-Making PDF

Description

Explore the intricacies of decision-making, focusing on how human lives are influenced by various factors such as risk, tradition, and emotional ties. Delve into the heuristics and biases developed by Kahneman and Tversky that shape our choices, including representativeness and availability heuristics.

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