Critical Thinking About Causality

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Questions and Answers

What is suggested about attractiveness and personality based on the dating experiences described?

Physical attractiveness and a beautiful personality are considered mutually exclusive. (correct)

Nice individuals are more often attractive than those who are not.

Attractiveness and personality are often positively correlated.

People generally prefer attractive partners regardless of personality.

What concept relates to conditioning on a third variable in causal diagrams?

Causal inference

Collider bias (correct)

Invariance principle

Correlational assumption

Which of the following statements about causal inference in quasi-experimental research is NOT true?

INUS conditions are irrelevant in understanding causal relationships. (correct)

Research designs can differ in how they handle counterfactual reasoning.

Causal inference can be derived from correlational data.

Threats to causal inference must be explicitly identified.

What is the primary focus of a causal diagram when discussing third variables?

To visually represent possible biases introduced by conditioning. Signup and view all the answers

Which term describes a condition that is necessary but not sufficient for an outcome in causal reasoning?

INUS condition Signup and view all the answers

What does a counterfactual imply in causal reasoning?

It suggests an alternative scenario that could have happened. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT one of John Stuart Mill's criteria for causality?

Harmfulness Signup and view all the answers

What is the main assertion made regarding correlation in relation to causation?

Correlation does not imply causation. Signup and view all the answers

Which statement correctly identifies the primary error in mistaking correlation for causation?

Neglecting to consider possible confounding variables. Signup and view all the answers

What is the role of a causal diagram in understanding causality?

To clearly define assumptions and identify potential confounding variables. Signup and view all the answers

What issue does Foster (2010) identify in developmental psychology regarding causality?

Authors often confuse correlation with causation. Signup and view all the answers

In the context of causal reasoning errors, what do counterfactuals refer to?

Hypothetical situations that could occur under different circumstances. Signup and view all the answers

What does the statement 'smoking doesn't kill' fail to address in causal reasoning?

The overwhelming evidence of smoking's dangers. Signup and view all the answers

Which scenario best illustrates the concept of 'priority' in causality?

A person developing a cough after smoking a cigarette. Signup and view all the answers

How might initiation intensity relate to familial preferences according to the diagram presented?

Families at the corps may or may not like being alone depending on the initiation intensity. Signup and view all the answers

What does the causal diagram effectively allow researchers to do?

Specify assumptions and identify confounds in their research. Signup and view all the answers

What does 'exclusivity' in causation emphasize?

Avoiding any alternative explanations for the outcome. Signup and view all the answers

How does the concept of 'beautiful personality' relate to dating perceptions mentioned?

There is often a believed trade-off between physical and personality attractiveness. Signup and view all the answers

In the context of causation, what can be inferred about the relationship between smoking and lung cancer?

Smoking is a significant risk factor but not the only cause. Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant threat to causal inference in research according to the provided material?

Existence of confounding variables. Signup and view all the answers

What is one possible outcome of ignoring causality in reports?

Both B and C. Signup and view all the answers

What is a common cause in the context of a third variable affecting the relationship between two other variables?

A variable that distorts the apparent relationship between the two variables Signup and view all the answers

Which diagram is helpful in recognizing mediators, common causes, and colliders?

A Causal Diagram Signup and view all the answers

In the context of Berkson's paradox, what does conditioning on a collider imply?

It introduces a spurious association between two variables Signup and view all the answers

What is an example of a mediator as per the given content?

Birth defect influencing child mortality Signup and view all the answers

In the Monty Hall problem, what does conditioning on the door that the host opens illustrate?

A hidden collider effect Signup and view all the answers

What does a common effect (collider) reveal about two independent variables?

It falsely correlates the two independent variables Signup and view all the answers

What is the effect of gender on admission outcomes according to the Berkeley admissions paradox?

Gender serves as a mediator affecting the admission likelihood Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best defines a mediator in causal relationships?

A variable that influences the effect of one variable on another Signup and view all the answers

Which statement best reflects the relationship between self-esteem and problematic academic achievements?

Improving self-esteem can lead to a disappearance of problems like drug abuse. Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' refer to in the context of causality?

It denotes that one event must precede another to establish causation. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes the criteria for establishing causality?

Causation is proven only if X precedes and is necessary for Y. Signup and view all the answers

In the context of eye movements, what is the primary cause of poor reading skills?

Abnormalities in oculomotor skills leading to more fixations. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements accurately represents the concept of exclusivity in causation?

Without X, Y cannot occur. Signup and view all the answers

How does low self-esteem correlate with issues like drug abuse or teenage pregnancy?

Low self-esteem is a common factor that influences these issues. Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'inversion of cause and effect' indicate?

Without X, Y does not exist in any form. Signup and view all the answers

Which statement addresses the complexity of identifying a single cause for an event?

Often, there are multiple factors that can be involved in causing one event. Signup and view all the answers

How do lower-class students potentially become more socially isolated according to Meehl's explanation?

By being perceived as lower-class and rejected from groups. Signup and view all the answers

What factor is posited to mediate the relationship between social activity and schizophrenia?

Social skills acquisition Signup and view all the answers

What does the 'common cause' imply in the context of causal relationships?

X and Y share a common cause Z, resulting in spurious relationships. Signup and view all the answers

Which scenario best illustrates a 'collider' in causal inference?

Rain causes both wet lawns and increased sprinkler usage. Signup and view all the answers

In terms of correlational analysis, what does conditioning on a collider suggest about the relationship between variables?

It may induce dependence between X and Y. Signup and view all the answers

What is a primary assumption when deciding whether to condition on a third variable in causal analysis?

The relationship among variables requires substantiation. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following scenarios represents a confounder in causal inference?

Age influencing both health and exercise levels. Signup and view all the answers

What effect does conditioning on a confounder have on the perceived relationship between two variables?

It controls for extraneous variability. Signup and view all the answers

In a causal diagram, what does the term 'confound' refer to?

An external variable that affects both X and Y, leading to biased estimates. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following correctly describes 'spurious' relationships?

Relationships that appear to be correlated but are actually influenced by external variables. Signup and view all the answers

What does a mediator do in a causal relationship?

It clarifies the pathway between an independent and a dependent variable. Signup and view all the answers

In the context of social activity and schizophrenia, how does Meehl theorize class influences this relationship?

Lower social activities in lower classes increase the risk of schizophrenia. Signup and view all the answers

What bias can arise when conditioning on colliders?

Positive bias leading to overestimation of effects. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Lecture 20: Critical Thinking About Causality

Hume's view on causation: Discussing the operations of body and brute matter, to investigate the idea of causation and necessity.
Correlation vs. Causation: Correlation does not imply causation. One must consider causal connections, causal reasoning errors, counterfactuals, and threats of causal inference.
Causal Reasoning Errors: Mistaking correlation for causation, post hoc ergo propter hoc, and inversion of cause and effect.
Criteria of Causality (John Stuart Mill): Priority (change X precedes change Y), Consistency (change X systematically varies with change Y), and Exclusivity (no alternative explanation for the relationship).
Types of Causal Relationships: Mediation, Moderation, and Common Cause / Collider Bias.
Causality and Counterfactuals: Perfect counterfactuals are impossible; research uses good counterfactuals by comparing observations with what would have happened if there were no manipulation.
Identifying Threats to Causal Inference:
- Outside factors (history, maturation).
- Selection effects (different criteria for treatment related to outcomes, attrition).
- Unintended effects of study itself (instrumentation, testing, regression to the mean).
INUS Conditions: Insufficient, non-redundant, unnecessary, and sufficient. A detailed example of a combination of conditions sufficient to produce fire to illustrate this.
Causal Diagrams: Used to visualize and understand the relationships between variables. Multiple examples given to illustrate specific kinds of causal relationships, including collider bias, common cause, and mediator / collider diagrams.

Additional Study Points

Researching causality in hazing/initiations: Study of the role of cognitive dissonance reduction and counterfactual. Specific example given to illustrate the procedure.
Importance of specifying relationships between variables to distinguish between causation and correlation.
Issues with "swamps of ambiguity" and research around psychological causality.
The Berkeley admissions paradox to identify and understand the implications of collider bias
Different types of causal diagrams and causal relationships (mediator, common cause, collider bias) and their implications for research.
Detailed examples of how to analyze and identify the implications of causal diagrams provided.

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Description

Explore the nuances of causation in this quiz, focusing on Hume's perspective and the critical difference between correlation and causation. You'll learn about causal reasoning errors and the criteria set forth by John Stuart Mill for establishing causal relationships. Delve into various types of causal relationships and the complexities of counterfactual reasoning.