Podcast
Questions and Answers
John Clarke's quote, "Early to bed and early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise," is used to introduce what broader statistical concept?
John Clarke's quote, "Early to bed and early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise," is used to introduce what broader statistical concept?
- The necessity of drawing summary statements about health, wealth and wisdom.
- The challenge of determining causality versus correlation between observed properties. (correct)
- The importance of directly measuring health, wealth and wisdom using a variety of methods.
- How early bedtime causally leads to improvements in wealth status.
What is the primary limitation of only measuring and summarizing data, without further analysis?
What is the primary limitation of only measuring and summarizing data, without further analysis?
- It is impossible to get participation from a wide sample of subjects.
- It does not allow for any kind of pictorial representation of the sample.
- It is impossible to accurately measure the sample's health, wealth and wisdom.
- It prevents drawing conclusions about causal relationships between variables. (correct)
If a researcher observes that students who sleep more hours tend to recall more country names, what statistical technique would best help determine if there's a relationship (but not necessarily causal) between these variables?
If a researcher observes that students who sleep more hours tend to recall more country names, what statistical technique would best help determine if there's a relationship (but not necessarily causal) between these variables?
- Descriptive statistics (mean, median, mode)
- Causal inference modeling
- Frequency distribution analysis
- Correlation analysis (correct)
A researcher collects data on hours of sleep and the number of countries named in one minute. Why is it premature to conclude that sleep deprivation causes poor memory based solely on this data?
A researcher collects data on hours of sleep and the number of countries named in one minute. Why is it premature to conclude that sleep deprivation causes poor memory based solely on this data?
A study finds a strong positive correlation between hours of sleep and cognitive function. What conclusion can be reliably drawn from this finding?
A study finds a strong positive correlation between hours of sleep and cognitive function. What conclusion can be reliably drawn from this finding?
What does establishing 'causation' between two variables require, beyond simply observing a correlation?
What does establishing 'causation' between two variables require, beyond simply observing a correlation?
A researcher wants to investigate whether a new study technique causes better exam scores. Which research design would be most appropriate for establishing causation?
A researcher wants to investigate whether a new study technique causes better exam scores. Which research design would be most appropriate for establishing causation?
A study shows a correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates. Based on this, what is the most appropriate conclusion?
A study shows a correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates. Based on this, what is the most appropriate conclusion?
Which of the following best describes a variable, as defined in the text?
Which of the following best describes a variable, as defined in the text?
What is the key characteristic of synchronized patterns of variation between two variables?
What is the key characteristic of synchronized patterns of variation between two variables?
How does the concept of correlation enable us to make predictions?
How does the concept of correlation enable us to make predictions?
Why are predictions based on correlations not always perfectly accurate?
Why are predictions based on correlations not always perfectly accurate?
What does the direction of a correlation indicate?
What does the direction of a correlation indicate?
What is a positive correlation?
What is a positive correlation?
What does the correlation coefficient, denoted as 'r', measure?
What does the correlation coefficient, denoted as 'r', measure?
What is the possible range of values for the correlation coefficient 'r'?
What is the possible range of values for the correlation coefficient 'r'?
If the correlation coefficient 'r' between height and weight is 0.8, what can you infer?
If the correlation coefficient 'r' between height and weight is 0.8, what can you infer?
Which of the following is an example of a negative correlation?
Which of the following is an example of a negative correlation?
What does it mean if two variables have a correlation coefficient (r) close to 0?
What does it mean if two variables have a correlation coefficient (r) close to 0?
Why is understanding correlation valuable despite its limitations in predicting outcomes?
Why is understanding correlation valuable despite its limitations in predicting outcomes?
If a study finds a strong positive correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates, what is the most accurate interpretation?
If a study finds a strong positive correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates, what is the most accurate interpretation?
In the context of research, what is the primary benefit of identifying correlations between variables?
In the context of research, what is the primary benefit of identifying correlations between variables?
A researcher observes that students who attend more classes tend to have higher grades. What can they appropriately conclude based solely on this observation?
A researcher observes that students who attend more classes tend to have higher grades. What can they appropriately conclude based solely on this observation?
In an experiment designed to test the effect of a new drug on reaction time, what would be the independent variable?
In an experiment designed to test the effect of a new drug on reaction time, what would be the independent variable?
In an experiment, what is the primary purpose of manipulating a variable?
In an experiment, what is the primary purpose of manipulating a variable?
Why is comparing the measurements of a dependent variable across different conditions essential in experimental research?
Why is comparing the measurements of a dependent variable across different conditions essential in experimental research?
A researcher is studying the effect of room temperature on test performance. One group takes a test in a cold room, and another group takes the same test in a warm room. What is the dependent variable?
A researcher is studying the effect of room temperature on test performance. One group takes a test in a cold room, and another group takes the same test in a warm room. What is the dependent variable?
What distinguishes an experiment from observational studies in determining causality?
What distinguishes an experiment from observational studies in determining causality?
In the context of experimentation, what does 'manipulation' specifically involve?
In the context of experimentation, what does 'manipulation' specifically involve?
A company wants to know if a new website design will lead to more sales. They split their traffic, sending half to the old site and half to the new one. What is the independent variable in this experiment?
A company wants to know if a new website design will lead to more sales. They split their traffic, sending half to the old site and half to the new one. What is the independent variable in this experiment?
Which of the following best describes the relationship between the independent and dependent variables in an experiment?
Which of the following best describes the relationship between the independent and dependent variables in an experiment?
Why is it important for the independent variable to be determined entirely by the experimenter?
Why is it important for the independent variable to be determined entirely by the experimenter?
In an experiment studying the impact of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance, participants are either allowed to sleep normally or are kept awake for 24 hours. What constitutes the 'conditions' in this scenario?
In an experiment studying the impact of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance, participants are either allowed to sleep normally or are kept awake for 24 hours. What constitutes the 'conditions' in this scenario?
A researcher wants to study the effect of a new fertilizer on plant growth. They apply the fertilizer to one group of plants and not to another. The group that does not receive the fertilizer is the:
A researcher wants to study the effect of a new fertilizer on plant growth. They apply the fertilizer to one group of plants and not to another. The group that does not receive the fertilizer is the:
What is the primary benefit of using an experimental design to study the relationship between media violence and aggression, compared to observational studies?
What is the primary benefit of using an experimental design to study the relationship between media violence and aggression, compared to observational studies?
A website is testing two versions of a landing page. Version A shows a customer testimonial, while Version B does not. They measure the conversion rate (percentage of visitors who make a purchase) for each version. What is the dependent variable?
A website is testing two versions of a landing page. Version A shows a customer testimonial, while Version B does not. They measure the conversion rate (percentage of visitors who make a purchase) for each version. What is the dependent variable?
Consider a study where participants are given different doses of caffeine to test its effect on alertness. Which of the following represents a manipulation in this experiment?
Consider a study where participants are given different doses of caffeine to test its effect on alertness. Which of the following represents a manipulation in this experiment?
In an experiment, what is the primary reason for dividing participants into different 'conditions'?
In an experiment, what is the primary reason for dividing participants into different 'conditions'?
A researcher observes a correlation between the number of hours students spend studying and their exam scores. What is the most significant limitation of concluding that more study time directly causes higher scores?
A researcher observes a correlation between the number of hours students spend studying and their exam scores. What is the most significant limitation of concluding that more study time directly causes higher scores?
Which of these scenarios best illustrates the 'third-variable problem' in correlational research?
Which of these scenarios best illustrates the 'third-variable problem' in correlational research?
To establish a causal relationship between media violence and aggression, what is the primary advantage of using experimentation over observational studies?
To establish a causal relationship between media violence and aggression, what is the primary advantage of using experimentation over observational studies?
In the context of research methodology, what is the purpose of 'manipulation' in an experiment?
In the context of research methodology, what is the purpose of 'manipulation' in an experiment?
A researcher is investigating whether a new drug improves memory. Participants in the experimental group receive the drug, while those in the control group receive a placebo. What is the purpose of the placebo in this experiment?
A researcher is investigating whether a new drug improves memory. Participants in the experimental group receive the drug, while those in the control group receive a placebo. What is the purpose of the placebo in this experiment?
A study finds a correlation between the number of firefighters at a fire and the amount of damage caused by the fire. Which of the following is the most likely explanation for this correlation, considering the third-variable problem?
A study finds a correlation between the number of firefighters at a fire and the amount of damage caused by the fire. Which of the following is the most likely explanation for this correlation, considering the third-variable problem?
In an experiment, why is random assignment of participants to different conditions important?
In an experiment, why is random assignment of participants to different conditions important?
What is the key difference between a correlational study and an experimental study?
What is the key difference between a correlational study and an experimental study?
A researcher wants to determine if a new fertilizer increases crop yield. They plant crops in multiple plots, applying the fertilizer to some plots and not to others, and then measure the yield. What additional step is crucial to making this an experiment rather than simply an observation?
A researcher wants to determine if a new fertilizer increases crop yield. They plant crops in multiple plots, applying the fertilizer to some plots and not to others, and then measure the yield. What additional step is crucial to making this an experiment rather than simply an observation?
In the context of identifying causality, what does the statement 'Correlation does not equal causation' primarily warn against?
In the context of identifying causality, what does the statement 'Correlation does not equal causation' primarily warn against?
A soft drink company runs a promotion giving away free merchandise with purchases. Sales increase during the promotion. What is a potential third variable that could explain the increase?
A soft drink company runs a promotion giving away free merchandise with purchases. Sales increase during the promotion. What is a potential third variable that could explain the increase?
In an experiment examining the effect of sleep on test performance, a researcher notices that participants who slept longer also had more time to study. What is this an example of?
In an experiment examining the effect of sleep on test performance, a researcher notices that participants who slept longer also had more time to study. What is this an example of?
How does manipulation help establish causation?
How does manipulation help establish causation?
What is the problem with interpreting natural correlations?
What is the problem with interpreting natural correlations?
A study finds a correlation between shoe size and reading ability in elementary school children. What is the most likely confounding variable?
A study finds a correlation between shoe size and reading ability in elementary school children. What is the most likely confounding variable?
In the context of experimental design, what is the primary issue caused by allowing participants to self-select their experimental condition?
In the context of experimental design, what is the primary issue caused by allowing participants to self-select their experimental condition?
Why does flipping a coin help control for confounding variables in experimental design?
Why does flipping a coin help control for confounding variables in experimental design?
In an experiment, if children who choose to play violent video games at the start of a study also exhibit higher levels of aggression, what threat to internal validity is most likely present?
In an experiment, if children who choose to play violent video games at the start of a study also exhibit higher levels of aggression, what threat to internal validity is most likely present?
What is the key advantage of random assignment in experimental research?
What is the key advantage of random assignment in experimental research?
Why is it difficult to establish a causal link between buying self-help books and recovery rates from illnesses?
Why is it difficult to establish a causal link between buying self-help books and recovery rates from illnesses?
What does the phrase 'the independent variable was not truly independent' mean in the context of the video game experiment?
What does the phrase 'the independent variable was not truly independent' mean in the context of the video game experiment?
What is the most accurate interpretation of the statement, 'Apparently, it just doesn’t pay to be polite'?
What is the most accurate interpretation of the statement, 'Apparently, it just doesn’t pay to be polite'?
Imagine a study finds a correlation between time spent on social media and increased feelings of loneliness. Why can't the researchers definitively conclude that social media causes loneliness, based solely on this correlation?
Imagine a study finds a correlation between time spent on social media and increased feelings of loneliness. Why can't the researchers definitively conclude that social media causes loneliness, based solely on this correlation?
In the Facebook example, the rise of the AfD party on Facebook correlated with hate crimes in Germany. What is the most significant limitation in concluding that Facebook directly caused the hate crimes?
In the Facebook example, the rise of the AfD party on Facebook correlated with hate crimes in Germany. What is the most significant limitation in concluding that Facebook directly caused the hate crimes?
If researchers find that students who use a particular study app perform better on exams, what is a potential self-selection issue that could weaken the conclusion that the app improves exam performance?
If researchers find that students who use a particular study app perform better on exams, what is a potential self-selection issue that could weaken the conclusion that the app improves exam performance?
A researcher wants to study the effectiveness of a new therapy for anxiety. Participants are allowed to choose whether they receive the new therapy or continue with their existing treatment. What problem might arise?
A researcher wants to study the effectiveness of a new therapy for anxiety. Participants are allowed to choose whether they receive the new therapy or continue with their existing treatment. What problem might arise?
In a study examining the impact of exercise on mood, participants who regularly exercise are compared to those who don't. What is the most significant self-selection bias likely to affect such a study?
In a study examining the impact of exercise on mood, participants who regularly exercise are compared to those who don't. What is the most significant self-selection bias likely to affect such a study?
When is random assignment most crucial in experimental design?
When is random assignment most crucial in experimental design?
How does random assignment address the issue of potential third variables in an experiment?
How does random assignment address the issue of potential third variables in an experiment?
What is the purpose of random assignment?
What is the purpose of random assignment?
In the study examining the relationship between anti-refugee Facebook posts and violent crimes, what critical advantage did German internet service interruptions provide to the researchers?
In the study examining the relationship between anti-refugee Facebook posts and violent crimes, what critical advantage did German internet service interruptions provide to the researchers?
What is the MOST accurate interpretation of the statement 'p < .05' in psychological research?
What is the MOST accurate interpretation of the statement 'p < .05' in psychological research?
How does random assignment address the third-variable problem in experimental research?
How does random assignment address the third-variable problem in experimental research?
Why is it important for psychologists to calculate the probability that differences between experimental conditions are due to chance?
Why is it important for psychologists to calculate the probability that differences between experimental conditions are due to chance?
In the context of research methods, what is the PRIMARY purpose of random assignment?
In the context of research methods, what is the PRIMARY purpose of random assignment?
What does it mean when researchers state that 'random assignment has failed' in an experiment?
What does it mean when researchers state that 'random assignment has failed' in an experiment?
Why did Luis Alvarez use probability theory after experiencing a startling coincidence?
Why did Luis Alvarez use probability theory after experiencing a startling coincidence?
According to the content, why are people prone to underestimating the likelihood of coincidences?
According to the content, why are people prone to underestimating the likelihood of coincidences?
Why is establishing causation in real-world settings a challenge for psychologists?
Why is establishing causation in real-world settings a challenge for psychologists?
In the context of experimental design, what does 'internal validity' primarily ensure?
In the context of experimental design, what does 'internal validity' primarily ensure?
What is the MOST significant limitation of relying solely on correlational data to understand the relationship between two variables?
What is the MOST significant limitation of relying solely on correlational data to understand the relationship between two variables?
What is the significance of the phrase 'as we defined that variable' when drawing conclusions from an experiment?
What is the significance of the phrase 'as we defined that variable' when drawing conclusions from an experiment?
In the study about hate speech and hate crimes, which aspect of the research design MOST strengthened the causal inference?
In the study about hate speech and hate crimes, which aspect of the research design MOST strengthened the causal inference?
What does 'external validity' refer to in the context of experimental design?
What does 'external validity' refer to in the context of experimental design?
What PRIMARY problem does random assignment aim to solve?
What PRIMARY problem does random assignment aim to solve?
Why is it inappropriate to broadly conclude that 'media violence causes aggressiveness' based solely on a single experiment?
Why is it inappropriate to broadly conclude that 'media violence causes aggressiveness' based solely on a single experiment?
If a study finds a statistically significant result, but random assignment has failed, what is the MOST appropriate conclusion?
If a study finds a statistically significant result, but random assignment has failed, what is the MOST appropriate conclusion?
A researcher finds a correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates. What is the MOST likely explanation for this correlation?
A researcher finds a correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates. What is the MOST likely explanation for this correlation?
How could the operational definition of 'exposure to media violence' influence the results of an experiment?
How could the operational definition of 'exposure to media violence' influence the results of an experiment?
What is the main point of the 'birthday problem' example (betting that two people in a group share a birthday)?
What is the main point of the 'birthday problem' example (betting that two people in a group share a birthday)?
In experimental design, what is the benefit of manipulating a variable in a laboratory setting, compared to observing naturally occurring correlations?
In experimental design, what is the benefit of manipulating a variable in a laboratory setting, compared to observing naturally occurring correlations?
In the account of coincidences, what key element transforms a simple coincidence into a seemingly significant or 'spooky' event?
In the account of coincidences, what key element transforms a simple coincidence into a seemingly significant or 'spooky' event?
What is the PRIMARY reason psychologists use statistical tests?
What is the PRIMARY reason psychologists use statistical tests?
What is the BEST way to address the problem of failed random assignment?
What is the BEST way to address the problem of failed random assignment?
When an experiment has high internal validity and finds a statistically significant result (p < .05), what specific kind of conclusion is justified?
When an experiment has high internal validity and finds a statistically significant result (p < .05), what specific kind of conclusion is justified?
Why might operational definitions used in an experiment not fully represent real-world scenarios?
Why might operational definitions used in an experiment not fully represent real-world scenarios?
According to the content, what would be 'the most astonishingly incredible coincidence imaginable'?
According to the content, what would be 'the most astonishingly incredible coincidence imaginable'?
What is the significance of acknowledging 'in the people we studied' when drawing conclusions about causality from experiments?
What is the significance of acknowledging 'in the people we studied' when drawing conclusions about causality from experiments?
How does the text suggest you could exploit people's misunderstanding of coincidences for personal gain?
How does the text suggest you could exploit people's misunderstanding of coincidences for personal gain?
What does the example of the potato in a restaurant from Idaho illustrate in the context of coincidences?
What does the example of the potato in a restaurant from Idaho illustrate in the context of coincidences?
What is the defining characteristic of random sampling?
What is the defining characteristic of random sampling?
Why is a sample obtained through random sampling considered valuable in research?
Why is a sample obtained through random sampling considered valuable in research?
In the context of research, what does it mean to 'generalize from the sample to the population'?
In the context of research, what does it mean to 'generalize from the sample to the population'?
Why does the cherry-picking example illustrate the importance of random sampling?
Why does the cherry-picking example illustrate the importance of random sampling?
What is a common limitation of psychological studies regarding sampling?
What is a common limitation of psychological studies regarding sampling?
According to the content, what percentage of people that psychologists study come from countries that have just 12% of the world’s population?
According to the content, what percentage of people that psychologists study come from countries that have just 12% of the world’s population?
Why is the heavy reliance on WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) populations a potential problem for generalizing psychological findings?
Why is the heavy reliance on WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) populations a potential problem for generalizing psychological findings?
Why might psychologists choose to use nonrandom samples despite the limitations?
Why might psychologists choose to use nonrandom samples despite the limitations?
In what circumstances might the representativeness of a sample not be critically important in a study?
In what circumstances might the representativeness of a sample not be critically important in a study?
In research, what does the term 'external validity' primarily refer to?
In research, what does the term 'external validity' primarily refer to?
The example about the pig flying over the Calgary Saddledome illustrates what principle?
The example about the pig flying over the Calgary Saddledome illustrates what principle?
Why do most psychology experiments not prioritize external validity, despite its apparent importance?
Why do most psychology experiments not prioritize external validity, despite its apparent importance?
What question should researchers ask themselves to determine if the representativeness of their sample is a reasonable assumption?
What question should researchers ask themselves to determine if the representativeness of their sample is a reasonable assumption?
In the context of a physics experiment testing the relationship between molecular motion and temperature, why is the artificiality of using lasers to slow molecules not a major concern?
In the context of a physics experiment testing the relationship between molecular motion and temperature, why is the artificiality of using lasers to slow molecules not a major concern?
How do well-constructed theories contribute to the design and interpretation of experiments?
How do well-constructed theories contribute to the design and interpretation of experiments?
Why might the effects of a new medicine tested on a nonrandom sample of mice still be relevant to humans?
Why might the effects of a new medicine tested on a nonrandom sample of mice still be relevant to humans?
The 1948 election polling demonstrates what potential pitfall in research?
The 1948 election polling demonstrates what potential pitfall in research?
What conclusion can be drawn if children playing a violent video game in a lab setting exhibit more aggressive behavior compared to children playing a non-violent game?
What conclusion can be drawn if children playing a violent video game in a lab setting exhibit more aggressive behavior compared to children playing a non-violent game?
The example of the 1948 US election where polls predicted Dewey would defeat Truman illustrates:
The example of the 1948 US election where polls predicted Dewey would defeat Truman illustrates:
How would you describe the primary purpose of most psychology experiments?
How would you describe the primary purpose of most psychology experiments?
What is the 'case method' in psychological research, and when is it most likely to be used?
What is the 'case method' in psychological research, and when is it most likely to be used?
According to the content, what is a better option, learning about some people or learning about no people?
According to the content, what is a better option, learning about some people or learning about no people?
In the rat experiment described, what critical realization did the failures to replicate the original 'fear learning' lead scientists to?
In the rat experiment described, what critical realization did the failures to replicate the original 'fear learning' lead scientists to?
Why do psychologists generally prefer larger sample sizes in their research studies?
Why do psychologists generally prefer larger sample sizes in their research studies?
What is a common misconception about scientific phenomena?
What is a common misconception about scientific phenomena?
Why might a psychologist choose to study an individual with exceptional memory abilities, such as someone who has memorized a vast number of digits of pi?
Why might a psychologist choose to study an individual with exceptional memory abilities, such as someone who has memorized a vast number of digits of pi?
How do real-world limitations, such as limited time and resources, affect the sample sizes used in psychological research?
How do real-world limitations, such as limited time and resources, affect the sample sizes used in psychological research?
How does the author characterize the role of replication failures in scientific discovery?
How does the author characterize the role of replication failures in scientific discovery?
In the broader context of scientific inquiry, what does the author suggest is the primary goal of science?
In the broader context of scientific inquiry, what does the author suggest is the primary goal of science?
Considering the equation $0 < n < N$, what do 'n' and 'N' represent in the context of psychological research?
Considering the equation $0 < n < N$, what do 'n' and 'N' represent in the context of psychological research?
A researcher aims to study the effects of a novel teaching method on student performance. To ensure the results are not due to chance, what factor related to sample size should they consider?
A researcher aims to study the effects of a novel teaching method on student performance. To ensure the results are not due to chance, what factor related to sample size should they consider?
In the context of the rat experiment and the concept of 'fear learning,' what does altering the cage design to allow running away, instead of freezing, demonstrate?
In the context of the rat experiment and the concept of 'fear learning,' what does altering the cage design to allow running away, instead of freezing, demonstrate?
What is the most direct way to address concerns about whether experimental results apply to real-world scenarios?
What is the most direct way to address concerns about whether experimental results apply to real-world scenarios?
What does the author imply about the psychology field, regarding the notion of a reproducibility crisis?
What does the author imply about the psychology field, regarding the notion of a reproducibility crisis?
If a psychologist aims to replicate an experiment but fails, what approach does the author suggest they should take?
If a psychologist aims to replicate an experiment but fails, what approach does the author suggest they should take?
In what situation would a psychologist most likely use the case study method over a large sample study?
In what situation would a psychologist most likely use the case study method over a large sample study?
How does the real-world example of 'the sky is blue' support the author's argument about context in science?
How does the real-world example of 'the sky is blue' support the author's argument about context in science?
How does the use of theories impact the development and execution of psychological experiments?
How does the use of theories impact the development and execution of psychological experiments?
Why is it difficult to determine the actual replication rate of studies in psychology?
Why is it difficult to determine the actual replication rate of studies in psychology?
What is a Type I error in research?
What is a Type I error in research?
Why is a 100% replication rate not necessarily the ideal goal in scientific research?
Why is a 100% replication rate not necessarily the ideal goal in scientific research?
How are Type I and Type II errors related?
How are Type I and Type II errors related?
What does the analogy of a home security system illustrate about Type I and Type II errors?
What does the analogy of a home security system illustrate about Type I and Type II errors?
What is the best definition of a replication in scientific research?
What is the best definition of a replication in scientific research?
Why might a replication study fail to reproduce the results of the original study, even if the original study was not a 'fluke'?
Why might a replication study fail to reproduce the results of the original study, even if the original study was not a 'fluke'?
In the context of research, what are 'flukes' and 'flunks'?
In the context of research, what are 'flukes' and 'flunks'?
Why does the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine disagree with the assessment that psychology is in a state of 'crisis' regarding replication?
Why does the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine disagree with the assessment that psychology is in a state of 'crisis' regarding replication?
What is one reason why some studies are labeled as 'bad replications'?
What is one reason why some studies are labeled as 'bad replications'?
Which of the following research findings would be most concerning from a replication standpoint?
Which of the following research findings would be most concerning from a replication standpoint?
A researcher aims to study the effect of a new teaching method on student performance. To minimize Type I error, the researcher should:
A researcher aims to study the effect of a new teaching method on student performance. To minimize Type I error, the researcher should:
A pharmaceutical company is testing a new drug. They want to minimize the chance of missing a potentially life-saving medication (i.e., minimize Type II error). What action should they take during their clinical trials?
A pharmaceutical company is testing a new drug. They want to minimize the chance of missing a potentially life-saving medication (i.e., minimize Type II error). What action should they take during their clinical trials?
What does it mean for a research finding to be statistically significant at an alpha level of 0.05?
What does it mean for a research finding to be statistically significant at an alpha level of 0.05?
In the context of hypothesis testing, what real-world scenario best illustrates a Type I error?
In the context of hypothesis testing, what real-world scenario best illustrates a Type I error?
What strategy would a psychologist employ if they wanted to minimize Type II errors in their research?
What strategy would a psychologist employ if they wanted to minimize Type II errors in their research?
What does a high replication rate in psychological research primarily suggest about the findings?
What does a high replication rate in psychological research primarily suggest about the findings?
Imagine a study aiming to prove that a new drug improves memory. If the researchers decide to prioritize avoiding Type I errors, what is a likely consequence?
Imagine a study aiming to prove that a new drug improves memory. If the researchers decide to prioritize avoiding Type I errors, what is a likely consequence?
In the context of research methodology, what does the term 'replication' refer to?
In the context of research methodology, what does the term 'replication' refer to?
According to Lisa Feldman Barrett, what does a failure to replicate in scientific studies necessarily indicate?
According to Lisa Feldman Barrett, what does a failure to replicate in scientific studies necessarily indicate?
How did the discovery that a gene for curly wings in fruit flies only worked in the lab contribute to biological understanding?
How did the discovery that a gene for curly wings in fruit flies only worked in the lab contribute to biological understanding?
Why is it impossible to achieve 100% certainty about a causal relationship between two variables, even with strong experimental evidence?
Why is it impossible to achieve 100% certainty about a causal relationship between two variables, even with strong experimental evidence?
How does prioritizing the avoidance of Type I errors affect the risk of committing Type II errors, and vice versa?
How does prioritizing the avoidance of Type I errors affect the risk of committing Type II errors, and vice versa?
What is the implication if psychology research had a 100% replication rate?
What is the implication if psychology research had a 100% replication rate?
How did physicists respond when subatomic particles didn't obey Newton's laws of motion?
How did physicists respond when subatomic particles didn't obey Newton's laws of motion?
In fear learning experiments with rats, what context change might lead to a failure to replicate the learned fear response?
In fear learning experiments with rats, what context change might lead to a failure to replicate the learned fear response?
What is the main lesson derived from the example of the 'Reproducibility Project' and its findings in psychology?
What is the main lesson derived from the example of the 'Reproducibility Project' and its findings in psychology?
Beyond the idea of merely repeating studies, what additional element does replication emphasize in scientific investigation?
Beyond the idea of merely repeating studies, what additional element does replication emphasize in scientific investigation?
What is the best course of action that scientists are advised to take after study A produces the predicted phenomenon, but study B does not?
What is the best course of action that scientists are advised to take after study A produces the predicted phenomenon, but study B does not?
Flashcards
Correlation
Correlation
A method to identify if two variables are related.
"Early to bed..."
"Early to bed..."
A suggested relationship: Early to bed, early to rise makes a person healthy, wealthy, and wise.
Correlation Goal
Correlation Goal
To find if two properties are actually related to each other.
Causation Goal
Causation Goal
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Sleep and Memory Data
Sleep and Memory Data
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Memory Measurement
Memory Measurement
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Causal Relationship
Causal Relationship
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Measurement Limitations
Measurement Limitations
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Variables
Variables
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Predictive Power of Correlations
Predictive Power of Correlations
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Positive Correlation
Positive Correlation
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Negative Correlation
Negative Correlation
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Correlation Coefficient (r)
Correlation Coefficient (r)
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r = 1
r = 1
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r = -1
r = -1
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r = 0
r = 0
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Strength of Correlation
Strength of Correlation
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Pattern Recognition
Pattern Recognition
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Making Educated Guesses
Making Educated Guesses
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Example of Variables
Example of Variables
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Variation
Variation
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Range of r
Range of r
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r = 1: Perfect Positive Correlation
r = 1: Perfect Positive Correlation
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r = -1: Perfect Negative Correlation
r = -1: Perfect Negative Correlation
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r = 0: No Correlation
r = 0: No Correlation
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Imperfect Positive Correlation
Imperfect Positive Correlation
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r Value as Exceptions
r Value as Exceptions
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Strong Correlation
Strong Correlation
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Effect of More Exceptions on 'r'
Effect of More Exceptions on 'r'
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r = 0: Prediction Accuracy
r = 0: Prediction Accuracy
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r: Direction and Strength
r: Direction and Strength
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Closer to Zero
Closer to Zero
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Scatter plots
Scatter plots
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Closer to One
Closer to One
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Manipulation (in research)
Manipulation (in research)
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Condition (in an experiment)
Condition (in an experiment)
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Independent Variable
Independent Variable
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Dependent Variable
Dependent Variable
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Experimentation
Experimentation
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Manipulate (variable)
Manipulate (variable)
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Measure (variable)
Measure (variable)
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Compare (in experiments)
Compare (in experiments)
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Step 1 of Experimentation
Step 1 of Experimentation
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Step 2 of Experimentation
Step 2 of Experimentation
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Step 3 of Experimentation
Step 3 of Experimentation
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Random Assignment
Random Assignment
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Consistent conditions (Experiment)
Consistent conditions (Experiment)
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Experimental Group
Experimental Group
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Control Group
Control Group
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Self-Selection Bias
Self-Selection Bias
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Purpose of Random Assignment
Purpose of Random Assignment
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Third Variable Problem
Third Variable Problem
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Video Game Assignment
Video Game Assignment
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Definition of Random Assignment
Definition of Random Assignment
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Random Assignment Benefit
Random Assignment Benefit
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Experiment Difference
Experiment Difference
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Experiment Equal Numbers
Experiment Equal Numbers
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Assignments of Violent Video Games
Assignments of Violent Video Games
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The Creation of Facebook
The Creation of Facebook
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Facebook Actions
Facebook Actions
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Germany Study Facebook Presence
Germany Study Facebook Presence
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Facebook Benefits
Facebook Benefits
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Natural Correlation
Natural Correlation
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Causes of Correlation
Causes of Correlation
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Eliminating Causes in Experiments
Eliminating Causes in Experiments
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Techniques in Experimentation
Techniques in Experimentation
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Manipulation
Manipulation
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Equal Probability
Equal Probability
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Causation
Causation
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Natural manipulation
Natural manipulation
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Real-world Correlation Limitation
Real-world Correlation Limitation
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Laboratory Causation Limitation
Laboratory Causation Limitation
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Roughly equal
Roughly equal
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Random Assignment Failure
Random Assignment Failure
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Statistical testing
Statistical testing
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P-value
P-value
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Statistical significance
Statistical significance
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Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
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Calculating Odds
Calculating Odds
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Random assignment is not perfect
Random assignment is not perfect
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Truly Amazing Coincidence
Truly Amazing Coincidence
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Underestimating Coincidences
Underestimating Coincidences
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Internal Validity
Internal Validity
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Operational Definitions
Operational Definitions
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External Validity
External Validity
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Representative Definition
Representative Definition
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"As We Defined That Variable"
"As We Defined That Variable"
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"In the People We Studied"
"In the People We Studied"
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"It is Likely That"
"It is Likely That"
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Operational Definition
Operational Definition
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Real-World Definition
Real-World Definition
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Defining Violence
Defining Violence
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Defining Aggressiveness
Defining Aggressiveness
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Group of 24 People
Group of 24 People
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Shared Birthday
Shared Birthday
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Representative Variables
Representative Variables
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Case Method
Case Method
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Population (N)
Population (N)
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Sample (n)
Sample (n)
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N
N
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n
n
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Sample size importance
Sample size importance
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Aggressiveness Hypothesis
Aggressiveness Hypothesis
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Purpose of Experiments
Purpose of Experiments
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Theories and Hypotheses
Theories and Hypotheses
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Experiments and Real Life
Experiments and Real Life
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Theory of Heat
Theory of Heat
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Falsifiable Hypothesis
Falsifiable Hypothesis
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Sample (n)
Sample (n)
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Fear Learning
Fear Learning
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Universal Law Assumption
Universal Law Assumption
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Context
Context
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Replication
Replication
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Uncertainty of Threat
Uncertainty of Threat
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Failure to Replicate
Failure to Replicate
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Science
Science
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Context Matters
Context Matters
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Random Sampling
Random Sampling
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Representative Sample
Representative Sample
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Generalization
Generalization
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Nonrandom Samples
Nonrandom Samples
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Volunteer Bias
Volunteer Bias
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Sample Representativeness
Sample Representativeness
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Existence Proof
Existence Proof
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Reasonable Assumption
Reasonable Assumption
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Generalization Errors
Generalization Errors
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Sampling Bias
Sampling Bias
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Prediction Errors
Prediction Errors
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Limited Scope Conclusion
Limited Scope Conclusion
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Convenience Samples
Convenience Samples
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Replication Crisis
Replication Crisis
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Non-representative samples
Non-representative samples
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Type I Error
Type I Error
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Type II Error
Type II Error
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Fluke
Fluke
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Flunk
Flunk
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Error Trade-off
Error Trade-off
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Ideal Replication
Ideal Replication
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False Negative
False Negative
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False Positive
False Positive
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Ideal results
Ideal results
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Replication Rate
Replication Rate
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Unrepresentative study
Unrepresentative study
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Bad Replications
Bad Replications
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Type I Error (Fluke)
Type I Error (Fluke)
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Type II Error (Flunk)
Type II Error (Flunk)
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Statistical Power
Statistical Power
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Error Balance
Error Balance
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False Conclusion
False Conclusion
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Missed Discovery
Missed Discovery
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Likely Causal Relationship
Likely Causal Relationship
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Conditional Truth
Conditional Truth
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Failure Isn't Fatal
Failure Isn't Fatal
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Conflicting results
Conflicting results
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Error Balance
Error Balance
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Replicability
Replicability
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Study Notes
- In 1639, John Clarke suggested that early rising leads to health, wealth, and wisdom.
- Techniques exist to measure these traits and describe them, but cannot determine if early rising causes them.
- The text explores techniques to determine relationships between properties like wisdom and bedtime.
- It examines techniques to determine if one property (bedtime) causes another (wisdom).
- Conclusion drawing looks at what these techniques can and cannot tell us.
Correlation
- Initial assumptions based on measurements instantly reveal patterns
- Sleep deprivation can lead to poor memory
Synchronized Patterns of Variation
- Measuring variables involves identifying properties capable of assuming various values.
- A variable's value can fluctuate, such as the number of days in a month or insect legs.
- The quantity of days per week remains constant at seven
- The number of syllables in a haiku is always 17.
- When students are questioned about sleep, their responses vary, ranging from 0 to 24.
- When asked how many countries they can name, students can name between 0 and 195.
- Measurements are taken repeatedly to observe patterns.
- Patterns of variation in columns displaying similar changes are synchronized.
- Correlation: When variations in one variable align with variations in another.
- When two variables show synchronized patterns, they are considered correlated
- Correlated variables allow prediction of one variable's value based on the other, saving time and effort.
- Correlations enable informed estimations without the need for direct measurement.
- Though beneficial, correlations do not guarantee perfect accuracy in predictions.
Measuring the Direction and Strength of a Correlation
- Statisticians assess prediction accuracy via correlation direction and strength measurements.
- Correlation direction is either positive or negative.
- Positive correlation: More of one variable aligns with more of another.
- Negative correlation: More of one variable aligns with less of another.
- The correlation coefficient (r) measures correlation direction and strength.
- The value of r ranges from -1 to 1
- If every time the value of a variable increases by a certain amount, the value of a second variable also increases by a certain amount, then the variables have a perfect positive correlation and r = 1
- If every time the value of a variable increases by a certain amount, the value of a second variable decreases by a certain amount, then the variables have a perfect negative correlation and r = −1
- If every time the value of a variable increases by a certain amount, the value of a second variable neither increases nor decreases systematically, then the variables have no correlation and r = 0
- Real-world correlations are not perfect, with exceptions affecting prediction accuracy.
- Exception size and number determine r's position between 0 and 1.
- Value of r determines the accuracy of predictions, moving from 1 to 0 as exceptions increase.
Causation
- Natural correlation: Observed in the real world and indicates variable relationships without proving causation.
- Studies reveal a correlation between child aggressiveness and media violence exposure.
- More media violence exposure aligns with more aggressive behavior.
The Third-Variable Problem: Correlation Is Not Causation
- Exposure to media violence (X) might cause aggressiveness (Y): X → Y.
- Aggressiveness (Y) might cause exposure to media violence (X): Y → X.
- A third variable (Z) might independently cause both aggressiveness and exposure to media violence: Z → X & Y.
- Third-variable problem: Natural correlation between X and Y doesn't confirm a causal relationship due to potential influence from a third variable.
Experimentation: Establishing Causation
- Experimentation: Establishes causal relationships between variables.
- Manipulation and random assignment eliminate possible correlation causes.
- Manipulation: Actively changing the value of a variable to determine its causal impact.
- Rather than observing natural correlations, experiments manipulate one variable and measure another.
- Exposure is manipulated by providing children with violent or nonviolent video games creating a violent exposure condition and a nonviolent exposure condition.
- Aggressiveness is measured by observing behaviors such as pushing to the front of a line or opinions on animal cruelty
- Comparing aggressiveness measurements across conditions assesses the impact of media violence exposure.
- If aggressiveness is measured through the children’s actions, measurement error could be introduced
- Experimentation allows the establishment of causal relationships between variables.
- Manipulate: Experimenters control the independent variable creating at least two conditions.
- Measure: experimenters measure the dependent variable.
- Compare: Experimenters compare the dependent variable values across conditions.
Random Assignment: Making Sure Conditions Differ in Just One Way
- Self-selection causes the indepedent variable to potentially be reliant on other factors
- Random assignment: Assigning participants to conditions by chance.
- Random assignment leads to equal groups, eliminating third-variable concerns.
- Random assignment ensures any observed dependent variable differences are due to independent variable manipulation.
Statistical Testing: Making Sure Conditions Don’t Differ by Chance
- Random assignment may occasionally lead to unequal mean children so it may fail.
- Statistical significance is determined with less than a 5% chance that the results were due to dumb luck
- This is also known as p < .05
- Many things that occur can be chalked up to dumb luck.
Drawing Conclusions
- Internal validity: Allows causal relationship establishment within an experiment.
- Conclusions must acknowledge operational definitions, study population, and likelihood.
- “It is likely that media violence as we defined that variable caused aggressiveness as we defined that variable in the people we studied.”
The Representativeness Restriction: “As We Defined That Variable …”
- Results are heavily dependent on variable operational definitions.
- External validity: Variables are defined representatively, aligning with real-world definitions.
- External validity is important is the end goal of the experiement aligns with real world concerns.
- Theories and hypotheses should inform experiment design, not everyday life replication.
The Generalizability Restriction: “In the People We Studied …”
- Case method: Gathering data by studying a single individual.
- Population size is signified by the uppercase letter N
- Sample size is signified by the lowercase letter n
- 0 < n < N
- Psychologists try to use the largest samples possible even though in real life there are limitations with time, access to participants and funds.
- Random sampling: Ensuring every population member has an equal chance of sample inclusion to draw correlations .
- Random sampling helps create generalized theories
- Nonrandom samples are a common occurance in psychology experiments because there are often limitations or the sample is not required
- Representative sample is a standard consideration in any study
The Reliability Restriction: “It Is Likely That …”
- Replication: Repeating procedures with a new sample from the same population.
- Reports exists of experiments being unable to replicate the result suggesting a fluke
- There is not data to suggest the real data replication rate
Type I and Type II Errors
- Type I error: Concluding a causal relationship exists when it doesn't (false positive).
- Type II error: Concluding a causal relationship doesn't exist when it does (false negative).
- Reducing one error type increases the likelihood of the other.
- Psychologists balance minimizing error risks based on the specific situation.
- Even with the best evidence, conclusions are about likelihood, not certainty.
- Replication strengthens confidence in causal relationships.
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Description
This covers the basic principles of correlation vs. causation. It explains the importance of statistics versus summaries. It also goes over limitations of drawing conclusions from data.
