2.3 Which Tasks Are Cost-Effective to Automate with Computer Vision?

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Questions and Answers

What is one reason why foundation models are unlikely to completely replace specialized models?

  • Foundation models require specialized expertise to operate, while specialized models are more user-friendly.
  • Foundation models are too expensive to train, while specialized models are more cost-effective.
  • The data required to train foundation models is often sensitive or proprietary. (correct)
  • Foundation models are not as efficient as specialized models.

What is a major hurdle in the advancement of foundation models, as discussed in the text?

  • The increasing cost of training foundation models. (correct)
  • Competition from emerging technologies like quantum computing.
  • Shortage of skilled engineers for model development.
  • Lack of adequate computational power for training.

The industrial parts manufacture case study is used to illustrate which point?

  • Foundation models are not effective for identifying specific objects.
  • The data used to train foundation models is often incomplete and inaccurate.
  • Specialized models are better suited for tasks involving proprietary data.
  • Foundation model providers lack access to sufficient proprietary data to accurately label all products. (correct)

What is one reason why language seems to generalize across contexts more readily than vision?

<p>Language data available for training is generally more comprehensive than image data. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The text suggests that the progress of foundation models might be hindered by which of the following?

<p>The escalating costs associated with training and improving foundation models. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one key difference between foundation models for language and vision, as discussed in the text?

<p>Language models tend to generalize across contexts more effectively than vision models. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements is TRUE about the economic model of AI adoption as discussed in the text?

<p>It suggests that the use of AI will be driven by cost-effectiveness. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential reason for the difference in generalization capabilities between language and vision models, as suggested in the text?

<p>The amount of available language data is more comprehensive than the amount of image data. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methodologies focus on the task-based approach to measuring job automation risk?

<p>Arntz et al.(2016) (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which methodology assesses the level of automation integrated into the tasks and responsibilities of a specific job?

<p>O*NET Degree of Automation (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which methodology leverages technology patents to assess the exposure of occupations to specific technologies?

<p>Webb (2019) - % Software Exposure (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which methodology focuses on the suitability of tasks for machine learning within job categories?

<p>Brynjolfsson et al.(2018) (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methodologies directly considers AI advancements in its assessment of occupational automation risk?

<p>Felten et al.(2018) (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methodologies relies on subjective assessments in its evaluation of automation risk?

<p>Frey and Osborne (2017) (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methodologies utilizes data on compensation in U.S. businesses to assess automation risk?

<p>Our study - % Computer Vision Exposure (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following methodologies is most focused on the potential impact of AI on the workforce?

<p>Felten et al.(2018) (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these factors is NOT discussed as contributing to the increasing attractiveness of AI economics?

<p>Higher demand for AI-powered solutions (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the main reason for the conclusion that job losses from AI computer vision will be gradual rather than abrupt?

<p>The rate of job churn in the market is already high, making the impact of AI less noticeable. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The text mentions a "minimum viable scale" for AI deployments. What is the significance of this concept?

<p>It refers to the point at which the cost of using AI becomes comparable to the cost of human labor. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a key question explored in the task-based approach described in the text?

<p>Will users accept the outcomes produced by AI systems for this task? (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

According to the passage, what is the main factor driving the economic attractiveness of AI systems?

<p>The relatively low cost of deploying and maintaining AI systems. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of these techniques is mentioned as being central to the progress of AI since 2012?

<p>Deep Learning (DL) (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes the primary focus of the paper as it is described in the opening paragraph?

<p>To explore the economic factors influencing the adoption of AI. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of the text, what is the main purpose of the 35 case studies mentioned?

<p>To gather data on the costs of deploying and operating AI systems. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the projected compound annual growth rate for computer vision through 2042?

<p>10% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of vision tasks currently provides an economic advantage at the firm level?

<p>23% (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is likely needed for computer vision to successfully replace human labor?

<p>A sharp reduction in cost (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the document suggest about the future of AI deployment costs?

<p>They are expected to become cheaper (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant barrier to AI-as-a-service deployments?

<p>High customization costs (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does platformization refer to in the context of this document?

<p>The availability of AI as a service on cloud platforms (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When is computer vision projected to be economically feasible for most applications according to the simulation results?

<p>By 2042 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What implication does the need for fine-tuning AI have on its deployment?

<p>It increases costs and affects proliferation (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is one main shortcoming addressed by the authors in AI exposure models?

<p>Understanding the performance required of automated systems (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which component is modeled to understand the deployment of AI systems?

<p>The cost of building AI systems (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the hypothetical example, what task are bakers performing that automation could potentially replace?

<p>Visually checking the quality of ingredients (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of worker compensation exposed to AI was found to be cost-effective for firms to automate?

<p>23% (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why might a small bakery choose not to automate the task of checking food quality?

<p>The cost of AI systems outweighs labor savings (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the hypothetical annual labor savings from automating the food quality checking task in the bakery example?

<p>$14,000 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is a factor in determining whether AI adoption is economically attractive?

<p>The upfront costs of AI systems (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What conclusion do the authors reach regarding human workers in firms without scale?

<p>They are more economically attractive for firms. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the potential impact of AI task automation on job destruction?

<p>It is unclear if job destruction will increase substantially. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do foundation models contribute to the automation of tasks?

<p>They help reduce costs by requiring less fine-tuning for tasks. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What characteristic is essential for foundation models as defined by Bommasani et al. (2021)?

<p>They need to be versatile for a wide range of tasks. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What role do improvements in foundation models have on the cost of automation?

<p>They can make implementations more economically-attractive. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which type of automation is expected to partially substitute traditional automation?

<p>AI task automation within specific traditional sectors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why are the economic models for predicting the cost of computer vision relevant?

<p>They assume the existence of a foundation model for fine-tuning. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential consequence of better foundation models on task replacement?

<p>They could enable the replacement of tasks without fine-tuning. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is suggested about the relationship between AI and traditional automation?

<p>AI and traditional automation can coexist and influence each other. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Probability of Computerization (auto)

A measure of the likelihood that a job can be automated, based on the combination of occupational skills and subjective assessments of automation levels.

Job Automatibility Risk (auto2)

An assessment of job automation risk in OECD countries, using a task-based approach.

ONET Degree of Automation (ONET Deg.Auto.)

A measure of automation integrated into the tasks and responsibilities of a specific job or occupation.

Suitability for Machine Learning (SML)

Estimates how suitable tasks within different job categories are for machine learning.

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AI Advancements and Occupational Abilities (AI2)

Connects AI advancements with occupational abilities, aggregating them at the occupation level.

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Percentage of AI Exposure (% AI Exposure)

Quantifies the exposure of occupations to AI technologies by comparing technology patents with occupation tasks.

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Percentage of Robot Exposure (% Robot Exposure)

Quantifies the exposure of occupations to robots by comparing technology patents with occupation tasks.

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Percentage of Software Exposure (% Software Exposure)

Quantifies the exposure of occupations to software by comparing technology patents with occupation tasks.

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Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

The rate at which a value increases over time, expressed as a percentage.

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AI-as-a-Platform

A software platform that provides tools and services to build and deploy AI applications.

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Fine-tuning

The process of adapting a pre-trained AI model to perform a specific task.

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Economically Feasible Computer Vision

The ability to use computer vision technology effectively in a business environment.

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AI Automation

The use of AI systems to automate tasks that were previously performed by humans.

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AI Deployment Costs

The cost of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems.

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AI-as-a-Service Scalability

The ability of AI-as-a-service platforms to handle increasing workloads and user demands.

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Technological Change Impact on AI Costs

The impact of technological advancements on the cost of AI systems.

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Minimum Viable Scale

The minimum number of tasks or operations required for an AI-powered solution to be economically more appealing than employing a human worker.

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Economics of AI Automation

The cost of deploying an AI system decreases as the scale of its deployment increases.

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Exposure (in AI Automation)

The possibility of developing an AI model to perform a specific task.

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Economically Attractive Automation

The comparison of the cost of using AI to perform a task vs the cost of human labor for the same task.

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Making AI Automation More Attractive

How AI automation can be made more economically viable by reducing deployment costs or increasing the scale of deployments.

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AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS)

A service that delivers AI capabilities as a subscription, allowing users to access and utilize AI models without needing to build and maintain their own AI infrastructure.

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AI Computer Vision

The process of training and using AI models for tasks that involve understanding and interpreting visual information.

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Job Churn

The rate at which jobs are created and lost in the economy.

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AI System Cost

The cost of developing, deploying, and maintaining an AI system is a crucial factor in determining if automating a task is economically feasible.

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AI System Performance

The ability of an AI system to perform a task to a level comparable to human performance is essential for economic evaluation.

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Task Isolation

Prioritizing tasks that can be easily isolated from other parts of a process is essential for efficient automation.

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AI Exposure

The percentage of a worker's tasks that can be automated using AI is not always a reliable indicator of overall economic feasibility.

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Economic Feasibility of Automation

The economic attractiveness of AI automation depends on factors like task difficulty, AI system cost, and labor cost.

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Scale and Automation

Companies that have limited size or scale may find it less economically viable to automate tasks due to the high cost of AI systems.

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Computer Vision in Bakeries

The use of computer vision for automation, specifically in the context of food quality inspection in bakeries, highlights the challenges and economic considerations.

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Limitations of AI Automation

The research suggests that a significant portion of worker tasks may have limited economic incentive for automation due to the cost and performance requirements of current AI systems.

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Foundation models

Large and general-purpose AI models trained on vast amounts of data, aiming to perform various tasks with a single model.

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Specialized models

Models designed for specific tasks, like medical image analysis or object detection in a factory.

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Data availability

The amount of data available for training AI models. Limited data can restrict a model's ability to generalize to new situations.

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Slowing progress

The rate at which progress is made in improving AI models. Progress can slow down due to factors like limited data and high costs.

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Generalization

The ability of an AI model to apply knowledge learned from one task to a different, but related, task.

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Model training

The process of training AI models, which can become increasingly expensive as model size and complexity increase.

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Economic model of AI adoption

The idea that AI adoption follows a pattern where initial costs are high, but decrease over time, leading to wider use and more efficient operations.

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Generative language models

AI models designed to generate human-like text, translating input text into a different format or creating original content.

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AI automation's effect on job destruction

The idea that AI automation, while potentially increasing job destruction, might also substitute for traditional automation, leading to a smaller net effect on employment.

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Cost of Automation

The cost associated with adapting (fine-tuning) a pre-existing foundation model to a specific task.

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Automation Outside Computer Vision

The study of how AI techniques, like language modeling, can be applied to automating tasks beyond the scope of computer vision.

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Foundation Model Improvements and Automation

The idea that improvements in foundation models can reduce automation costs by requiring less fine-tuning or even eliminating the need for it entirely.

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Economic Implications of Foundation Models

The potential impact of foundation model improvements on reducing the cost of AI implementation, making it more economically viable.

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Data Requirements for Fine-Tuning

The potential impact of foundation model improvements on reducing the amount of data needed for fine-tuning, making automation more efficient.

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Study Notes

Executive Summary

  • The study examines the cost-effectiveness of automating tasks using computer vision
  • Current costs make most vision tasks unattractive to automate for U.S. businesses
  • Only 23% of current worker wages for vision tasks are considered cost-effective to automate

AI Task Automation Model

  • Presents an end-to-end model that estimates the technical performance needed for a task, the characteristics of an AI system for that performance, and the economic feasibility of an automated system
  • Focuses on computer vision due to the advanced cost modeling

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

  • The study concludes that only 23% of worker compensation related to vision tasks are cost-effective to automate at current costs
  • This slow automation rate can be accelerated by decreases in AI system costs or use of AI-as-a-service platforms with larger scale

Methodological Approach

  • Evaluates a task-based approach to automation (Autor et al., 2003) by focusing on task exposure and economic attractiveness
  • Surveys workers familiar with tasks to determine system requirements needed for automation
  • Models the cost of building AI systems that meet the required performance level
  • Models the economic attractiveness of AI adoption using cost comparisons of human and AI system implementation costs

Exposure to Computer Vision (T₁)

  • Uses the O*NET database to identify vision tasks based on direct work activities (DWAs)
  • Assumes that task structure remains the same during AI deployment

Economic Attractiveness

  • Considers the benefits and costs of AI deployment compared to human labor
  • Focuses on models with AI capabilities equivalent to human workers performing those tasks (using a Turing Trap methodology, Brynolfsson, 2022)
  • Economic attractiveness is largely determined by the relative costs involved in implementing AI systems vs human labor costs

The cost of Computer Vision Systems (CM)

  • Computes cost components including: fixed costs (implementation and maintenance), performance-dependent costs (training and data), and scale-dependent costs (running costs)
  • Uses a model developed by Thompson et al (2021, 2022, 2024) for computing cost variations based on tasks’ accuracy requirements

Cost of Human Labor (CH)

  • Computes labor costs for a given task based on available wage statistics
  • Assumes a fixed wage-to-compensation ratio and a consistent time frame for system deployment

Firm-level Results

  • Finds a significant difference between vision tasks that are exposed to AI and those that are economically attractive to automate for firms
  • Only 8% of jobs involve tasks that firms find cost-effective to replace with AI vision systems
  • Highlights the importance of considering both technical feasibility and economic factors when assessing the feasibility of AI adoption

Sensitivity Analysis

  • Examines the robustness of the results to variations in cost parameters, system benefits, and scenarios involving lower costs (bare-bones)
  • Demonstrates that exponential cost decreases are necessary for linear increases in desirable automation task shares associated with vision

Paths to Al Proliferation

  • Explores strategies for increasing AI's economic practicality: increased deployment scales, or decreasing development costs.
  • Examines how AI-as-a-service platforms could facilitate broader automation adoption

AI Deployment Changes Over Time

  • Simulation shows that even with substantial cost decreases, task automation rates will likely remain below overall job destruction rates.
  • Suggests that cost reduction via technological innovation, not just larger scales of implementation, will be a key component of widespread AI proliferation

Foundation Models and Alternative Techniques

  • Explains how the findings regarding computer vision relate to foundation and other AI methods
  • Discusses how data availability and ongoing model improvements influence scaling-up
  • Highlights limitations, such as lack of generalizability, cost of more complex tasks, and potential need for further research in scaling laws to achieve more precise calculations

Task Data and Equivalence

  • Indicates methodological limitations in using O*NET data for automation calculations.
  • Discusses complexities of occupations and tasks' similar effects across the economy, and difficulty assigning values to tasks, especially at a broad scale.

Conclusion

  • Shows that while using computer vision is technically feasible for numerous tasks, the economic viability to replace human labor is not cost effective for the majority of firm-level implementations
  • Indicates the need for continued cost reductions or increased platformization, or policy interventions, to support broad-scale AI adoption

Additional Considerations

  • Multiple references are used to support the study's findings
  • The study provides a thorough examination of the economic factors influencing the decision of implementing AI automation in various tasks

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