Correlation vs. Causation in Social Science

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Questions and Answers

What does passing the marshmallow test supposedly indicate about a child?

A child's wealth

A child's physical health

A child's ability to delay gratification (correct)

A child's intelligence level

What alternative explanation is suggested regarding long-term outcomes associated with the marshmallow test?

The school environment

The child's social circle

The parenting style (correct)

The child's favorite food

What was the sample size of the original marshmallow test studies?

Fewer than 90 children (correct)

More than 100 children

Exactly 90 children

Less than 50 children

In what year was the original marshmallow test conducted?

1972 Signup and view all the answers

Which journal published the original study of the marshmallow test?

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Signup and view all the answers

What is the main premise of the marshmallow test?

It assesses children's patience and reward delay. Signup and view all the answers

Which factor mentioned is commonly thought to contribute to a child's academic success later in life?

Ability to delay gratification Signup and view all the answers

What criticism is implied about the conclusions drawn from the marshmallow test?

The results may not account for socio-economic factors. Signup and view all the answers

What is the definition of bias as discussed in the context of scientific research?

The tendency to interpret information in a way that maintains prior conclusions. Signup and view all the answers

What does confirmation bias lead individuals to do when presented with new information?

It causes individuals to disregard information that conflicts with their beliefs. Signup and view all the answers

What is survivorship bias?

The tendency to focus on the successes while ignoring failures. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements best reflects the implications of biases in scientific data collection?

Bias can lead to distorted perceptions and incorrect conclusions. Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to understand different types of biases in scientific research?

Awareness of biases assists in developing more reliable data and conclusions. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following biases is characterized by the exclusion of data from non-successful entities?

Survivorship Bias Signup and view all the answers

How can biases affect decision-making processes in scientific research?

They can introduce subjective interpretations that skew results. Signup and view all the answers

Which cognitive bias is defined as the tendency to reject evidence that contradicts personal beliefs?

Confirmation Bias Signup and view all the answers

What defines a confounding variable in a study?

It is a variable whose effects cannot be distinguished from other variables. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following best describes a lurking variable?

A variable that influences the relationship between explanatory and response variables but is not included in the study. Signup and view all the answers

Which scenario exemplifies confounding?

Analyzing the effect of diet on weight loss while ignoring exercise habits. Signup and view all the answers

What does repeatability ensure in scientific research?

The same team obtains consistent results using the same setup. Signup and view all the answers

Replicability in scientific studies refers to which aspect?

Achieving similar results across studies conducted by different teams. Signup and view all the answers

Which term refers to obtaining consistent results using the same input data across various analyses?

Reproducibility Signup and view all the answers

What might happen if confounding variables are not controlled in a study?

The relationships among variables may be misinterpreted. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements is true about lurking and confounding variables?

Lurking variables may influence relationships but are not accounted for in the study. Signup and view all the answers

What is a significant aspect of Watts and his colleagues' revised experimental design?

They controlled for certain factors that influenced results. Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following is NOT a criterion for establishing a causal relationship between two variables?

Coincidence Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary characteristic of a confounding variable?

It is included in the study but not clearly separated. Signup and view all the answers

What must be ruled out to establish non-spuriousness in a causal relationship?

The influence of rival explanations Signup and view all the answers

In the context of scientific research, what does co-variation imply?

Changes in one variable must lead to a change in the other. Signup and view all the answers

Which factor did Watts and his colleagues control for to analyze children's ability to delay gratification?

Household income Signup and view all the answers

What distinguishes a lurking variable from a confounding variable?

A lurking variable is not included in the study. Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to establish a rationale in a research study?

To provide a compelling explanation for observed relationships. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Ensuring Good Science: Correlation vs. Causation

The marshmallow test, a famous social science experiment, involves presenting a child with a marshmallow and offering a second if they can resist eating the first for 15 minutes.
The child's ability to delay gratification is correlated with future success, but this correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation. Other factors might influence both characteristics.
The original marshmallow test had limitations, like a small, non-representative sample, potentially skewing results.
Later studies used larger, more representative samples, accounting for factors like income and parental education, to better evaluate the correlation between early delay of gratification and future outcomes.
A change in the independent variable (e.g., the delay of gratification ability) may not always produce a change in the dependent variable (e.g., future success).
Other variables (lurking or confounding) might actually cause or influence both variables, creating a false impression of a direct relationship. For example, in the marshmallow test, family affluence may play a more important role than delayed gratification in determining future success.

Lurking and Confounding Variables

The "third-variable problem" arises when an unobserved variable impacts both observed variables, mistaking a correlation for causation.
Examples of this third-variable problem include the correlation between TV viewing and junk food consumption (a third variable, a sedentary lifestyle, might be influencing both).
A confounding variable is a variable not initially considered in a study that affects the relationship between the variables of interest.
A lurking variable is a confounding variable not included in a study.
These third variables can bias results, and the effects of these biases must be adjusted or controlled.

The Three Rs of Scientific Study Design

Repeatability: A single team achieving consistent results following the same procedure, in a similar setting.
Replicability: Different teams achieving consistent results with the same question, using consistent methods (but potentially different sample groups).
Reproducibility: Different teams consistently generating the same results, even using different methods or equipment but with the same input data and codes.

Bias in Research

Bias refers to systematic errors that influence how one perceives or interprets something.
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs.
Survivorship bias is a logical error where one focuses only on those elements that have survived some process, overlooking those that didn't. This can lead to a skewed or incomplete understanding of the situation.

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Description

Explore the nuances of correlation and causation through the lens of the marshmallow test. This quiz examines how early delay of gratification correlates with future success and discusses the limitations of initial studies. Delve into the implications of independent and dependent variables, as well as confounding factors that complicate these relationships.