Correlation and Regression

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Questions and Answers

A country with a high GDP decides to invest significantly in improving its educational infrastructure and teacher training programs. What is the most likely long-term economic effect of this policy?

  • A decrease in the country's potential GDP due to the immediate costs.
  • An increase in the country's potential GDP due to a more skilled and productive workforce. (correct)
  • A shift towards an economy based on natural resources rather than human capital.
  • No significant change in the long-term GDP as education is not directly productive.

If a country experiences a surge in technological innovation, how would this likely affect its aggregate supply curve?

  • The short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve would shift to the left.
  • The long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve would shift to the left.
  • Both the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) and the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curves would shift to the right. (correct)
  • The aggregate supply curves would remain unchanged as technology only affects aggregate demand.

Which of the following scenarios would be most likely to cause stagflation in an economy?

  • Increased automation in manufacturing leading to higher productivity and lower costs.
  • A significant decrease in government spending on infrastructure projects.
  • A supply shock, such as a sudden increase in the price of oil, combined with contractionary monetary policy. (correct)
  • A rapid increase in consumer spending coupled with low unemployment.

A country removes tariffs and quotas on imported goods to foster free trade. What is a likely short-term consequence of this policy change?

<p>A decrease in domestic prices of goods due to increased competition. (C)</p>
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If a central bank decides to increase the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks, what effect would this likely have on the money supply and lending activity?

<p>Decrease in the money supply and decrease in lending. (D)</p>
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What is the primary goal of contractionary fiscal policy, and which action exemplifies it?

<p>Reducing inflation; increasing taxes (D)</p>
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Suppose a country is experiencing a recession. Which combination of fiscal and monetary policies would be most effective in stimulating economic activity?

<p>Increased government spending and decreased interest rates. (D)</p>
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If a country's unemployment rate is high and inflation is low, what type of policy would be most appropriate to improve its economic conditions?

<p>Expansionary fiscal policy to increase aggregate demand. (B)</p>
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How does an increase in government spending, financed by borrowing, potentially affect interest rates and private investment in the economy?

<p>Increases interest rates, potentially crowding out private investment. (D)</p>
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What role do automatic stabilizers play in moderating economic fluctuations?

<p>They automatically adjust government spending and taxation to counteract economic fluctuations. (D)</p>
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How would a sudden and significant decrease in consumer confidence likely affect the aggregate demand curve?

<p>Shift the aggregate demand curve to the left. (A)</p>
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If a country's central bank lowers its target inflation rate, what adjustments might it make to its monetary policy tools, and what would be the expected impact on the economy?

<p>Increase interest rates; slow down economic growth. (C)</p>
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A country decides to peg its currency to a stronger foreign currency. What are potential benefits and risks associated with this decision?

<p>Reduced exchange rate volatility; loss of monetary policy independence. (C)</p>
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In an open economy, how do changes in the exchange rate affect the trade balance, assuming the Marshall-Lerner condition holds?

<p>A currency depreciation improves the trade balance. (A)</p>
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What are the key differences between demand-pull and cost-push inflation, and what are their typical causes?

<p>Demand-pull inflation is caused by increased aggregate demand; cost-push inflation is caused by decreased aggregate supply. (C)</p>
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How might quantitative easing (QE) by a central bank influence borrowing costs and investment in the economy?

<p>QE increases the money supply, lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment. (D)</p>
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What are the potential effects of a large influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) on a developing country's economy?

<p>Increased technological transfer, higher productivity growth, and improved infrastructure. (A)</p>
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How does an aging population structure impact a country's labor force participation rate and potential GDP?

<p>Decreases the labor force participation rate and decreases potential GDP. (C)</p>
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What is the Laffer Curve, and what does it suggest about the relationship between tax rates and government revenue?

<p>It suggests there is an optimal tax rate that maximizes government revenue; beyond this rate, higher taxes may reduce revenue. (C)</p>
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Assuming that the expectations-augmented Phillips curve is accurate, what is the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, and how does it change in the long run?

<p>An inverse short-run tradeoff; no stable long-run tradeoff as expectations adjust. (D)</p>
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Flashcards

What is a lease?

A legal agreement granting temporary use of property or assets.

Who is a lessee?

The individual or entity granted the rights to use property under a lease.

Who is a lessor?

The individual or entity granting the rights to use property to a lessee.

What is a finance lease?

A lease that transfers substantially all the risks and rewards of ownership to the lessee.

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What is an operating lease?

A lease that does not transfer substantially all the risks and rewards of ownership to the lessee.

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What are minimum lease payments?

The minimum lease payments the lessee is required to make over the lease term.

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What are the net investment in the lease?

The present value of the minimum lease payments.

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What is a bargain purchase option?

An option allowing the lessee to purchase the leased asset at a bargain price.

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What is the unguaranteed residual value?

The estimated fair value of the asset at the end of the lease term.

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What is the lease term?

The period for which the lessee has a contractual right to use the asset.

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What is a sales-type lease?

A lease that meets specific criteria and is classified as a sale by the lessor.

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What is a direct financing lease?

A finance lease in which the lessor's profit is spread over the lease term.

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What are leasehold improvements?

Leases involving real estate, equipment, or other property.

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What is the discount rate?

The rate used to discount future lease payments.

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What is an initial direct cost?

A lease payment made at the beginning of the lease term.

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Study Notes

  • Correlation represents the degree of a linear relationship between two scale variables.
  • It is used when you want to understand the strength and direction of a relationship between two variables, such as height and weight.
  • Regression is used to predict the value of one scale variable based on the value of one or more other variables.
  • It helps understand how much the dependent variable changes for every unit change in the independent variable(s).

Correlation Coefficient (r)

  • The correlation coefficient, denoted as r, is a measure of the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables.
  • Ranges from -1.0 to +1.0.
  • The sign of r indicates the direction of the relationship: a positive value means a positive relationship, and a negative value means a negative relationship.
  • The absolute value of r indicates the strength of the relationship.
    • 0 indicates no linear relationship.
    • 1 indicates a perfect linear relationship.

Types of Relationships

  • Positive Relationship:
    • Indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable also tends to increase.
    • A correlation coefficient near +1.0 indicates a strong positive relationship.
  • Negative Relationship:
    • Indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable tends to decrease.
    • A correlation coefficient near -1.0 indicates a strong negative relationship.
  • No Relationship:
    • Indicates that there is no linear association between the two variables.
    • A correlation coefficient near 0 indicates no relationship.

Simple Linear Regression

  • A statistical method used to model the relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
  • The goal is to find the best-fitting straight line (regression line) that describes how the dependent variable changes as the independent variable changes.
  • The equation for simple linear regression is:
    • Y = bX + a
      • Y is the predicted value of the dependent variable.
      • X is the value of the independent variable.
      • b is the slope of the regression line.
      • a is the Y-intercept (the value of Y when X = 0).

Multiple Regression

  • An extension of simple linear regression that allows you to predict a dependent variable based on multiple independent variables.
  • The equation for multiple regression is:
    • Y = b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn + a
      • Y is the predicted value of the dependent variable.
      • X1, X2, ..., Xn are the values of the independent variables.
      • b1, b2, ..., bn are the coefficients for each independent variable.
      • a is the Y-intercept.

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