Nuclear Crisis Case Study

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Questions and Answers

What is a key distinction made by Lebow and Stein regarding nuclear deterrence?

The strategy of nuclear deterrence versus the reality of nuclear deterrence (correct)

Nuclear deterrence is more effective than nuclear compellence

Nuclear deterrence is more effective in crises with competing objectives

Nuclear deterrence is only effective in crises with low stakes

According to Lebow and Stein, what type of crisis may arise when deterrence or compellence strategies are used?

A crisis that is easily resolvable

A crisis with low stakes

A crisis with competing objectives (correct)

A crisis that is solely threat-based

What is the significance of retaliatory capability in nuclear deterrence?

It is only important in crises with high stakes

It is a type of threat-based strategy

It is a type of compellence strategy

It is a key component of a effective deterrent strategy (correct)

What is the main difference between deterrence and compellence?

Deterrence is a strategy to prevent an attack, while compellence is a strategy to force an action Signup and view all the answers

What is the role of the balance of resolve in nuclear crises?

It determines the credibility of a threat Signup and view all the answers

According to Betts, what is the role of nuclear weapons in international crises?

They have a limited impact on crisis behavior Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary distinction between deterrence and compellence in the context of nuclear threats?

Deterrence aims to prevent an action, while compellence aims to reverse an action Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary goal of a retaliatory capability in the context of nuclear deterrence?

To signal resolve and deter an attack Signup and view all the answers

What is the key concept underlying the 'balance of terror' approach to nuclear deterrence?

Mutually assured destruction deters states from taking action Signup and view all the answers

How might a state signal its resolve in a nuclear crisis?

All of the above Signup and view all the answers

What is the key difference between general deterrence and immediate deterrence?

General deterrence is a long-term strategy, while immediate deterrence is a short-term tactic Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary advantage of a Risk Minimizing approach to nuclear deterrence?

It reduces the risk of accidental escalation Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary purpose of a nuclear threat in the context of international relations?

To deter an opponent from taking a certain action Signup and view all the answers

What is the key difference between deterrence and compellence in the context of nuclear threats?

Deterrence is a threat to prevent an action, while compellence is a threat to compel an action Signup and view all the answers

What is the term for the ability of an opponent to retaliate with nuclear weapons?

Retaliatory capability Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following crises is an example of a nuclear threat made by the Soviet Union?

1956 Suez Crisis Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary factor that affects the success of a nuclear threat?

The resolve of the leadership of the threatening country Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the 'madman theory' in the context of nuclear deterrence, and how did Nixon utilize it?

The 'madman theory' is a strategy where a leader deliberately promotes an image of being unpredictable and willing to take extreme risks to deter opponents. Nixon used this strategy to make the Soviets believe he was 'out of control' and might do anything, thereby increasing the credibility of his nuclear threats. Signup and view all the answers

What are the primary factors that affect the success of a nuclear threat, and how do they interact with each other?

The primary factors that affect the success of a nuclear threat include resolve, forces/capabilities, issue at stake, general fear of nuclear war, other side's capability, and SIOP. These factors interact with each other in complex ways, with the relative importance of each factor depending on the specific context of the crisis. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the Space Race in the context of the arms race between the US and the USSR during the 1950s and 1960s?

The Space Race was a symbol of technological superiority and a indicator of the capabilities of each side's missile programs. The US and USSR used the Space Race to demonstrate their ability to launch and deploy nuclear weapons, thereby contributing to the escalation of the arms race. Signup and view all the answers

What is the difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, and how do these distinctions affect the use of nuclear threats in international relations?

Tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield, while strategic nuclear weapons are designed for use against an enemy's homeland. The distinction between these types of weapons affects the use of nuclear threats, as strategic weapons are more likely to be used for deterrence and compellence, while tactical weapons are more likely to be used for battlefield purposes. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the concept of 'compatibility of interests' in the context of nuclear deterrence, and how does it affect the use of nuclear threats?

The concept of 'compatibility of interests' refers to the idea that the interests of two parties are not mutually exclusive. In the context of nuclear deterrence, compatibility of interests is important because it can affect the credibility of nuclear threats and the likelihood of escalation. Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the 'ability to communicate' in the context of nuclear crises, and how does it affect the use of nuclear threats?

The ability to communicate is critical in nuclear crises, as it allows parties to clarify their intentions and avoid misunderstandings. Effective communication can reduce the risk of escalation and increase the credibility of nuclear threats. Signup and view all the answers

What was the nature of the missile gap controversy in the late 1950s and early 1960s, according to Kennedy and others?

The missile gap controversy was ambiguous, unclear whether or not there was a gap in ICBMs between the US and USSR. Signup and view all the answers

What is implied by the concept of a 'rough balance of strategic forces' between the superpowers in the early 1970s?

Neither side had the capability for a disarming first strike, and each would have expected to suffer devastating retaliation if it launched nuclear war. Signup and view all the answers

What was the primary advantage of the US's ICBMs in terms of range and targetability?

They were capable of hitting targets almost anywhere within the Soviet Union from American soil. Signup and view all the answers

Why was the alert of U.S. conventional forces in the Mediterranean likely not decisive in a crisis?

It was unclear which nation would have come out ahead in a naval battle in the Mediterranean. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary factor that determines the success of a nuclear threat in a crisis?

The credibility of the threat, which is influenced by the perceived balance of resolve and the capabilities of the opposing sides. Signup and view all the answers

What is the key difference between the US and USSR's approach to nuclear deterrence in the early 1970s?

Neither side had a significant advantage in terms of nuclear capabilities, and both sides had a reciprocal fear of nuclear annihilation. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary goal of nuclear weapons in the context of international crises, according to Betts?

To gain leverage in a crisis, although their actual utility is limited. Signup and view all the answers

What is the consequence of a 'balance of terror' approach to nuclear deterrence?

A situation where both sides are deterred from launching a nuclear attack due to the fear of devastating retaliation. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Nuclear Threats and Crisis Behavior

Competition in risk-taking: willingness to risk more can lead to winning
Madman theory: deliberately promoting an image of being 'out of control' to intimidate others (e.g., Nixon)

Factors Affecting Nuclear Threats

Resolve: determination and willingness to take risks
Forces/capabilities: nuclear weapons, delivery, and conventional capability; relative or absolute capability importance
Issue at stake: whether it's worth risking nuclear war
General fear of nuclear war
Other side's capability: retaliatory capability
SIOP (plans for use)
Understanding of nuclear weapons: tactical vs. strategic; deterrence vs. compellence; past cases
Compatibility of interests: alignment of goals and values
Ability to communicate: effective communication to avoid misunderstandings
Ability to engineer a solution: finding a solution that avoids 'loss of face'

Historical Context: Nuclear Threats/Crises (1945-1961)

Berlin crisis (1948)
Korean War (1950-53)
Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-55)
Suez Crisis (1956): Soviet threat
Taiwan Straits Crisis (1958)
Berlin Crises (1958 and 1961)

Background: The Space Race (1957)

US announced plans to launch an earth-orbiting satellite (July 1955)
Soviets responded with their own plan (August 1955)

The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Crises

Why/how/under what circumstances: used nuclear threats to gain leverage in a crisis
Success: determined by various factors, including resolve, forces, and issue at stake
Nuclear weapons influence state behavior: through threats or existence, influencing crisis behavior

Key Concepts and Ideas

Deterrence vs. compellence
General deterrence vs. immediate deterrence
Reassurance
Balance of forces (power, capability) vs. balance of resolve
Risk Maximizing vs. Risk Minimizing approach

Betts, Lebow, and Stein's Arguments

Betts: role of nuclear weapons in crises
Lebow and Stein: distinguishing between strategy and reality of nuclear deterrence

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Description

Test your understanding of nuclear crisis scenarios, including the role of nuclear weapons, threat communication, and intentions behind nuclear threats. Explore how nuclear threats were used, communicated, and signalled during a crisis. Evaluate the nature of the threat and its impact on the situation.